Relocation and Mergers rumoured to be back in the news!!!

[jwikked]

Theres a massive darkhorse in terms of mergers/acquisitions/relocations.

The Brisbane Lions.

I am fully against the notion of a merger, but if GCS cannot obtain a viable footprint in the short term, it needs to be strategically evaluated, and Brisbane could potentially acquire them and make themselves the Queensland lions, playing two games a year at Metricon.

The AFL would be absolutely crazy to abandon a club in Melbourne, that will provide generational support for the game, for a club that is leaking funds and not setting themselves up for success.

Instead of the 200 million (Probably conservative) that the AFL has lost on the suns, they could have invested that into a boutique stadium in Melbourne which would be perfect for North, St.kilda, melbourne and the dogs to play at, instead of 40% filling marvel.

Now they own Marvel, a 40% full stadium isn't the nightmare it used to be. Of course there are overheads at Marvel, but you could easily stagger the staff required based on historical crowd figures between teams.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Melbourne having 9 teams in a faux national comp is a nonsense that in tough economic times is not sustainable.

A reduction to 16 teams is more viable financially and fixture wise. It would also improve quality across the comp.

Tasmania merits a team and WA probably has a case for a third team. Elimination of four Melbourne teams via relocation and amalgamation can be achieved without wrecking the Melbourne market.

Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne (only for its name), Hawthorn are locks to remain four of the five remaining. North, Carlton and St Kilda would be the first out the door. Footscray and Essendon is a toss up.

It does seem inevitable that clubs will either be moved or merged to reduce the number of Melbourne teams, even if it's not for another 10-15 years.
North and Carlton would make the most sense to merge, being so geographically close already. Melbourne and St Kilda probably the other two.

Looking further ahead, can Adelaide and Perth support a third team each?

 

[beema limapep]

It does seem inevitable that clubs will either be moved or merged to reduce the number of Melbourne teams, even if it's not for another 10-15 years.
North and Carlton would make the most sense to merge, being so geographically close already. Melbourne and St Kilda probably the other two.

Looking further ahead, can Adelaide and Perth support a third team each?

Perth possibly. Adelaide not as confident.

 

[big_e]

It does seem inevitable that clubs will either be moved or merged to reduce the number of Melbourne teams, even if it's not for another 10-15 years.
North and Carlton would make the most sense to merge, being so geographically close already. Melbourne and St Kilda probably the other two.

Looking further ahead, can Adelaide and Perth support a third team each?

I can't imagine the AFL ever creating a situation where there were more clubs outside of Victoria than inside it, tbh.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I can't imagine the AFL ever creating a situation where there were more clubs outside of Victoria than inside it, tbh.

Why?

it’s the AFL, not VFL.

 

[telsor]

Why?

it’s the AFL, not VFL.

I can see it happening some day, but as things stand,

Vic is >50% of the market,
Games in Vic put money directly into the AFLs pocket through the MCG & Docklands stadium deals.
The club/league finances are stretched due to Covid.

So the AFL wont be reducing games in Vic, or adding new clubs elsewhere anytime soon.

 

[Established1870]

Theres a massive darkhorse in terms of mergers/acquisitions/relocations.

The Brisbane Lions.

I am fully against the notion of a merger, but if GCS cannot obtain a viable footprint in the short term, it needs to be strategically evaluated, and Brisbane could potentially acquire them and make themselves the Queensland lions, playing two games a year at Metricon.

The AFL would be absolutely crazy to abandon a club in Melbourne, that will provide generational support for the game, for a club that is leaking funds and not setting themselves up for success.

Instead of the 200 million (Probably conservative) that the AFL has lost on the suns, they could have invested that into a boutique stadium in Melbourne which would be perfect for North, St.kilda, melbourne and the dogs to play at, instead of 40% filling marvel.

So the AFL get rid of a club who've been pivotal in more then one massive rights deal for the AFL and for the growing popularity of footy in QLD for a boutique stadium in Melbourne for clubs who can't fill up the most easily accessible footy ground in the country and who'd all have cost the AFL probably as much as the Suns over the years?

Yeah alright mate you do you.

 

[Stabby McGee]

So the AFL get rid of a club who've been pivotal in more then one massive rights deal for the AFL and for the growing popularity of footy in QLD for a boutique stadium in Melbourne for clubs who can't fill up the most easily accessible footy ground in the country and who'd all have cost the AFL probably as much as the Suns over the years?

Yeah alright mate you do you.

Every team in every sport has died on the Gold Coast. What makes you think the bean counters at AFL house won’t one day make the boffins at AFL house throw up their hands and say ‘ok ok. How do we fix this mess?’

