Autopsy Round 10 - West Coast v St Kilda

[Saintbloke]

I agree with this. He made one bad error, but overall was taking some good marks.

Gus was ok, and no worse than a few others and should get another game.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Gus was ok, and no worse than a few others and should get another game.

4 turnovers from 7 disposals as a defender isn't okay. Reminds me of a shorter Tom Highmore. Good in the air but not up to AFL standard with ball in hand.

 

[StCicatriz]

To be fair to PJay’s and to be devil’s advocate, really think he’s just trying to provide some commentary and analysis around why the performance was so poor. I think we all get and know it wasn’t up to scratch, and all of us left incredibly disappointed and frustrated.

He’s correct to an extent, a lot of us (maybe not Saints fans, but footy fans and pundits in general) had us close to bottom 4. I had us around there as strong possibility, but was hoping we might push closer to just outside the top 8, and we came out strong in earlier rounds which had us buoyed.

We’ve cut back the list quite heavily, yeah that alone isn’t reasonable explanation in itself for this sort of performance but it provides context and perspective. We’ve had serious alarm bells against Eagles in last 2-3 times we’ve come over too, so I don’t necessarily think the weekend was a complete and utter surprise.

Our senior crop I’m not sure can tow the line consistently anymore, at least not during a disrupted season with Marshall, Steele (past his best), Sinclair, Wood, King, etc all out for periods of time.

What I don’t get is the commentary when we’re doing well that, “Ross isn’t the right coach, he over performs, we can’t get draft capital as a result” - so then we square back close to a bottom 4 team and it’s basically “this is horrible, absolutely not good enough, underperforming, etc”. Can’t have your cake and eat it too.

It’s not exactly a particularly difficult task to identify the weekend’s result wasn’t up to standard, pin point holes, and it was clearly right at the bottom end where we see this side performing with games against Richmond, Port, Cats and Dockers towards the other end. Perhaps, some commentary, perspective and context around why it’s s*** might be a better and more constructive way to go.

I would see the season something like:

• Good - List depth has been tested and clearly not there, but we’ve seen green shoots with players like Caminiti down back, and Higgins, Nas, Owens continue to take their game to another level.
• Bad - Who on earth said putting Butler in the leadership group was decision of the season? Our leadership mix isn’t right, Steele is on borrowed time, and the sooner we chuck Higgins in there, make Wilkie captain, and fast-track Nas, Owens and Pou in there I think we’ll start to see a clearer vision.
• Ugly - Poor conditioning has been a long term issue, we’ve churned through footy departments, coaches and list managers in last 15 years which offers zero opportunity for success, and there’s been zero governance with getting this right or successfully integrating our commercial and footy streams.

"What I don’t get is the commentary when we’re doing well that, “Ross isn’t the right coach, he over performs, we can’t get draft capital as a result” - so then we square back close to a bottom 4 team and it’s basically “this is horrible, absolutely not good enough, underperforming, etc”. Can’t have your cake and eat it too."

just on this i think the point about ross getting the list to where it over performs is more in relation to going from a side that's mid table and playing finals to one that's ultimately going to win a flag. ross has traditionally taken lists and got everything he could out of them. I would consider his finals appearance with us as an example of that. so if we think we don't have the list required and we think we need high end elite talent, he's not the coach you go for, as he will always produce results that are above your real actualised position for the list you have, thereby robbing your self of needed draft collateral (opportunity cost). this ultimately leads to a massive drop off when senior parts of the list stop performing in their latter years or they retire or get traded out (maybe this is what we could be starting to see the beginning of). this is exactly what i would describe ross as. if your aim is get the absolute best out of them and really try shake a flag loose, hes the one. the narrative around ratten's sacking would suggest that was the case.

moving onto the bottom 4 club statement. i do not think this is a list of a bottom 4 club. i think the aim should have been finals this year. worst case next year. i would have put us in or around the 8. can anyone see a world where ross misses finals this year and next and everyone's ok going into season 2027? that's no finals for 3 seasons!

