Roast Balta up forward is the result of the historical failures of our recruiters to actualy draft and develop KPF.

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richoplzbreed

richoplzbreed

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Richmond

Richmond - Every Draft Pick Ever - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au www.draftguru.com.au

Draft guru states we've had 329 picks in all drafts since they began in 1981. In that entire time we've only successfully drafted and developed 2 quality KPF's (Richo fell in our laps so reality is its been 1/328 with Jack). Time and again we've drafted duds who failed to even have minimal impact. For context our next most successful pseudo fwd's were really rucks in Ottens and Vickery.

I've listened to and watched every draft of easily the last 20 years and some failed selections have had me slam my fist on the the table in frustration. Recent balls up no brainers were Brown over JVR, CCJ over Oscar Allen. Conca when Lynch was ripe for the plucking and a perfect ready made replacement after losing Richo a year earlier. Fiora over Pavlich...... the list is endless. The worst thing is Jay Schultz is the only KPF we've drafted that actually went elsewhere and turned out had some actual ability. Besides McBean dominating in SANFL all the rest fell into complete obscurity.

The really lousy thing is just by picking best available player in the Draft our KPF stocks would be healthy with a gun Oscar Allen, JVR developing with assistance from either Ryan, Bauer or Kozitsche fighting for a spot. Our KPD would be solid with Balta, Gibcus developing and Young. Losing Balta down back pretty much telegraphs the team will play Grimes, when realistically he shouldn't be playing. Domino effect is that really Grimes will be keeping out and delaying the development of Tom Brown and I'll be shocked if JVR doesn't kick 40 goals this year.

Even last off season they judged that Bradtke was better than Narkle. Bradtke came and went whilst Narkle played a few games in a dominant team and has been extended. I have little faith that we can actually draft a quality KPF before Tassie come in and compromise the draft for 3-4 years.

Seeing the crazy salaries that duds like Doedee, McKay, Ratagolea, Zerk-Thatcher all got last year I'm tipping no less than a dozen teams are watching the Balta experiment and if it fails watch all the buzzards offer a frustrated and jaded Balta 7 x $1,000,000 with guarantees of settling him in defence.
 
Even Jack was really on the back of his cousin already playing well in the position.

Agreed, we can't develop a KPF to save ourselves, and part of it has to do with our historically bad I50, too. We won flags by scrapping the ball into the forward line so KPF wasn't even a problem.
 

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I reckon the club is too scared to use a top draft pick on a key forward in case it fails. I reckon its why when we recruited Jack, we were happy to slide down the list to grab him, Rance was also a later early pick. We are more chance to grab a decent player if we draft mids because they are a dime a dozen, we have had this attitude for decades and I'm not sure why considering the changes in our recruitment team during this time.
 
rfctigerarmy said:
Even Jack was really on the back of his cousin already playing well in the position.

Agreed, we can't develop a KPF to save ourselves, and part of it has to do with our historically bad I50, too. We won flags by scrapping the ball into the forward line so KPF wasn't even a problem.
Click to expand...
That's garbage. Jack was a very good junior in his own right.
 
I feel the club has made a conscious decision in recent times to steer away from drafting KPF because they can be very hit and miss all the while absorbing a lot of your resources, time and energy for maybe no return.

instead we are targeting forwards via the trade / free agency periods whereby we are going after already developed players who are known quantities.

It's not the worst strategy.
 
Michaels said:
I feel the club has made a conscious decision in recent times to steer away from drafting KPF because they can be very hit and miss all the while absorbing a lot of your resources, time and energy for maybe no return.

instead we are targeting forwards via the trade / free agency periods whereby we are going after already developed players who are known quantities.

It's not the worst strategy.
Click to expand...
I agree with that , but it's not the greatest strategy either most other clubs find them so no reason we shouldn't sooner or later can't keep going along that path there's not always a Lynch.
 
tiger_tough said:
That's garbage. Jack was a very good junior in his own right.
Click to expand...
I didn't word what I meant, well. I don't mean that he wasn't good in his own right, but the pedigree was already on show elsewhere. So, drafting him and knowing he would be a good result, was fairly obvious.
 

