Review R12: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly vs. Sydney Swans

[Golumless]

I was trying to find xscore for the Sydney game. Where do you get these numbers?

Why the best stats site on the interwebs

AFL Match Stats

AFL Match Stats

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[feenix67]

Like when you said Gollant would get picked up by another side. I don't hold it against you even though it was a crime and you should probably be jailed for saying it.

HEY! He did get picked up - by Williamstown

I reckon Im about 50/50 on making calls on players - big fails on Himmelberg and Schoey (Im still an optimist on Schoey but jeez). I saw a lot of Jack Gunston in Lachie but sadly that was a mirage. I also had doubts about RT early days and probably would have picked McDonald if I had been making the pick - so thank God Im not the list manager! I had Langford over Sid last draft. I love Sid but Langford is going well so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

HEY! He did get picked up - by Williamstown

I reckon Im about 50/50 on making calls on players - big fails on Himmelberg and Schoey (Im still an optimist on Schoey but jeez). I saw a lot of Jack Gunston in Lachie but sadly that was a mirage. I also had doubts about RT early days and probably would have picked McDonald if I had been making the pick - so thank God Im not the list manager! I had Langford over Sid last draft. I love Sid but Langford is going well so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

You hang around here long enough and you're going to make some shit footy calls. We've all done it. There are posters that know way more about footy than me that have face planted at times so I don't feel that bad about the calls I get wrong.

 

[kirky]

Why the best stats site on the interwebs

AFL Match Stats

AFL Match Stats

www.wheeloratings.com

Interestingly, the Port vs Adel game we performed above expectations and they below.

 

[Golumless]

Interestingly, the Port vs Adel game we performed above expectations and they below.

Can't steal games if you don't kick well. That was one we stole, as Butters/JHF/Bergman completely smashed our midfield after the first quarter.

It also won't surprise Ports fans to find out they're the second worst team in front of goal this year.

 

[CrowBloke]

That's not a Murray thing, that's been a hallmark of Nicks sides in the last 3 years. Pretty much once we get it half way, we're usually one of the most efficient teams out.

Interesting comments, thanks.
I'll be honest; I hadn't noticed (2023-24). My impression was that high bombs out of centre or from either wing were almost our default method (Laird the worst offender, to a lesser extent also Mrouch and Smith).
In fact, in 2022-23 I thought the deep, high bombs were a deliberate tactic to minimise our losses ie they were preferable to a mid-field turnover because the ball spent more time in the air and took longer to transition (by the oppo) to their F50 <== I'm not being facetious here.
I have no stats to prove it, though; just an impression.

But this year, I noticed very early on that there was much more emphasis on getting into space, showing composure and pausing to look for a best option. I put that down to the new chums (ANB and Peatling) and a natural improvement by others

The issue has been getting the ball out of defense.

That has definitely improved in the last 5-6 weeks, although kicking-in after a point is still an issue but we have better marking options like Thilthorpe when he plays up the ground and Curtin.

A side-issue, Worrell's and Keane's marking have improved too.

That said, the focus on lowering the eyes may be the silver lining of the 2023 missed opportunity. Since then, our shot selection has improved markedly, going from an xScore of 3.09 (which is really bad) to a league average 3.28 in the past two years (and Adelaide has been top 4 in goal accuracy in these two years).

Sorry. I have no idea what those bolded stats mean.

One thing that was ironically true in 2023 is we were really bloody good at goalkicking, just that we kneecapped ourselves by shot selection.

If the goalkicking was good, doesn't that mean the 'shot selection' was good, also?
By "shot selection" do you mean where we were kicking for goal from
or
which kind of kick to use? (drop punt, side-on, torp ...)

 

[TBM]

great to see Woz getting recognition

Imagine the plaudits he'd be getting if he was at a VIC club. Deadset gun.

 

[Golumless]

Interesting comments, thanks.
I'll be honest; I hadn't noticed (2023-24). My impression was that high bombs out of centre or from either wing were almost our default method (Laird the worst offender, to a lesser extent also Mrouch and Smith).
In fact, in 2022-23 I thought the deep, high bombs were a deliberate tactic to minimise our losses ie they were preferable to a mid-field turnover because the ball spent more time in the air and took longer to transition (by the oppo) to their F50 <== I'm not being facetious here.
I have no stats to prove it, though; just an impression.