there's no question we under performed against WCE on the weekend. we should not be losing to a club like west coast, home or away, given the broader context around how they have performance over the last 3 years to date. especially when you consider we were winning all the markers, had more of the ball, more contested possessions, we just couldn't move it successfully from the back half to a scoring opportunity and turned it over in too many critical passages. this sums it up really well:

having said that i think we are now starting to get a solid line where we could be under performing and listening to Ross press conferences he is highlighting the areas we are regressing in. we went from a midfield that was spluttering (in his words) for a season or two now. to a side where midfield isnt just spluttering but our stronger points in our defensive line and our transition from the back half to scoring opportunities is also now wavering. he has mentioned this a couple of times at least now. its starting to sound like the "midfield is spluttering" comments he was making. so i think we are starting to have this form line where we are under performing based on what we saw in ross first season back and how the list has matured since then. the problem is i don't think we will under perform enough to ever drop into the bottom 4, which is where you want to be if you want a full rebuild of the list.

TBH this whole confusion is a bi product of this whole dual narrative bullshit. which lets be honest, its designed to remove any expectation on the club, where either result good or bad is acceptable. if we challenge and look like making finals then we are getting the outcome we hoped for. if we don't and we have another poor year then that's equally ok as we are rebuilding. this is exactly the type of behaviour that lands you mid table before the inevitable collapse of the list, bulk sackings in the footy dept and re-set/start of another rebuild. i think its happening because of the constant egg on face moments we had with the presidents commentary around setting an expectation on where the club will finish and the trajectory we were on under ratten. one moment we were challenging, the next we needed a full review because the results were unacceptable, the next we were rebuilding and the early signs was that the review worked, to the review worked, to going back to needing another review. rinse and repeat.

at some point there needs to be clear direction. are we challenging or aren't we? and if we aren't challenging, when do we think this will happen?

 

[StCicatriz]

Also re Gus. He made one very bad error.

So did Sincs
So did Naz
So did McRae
So does Doug when plays

Prior to that I thought he defended and intercepted well.

Let’s remember that

i think the sub was probably more about trying to get us back into the fight by restructuring the side than his errant handball.

if you take Ross comments around the backline, i think he's trying to breathe life back into it, whilst getting NAS and Sinclair more midfield minutes. maybe a bit of like for like with stocker, which ross tends to do, keep the same structure but change the personnel.

i think we have bigger issues than Gus.

i'm more concerned how things look when McRae is injured (given his age this would be a possibility moving fwd) and Steele looking like he's done. beyond that its not looking good. Zac Jones aint going to drive this side forward and given what we recruited him for, has been a pretty under whelming trade. Hunter Clark aint it, looks another wasted first round pick.

its a bit disappointing that after so many years the leaders of our midfield are two trade acquisitions.

the rest is all potential but looking very green.

 

[Saintbloke]

4 turnovers from 7 disposals as a defender isn't okay. Reminds me of a shorter Tom Highmore. Good in the air but not up to AFL standard with ball in hand.

On par with half our team- no good with ball in hand. One game doesn't make a career- Collard is being gifted games, and he is nowhere near it.

 

[littlecreatures]

There’s a bit to unpack.

this ultimately leads to a massive drop off when senior parts of the list stop performing in their latter years or they retire or get traded out (maybe this is what we could be starting to see the beginning of). this is exactly what i would describe ross as. if your aim is get the absolute best out of them and really try shake a flag loose, hes the one. the narrative around ratten's sacking would suggest that was the case.

Agree, but I think re. Ratten’s sacking people tend to make of it what they will and there was also various statements at the time around hitting the draft, and potentially going back to go forward which left it quite open ended.

Critical and wholesale changes to the list since then shows in itself the direction of the club and realistically we’re not challenging.

The ins and outs from Ratten’s last game to the side Ross put out on the weekend is quite telling in itself without a deeper dive into the full list as opposed to game day.