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richoplzbreed said:

Richmond - Every Draft Pick Ever - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au www.draftguru.com.au

Draft guru states we've had 329 picks in all drafts since they began in 1981. In that entire time we've only successfully drafted and developed 2 quality KPF's (Richo fell in our laps so reality is its been 1/328 with Jack). Time and again we've drafted duds who failed to even have minimal impact. For context our next most successful pseudo fwd's were really rucks in Ottens and Vickery.

I've listened to and watched every draft of easily the last 20 years and some failed selections have had me slam my fist on the the table in frustration. Recent balls up no brainers were Brown over JVR, CCJ over Oscar Allen. Conca when Lynch was ripe for the plucking and a perfect ready made replacement after losing Richo a year earlier. Fiora over Pavlich...... the list is endless. The worst thing is Jay Schultz is the only KPF we've drafted that actually went elsewhere and turned out had some actual ability. Besides McBean dominating in SANFL all the rest fell into complete obscurity.

The really lousy thing is just by picking best available player in the Draft our KPF stocks would be healthy with a gun Oscar Allen, JVR developing with assistance from either Ryan, Bauer or Kozitsche fighting for a spot. Our KPD would be solid with Balta, Gibcus developing and Young. Losing Balta down back pretty much telegraphs the team will play Grimes, when realistically he shouldn't be playing. Domino effect is that really Grimes will be keeping out and delaying the development of Tom Brown and I'll be shocked if JVR doesn't kick 40 goals this year.

Even last off season they judged that Bradtke was better than Narkle. Bradtke came and went whilst Narkle played a few games in a dominant team and has been extended. I have little faith that we can actually draft a quality KPF before Tassie come in and compromise the draft for 3-4 years.

Seeing the crazy salaries that duds like Doedee, McKay, Ratagolea, Zerk-Thatcher all got last year I'm tipping no less than a dozen teams are watching the Balta experiment and if it fails watch all the buzzards offer a frustrated and jaded Balta 7 x $1,000,000 with guarantees of settling him in defence.
Click to expand...
Most of the time since the 1980's we had 1 part time recruiter or something like that, so we were always a long way behind the eightball no excuses these days, although as soon as we did have the money to increase our recruitment team the AFL brought in the soft cap, thanks AFL you f***in campaigners, always love to screw us.
 
Michaels said:
I feel the club has made a conscious decision in recent times to steer away from drafting KPF because they can be very hit and miss all the while absorbing a lot of your resources, time and energy for maybe no return.

instead we are targeting forwards via the trade / free agency periods whereby we are going after already developed players who are known quantities.

It's not the worst strategy.
Click to expand...
When a Lynch falls into your lap costing nothing when you're in a premiership window (which is what a once in a lifetime thing?) it doesn't look so bad. When however a Reiwoldt has retired and that said Lynch is potentially on his last legs with the best you can do post dynasty is trade in a fringe player from a bottom rung club like Koschitzke, then it doesn't look so good.

Anyhow as recent history has shown (despite fanciful speculation here to the contrary) that prising away a Himmelberg or a Cadman or King is easier said than done. To expect the other clubs to use first round picks on key forwards, develop them and then raid them, isn't sustainable. It's like always hoping that other clubs ahead of you lose so you can play finals, too much is out of your control. Lets be honest, chances are we will probably get our next Riewoldt, the same way we got our last Riewoldt, through the draft.

Anyhow, any strategy that takes the next Rance and throws him into the forward line after raiding Hawthorn's bargin bin probably isn't one worth persurvering with.
 
Tygrys said:
When a Lynch falls into your lap costing nothing when you're in a premiership window (which is what a once in a lifetime thing?) it doesn't look so bad. When however a Reiwoldt has retired and that said Lynch is potentially on his last legs with the best you can do post dynasty is trade in a fringe player from a bottom rung club like Koschitzke, then it doesn't look so good.