2022 had that kind of ball movement, though being real it's likely a lack of quality that forced us into it. We ended up morphing into a slingshot/counter attack team in 2023.

So, I did make a mistake with this comment. We weren't as high on the 2024 entry stats as I thought. I do have a vague memory that early in the season we were doing very well in this regard, but forgot that we lost it as the squad quality lowered, once we entered our "throw shit on wall and see what sticks" phase. Unfortunately, it's not something I can check.

In 2023 we clean swept the forward line stats, seeing we recorded 1st in marks on lead, shots per inside 50, set shots per inside 50 and goals per inside 50. 2025 hasn't quite got to those levels of ruthless efficiency, 9th for marks on lead, 3rd for shots per inside 50, 5th for set shots per inside 50 and 2nd for goals per inside 50. Some of that is we're a lot more accurate at goal, and Tex not being in world beating form (+ TT hasn't been that good), however it's about the same style wise.

But this year, I noticed very early on that there was much more emphasis on getting into space, showing composure and pausing to look for a best option. I put that down to the new chums (ANB and Peatling) and a natural improvement by others

That has definitely improved in the last 5-6 weeks, although kicking-in after a point is still an issue but we have better marking options like Thilthorpe when he plays up the ground and Curtin.

A side-issue, Worrell's and Keane's marking have improved too.

Yeah, it's pretty much natural improvement that's driven this, alongside excellent work in the trade period. We've gone back to mostly what our 2023 profile was ball movement wise, except with a deeper best 22 instead of as top-heavy that '23 was.

The biggest deviation from '23 has been defensive, where we get isolated less often in our D50. It seems to have made us better. Beyond that, it's an intercept heavy, transition restricting and counter-punching kind of team, which is what we were at our best in '23.

Sorry. I have no idea what those bolded stats mean.

xScore is the expected score from the shots you are taking based on the AFL averages from the position. In the case of those numbers, I took the score per shot number, which I should have specified. So mainly, it's a shot selection metric, as it takes into account where the shot is from and type of shot (i.e. set shot or in general play); there is a rating one which indicates how well you are doing compared that as well. I assume there is other metrics out there, but those are the freely available ones. That said, I do think this gives a solid explanation for those cold streaks Adelaide's goalkicking had in '23, seeing high volume of bad shots will punish periods where you're not 100% on.

So, for instance, this is Tex's 2021-2025 map to get a feel for how the stat works.

If the goalkicking was good, doesn't that mean the 'shot selection' was good, also?
By "shot selection" do you mean where we were kicking for goal from
or
which kind of kick to use? (drop punt, side-on, torp ...)

Not necessarily. You can be a skillful goal kicking side and take a high-percentage of low % shots, but make more than expected (think Sydney last year and their run of hot form). Vice versa, you can make up poorer techniques by choosing a high volume of good shots to minimise the technical issues (Geelong/Gold Coast are good examples of this currently, lots of good shots and not really overperforming it). Ideally, you want both and it is somewhere where Adelaide has sat in the past two years.

 

[Gtowncrow]

Our play was the best and hope we can continue to play that way. Our midfield broke even with Sydney but yet we smashed them in other ways. Yes Sydney are shit but we know we can win when our midfield isn’t dominating which is great. We have such good forwards that work and block for each other that it makes the game look easy at times.
Win this week against Brisbane and we play finals, hope to get at least one home final

Beating Brisbane this week gets us a look at 2 home finals. Genuine 8 point game.

 

[davos44]

AlllllRighty! <<rubs hands together, folds sleeves up>>
Appreciated .

View attachment 2332600



12 games and 8-4 this year (with big wins over lower-ranked teams) have not convinced me of that, but I'm open to persuasion which I'm hoping will come over the next 11 games.
Let's review after the next 2 games and again at year's end? (weren't Carlton flying mid-2022 and still miss the 8? Shit happens)
What I do admire --- yes, admire --- is the man's patience.
Those first 2 years must have been tortuous.
He inherited a mess of players and their mixed, conflicting attitudes; also Assistants not of his choosing.