Ins:

• Liam O’Connell (age 22 & 6 matches)
• Hugo Garcia (age 20 & 19 matches)
• Mattaes Philipou (age 21 & 39 matches)
• Anthony Caminiti (age 22 & 43 matches)
• Angus McLennan (age 23 & 5 matches)
• Jack Macrae (age 31 & 259 matches)
• Cooper Sharman (age 25 & 57 matches)
• Darcy Wilson (age 20 & 33 matches)
• Ryan Byrnes (age 24 & 73 matches)
• Jimmy Webster (age 32 & 175 matches)
• Mason Wood (age 32 & 143 matches)
• Max Hall (age 23 & 10 matches)
• Lance Collard (age 20 & 12 matches)
• Tobie Travaglia (age 19 & 5 matches)
• Mitchito Owens (age 22 & 62 matches)

Outs:

• Max King
• Tom Campbell
• Seb Ross
• Ben Long
• Dan Hannebery
• Dan Butler
• Jarred Lienert
• Dean Kent
• Josh Battle
• Dougald Howard
• Ben Paton
• Hunter Clark
• Zak Jones
• Tim Membrey

i do not think this is a list of a bottom 4 club. i think the aim should have been finals this year. worst case next year. i would have put us in or around the 8. can anyone see a world where ross misses finals this year and next and everyone's ok going into season 2027? that's no finals for 3 seasons!

I don’t think anyone aims to be bottom 4, and I think most of us including the club had finals as an aim this year, but realistically noting quote above and the point around potentially our senior cohort already dropping away or at the bare minimum the season having been impacted heavily by lack of personnel, structure and lack of list depth.

I think most sides in our position (mid table) have a rough range where they’re likely to compete, and our limit probably being just scraping finals to towards the bottom 4. Clearly, there’s a lot of varying factors going into a season (or a game, run of games) and where a side ends up landing.

there's no question we under performed against WCE on the weekend. we should not be losing to a club like west coast, home or away, given the broader context around how they have performance over the last 3 years to date. especially when you consider we were winning all the markers, had more of the ball, more contested possessions, we just couldn't move it successfully from the back half to a scoring opportunity and turned it over in too many critical passages. this sums it up really well:

By and large, yes. As far as I’m aware, I don’t think anyone’s disputing this. Unfortunately, games of footy aren’t linear. You only need to look to Lions drawing to North, losing to Melbourne, GWS losing quite considerably to Freo, etc. We’re not immune to this whether we like it or not, and I don’t think anyone’s doing high fives and cartwheels after the weekend’s loss, to be fair.

Agree 100% in terms of the game analysis. I guess next question is why we’re seeing these deviations in basic skill execution and form across periods.

having said that i think we are now starting to get a solid line where we could be under performing and listening to Ross press conferences he is highlighting the areas we are regressing in. we went from a midfield that was spluttering (in his words) for a season or two now. to a side where midfield isnt just spluttering but our stronger points in our defensive line and our transition from the back half to scoring opportunities is also now wavering. he has mentioned this a couple of times at least now. its starting to sound like the "midfield is spluttering" comments he was making. so i think we are starting to have this form line where we are under performing based on what we saw in ross first season back and how the list has matured since then. the problem is i don't think we will under perform enough to ever drop into the bottom 4, which is where you want to be if you want a full rebuild of the list.

Agree, but I think it’s much more symptomatic of our list health as opposed necessarily to any of the lines in isolation.

I think Ross has demonstrated he can address or resolve some of these issues in isolation, but it comes at a cumulative cost when we’re robbing Peter to pay Paul until we resolve the underlying issue which is the list capability and engine room.

We’re paying the price for churning through footy department, list management, coaching panels through the best part of just under 15 years. That’s a governance issue and unfortunately the cyclical nature of AFL clubs doesn’t lend itself to maintaining any level of accountability or meaningful change.

TBH this whole confusion is a bi product of this whole dual narrative bullshit. which lets be honest, its designed to remove any expectation on the club, where either result good or bad is acceptable…..

at some point there needs to be clear direction. are we challenging or aren't we? and if we aren't challenging, when do we think this will happen?

It’s a long bow to draw IMO. List management since Ross has arrived tells you all you need to know I think in terms of the final question.

I’d be surprised if the club comes outright and tells you this, for variety of reasons, but some of that comes back to managing our own expectations.

As time goes on to be fair, I do think the messaging from the club around getting games into youth has been fairly indicative, but make of it what you will I guess.

I suspect the club will be loathe to apply specific markers, but to be fair most clubs are these days (e.g., Dogs last year at the top of my head).

 

[Baldur]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

Well it was not the best of times, the worst? No but the bottom is in view from where we stand. We have the basis of a team that can be very good in time with one clear weakness, the midfield. Fix that, adopt a game plan that suits and construct a confidence and we take off. But it could all fall apart as well.