Anyhow as recent history has shown (despite fanciful speculation here to the contrary) that prising away a Himmelberg or a Cadman or King is easier said than done. To expect the other clubs to use first round picks on key forwards, develop them and then raid them, isn't sustainable. It's like always hoping that other clubs ahead of you lose so you can play finals, too much is out of your control. Lets be honest, chances are we will probably get our next Riewoldt, the same way we got our last Riewoldt, through the draft.

Anyhow, any strategy that takes the next Rance and throws him into the forward line after raiding Hawthorn's bargin bin probably isn't one worth persurvering with.
Click to expand...

Premiership key forwards drafted in the open draft at 18yo and developed by the Premiership team:

2023 Collingwood - nil
2022 Geelong - nil(Hawkins f/s)
2021 T McDonald pick 53
2020 Riewoldt pick 13
2019 Riewoldt pick 13
2018 Darling pick 26
2017 Riewoldt pick 13
2016 Nil(Cordy F/S)
2015 Roughead pick 2
2014 Roughead pick 2
2013 Roughead pick 2 Franklin pick 5
2012 S Reid pick 38, Roberts-Thompson pick 29
2011 Geelong - nil
2010 Dawes pick 28 (Cloke F/S)
2009 Geelong - nil
2008 Roughead, Franklin
2007 Geelong - nil

So only Richmond's 3 flags and Hawthorn's 4 flags in the last 17 seasons contained truly high quality key forwards that were drafted after being available to all clubs in the draft, and developed by the club who won the flag. Darling, Reid, McDonald, Roberts-Thompson were also taken in the open draft by Premiership winning clubs, but they are all at least a bit below the top key forwards.

There are in fact not that many actual top level key forwards even available to be drafted.

Of the players who were drafted in the open draft this century, maybe Franklin, Roughead, Pavlich, Riewoldt, N, & Riewoldt J, Kennedy, and now Curnow looks a strong chance to join this group. I guess Walker, Lynch and J Cameron are around that sort of level. That is from around 17 drafts 2000-2016 where we can have a strong understanding of the player's value(later ones like Naughton are still being determined.)

So you get barely more than one of those level of key forward players every two drafts on average. Any players below that level are obviously easier to trade for or obtain as free agents.

What would be the strike rate for getting gun key forwards from the draft with say a top 20 pick? The following were all attempts to draft a gun key forward in the top 20:

2010 Day, Lynch, Watson
2011 Patton, Tomlinson?
2012 -
2013 Boyd, McCarthy, Apeness
2014 McCartin, Wright, Darcy Moore F/S? Laverde
2015 Schache, Francis, Weideman, McKay,H, Curnow, Hipwood, Himmelberg
2016 Logue?, Marshall

Now the bolded ones are the players from those drafts taken with top 20 picks who we can confidently say have become top class key forwards. Harry McKay I have marked green as he is a debatable top class forward but at the very least he is a high level forward. Moore and a few others in red as I am unsure whether they were thought of as key forward prospects.

But there is an absolute load of top 20 picks devoted to finding a gun key forward in those 7 drafts, up to 21 in all, and only 2 and possibly 3 of them have located a top class forward(2 or 3 depending where you stand on McKay.) Best case scenario you are spending 5-6 first round draft picks to get a top line key forward based on that sample.

Instead, we spent our top 20 draft picks on:

Conca, B Ellis, Valstuin, C Ellis, Lennon, D Rioli, traded for Prestia.

Are we better off, or worse off than say we spent all those picks locating one high class key forward?
 
DickieKnee said:
Name one quality KPF we could have drafted with the picks we've had over the last 10 years.
Click to expand...

I literally provided Oscar Allen over "we identified something special in CCJ" and JVR over dime a dozen HBF Brown.

"In the National Under 18 Championships, WA co-captain Allen averaged 15 disposals, six marks and booted 11 goals - winning the Larke Medal, judged as the best player in the carnival." $2 to read Cal Tuomeys draft guide and the fact a KPF won what's typically a midfielders medal surely majority of us here would've taken Allen if given the choice.