Yeah, I know he's a Board member , but my guess is he's been having several subtle 'conversations'.
He's not the I-am-going-to-only-attend-Board-meetings type.

I agree, especially wrt Forward Craft/ movement and delivery to them.
When the Crows create a turnover say at HB, two things happen:
--- they run and spread to create options
--- most players with the ball lower their eyes and really look for a good option.
As a side-issue, short-passing has improved a lot. Keane's a prime example. He now hits targets that he was missing a year ago. His improvement has been a real asset.

By Nicks? When, please? Got any links?
My impression has been the Club has done all it can to justify Nicks' 2-year extension, to prop Nicks up.
I've resented the AFC being a training ground for rookie Coaches.

Now, now, calm down . "Inspiring", he ain't --- watch any one of his pressers for starters.
Being self-aware of one's own shortcomings is bloody hard to do, but I see continued signs of Nicks' stubbornness. Even so, changes have been made.
The man has been listening.

What? CEO of West Coast? Justin Langer?

I've said often that I give him a Mulligan for 2020-21.
Those players would have played 40-60 games together, regardless of who was Coach.
Or are you saying Nicks kept them together?

Yep, see above.
I'm not whingeing about 2020-21, however the 2023 ==> 2024 pre-Season produced a nightmare 2024 start and set us back 6 months. That's on Nicks.
After 10th in 2023, we should have been no worse than 10/11/12th in 2024.

Mate, that was ONE win from 17th. poz, and 4 out of the Top-8.

I'm tempted to say Geelong and Melbourne complacency/hubris, but tbh I don't remember (well, only that it surprised everybody).
Cherry-picking the odd good win which lowly teams pull off now and then doesn't make Nicks a genius.

Yep, but c'mon, that's his job. That's why he's paid the big bucks.
Whoever was Coach would have had that task
BUT, I'll repeat,
I am appreciative of his patience.

Loved that; nice touch, made me snort coffee.

I can't find that report or article I read about Nicks doing too much, might have been a presser. Anyway scratch that, everyone agrees Nicks needed help in the coaches box and the club supported him with that by getting Davis down.

The CEO of West Coast is Don Pyke, he was also a mentor to Justin Langer. I would say he also made Sydney lost that 2022 GF and caused them to lose 2024 badly but that's my bias against him. Bloke destroyed this club.

I am sure Balme has had some good conversations and ideas about the direction, messaging and structure of the football department. Certainly not wizard levels of change IMO.

My point about the list was that its easier to coach players with 40-80 games under their belt vs 1-10. Our most talented guys are now starting to get to that point ie Rachele, Soligo, Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Hinge, MM, Keane, Worrell off the top of my head. The consistency and gameplan start to stick a bit.

2024 was a disaster, the start was horrible but you can see semblances of the defensive game plan there but the attack is much much better.

I think if we beat Geelong or Gold Coast we would have more credibility, I get that. A win against Brisbane is almost essential to sort of "mint" us as a genuinely strong team instead of a Port style flat track bullies.

I wasn't cherry picking, I was genuinely confused about how this list beat the premier and prelim finalist (short preseason from an October GF and just a mental lapse from a top ranked side I would say)

What this about? Oh yeah, Sydney win. 90 points, we broke them. Our first genuine destruction of a team apart from West Coast since forever.

 

[Betts are off]

Rewatched the game last night. Should take a second the highlight Mitch Hinge's mark. That was awesome, and I almost completely forgot about it.

 

[CrowBloke]

The CEO of West Coast is Don Pyke, he was also a mentor to Justin Langer. I would say he also made Sydney lost that 2022 GF and caused them to lose 2024 badly but that's my bias against him. Bloke destroyed this club.

