Our Run home - near impossible to finish top 4

[Hoos]

and when it comes to playing against West Coast over there, you can’t expect to dominate the entire game.

I don't. But I do expect us to win when we have a 22 point lead with 10 minutes to go. The mistakes we made in those 10 minutes were terrible and cost us the game.

I think that’s overly pessimistic.

That's probably because my default position is pessimistic. But I'm only going on what we've dished up so far, which has been marginally better than average. Our form will have to improve dramatically for us to have any chance at all this year.

A pessimist is what an idealist calls a realist.

 

[RiskingHead]

I can be as pessimistic as the next guy, and after the 37 years of misery, conditioned to be more so. But if we finish outside the top 4, then the extra hurdle compared to 2017, 2019 and 2020 is simply to win an elim final against a 5-8 team. Sounds far from an insurmountable extra obstacle

 

[SleepingGiant]

If anyone thinks we are making top 4 now, they are crazy. I hope I am proven wrong but we need to be undefeated for this to happen and win well when we do.

 

[HTT]

I don't. But I do expect us to win when we have a 22 point lead with 10 minutes to go. The mistakes we made in those 10 minutes were terrible and cost us the game.

That's probably because my default position is pessimistic. But I'm only going on what we've dished up so far, which has been marginally better than average. Our form will have to improve dramatically for us to have any chance at all this year.

A pessimistic is what an idealist calls a realist.

I reckon we just ran out of juice. Our little blokes got tired, but their big blokes didn’t get any littler.

Three weeks ago when we got shifted to Sydney, if anyone here was offered two 5 goal wins and a 3pt loss to West Coast, most would’ve taken it.

 

[theyellowsash]

Guys, we are 1 win and % from 4th
Had we held on for 1 more minute on Sunday we would have been equal 4th
We have arguably the best run home in the next 9 weeks of any of the other in the top 8 currently

Top 4 may not happen - but very easily could happen.

we're 2 wins and a wins worth of % from 4th. all of the dogs, lions, cats, power have only played 12 games while we have 13.

 

[Hoos]

I reckon we just ran out of juice. Our little blokes got tired, but their big blokes didn’t get any littler.

And our guys got dumber. It wasn't because of their big guys. It was purely due to several absolute howlers we made that directly cost goals, momentum, and more goals

 

[Hoos]

Three weeks ago when we got shifted to Sydney, if anyone here was offered two 5 goal wins and a 3pt loss to West Coast, most would’ve taken it.

I'm part of the few who wouldn't have taken it. I expected us to win both the Adelaide and Essendon games by at least 5 goals and expected us to defeat West Coast. We didn't and now we have to do what we did over the last 9 rounds in 2019: win every game.

Only problem with that is I don't think we're playing as well as that team was.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Pretty much everyone fell over this weekend. Lol at "literally impossible". Last I checked we can still win up to 16 games. The ladder leaders are currently on 11. The minor flag is still "possible".

Yep and its still possible for me to shag Cindy Crawford technically. Doesn't mean its likely to happen.

Melbourne losing to Collingwood means squat - because WE lost to the Eagles. Heaps of people have shat on me on this thread, but those who did the same exercise have all came to the same conclusion - its going to be bloody hard. For us to do it, we needed to beat the Ealges, Lions & Cats. If we went 2 out of 3, we still relied on others losing against bottom 8 teams, at home. If we went 1 for 3 - no chance. The comment is still looking pretty bloody right so far. The only team i see possibly falling out of the 8 is the Lions ( Dogs, Dee's too much head start. - Geelong, too primed & have good players coming back in).

If you can find the 3 extra loses the Lions willl have MORE than us over the next 10 weeks, well done. I couldn't, unless i just relied on good ol fashioned "wishful thinking"

We will need the Lions to lose 3 more games than us over the remaining games. Top 4 teams dont go 1-6 against the other top 8 teams - duh

 

[Hoos]

Yep and its still possible for me to shag Cindy Crawford technically. Doesn't mean its likely to happen.

Melbourne losing to Collingwood means squat - because WE lost to the Eagles. Heaps of people have shat on me on this thread, but those who did the same exercise have all came to the same conclusion - its going to be bloody hard. For us to do it, we needed to beat the Ealges, Lions & Cats. If we went 2 out of 3, we still relied on others losing against bottom 8 teams, at home. If we went 1 for 3 - no chance. The comment is still looking pretty bloody right so far. The only team i see possibly falling out of the 8 is the Lions ( Dogs, Dee's too much head start. - Geelong, too primed & have good players coming back in).
View attachment 1155949
If you can find the 3 extra loses the Lions willl have MORE than us over the next 10 weeks, well done. I couldn't, unless i just relied on good ol fashioned "wishful thinking"

We will need the Lions to lose 3 more games than us over the remaining games. Top 4 teams dont go 1-6 against the other top 8 teams - duh

Spot on, unfortunately.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Spot on, unfortunately.

