Vic Victorian Election 2022

[magpies2013]

I would like Jacinta Allan as leader. Think she does a great job

 

[dusty1234!]

I would like Jacinta Allan as leader. Think she does a great job

Personally would like Jill Hennesy, Merlino has done surpisingly well, but she has always been my favourite

 

[Jascave]

Where is a election predictor like ie in the US presidential election where users can pick how many states in the US Electoral College the Republican and Democrat nominee need to become President so we can project the winner of the 2022 Victorian state election?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Where is a election predictor like ie in the US presidential election where users can pick how many states in the US Electoral College the Republican and Democrat nominee need to become President so we can project the winner of the 2022 Victorian state election?

1) we dont have the timing for an election yet

2) preselections are still ongoing, and more importantly nominations are not final (important for us as minors/indi's play a bigger role in our parliament than in the usa)

 

[dusty1234!]

Where is a election predictor like ie in the US presidential election where users can pick how many states in the US Electoral College the Republican and Democrat nominee need to become President so we can project the winner of the 2022 Victorian state election?

YAPms - Yet Another Political Map Simulator

Create and share maps of countries across the world.

www.yapms.com

Well there isn't one for state elections, but here is one for federal...

 

[Jascave]

The problems for the Victorian Liberals is that they really don't have anyone of note who will not only take the fight up to Daniel Andrews and the Labor government, but also make it a real contest of it at next year's state election. For the Victorian Liberals to go with the same leader (Matthew Guy) who led them to one of their worst election defeats in 2018, clearly indicates that they are not fair dinkum about winning the election. In fact, the way they are going now, they look more and more likely to cop an even bigger thrashing than the 2018 result, unless some long overdue changes (in terms of their parliamentry team and their backroom staff) are made between now and November 2022.

 

[Rob R]

Personally would like Jill Hennesy, Merlino has done surpisingly well, but she has always been my favourite

It's telling isnt it that the ALP has at least three (Allan, Hennessey, Merlino) options better than the LNP (or Andrews who deserves to go).

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NSWCROW]

What's the latest he can call one ?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

What's the latest he can call one ?

Election type	Latest Saturday
Representatives only	3 September 2022
Half-senate only	21 May 2022
Representatives + half-senate	21 May 2022
Double dissolution (requires trigger)	5 March 2022

 

[NSWCROW]

Election type	Latest Saturday
Representatives only	3 September 2022
Half-senate only	21 May 2022
Representatives + half-senate	21 May 2022
Double dissolution (requires trigger)	5 March 2022

Shirko can't leave it any later than May too iirc but bet my last dollar he's waiting for Dan to go 1st

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Shirko can't leave it any later than May too iirc but bet my last dollar he's waiting for Dan to go 1st

dan cant, vic has fixed term elections

 

[NSWCROW]

dan cant, vic has fixed term elections

Can't what ?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Can't what ?

go before the feds. vic election is nov 26, 2022

 

[Pessimistic]

The problems for the Victorian Liberals is that they really don't have anyone of note who will not only take the fight up to Daniel Andrews and the Labor government, but also make it a real contest of it at next year's state election. For the Victorian Liberals to go with the same leader (Matthew Guy) who led them to one of their worst election defeats in 2018, clearly indicates that they are not fair dinkum about winning the election. In fact, the way they are going now, they look more and more likely to cop an even bigger thrashing than the 2018 result, unless some long overdue changes (in terms of their parliamentry team and their backroom staff) are made between now and November 2022.

jeffs succession planning in action….

 

[Jascave]

There are a couple of questions in regards to the Victorian election next year, and they are:

1)What seats do we need to watch out for on election night?
2) What sort of swing do the Coalition need for a change of government?

 

[eddiesmith]

There are a couple of questions in regards to the Victorian election next year, and they are:

1)What seats do we need to watch out for on election night?
2) What sort of swing do the Coalition need for a change of government?

About 7.4% which apparently would be the biggest swing in the history of Australian elections...

