List Mgmt. Collingwood Re-Building Via The Draft

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I’d rather keep players I enjoy watching, unless the offer is too good to refuse. I’ve always loved watching Elliot and last week reaffirmed he still has it. Sidey unfortunately just isn’t as exciting these days.

Absolutely from a personal preference point of view.... you want to be entertained. But that’s not how list management works.

At the end of the day Elliott and Sidebottom are likely to be far more valuable to Collingwood than they will be to other teams. I suspect they will both be at Collingwood next year

 

[The Royal Sampler]

isn’t one of the key points of moneyball that these guys were actually good statistically in key areas but were rated lower because they had other flaws like too old, party boy, bung shoulder ect which caused their value to drop below their performance.

stengle would be the classic example if he was picked up for min salary and as a mid season rookie

No, not really. It’s because baseball scouts were overrating traits that did not contribute to winning games of baseball.

Speed to steal bases.
Big hitters.
A strong jaw (no kidding).
Athleticism.

Beane and the A’s performed a regression analysis to determine what metrics actually correlated to winning games of baseball, and they weren’t what conventional wisdom suggested. And once Beane had this IP, he could pick up the players who exhibited the traits he wanted on the cheap, because no-one else saw it yet.

Turned out what mattered was taking as many pitches as possible, and getting on-base. Not “defence”, not stealing, not being able to hit it across the road to the adjoining carpark.

 

[Kappa]

No, not really. It’s because baseball scouts were overrating traits that did not contribute to winning games of baseball.

Speed to steal bases.
Big hitters.
A strong jaw (no kidding).
Athleticism.

Beane and the A’s performed a regression analysis to determine what metrics actually correlated to winning games of baseball, and they weren’t what conventional wisdom suggested. And once Beane had this IP, he could pick up the players who exhibited the traits he wanted on the cheap, because no-one else saw it yet.

Turned out what mattered was taking as many pitches as possible, and getting on-base. Not “defence”, not stealing, not being able to hit it across the road to the adjoining carpark.

but the reason they got those guys on the cheap was because other recruiters didn’t want them due to their flaws like age, injury, attitude ect, which made their value drop below their statistical output, no? At least that’s how the movie portrayed it.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

but the reason they got those guys on the cheap was because other recruiters didn’t want them due to their flaws like age, injury, attitude ect, which made their value drop below their statistical output, no? At least that’s how the movie portrayed it.

The main reason those guys were available on the cheap was because they were “failures” at what the industry drafted them for, or “too old” to do what they were drafted for, or yes, unable to do what they were drafted for because of injury.

But Beane didn’t want them for what they were drafted for. What they were drafted for was old-school wisdom based on anecdotal evidence, nostalgia and groupthink. Beane wanted them because they could do the things he now knew mattered, and no-one else had the IP to see it yet.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Absolutely from a personal preference point of view.... you want to be entertained. But that’s not how list management works.

At the end of the day Elliott and Sidebottom are likely to be far more valuable to Collingwood than they will be to other teams. I suspect they will both be at Collingwood next year

Yep Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Roughead, Howe, Elliott and WHE are all worth more to us than what we’re likely to get in trade. They are veterans who keep us competitive.

Players like Mayne, Cox, Greenwood are not in this category. Mayne probably wouldn’t be retained by the new coach, Cox may have some Daicos points minimal trade value but not much value to us, and Greenwood is done.

 

[Carringbush2010]

My call is their top end talent is considerably above ours.

We have no one like Dusty in influence which is no surprise. Lynch and Reiwoldt are a premier pain of big forwards who stand far above the forwards we have. Their group of mids have been exceptional through their flag years. Our backline would equal theirs perhaps but otherwise its not close.

I'd argue that the blue chip stocks are much the same. Dusty aside in the last 3 years (when you include Adz and Stepho) our top end has the same potential

It's after that is where the difference lies, that being imbalance in age / experience (especially now) and kpp and depth (or more accurately poor development of)

We are / have been far from potential where as the premiers have been operating at or close to, on top making the most of their 'depth'.

So for mine it's the depth and development discussion, our depth looks like a bunch of brushed spuds compared to where as in 2018 you'd say players like JT for example are good players or now for example if you used Cal Brown for pinch hit roles at the coal face instead a small forward then he's a good player - but he's viewed as a spud instead of using him for his strengths.

Yeah I know the necessities because of our list imbalance, but none of that takes away from the fact that the premiers do / have not had THE list, it's been their system and development that has obtained them success. We've wasted our 'opportunities' at the same time.