Don't be so subtle; say what you mean .
If you have the time to elaborate, please send me a Conversation PM?
I liked Pyke, well, until that Camp which was a serious debacle.
In a presser before the 2017 GF, he spoke very carefully about
--- the (excellent) PF win BUT how it guaranteed nothing, except qualifying the Crows for a shot at the Flag
and
--- how the players had to address that challenge and needed to earn the GF win,
probably to re-align player intent and quell any talk of "deserving" (**below) the 2017 Flag (on the back of the Phil Walsh tragedy) and to focus the players on the game ahead and not the 70+ point drubbing they'd given Richmond early in the season at AO.

My point about the list was that its easier to coach players with 40-80 games under their belt vs 1-10. Our most talented guys are now starting to get to that point ie Rachele, Soligo, Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Hinge, MM, Keane, Worrell off the top of my head. The consistency and gameplan start to stick a bit.

Yes, I agree.

I think if we beat Geelong or Gold Coast we would have more credibility, I get that. A win against Brisbane is almost essential to sort of "mint" us as a genuinely strong team instead of a Port style flat track bullies.

... and the Hawks in Tassie, and the Suns (R19), and Collingwood at AO (R23) <== after which game we'll know all we need to know about the 2025 Crows.

(** I dislike all the hand-wringing and "we-wuz-robbed" rage about
--- the Suns loss (there was NO guarantee Rankine would have goaled had the free been paid and there was time enough left for the Suns to goal and win anyway), and
--- the Sydney loss in 2023 even further back (likewise, had the Keays goal been called, there was still time for Sydney to goal from the ensuing centre bounce).

Teams don't "deserve" wins unless they are won on the day; those 2 losses were on the back of mistakes and/or missed opportunities during the game. If either incident had happened in the first 1/4, they would have passed without much fanfare).

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I dont think pure Bastard gets it done.
I think thats exactly what Buckley tried to be first time around
Blight, Sheedy, Malthouse, Clarkson,Thompson and so on, could all be hard arses sure, but they all had people wisdom,charisma and degrees of eccentricity enough to get maximum buy in/self belief from their players,on top of what they bought as far as footy smarts.
Not sure Buckley holds those add-ons as natural parts of his makeup.

I agree with all of that. I don't rate Buckley at all. I see this as another version of "we need to get Roo to fix our club". People buying into a brand name and rating a guy based on his playing years. I reckon it will backfire on us if it happens.

 

[Slippery Pete]

I dont think pure Bastard gets it done.
I think thats exactly what Buckley tried to be first time around
Blight, Sheedy, Malthouse, Clarkson,Thompson and so on, could all be hard arses sure, but they all had people wisdom,charisma and degrees of eccentricity enough to get maximum buy in/self belief from their players,on top of what they bought as far as footy smarts.
Not sure Buckley holds those add-ons as natural parts of his makeup.

Bit of a stretch calling Clarkson charismatic but yeah I see your point.

 

[chazwazza]

Rewatched the game last night. Should take a second the highlight Mitch Hinge's mark. That was awesome, and I almost completely forgot about it.

There’s also a small bit of play where Pedlar comes racing through a pack, misses the ball (no fault of his own) then absolutely smashes the Sydney player who now has the ball. Absolutely manic intent for the contest.

 

[Betts are off]

There’s also a small bit of play where Pedlar comes racing through a pack, misses the ball (no fault of his own) then absolutely smashes the Sydney player who now has the ball. Absolutely manic intent for the contest.

Pedlar is a player worth persevering with because that burst of his is a serious weapon. I feel like he just missed a few really exciting plays by an unkind bounce, or a untimely touch by another player. But he was only centimeters off having some highlights of his own.

 

[Coopers]

Pedlar is a player worth persevering with because that burst of his is a serious weapon. I feel like he just missed a few really exciting plays by an unkind bounce, or a untimely touch by another player. But he was only centimeters off having some highlights of his own.

Did he get a short burst in the middle?

I seem to remember thinking "he's not getting much of it" and then he got a few touches in a row.

 

[Betts are off]

Did he get a short burst in the middle?

I seem to remember thinking "he's not getting much of it" and then he got a few touches in a row.

I'm pretty sure he just got up the ground in the 3rd quarter for a bit. But I liked it when he did that.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Thanks and ditto.

Here is some fodder for you


The players have improved because of Nicks and the entire coaching staff.

Balme is on the board, he isn't that magical to turn around the club in 5 months.