 

[Millky95]

There are a couple of questions in regards to the Victorian election next year, and they are:

1)What seats do we need to watch out for on election night?
2) What sort of swing do the Coalition need for a change of government?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Victorian_state_election#Electoral_pendulum as a rough guide I guess:

1. From a Lib marginal seat:

Ripon	Louise Staley	LIB	0.02%
Caulfield	David Southwick	LIB	0.2%
Sandringham	Brad Rowswell	LIB	0.6%
Gembrook	Brad Battin	LIB	0.7%

Labor:

Bayswater	Jackson Taylor	ALP	0.3%
Hawthorn	John Kennedy	ALP	0.4%
Nepean	Chris Brayne	ALP	0.9%

Are all the ones under 1%

But interestingly listed under marginal for Liberal:

Kew	Tim Smith	LIB	4.7%
Bulleen	Matthew Guy	LIB	5.7%

So we could see those two lose their seats

2. I don't know how swings are calculated but Liberals need 18 more seats to get a majority and 11 to get back the seats they lost in the last election Guy was in charge for

 

[The Punter]

There's a redistribution of seats which will be completed by the end of this month. Wait for making predictions until after then.

 

[Kwality]

The problems for the Victorian Liberals is that they really don't have anyone of note who will not only take the fight up to Daniel Andrews and the Labor government, but also make it a real contest of it at next year's state election. For the Victorian Liberals to go with the same leader (Matthew Guy) who led them to one of their worst election defeats in 2018, clearly indicates that they are not fair dinkum about winning the election. In fact, the way they are going now, they look more and more likely to cop an even bigger thrashing than the 2018 result, unless some long overdue changes (in terms of their parliamentry team and their backroom staff) are made between now and November 2022.

All true as of today, but similar views were held about Kennett (Howard). Andrews has to lose support, all Guy can do is present a united front (herding cats), & hope the electorate are sick of Dan.

Dealing with economy may be a poison chalice.

 

[mighty tiges]

The updated Victorian Electoral boundaries have been finalised.


Final report link: EBC Report on the Redivision of Victorian Electoral Boundaries 2020-2021 - Web version full report.pdf

Electoral Maps link: Victorian State Electoral Boundaries Map (ebc.vic.gov.au)

Graphics key:

* Shaded purple/green/blue/red areas are the old electoral boundaries.

* White outlined zones are the new electoral boundaries.

 

[mighty tiges]

Looks like Martin Pakula will have to move across town to one of the new split electorates in the Western Suburbs. His current seat of Keysborough has been absorbed into the four surrounding seats which are already held by the ALP. The only 'new' seat in the SE suburbs is further out in Berwick which will likely be a new marginal seat.

One the other side of the aisle, Louise Staley looks in trouble in Ripon. The seat has lost Charlton, Donald and Stawell (traditional LNP areas) and gained more of Ballarat (ALP area in the modern era). She only won the seat last time by a mere 15 votes.

 

[dusty1234!]

Looks like Martin Pakula will have to move across town to one of the new split electorates in the Western Suburbs. His current seat of Keysborough has been absorbed into the four surrounding seats which are already held by the ALP. The only 'new' seat in the SE suburbs is further out in Berwick which will likely be a new marginal seat.

One the other side of the aisle, Louise Staley looks in trouble in Ripon. The seat has lost Charlton, Donald and Stawell (traditional LNP areas) and gained more of Ballarat (ALP area in the modern era). She only won the seat last time by a mere 15 votes.

I don't think many will appreciate her conspiricacy nonsence when Dan got injured

 

[dusty1234!]

https://antonygreen.com.au/new-victorian-state-electoral-boundaries-finalised/

 

[Jascave]

Let's say if the car accident involving Shadow Attorney General Tim happened not yesterday, but this time next year, with the 2022 state election only a couple of weeks away. What chance will the Victorian Liberals have of winning the state election if that was to occur?

 

[dusty1234!]

Let's say if the car accident involving Shadow Attorney General Tim happened not yesterday, but this time next year, with the 2022 state election only a couple of weeks away. What chance will the Victorian Liberals have of winning the state election if that was to occur?

Same as now
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