I mean I could've doubled down and also pointed out in the same timeframe we have had 329 picks and also failed to draft any quality ruckman besides Ottens who was universally considered the No. 1 pick but luckily Melbourne were stacked and chose Johnstone. Besides Benny Gale who was a CHF played out of position we've had to poach Nank, Maric, Simmons, Stafford, Dear, Justin Charles from other clubs. Please don't respond with nonsense that it's better to let other teams develop players and poach them. Tom Lynch was a once in a lifetime steal we'll never see happen again unless it's like Geelong coughing up 3x 1st rounders as compensation.

One second we're absolutely stacked with small forwards and let all of Higgins, Butler, Stengle go. (All will most likely kick an additional 200+ goals each for their respective teams on top of their recent hauls, whilst the picks of the litter we retained in Aarts, Castagna were discarded with even North Melbourne deeming them not worthy of a lifeline. And Dan Rioli was stinking it up so badly as a forward miraculously he became a success as a running defender by fluke not by design or else he would've joined them)

Even our 1st round bust picks have been plastered over by our flag success. I hope Dow becomes a player same as Brown or at least if he does go to Cattery we get adequately compensated. Dows 5th year now so I expect to see him dominate some games justifying being a 1st rounder. With Taranto, Dusty a fit Hopper, Prestia, Ross, Baker (apparently been told he's playing mid too) Graham and Sonsie, McAuliffe I don't see how we fit them all.

Other things like Adam Saad killing it for our reserves team when we were merged with Coburg and we strangely passed on a pick and let GC take him as a rookie pick 25 when he'd been under our noses for a couple of years I even remember Houli advocating for him. All the spuds we took in that actual draft are long gone too I might add. Luckily we did well with our rookie picks that year.

Who knows hopefully out of the 2021 haul Gibcus becomes Darren Gaspar, Sonsie =Broderick, Clarke = Lambert, Banks and Brown both become quality 200 gamers.

I'm just really worried that the most crucial position of KPF has had so little invested since the club was "blindsided losing Chol and CCJ at once" literally using only a mid season pick, a supplementary pick and a token mid 40's pick. if we do have a stacked hand this draft will our recruiters be able to actually identify a long term Lynch replacement or even a bung average journeyman? 40 years of failed picks says no. Hell back with our strongest ever hand Hawthorn nailed their KPF needs in 2 picks setting them up for a decade to focus on other areas of need. While we ballsed up everyone bar Deledio who realistically was picked for us.
 
richoplzbreed said:
I literally provided Oscar Allen over "we identified something special in CCJ" and JVR over dime a dozen HBF Brown.

"In the National Under 18 Championships, WA co-captain Allen averaged 15 disposals, six marks and booted 11 goals - winning the Larke Medal, judged as the best player in the carnival." $2 to read Cal Tuomeys draft guide and the fact a KPF won what's typically a midfielders medal surely majority of us here would've taken Allen if given the choice.

I mean I could've doubled down and also pointed out in the same timeframe we have had 329 picks and also failed to draft any quality ruckman besides Ottens who was universally considered the No. 1 pick but luckily Melbourne were stacked and chose Johnstone. Besides Benny Gale who was a CHF played out of position we've had to poach Nank, Maric, Simmons, Stafford, Dear, Justin Charles from other clubs. Please don't respond with nonsense that it's better to let other teams develop players and poach them. Tom Lynch was a once in a lifetime steal we'll never see happen again unless it's like Geelong coughing up 3x 1st rounders as compensation.

One second we're absolutely stacked with small forwards and let all of Higgins, Butler, Stengle go. (All will most likely kick an additional 200+ goals each for their respective teams on top of their recent hauls, whilst the picks of the litter we retained in Aarts, Castagna were discarded with even North Melbourne deeming them not worthy of a lifeline. And Dan Rioli was stinking it up so badly as a forward miraculously he became a success as a running defender by fluke not by design or else he would've joined them)

Even our 1st round bust picks have been plastered over by our flag success. I hope Dow becomes a player same as Brown or at least if he does go to Cattery we get adequately compensated. Dows 5th year now so I expect to see him dominate some games justifying being a 1st rounder. With Taranto, Dusty a fit Hopper, Prestia, Ross, Baker (apparently been told he's playing mid too) Graham and Sonsie, McAuliffe I don't see how we fit them all.

