Analysis 2021 - What's the pass mark?

[Go the Guts]

Win some games, show improvement, come 2nd last but still get that gun south Aussie in the draft everyone's banging on about.

 

[HG Pennypacker]

If we had this list and were a Melbourne based team without a home ground advantage that may - MAY - help us to a few wins I’d suggest we would go close to winless. I think it’s going to get really bad at times. The top teams will just feast on us. I hope I’m wrong but look at the fixtures this year

the only games we might be tipped as winners would be suns at home in round 3, demons in round 10 (doubtful) and then the Roos at home in the last round. It’s very hard to see another win. So for me anymore than 3 wins would be over par.

we didn’t bring anyone in and are relying on internal improvement and a bunch of young KPP. I fear the worst. If we don’t beat the suns I think we’ll start 0-9

 

[glengowan]

Don't want to finish last, but realistically will be bottom 4.

Last year I think the following players improved (either personally or improved the team): Laird to midfield improved the team, O'Brien in ruck was outstanding and improved both the team and personally, McPherson was a positive and showed promise as a poised, lock down defender, Sholl showed promise as an outside mid, Schoenberg showed glimpses as did Himmelberg. Not sure there was much else last year.

I'd like to see players such as Fogarty, Jones, Butts, Himmelberg and McHenry have break out years and hopefully some players we've drafted over the last two years show some promise of being elite in their positions. If we are still relying/hoping on the likes of Walker, Lynch, Talia and Sloane to be our best players at the end of the season, the rebuild will be taking longer than we'd hope and that's probably not a pass mark.

 

[dogs105]

Thinking back to 2005. Widely tipped to finish dead last. Thrashed in preseason games. The Advertiser was revelling in Adelaide about to be thrashed in the showdown.
Came out and stuffed them by 68 points on the way to the minor premiership with some of the best footy ever seen to that date.

Very unlikely that something like that happens in 2021, but funny things happen in football. We probably finish near the bottom, but no-one can accurately predict results 100% of the time.

 

[Scorpus]

Thinking back to 2005. Widely tipped to finish dead last. Thrashed in preseason games. The Advertiser was revelling in Adelaide about to be thrashed in the showdown.
Came out and stuffed them by 68 points on the way to the minor premiership with some of the best footy ever seen to that date.

Very unlikely that something like that happens in 2021, but funny things happen in football. We probably finish near the bottom, but no-one can accurately predict results 100% of the time.

If we win the minor premiership this year you'll find me in the ICU, because my brain will have exploded

 

[Jeffcrowe]

We are in rebuild mode with the youngest list, so the priority is to accelerate the development of our younger players... particularly those we are confident will be future best 22.

We still need to pick a core group of experienced players, but those who are on the fringe/unlikely to he around within a couple of years should only be picked as a backup.

We showed late last year with a less experienced side that experience doesn't guarantee better performances any way.

Would hope playing a quicker movement style we were playing late last year... ie. Taking the game on... even if it means getting scored heavily against by the better sides.

For confidence the team needs to win at least some games, though expect we will still be bottom 4.

Bit similar to this

want to see some emerging midfielders develop .... that of course means giving them some midfield time to begin with . Would like to see Shoenberg , Jones a Pedlar especially show they’re going to be good long term mids

also want to see the tall forwards be able to compete ahead of the ball aerially so we are not the worst in comp again for intercept marks against ( seems to be we’ve been the worst for 2-3 yrs )

might be a case that we don’t look like winning until the second half of year but I’m ok with that if the players of the future are making progress

hope Newchurch gets games in back half of season as he seems the most likely small forward on our list with speed, I like Rowe and think he can partner him quite well

Ive been consistent in saying I’m expecting us to come bottom or 17th .... no higher. So not going to judge it on that

 

[Golumless]

Bit similar to this

want to see some emerging midfielders develop .... that of course means giving them some midfield time to begin with . Would like to see Shoenberg , Jones a Pedlar especially show they’re going to be good long term mids

also want to see the tall forwards be able to compete ahead of the ball aerially so we are not the worst in comp again for intercept marks against ( seems to be we’ve been the worst for 2-3 yrs )

might be a case that we don’t look like winning until the second half of year but I’m ok with that if the players of the future are making progress

hope Newchurch gets games in back half of season as he seems the most likely small forward on our list with speed, I like Rowe and think he can partner him quite well

Ive been consistent in saying I’m expecting us to come bottom or 17th .... no higher. So not going to judge it on that

I agree, there is potential for a Betts/Cameron styled partnership there (not to say that they have to mirror how both played or will get to that level), seeing you've got someone who a capable line breaker and someone who is pretty reliant on how smart of a footballer that he is.

Alongside McAdam we could have a pretty fun triplet for the 4-5 times the ball gets to the forward line by the end of the season.

