Prediction Changes v Crows

[Martyn_30_]

I don’t see any reason for it not be in Ballarat given the amount of games in Melbourne right now, I’m assuming it would also be a huge financial blow to the club.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BEaston]

In: Dunkley, Wood, Crozier
Out: R Smith, Keath, Richards

Need to start bringing in players that will be a part of our finals team for some continuity. Wood & Crozier both needed given our 2 first choice KPDs.

Crozier isn't in our 8 best defenders.

Keath, Gardner, Wood, Daniel, Dale, Williams, Duryea, Richards and probably even Cordy are ahead of him currently.

He is not defending aerially this year, he has regressed 1v1 and his disposal is average. Just don't see how he's close to best 22 this year.

 

[Golden_6]

Crozier isn't in our 8 best defenders.

Keath, Gardner, Wood, Daniel, Dale, Williams, Duryea, Richards and probably even Cordy are ahead of him currently.

He is not defending aerially this year, he has regressed 1v1 and his disposal is average. Just don't see how he's close to best 22 this year.

I agree when we are healthy but we’re missing Keath, Gardner & Richards with Daniel spending a lot of time up field. I think he needs to come in with Woody for the next few weeks to help Cordy & Schache in the air. If he doesn’t find form against some weaker opposition then he’ll be out of our finals team.

 

[Roogal]

Stay tuned for Lockdown announcements for Victoria over the next two days. That may determine one of the biggest changes of all for the week. The game will be either played here:



or changed to here:



Time will tell, and be prepared that crowd numbers may be very limited at either venue (if crowds are permitted back at all to venues) given the VIC Government's very conservative approach to how we come out of lockdowns. If there are no crowds, then the advantage goes to Ballarat where the Bulldogs at least get reimbursed $300,000 for playing a game in Ballarat (with no crowd), where as the AFL incurs complete loss if the game is played before anything less than 22,000 at Marvel.

I'm predicting that they will allow 25-50% crowds at the footy for the first couple of weeks and strict mask wearing outside the venues (in consideration of the fiasco at AAMI Park two weeks ago). The image below shows crowds lined up outside gate seven at AAMI Park before the AUS v FRA game which later turned out to be a spreader event ... :



The crowd controllers are likely to be vigilant on excessive movement.

If the game is played at Marvel, we might expect that it will likely be played with the roof open irrespective of the weather, which is forecast to be quite windy in Victoria next weekend with some showers in both Melbourne and Ballarat. At least it is forecast to be an unseasonal Northerly which means that it will be warmer than normal. Melbourne forecast to be 19 degrees with 80% chance of showers, while Ballarat forecast at 15 degrees with 90% chance of showers.

 

[Libbaaaa]

No chance crowds are allowed in Melbourne, even if we ‘exit’ lockdown.

 

[doggies ftw]

Yeah I dunno why this is looking like being an MCG game, if there’s no crowds it should be under the roof at Marvel. Close the ******* roof ffs the thought that it could actually make even 0.0000000000001% difference is just plain ridiculous. I’d say the fact that it’s ******* freezing with the roof open and the wind will swirl at docklands means it’s probably more likely people will be spreading droplets that carry around the stadium with the roof open

 

[BEaston]

I agree when we are healthy but we’re missing Keath, Gardner & Richards with Daniel spending a lot of time up field. I think he needs to come in with Woody for the next few weeks to help Cordy & Schache in the air. If he doesn’t find form against some weaker opposition then he’ll be out of our finals team.

Fair point, I agree we could use him in the meantime. I guess I was addressing the part of your post about bringing in our team for finals (with Croz as an in). I might have connected dots erroneously there.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

Keath for Young - Schache was great but his ruck work was also good but when he went in it left us with one tall in the backline. Could also play more Juice in ruck and play one less tall in defence.

- Adelaide will play Tex (Schache) Fogarty (Cordy) and a third tall - Himmelberg or Thilthorpe (Young). This is a better forward line than Melb and could get off the chain - hopefully Wood will help this and play third man up for marks.

Richards for Wood - clear change - if Wood not ready then Crozier.

Dunkley for Scott - Dunkley has to come in so probably Scott or Roarke and I like Roarkes hardness and run just a bit more. Will be replaced by Trelor when he returns.