Now we have an opportunity with a blank canvas apart from sweet spot age demographic 'good players' like Moore, Deg, Bruzzy, IQ, Crisp, Grundy, Daicos, Sier to build upon. My request to the club is don't waste this opportunity with dumb trades and poor development.

 

[neilk]

No, not really. It’s because baseball scouts were overrating traits that did not contribute to winning games of baseball.

Speed to steal bases.
Big hitters.
A strong jaw (no kidding).
Athleticism.

Beane and the A’s performed a regression analysis to determine what metrics actually correlated to winning games of baseball, and they weren’t what conventional wisdom suggested. And once Beane had this IP, he could pick up the players who exhibited the traits he wanted on the cheap, because no-one else saw it yet.

Turned out what mattered was taking as many pitches as possible, and getting on-base. Not “defence”, not stealing, not being able to hit it across the road to the adjoining carpark.

Ugly girlfriend?

 

[Markfs]

I'd still like to persist with Kelly as KPF
I actually think Anton Tohill shows promise at FB in VFL
along with Keane and Wilson thats enough KPD's

I get reminded of maths at school...probability. The likelihood of kelly being a solid player is 30% maybe. Tohill more like 10% and similar with Wilson. Keane looks like he is a little better, more like kelly at 30%. The chances of them all being serviceable is 3/10 X 1/10 X 1/10 X 3/10 or about 9 chances in a thousand or about 0.9%. I think that figure is about right. I just wanted to find a practical use for high school maths.

 

[Kappa]

I get reminded of maths at school...probability. The likelihood of kelly being a solid player is 30% maybe. Tohill more like 10% and similar with Wilson. Keane looks like he is a little better, more like kelly at 30%. The chances of them all being serviceable is 3/10 X 1/10 X 1/10 X 3/10 or about 9 chances in a thousand or about 0.9%. I think that figure is about right. I just wanted to find a practical use for high school maths.

I think 9 in a thousand is 0.09.

 

[Markfs]

I'd argue that the blue chip stocks are much the same. Dusty aside in the last 3 years (when you include Adz and Stepho) our top end has the same potential

It's after that is where the difference lies, that being imbalance in age / experience (especially now) and kpp and depth (or more accurately poor development of)

We are / have been far from potential where as the premiers have been operating at or close to, on top making the most of their 'depth'.

So for mine it's the depth and development discussion, our depth looks like a bunch of brushed spuds compared to where as in 2018 you'd say players like JT for example are good players or now for example if you used Cal Brown for pinch hit roles at the coal face instead a small forward then he's a good player - but he's viewed as a spud instead of using him for his strengths.

Yeah I know the necessities because of our list imbalance, but none of that takes away from the fact that the premiers do / have not had THE list, it's been their system and development that has obtained them success. We've wasted our 'opportunities' at the same time.

Now we have an opportunity with a blank canvas apart from sweet spot age demographic 'good players' like Moore, Deg, Bruzzy, IQ, Crisp, Grundy, Daicos, Sier to build upon. My request to the club is don't waste this opportunity with dumb trades and poor development.

I disagree. I put more emphasis on recruitment ahead of development. I agree with the dumb trades, but I would say that if a Pie list manager thinks about trading 2 first round picks for a player, then stop thinking. In fact, I wouldn't trade a first round pick until we have a team making the eight

 

[Markfs]

I think 9 in a thousand is 0.09.

Google question what is 9 in a thousand as a percentage?

0.9%

Convert fraction (ratio) 9 / 1,000 Answer: 0.9%

 

[Carringbush2010]

I disagree. I put more emphasis on recruitment ahead of development. I agree with the dumb trades, but I would say that if a Pie list manager thinks about trading 2 first round picks for a player, then stop thinking. In fact, I wouldn't trade a first round pick until we have a team making the eight

Recruitment yes, but then the development of the recruited.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Ugly girlfriend?

No I married her.

 

[Markfs]

Recruitment yes, but then the development of the recruited.

well i'm sure they'll put a ton of development into trey....and if they can get him up to speed then i might nominate for the draft

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Yep Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Roughead, Howe, Elliott and WHE are all worth more to us than what we’re likely to get in trade. They are veterans who keep us competitive.

Players like Mayne, Cox, Greenwood are not in this category. Mayne probably wouldn’t be retained by the new coach, Cox may have some Daicos points minimal trade value but not much value to us, and Greenwood is done.

Pretty much.