 

[pjcrows]

Thinking back to 2005. Widely tipped to finish dead last. Thrashed in preseason games. The Advertiser was revelling in Adelaide about to be thrashed in the showdown.
Came out and stuffed them by 68 points on the way to the minor premiership with some of the best footy ever seen to that date.

Very unlikely that something like that happens in 2021, but funny things happen in football. We probably finish near the bottom, but no-one can accurately predict results 100% of the time.

The 2005 midfield had Ricciuto, McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards. Arguably four of our Top 10 players ever.

The 2021 midfield has... well, yeah.

 

[hey shorty]

The 2005 midfield had Ricciuto, McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards. Arguably four of our Top 10 players ever.

The 2021 midfield has... well, yeah.

I would say that's arguable at all.

They'd all be there no doubt.

 

[pjcrows]

I would say that's arguable at all.

They'd all be there no doubt.

It's a tough job - I tried it not long ago!

 

[dogs105]

I would say that's arguable at all.

They'd all be there no doubt.

Defs - Modra, Rehn,

Possibles - Thompson, Dangerfield, Smart, Hart, Jarman, Betts

Edwards might just miss, but probably not.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

• 8 wins would be a huge tick.
• 6-7 wins, solid pass.
• 5 wins would be a pass mark.
• Under 5 wins would be a bit smelly.
• Not winning the spoon would be a preference, but if we finish 18th with or 5-6 wins, I'm reasonably OK with that, as long as we are injecting plenty of games into the kids.
• Getting games into the kids should be THE priority. All 50/50 selection calls should be based on 2025, not 2021.

There is no way we will win more than 5 games

 

[xchadders]

But what if Richmond and Geelong will meet in the GF again?

unfortunate but unlikely

 

[Geoffa32]

Improvement.....

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'd like to see some of the young players we are pinning our hopes on - Jones, McHenry, Schoenberg, McAsey, others - do some good things that reassure me they'll be good players in time.

We can blame coaching and structure and game plan for players not developing but there are times in a game when the ball is in the air or on the ground... and it just comes down to whether they can play the game or not. Win the ball or not, evade their opponent or not, get hands free in the tackle or not, square the contest or not, stick the tackle or not, keep their feet or not, handle the ball cleanly or not... etc.

We see quality on display in these moments and it is largely independent of coaching.

Haven't been enough glimpses of pure quality yet

 

[Scorpus]

Interested to hear from the people saying we need to win 5-6 games, which 5-6 teams are we beating this year?

 

[Red mist]

So what is everyone's expectations for 2021?

How many wins is it going to take for you as a supporter to feel satisfied that we're heading the right direction?

For me I would love to see us win at least 6, but anything less than 5 wins will feel like a fail to me.

Like first round pick one should be the goal.

 

[hey shorty]

Interested to hear from the people saying we need to win 5-6 games, which 5-6 teams are we beating this year?

At R14 last year I couldn't see us winning any.

I don't think we NEED to win 6 games. If we won more than we did last year we should be reasonably happy.

 

[Bob Neil]

I think as others have said it's about improvement - collectively and individually.

Here's how I rank the necessary, but hopefully realistic, improvement levels in the 2021 season we need to see across our returning (i.e. excluding new draftees) playing group:

Must show significant improvement

• Jones, McAsey, Hately, Frampton, McHenry, Fogarty, O'Connor, Davis, Gollant, Strachan

Must show some further improvement

• Murphy, Kelly, Hamill, Stengle, McAdam, Worrell, Schoenberg, Himmelberg, McPherson, Sholl, Doedee, Butts

Must maintain current level

• Keays, Crouch, Sloane, Seedsman, Walker, Mackay, Brown, Lynch, Smith, O'Brien

Must not regress significantly

• Talia, Laird

 

[hey shorty]

To be honest, we need the whole squad to improve significantly

 

[Scorpus]

I think as others have said it's about improvement - collectively and individually.


Must maintain current level

• Keays, Crouch, Sloane, Seedsman, Walker, Mackay, Brown, Lynch, Smith, O'Brien

Must not regress significantly

• Talia, Laird

I'd move almost all of those players up a tier. Maybe except O'Brien

 

[Red mist]

To be honest, we need the whole squad to improve significantly

By getting out of old archetypal modes of structure x

 

[hey shorty]

By getting out of old archetypal modes of structure x

Correct, even if you didn't know it.

 

[Red mist]

Correct, even if you didn't know it.

Don’t turn me around Willow.

 

[Mismatched]

The 2005 midfield had Ricciuto, McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards. Arguably four of our Top 10 players ever.

The 2021 midfield has... well, yeah.

Plus a young Thommo in Mid as well.

Our defence also read something like:
B: Johncock - Rutten - Hart
HB: McLeod - Bock - Bassett