Roarke to the sub. Or could be JJ. VDM will come in for JJ if he doesn’t lift his involvement.

 

[Mutt]

Bevo will probably drop schache

Not a chance. Bevo was very complimentary of Schache in his presser.

 

[hatescaptcha]

OUT: Keath, Richards, R.Smith (Scott back out also).
IN: Wood, Crozier, Dunkley


Williams, Wood, Crozier and Duryea can all help cover talls, come across and compete in the air. So that should be enough with Schache and Cordy. To beat Adelaide forwards.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Anja_Nees]

No way we rest anyone from here on. We need to make sure we finish top 2 to ensure maximum advantage in September. With Covid who knows what will get thrown at us.

With you on this. We have a week off before finals and it would surprise no one if a game coming up were postponed anyway.

 

[random__hero]

Saturday night. 7:25pm at the MCG.

I believe Ess & Syd can’t be Fri night as they’ve already had their 5 day break game.
Potentially St.K Vs Carl which will be an assault on the senses.

 

[Pugz89]

Out: Keath, Richards, Scott
In: Dunkley, Young, Lipinski (sub)

 

[Pugz89]

Stay tuned for Lockdown announcements for Victoria over the next two days. That may determine one of the biggest changes of all for the week. The game will be either played here:

View attachment 1186240

or changed to here:

View attachment 1186242

Time will tell, and be prepared that crowd numbers may be very limited at either venue (if crowds are permitted back at all to venues) given the VIC Government's very conservative approach to how we come out of lockdowns. If there are no crowds, then the advantage goes to Ballarat where the Bulldogs at least get reimbursed $300,000 for playing a game in Ballarat (with no crowd), where as the AFL incurs complete loss if the game is played before anything less than 22,000 at Marvel.

I'm predicting that they will allow 25-50% crowds at the footy for the first couple of weeks and strict mask wearing outside the venues (in consideration of the fiasco at AAMI Park two weeks ago). The image below shows crowds lined up outside gate seven at AAMI Park before the AUS v FRA game which later turned out to be a spreader event ... :

View attachment 1186251

The crowd controllers are likely to be vigilant on excessive movement.

If the game is played at Marvel, we might expect that it will likely be played with the roof open irrespective of the weather, which is forecast to be quite windy in Victoria next weekend with some showers in both Melbourne and Ballarat. At least it is forecast to be an unseasonal Northerly which means that it will be warmer than normal. Melbourne forecast to be 19 degrees with 80% chance of showers, while Ballarat forecast at 15 degrees with 90% chance of showers.

Gut says lockdown will ease in regional Vic, but still won't be crowds anywhere this week. 20% crowds in regional Vic next week with 20% at Melbourne grounds the following week. So Round 22 20% crowds in Melbourne is my prediction. Round 23 33% capacity. All going well, maybe 50% capacity for first week of finals.

 

[bobs head soup]

I've got no idea on ins but presuming 1 or 2 long term injuries are close to returning and Dunks comes straight in

Other than Keath and Richards injuries the only 2 whose impact on the game was minimal and could reasonably make way for mine were R.Smith and Scott.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Roarke Smith

37

Roarke Smith

Age

27

Ht

184cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.7

3star

K

5.6

2star

HB

6.1

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.4

2star

No current season stats available

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

will tag Seedsman like he tagged Langdon. He has a role being able to not lose concentration and the athletic ability to run with the oppositon's wingman. It also means that the player on the other wing (Daniel, Johannisen, Hunter etc) can look to accumulate on their end, knowing that Roarke has the opposite with of the ground covered.

 

[X_box_X]

Mc Neil was a little down in his last game. Not sure I'd bring him back. Wood's hammies in freezing ol' Ballarat might be a consideration....

I doubt we'll play in Ballarat but who knows

 

[Roogal]

Gut says lockdown will ease in regional Vic, but still won't be crowds anywhere this week. 20% crowds in regional Vic next week with 20% at Melbourne grounds the following week. So Round 22 20% crowds in Melbourne is my prediction. Round 23 33% capacity. All going well, maybe 50% capacity for first week of finals.