I think Mayne on base salary should be considered on a one year contract... especially after almost certainly losing Greenwood to retirement. We have room for one hardened body as VFL depth and leadership at worst . Cox as a key fwd/ruckman may have a little bit of trade value... even some Daicos points as you mention. My only issue with moving him on is who we replace him with given our limited trade negotiating power. We are already desperately underdone in the key forward department. And if we lose Cox as a ruckman who is our depth? Does it mean the club is happy to persist with Lynch?

 

[Kappa]

Pretty much.

I think Mayne on base salary should be considered on a one year contract... especially after almost certainly losing Greenwood to retirement. We have room for one hardened body as VFL depth and leadership at worst . Cox as a key fwd/ruckman may have a little bit of trade value... even some Daicos points as you mention. My only issue with moving him on is who we replace him with given our limited trade negotiating power. We are already desperately underdone in the key forward department. And if we lose Cox as a ruckman who is our depth? Does it mean the club is happy to persist with Lynch?

I do not want our kids learning to do what Mayne does, he ruins our ball movement every time he plays.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I do not want our kids learning to do what Mayne does, he ruins our ball movement every time he plays.

Understandable position.. at the end of the day it will be a decision about the last place on our list.... so shouldnt make a material difference one way or the other.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Pretty much.

I think Mayne on base salary should be considered on a one year contract... especially after almost certainly losing Greenwood to retirement. We have room for one hardened body as VFL depth and leadership at worst . Cox as a key fwd/ruckman may have a little bit of trade value... even some Daicos points as you mention. My only issue with moving him on is who we replace him with given our limited trade negotiating power. We are already desperately underdone in the key forward department. And if we lose Cox as a ruckman who is our depth? Does it mean the club is happy to persist with Lynch?

I’m happy to persist with Lynch and as I’ve mentioned plenty of times recently, I think we should prioritise getting Jake Riccardi across cheaply with the threat of PSD as leverage to cover our forwards issue. He’s 21 yo, 195cm and just kicked 8 goals in the VFL this week. It’s what a switched on recruiting department should be all over.

 

[manicpie]

I’m happy to persist with Lynch and as I’ve mentioned plenty of times recently, I think we should prioritise getting Jake Riccardi across cheaply with the threat of PSD as leverage to cover our forwards issue. He’s 21 yo, 195cm and just kicked 8 goals in the VFL this week. It’s what a switched on recruiting department should be all over.

What if other clubs wanted to take him before us in the PSD? I didn't realise he kicked 8 and had 24 disposals yesterday, I want him bad now

 

[The Royal Sampler]

What if other clubs wanted to take him before us in the PSD? I didn't realise he kicked 8 and had 24 disposals yesterday, I want him bad now

Well the Roos are pretty flush for tall forwards, so much so they were happy to let Brown walk and they’ve picked up Jake Edwards in the MSD.

At the moment we’d be pick 2 in the PSD and with Bucks stepping down, I don’t really see us shooting up the ladder any time soon. Hell even North are about to be one game behind us.

 

[manicpie]

Well the Roos are pretty flush for tall forwards, so much so they were happy to let Brown walk and they’ve picked up Jake Edwards in the MSD.

At the moment we’d be pick 2 in the PSD and with Bucks stepping down, I don’t really see us shooting up the ladder any time soon. Hell even North are about to be one game behind us.

I think North are going to go after McKay from Carlton, hopefully

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I think North are going to go after McKay from Carlton, hopefully

Hopefully. But I doubt the PSD would be involved, but yes potentially another key forward.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Using Cox and/or Sier to help land Riccardi and/or some Daicos/Dib points sounds like it has some merit. I dont think we will be having a fire sale of players though..........unless an offer too good to refuse comes for DeGoey or Grundy... and that never happens

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Using Cox and/or Sier to help land Riccardi and/or some Daicos/Dib points sounds like it has some merit. I dont think we will be having a fire sale of players though..........unless an offer too good to refuse comes for DeGoey or Grundy... and that never happens

I think anyone keen on De Goey now would be waiting for RFA next season. We should be too.

 

[TradeDraft]

Well the Roos are pretty flush for tall forwards, so much so they were happy to let Brown walk and they’ve picked up Jake Edwards in the MSD.

At the moment we’d be pick 2 in the PSD and with Bucks stepping down, I don’t really see us shooting up the ladder any time soon. Hell even North are about to be one game behind us.

Actually we would have Pick 3 in the PSD.

I would not be the Big Shock IF we go up a Few Spots on the Ladder