I know. Its sad. I really like Cindy Crawrford

 

[HTT]

I'm part of the few who wouldn't have taken it. I expected us to win both the Adelaide and Essendon games by at least 5 goals and expected us to defeat West Coast. We didn't and now we have to do what we did over the last 9 rounds in 2019: win every game.

Only problem with that is I don't think we're playing as well as that team was.

In 2019 our last 3 prior to the bye we lost to North by 7 goals (who’d just sacked their coach), Geelong by 11 goals, and then Adelaide by 5 goals. We were not playing terribly well at all.

 

[Hoos]

I know. Its sad. I really like Cindy Crawrford

I never did.

 

[Hoos]

In 2019 our last 3 prior to the bye we lost to North by 7 goals (who’d just sacked their coach), Geelong by 11 goals, and then Adelaide by 5 goals. We were not playing terribly well at all.

I'd forgotten that north game. Still, there's a lot of improvement and consistency needed to have any chance at all. Eliminating the goals we give away through sloppy disposal would be a good start.

 

[Roachy8]

we're 2 wins and a wins worth of % from 4th. all of the dogs, lions, cats, power have only played 12 games while we have 13.

Oops

 

[CholEstrol]

The last 10 minutes or so against West Coast was as bad a finish to a game as you could get. We shot ourselves in the foot

What was feeling like a regulation lead protection just went horribly wrong. Feels worse than getting flogged.

 

[banzai]

All of the interstate teams above us have pretty tricky runs home and are all vulnerable on the road. I've done a few ladder predicters going 8-1 that get us to 4th, obviously winning the Brisbane game is non negotiable for us to stay alive. Preferably the dogs beat Geelong this week and then the loser of Brisbane Geelong becomes very catchable.

 

[RJK Tiger]

All of the interstate teams above us have pretty tricky runs home and are all vulnerable on the road. I've done a few ladder predicters going 8-1 that get us to 4th, obviously winning the Brisbane game is non negotiable for us to stay alive. Preferably the dogs beat Geelong this week and then the loser of Brisbane Geelong becomes very catchable.

i dunno what runs you are looking at, but the Lions run is a piece of piss & Ports is not much harder. Port only play 2 x top 4 teams + 1 other top 8 team.

All the "top 4" have pretty simple runs home - so "wins on the board" + % are the deal breakers

 

[Philth]

I know. Its sad. I really like Cindy Crawrford

Cindy must be getting a bit long in the tooth now hey?

 

[banzai]

i dunno what runs you are looking at, but the Lions run is a piece of piss & Ports is not much harder. Port only play 2 x top 4 teams + 1 other top 8 team.

All the "top 4" have pretty simple runs home - so "wins on the board" + % are the deal breakers

I can't see Port winning all their away games against GC, St Kilda, Hawthorn and GWS. They could easily lose to GC this week. If Brisbane lose to Geelong in 2 weeks they become very vulnerable as we should go level with them if we beat them. They still have games like Freo away and West Coast after that. If we don't slip up we aren't out of it. Just win our next 3 and we will be sitting just outside the top 4. Maybe if the others havn't slipped up we will have to beat Geelong as well. We beat Brisbane and Geelong on our run in last year. We don't seem to be playing as well but with momentum up we can be hard to stop.

 

[VB_longneck]

I can be as pessimistic as the next guy, and after the 37 years of misery, conditioned to be more so. But if we finish outside the top 4, then the extra hurdle compared to 2017, 2019 and 2020 is simply to win an elim final against a 5-8 team. Sounds far from an insurmountable extra obstacle

hocking will get rid of the weeks break as soon as its obvious we're finishing 5th

 

[banzai]

hocking will get rid of the weeks break as soon as its obvious we're finishing 5th

We could just rest everyone round 23 if that happens (assuming we have top 6 locked up). When North did it against us they won 2 finals and then were a bit unlucky to lose against West Coast in the prelim.

Also unless the season gets delayed somewhere there will have to be a bye week as otherwise it puts the Grand Final 18th September. I couldn't see that happening.

 

[This Is Anfield]

Anyway, OP said near impossible... which means it’s possible.

 

[This Is Anfield]

I know. Its sad. I really like Cindy Crawrford

She wasn’t that good a shag...

 

[VB_longneck]

Anyway, OP said near impossible... which means it’s possible.

 

[box070]

Even if we don’t there is still a chance of playing 4 MCG finals of Melb WB and Geel stay in the top 3 slots. Worse case we may get week 2 in Brisbane which I have no fears about. We should be at least aiming for 5 th or 6th to avoid Perth or port. Ideally we get Sydney.

The worst premiership team of last 30 years did it from outside the top 4 so no reason this team can’t if we can recover top form and regain all our players.

pessimists getting their knickers in a twist is humorous