Not sure, there have been cases in regional Vic this time, the same restrictions may apply across the state, which means that we may see an equal easing of restrictions in metro and country. I guess that all will be revealed on Tuesday morning. Fans will need to get in quick if they want to book to go to games at any venue, because even in the best case scenario at the MCG with 20% crowds, that still only equates to 20,000. The Government are going to likely be extra cautious over the next month or so in order not to compromise this year's AFL Finals. I don't think that there is any appetite in Victoria this year to see the finals spirited away to Queensland again.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Not sure, there have been cases in regional Vic this time, the same restrictions may apply across the state, which means that we may see an equal easing of restrictions in metro and country. I guess that all will be revealed on Tuesday morning. Fans will need to get in quick if they want to book to go to games at any venue, because even in the best case scenario at the MCG with 20% crowds, that still only equates to 20,000. The Government are going to likely be extra cautious over the next month or so in order not to compromise this year's AFL Finals. I don't think that there is any appetite in Victoria this year to see the finals spirited away to Queensland again.

It is not the crowd number that is the problem, but the herding of large numbers of people through narrow entrance gates. CHO commented that those contracting COVID were sitting no where near each other, so presumably they got it at the bar or whilst being herded through narrow entrances.

Staggering entry into single files and closing the bars should be a no brainer. Also not crowding the fans into one section of the ground like they did when we played the cats also is needed.

Would have thought Mars stadium would be a lot better at separating fans than the bigger grounds.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Roarke Smith will tag Seedsman like he tagged Langdon. He has a role being able to not lose concentration and the athletic ability to run with the oppositon's wingman. It also means that the player on the other wing (Daniel, Johannisen, Hunter etc) can look to accumulate on their end, knowing that Roarke has the opposite with of the ground covered.

Roarke could genuinely be this year's Shane Biggs. Far from a star footballer, and looks awful on the stat sheet, but plays an important role in the side

 

[BrunswickDog]

I think we need to temper the schache hype.

I am a schache fan and am wrapped he got another opportunity and took it this time.

But, he arguably played against the slowest key forward combo in the league on a wet night.

Good start for the guy, but walker and fogarty will be a real test. Both are bullocking kpf's, which seems to work against him. We will see. I hope he proves me wrong.

My changes are:

In: dunkley wood
Out: richards keith

 

[ScragCity]

I think we need to temper the schache hype.

I am a schache fan and am wrapped he got another opportunity and took it this time.

But, he arguably played against the slowest key forward combo in the league on a wet night.

Good start for the guy, but walker and fogarty will be a real test. Both are bullocking kpf's, which seems to work against him. We will see. I hope he proves me wrong.

My changes are:

In: dunkley wood
Out: richards keith

Hes the best key back we've had since Lake

 

[Roogal]

It is not the crowd number that is the problem, but the herding of large numbers of people through narrow entrance gates. CHO commented that those contracting COVID were sitting no where near each other, so presumably they got it at the bar or whilst being herded through narrow entrances.

Staggering entry into single files and closing the bars should be a no brainer. Also not crowding the fans into one section of the ground like they did when we played the cats also is needed.

Would have thought Mars stadium would be a lot better at separating fans than the bigger grounds.

You are totally right, and the image posted above from AAMI Park says it all. I see no reason why Victoria cannot have 50% crowds for the finals and 75% for the GF as long as Victoria sustains its vaccination rates and there are no more lockdowns between now and then. Victoria is averageing 40,000 vaccinations per-day with 5.2 million first and second doses likely to have been administered by then, with around 4 million of those being first doses which equates to roughly 60% of Victorians being partially vaccinated and 1.2 million (19%) fully vaccinated by the end of September.

There have been important lessons learned from the MCG and AAMI Park spreads recently, and you can bet your bottom dollar that they will hawkishly manage crowd movement for the remainder of this season. The AFL cannot afford to get it wrong at this point in time, and Victorian businesses seriously cannot afford another lockdown.

 

[badkicking]

Richards injury probably saves him otherwise he’d be most likely to make way for Dunkley. Hopefully Treloar takes his spot sooner rather than later

Surely Crozier is a better option than Roarke Smith, he does not look like getting involved in the game, and do not forget the 5 contested marks taken on him in the last quarter of the St.Kilda final last year.

 

[Bulldog Brent]