Murray has been the perfect addition because Nicks was doing too much and this was acknowledged. Seeing your own faults is part of being a great leader.

Justin Reid deserves some real praise for his recruiting (Geelong style), he didn't want Galucci but the CEO of West Coast pulled rank, chose Jordan then mentored Justin Langer out of a job.

I'm keen to forgive Nicks for the terrible years because the core side of Dawson, Hinge, Keays, Worrell, Keane, Fogarty, Rachele, Soligo, ROB, Thilthorpe etc. have all played 40-60 extra games together.

Coaching McPherson, Rowe, McHenry, Hamill, Sholl, Schoenberg, Jones and Jake Kelly with Keays, Laird, McKay and Sloane as your primary mids is hard yards. Add a baby RT, baby Sam Berry and a last legs Luke Brown to that list and 7 wins doesn't look too awful. How TF did we beat Geelong and Melbourne in 2021?

He then had to turn over that 2020/2021 team from 2022 onwards.

#promotenicks

This is closer to the truth than not

2024 was a rough year but let’s hope it was a bit Geelong before they came good or Richmond of 2016

Not saying we go and win 3 of next 6

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I can't find that report or article I read about Nicks doing too much, might have been a presser. Anyway scratch that, everyone agrees Nicks needed help in the coaches box and the club supported him with that by getting Davis down.

The CEO of West Coast is Don Pyke, he was also a mentor to Justin Langer. I would say he also made Sydney lost that 2022 GF and caused them to lose 2024 badly but that's my bias against him. Bloke destroyed this club.

I am sure Balme has had some good conversations and ideas about the direction, messaging and structure of the football department. Certainly not wizard levels of change IMO.

My point about the list was that its easier to coach players with 40-80 games under their belt vs 1-10. Our most talented guys are now starting to get to that point ie Rachele, Soligo, Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Hinge, MM, Keane, Worrell off the top of my head. The consistency and gameplan start to stick a bit.

2024 was a disaster, the start was horrible but you can see semblances of the defensive game plan there but the attack is much much better.

I think if we beat Geelong or Gold Coast we would have more credibility, I get that. A win against Brisbane is almost essential to sort of "mint" us as a genuinely strong team instead of a Port style flat track bullies.

I wasn't cherry picking, I was genuinely confused about how this list beat the premier and prelim finalist (short preseason from an October GF and just a mental lapse from a top ranked side I would say)

What this about? Oh yeah, Sydney win. 90 points, we broke them. Our first genuine destruction of a team apart from West Coast since forever.

Balme would be observing more than anything else in early days

Maybe next year we see some things that have his fingerprints on them

 

[Gtowncrow]

I agree with all of that. I don't rate Buckley at all. I see this as another version of "we need to get Roo to fix our club". People buying into a brand name and rating a guy based on his playing years. I reckon it will backfire on us if it happens.

Not sure Thompson belongs in this discussion. Red flags galore.

 

[dogs105]

Sorry Nicksy

Wow.


Sack Nicks

 

[Hobbes]

Is it just me or does Dean Cox remind anyone else of Rodney Rude

Dagmer Cleftjaw.

 

[Pugsley]

Laird, I don't - we look better without him, his ball usage is just not good enough for the position he is in.

Tex - teetering on the edge for me; but the structural factor favours him at this point. As I said, come finals games, high pressure, on the big expanses of the CG, he might be a liability.

The one arm marking attempts in the Showdown did it for me with Tex. I love the bloke, has been a great servant but Thilthy has shown he is more than capable while Walker has declined more rapidly than I expected but at his age he would have to have known it was going to be a faster drop in form.

It's time to call it a day Tex, supporters can see it and surely he knows it but the AFC doesn't have the backbone to call it and say time for a farewell game mate, thanks for your service and loyalty but we are in good hands for the future and the younger brigade can take it from here.

 

[davos44]

This is closer to the truth than not

2024 was a rough year but let’s hope it was a bit Geelong before they came good or Richmond of 2016

Not saying we go and win 3 of next 6

2024 was awful but is hopefully the making of this club! 1 / 6 would be nice