 

[Established1870]

Every team in every sport has died on the Gold Coast. What makes you think the bean counters at AFL house won’t one day make the boffins at AFL house throw up their hands and say ‘ok ok. How do we fix this mess?’

Their NBL teams died because the NBL went to s**t both times after they entered. Gold Coast United got booted out of the A-League solely because of Palmer and without him they're actually on track to coming back in. Most of their rugby clubs came in during the SL War and look at how that turned out for the clubs in Rugby League. The Titans are s**t house but in saying that half the NRL could fold tomorrow because of how badly the clubs and league itself are mismanaged so singling them out is a stupid exercise.

Can this bullshit about GC being a sporting graveyard just die in a hole? Almost every professional sporting club up there that's died has done so because of things not entirely in their control.

And I'd wager the AFL are more likely to try and make a Victorian club relocate/merge/fold then kill off the Suns or Giants. It's a stupid point whenever people bring them up as this great failure when they were brought in to help grow the game in QLD (which they've done big time) and help the AFL get massive TV deals by having a game a week in QLD.

 

[Stabby McGee]

Their NBL teams died because the NBL went to sh*t both times after they entered. Gold Coast United got booted out of the A-League solely because of Palmer and without him they're actually on track to coming back in. Most of their rugby clubs came in during the SL War and look at how that turned out for the clubs in Rugby League. The Titans are sh*t house but in saying that half the NRL could fold tomorrow because of how badly the clubs and league itself are mismanaged so singling them out is a stupid exercise.

Can this bullshit about GC being a sporting graveyard just die in a hole? Almost every professional sporting club up there that's died has done so because of things not entirely in their control.

And I'd wager the AFL are more likely to try and make a Victorian club relocate/merge/fold then kill off the Suns or Giants. It's a stupid point whenever people bring them up as this great failure when they were brought in to help grow the game in QLD (which they've done big time) and help the AFL get massive TV deals by having a game a week in QLD.

It’s a lot of uh huh stuff. Everything died coz the dog ate their homework. But yet the powerhouse Suns will buck the trend. We will see, but I tend to believe in the trends of history rather than the wishful thinking of you and the inept AFL house regime.
You may be right, but I’m not holding my breath

 

[Engimal v3]

Hey RooHal, why are North in trouble? Because that vibe is so persistent.

Lmao, every North-to-Tasmania argument in a nutshell

 

[Carringbush2010]

I don't know, maybe ~200k paid up members, probably triple that number for supporters, so no impact he reckons.

Just lol.

It's amusing how some actually believe there'll be no impact by merging / folding / culling clubs.

 

[Carringbush2010]

It does seem inevitable that clubs will either be moved or merged to reduce the number of Melbourne teams, even if it's not for another 10-15 years.
North and Carlton would make the most sense to merge, being so geographically close already. Melbourne and St Kilda probably the other two.

Looking further ahead, can Adelaide and Perth support a third team each?

Why?

it’s the AFL, not VFL.

I can see it happening some day, but as things stand,

Vic is >50% of the market,
Games in Vic put money directly into the AFLs pocket through the MCG & Docklands stadium deals.
The club/league finances are stretched due to Covid.

So the AFL wont be reducing games in Vic, or adding new clubs elsewhere anytime soon.

What I can't get my head around is the belief of folding /merging / culling clubs will have zero or negligible market impact. It just doesn't work that way, the whole industry is market driven.

Let that last sentence sink in and then epiphanise why the current landscape is the current landscape. The lowest supporter base for a vic club is over 200k according to the Morgan poll. That is speculative agreed but is the only figures we can get our hands on.

So the AFL would not want to have that 200+ k impacted, so ask yourself Strapping Young Lad how would you react if the hawks were up for a fold / merge / or relocate?

Here's some history, 1996 there was a proposed merger between the hawks and the dees. It was emphatically voted a thumbs down by members of both clubs. In fact there was high emotion and even fisticuffs such was the feeling.

So if you think the fan base will just bend over and say 'ok insert pineapple here' you've got another thing coming.

For the landscape to change to a truly national comp (which is what the AFL truly want) then the market would need to support it. That would only happen IF a said vic club becomes so irrelevant that it does not have market support anymore.

So this tired old idea of culling / merging /folding just 'coz it's da afl not da vfl' is a childish and simplistic argument. It's emotive based.

The current landscape isn't by design coz the AFL has a grudge against non vic or the expansion out of the rest of the country, it's purely market driven.

 

[telsor]

What I can't get my head around is the belief of folding /merging / culling clubs will have zero or negligible market impact. It just doesn't work that way, the whole industry is market driven.

Let that last sentence sink in and then epiphanise why the current landscape is the current landscape. The lowest supporter base for a vic club is over 200k according to the Morgan poll. That is speculative agreed but is the only figures we can get our hands on.

