I would guess that Florent, Warner, Wicks, Gulden and one of Fox/COR would be start-up best 22 in the coaches minds and would need to crash and burn (or be injured of course) to be overtaken. Not just be a little bit off. Plus their potential replacements would need to train the house down a la Papley, Gulden's debuts.I think he's certainly in the first handful or so, but given he was rated by the coaches, he's obviously doing his job according to them. I also think he's been unfairly maligned. Yeah, he's not the star we hoped (at least yet), but even in the games where he had some shocking blunders (albeit trying to take the game on, something people have cried out for), there were crickets when he did good things afterwards. It does seem to be a trend on here (not you specifically), that unless you do something spectacular, either good or bad, you don't really get noticed that much.
The way I see it, there's a group of players who will be named even if they have an average pre-season. If they struggle with injury, or just lose all ability to play the game being the exceptions.
Then there's a group that could be overtaken by others, or just not make it in, if they're average (poor). Now the coaching staff might have favourites (it has been known to happen), but if they have quiet pre-seasons, the following should be facing the chop (assuming there's others ready). In my particular order, and with players that were in or around the senior team at the end of season:
Bell
McLean
Melican
Wicks
Chad Warner
Florent
Gulden
COR/Fox (simply have to play one of them IMO)
Replacements?:
Florent Campbell or reshuffle JMac to wing
Warner Reshuffle
Wicks Sheather
Gulden Campbell
Fox/COR COR/Fox
Hard to see any of the draftees getting a game Rd1. Strangely, I think the most game ready is probably Roberts who had a fair bit of senior footy and appears very composed.