Other things like Adam Saad killing it for our reserves team when we were merged with Coburg and we strangely passed on a pick and let GC take him as a rookie pick 25 when he'd been under our noses for a couple of years I even remember Houli advocating for him. All the spuds we took in that actual draft are long gone too I might add. Luckily we did well with our rookie picks that year.

Who knows hopefully out of the 2021 haul Gibcus becomes Darren Gaspar, Sonsie =Broderick, Clarke = Lambert, Banks and Brown both become quality 200 gamers.

I'm just really worried that the most crucial position of KPF has had so little invested since the club was "blindsided losing Chol and CCJ at once" literally using only a mid season pick, a supplementary pick and a token mid 40's pick. if we do have a stacked hand this draft will our recruiters be able to actually identify a long term Lynch replacement or even a bung average journeyman? 40 years of failed picks says no. Hell back with our strongest ever hand Hawthorn nailed their KPF needs in 2 picks setting them up for a decade to focus on other areas of need. While we ballsed up everyone bar Deledio who realistically was picked for us.
Click to expand...

So in the proper draft era, roughly equating to the AFL era, we have drafted J Riewoldt and Richardson(to whom we had the inside running given his f/s status.) Key forwards and both all time greats. Which clubs have drafted more all time great key forwards in that period?

And if you think our recruiters haven't done a great job, why don't you choose a club who you think has done better, then list all picks of both clubs side by side to see how our guys rate from the picks they have had.

As things stand it seems to me you are just ranting about the failings of our recruiters without basing it on any insightful analysis.
 
richoplzbreed said:
One second we're absolutely stacked with small forwards and let all of Higgins, Butler, Stengle go. (All will most likely kick an additional 200+ goals each for their respective teams on top of their recent hauls, whilst the picks of the litter we retained in Aarts, Castagna were discarded with even North Melbourne deeming them not worthy of a lifeline. And Dan Rioli was stinking it up so badly as a forward miraculously he became a success as a running defender by fluke not by design or else he would've joined them)
Click to expand...

We won Premierships not playing these guys. You can't be 100% sure we win 2019 if we play Butler over Rioli or Castagna. Rioli had his one good game for the season in the GABBA final, George was good in the Prelim. Then in 2020 you want to play a completely out of form Higgins? If players miss a premiership it's fine for them to want to leave. Look at Adams at Collingwood and he only missed through injury. The only way to keep these guys would have been to play them in those finals. It's fair to say Dimma got it right.
 
Michaels said:
I feel the club has made a conscious decision in recent times to steer away from drafting KPF because they can be very hit and miss all the while absorbing a lot of your resources, time and energy for maybe no return.

instead we are targeting forwards via the trade / free agency periods whereby we are going after already developed players who are known quantities.

It's not the worst strategy.
Click to expand...
Very much this. Recruiting on a whole has changed a lot in the last 10-15 years even.

The key forwards are so much more difficult to project. Also look at the access clubs had to high end picks through that period of GWS and Gold Coast coming in. So many concessions that access to the really good Key Forwards was even less than normal.

Boyd, Patton, Day, Grainger-Barrass, Lukosius, Brander, Schache, Francis, Weideman, McCartin, Wright, Tomlinson, Butcher, Watts, Johnston, Gumbleton, Thorp the list goes on really.

All these guys were top 15 picks that in reality were busts compared to what was projected of them.

I’m quite happy and comfortable the approach the club has taken to recruiting Key Forwards. I guess it was helped by nailing Riewoldt
 
Groupie_ said:
they arent any good
Click to expand...
One trick ponies. They are fine players overhead albiet not the most reliable kickers. But when the ball goes to ground they are a under average for their size, bordering on liabilities. Also injury prone.

Defensively not good players either.

I don't think they either will be top tier key forwards over their career. Might have a lucky season or two with pristine midfield delivery but that's it.
 
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