So the AFL would not want to have that 200+ k impacted, so ask yourself Strapping Young Lad how would you react if the hawks were up for a fold / merge / or relocate?

Here's some history, 1996 there was a proposed merger between the hawks and the dees. It was emphatically voted a thumbs down by members of both clubs. In fact there was high emotion and even fisticuffs such was the feeling.

So if you think the fan base will just bend over and say 'ok insert pineapple here' you've got another thing coming.

For the landscape to change to a truly national comp (which is what the AFL truly want) then the market would need to support it. That would only happen IF a said vic club becomes so irrelevant that it does not have market support anymore.

So this tired old idea of culling / merging /folding just 'coz it's da afl not da vfl' is a childish and simplistic argument. It's emotive based.

The current landscape isn't by design coz the AFL has a grudge against non vic or the expansion out of the rest of the country, it's purely market driven.

The estimates for ex-Fitzroy supporters are that roughly 1/3 switched support to Brisbane, 1/3 changed to another team and 1/3 were lost to the game entirely.

1/3 of 200K (lowest support base for a Vic club as you mention) is still ~67K lost to the game entirely.

So if the idea is to merge/demote/kill a Vic club and replace it, then you have to do your maths based on that new club needing to gain at least 67K *new*supporters (not just from another club, etc) to break even before they even start to generate the support needed to justify their own existence.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Here's some history, 1996 there was a proposed merger between the hawks and the dees. It was emphatically voted a thumbs down by members of both clubs. In fact there was high emotion and even fisticuffs such was the feeling.

Incorrect. Melbourne voted to merge.


Regardless of your comments about the market, the fact is this is now a national game, and there should be a reluctance to expand elsewhere and keep the same amount of teams in Vic, particularly if they cannot operate and manage their business independently.

 

[telsor]

Incorrect. Melbourne voted to merge.


Regardless of your comments about the market, the fact is this is now a national game, and there should be a reluctance to expand elsewhere and keep the same amount of teams in Vic, particularly if they cannot operate and manage their business independently.

The Melbourne vote was close and pretty dodgy.

Lots of members locked out of the meeting, and huge piles of proxy votes.

If it had been relevant (Hawks voting no meant it wasn't), then I dare say it would have gone to the courts.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Incorrect. Melbourne voted to merge.


Regardless of your comments about the market, the fact is this is now a national game, and there should be a reluctance to expand elsewhere and keep the same amount of teams in Vic, particularly if they cannot operate and manage their business independently.

So going by your logic (sentiment more like it) there'll be no damage to the paying market. Ok, I'm glad you're not in charge - fans would be leaving in droves.

It is NOT a national league even if labeled as such it is an expanded state competition, there's reasons for it being that which is clear.

 

[Established1870]

It is NOT a national league even if labeled as such it is an expanded state competition, there's reasons for it being that which is clear.

 

[Carringbush2010]

View attachment 1020448

And? We still have 10 clubs in an 18 club competition in one state. That is NOT truly representative of a 'national' comp, and the reasons it is this way is evident.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Tassie Kangas has a nice ring to it

As does the West Melbourne Demondogs

 

[pablo668]

Call me thick, and I'm sure many of you will, but what I don't get is how merger/rellocation talk in the top rungs of the sport could even start without having to consult all of the major players in the sport, and I'm thinking sponsors/media here.
Unless I'm mistaken, the broadcast rights are based on a certain amount of matches being played yeah? And I'd assume certain teams being involved.
Otherwise there is a breach in the deal/contract yeah?

So I can't really see much changing any time soon, not unless certain clauses get written in to whatever contracts with the media/sponsors et al.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

So going by your logic (sentiment more like it) there'll be no damage to the paying market. Ok, I'm glad you're not in charge - fans would be leaving in droves.

It is NOT a national league even if labeled as such it is an expanded state competition, there's reasons for it being that which is clear.

My logic is that yes, there will be many supporters who will be upset, but there will also be many to embrace the opportunity to follow a new entity that is not handcuffed to AFL house to remain afloat.

 

[LoungeLizard]

My logic is that yes, there will be many supporters who will be upset, but there will also be many to embrace the opportunity to follow a new entity that is not handcuffed to AFL house to remain afloat.

That's mostly the problem, most clubs are handcuffed to AFL house, this year proved it, only 8 clubs did not ask for assistance, 6 of those were Melbourne clubs.

 

[Shadow89]

Tassie Kangas has a nice ring to it

As does the West Melbourne Demondogs

People in glass houses mate...

I daresay your club would be one of the top candidates, if the AFL were going to go down that route

 

[StuieG]

Perth possibly. Adelaide not as confident.

Freemantle are already very low on just about any method you use to rank the success of a club and you want to add another one to W.A..