Who will be better in 2025 - Geelong or Hawthorn?

[Dewyyyyy]

If that’s the case I’d probably pick him on extended form over Karl Amon, Battle is about par as he was very good for St Kilda last year (not that Amon wasn’t decent last year but Guthrie was almost our best player last year - runner up in our BF) and has been steadily rising for a couple of years now. All three are very good footballers

Amon was very good last year and superb this year, an odd one to pick out. He’s picked in a lot of sides in the league due to his elite run and carry and his foot skills.

Guthrie is very close but if he’s going into the team it’s for Humphries.

The whole team are a set of very good players.

 

[Mr Meow]

Guthrie is again the same role Sicily and Stewart play, although he probably can defend more, however Battle would play that role or Humphries. He’d be next in with Impey.

The side has a lot who can match up on both, I value versatility

Mannagh is more of a HF, off 25 form he’s in the team and he’s close generally speaking, I’d have Moore and Miers ahead.

Gunston over those two off form but again not how I aimed to pick mine, more so 2024 and a little of 2025, plus reputation of some players aswell, that will automatically be picked or should be if one of Scott or Mitchell had two teams to choose from.

Well you asked for an opinion. I said why I'd have Zuthrie and Mannagh in on 2024-2025 form. 12 Cats, 11 Hawks for me. I believe I met your request so now we move on!

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Well you asked for an opinion. I said why I'd have Zuthrie and Mannagh in on 2024-2025 form. 12 Cats, 11 Hawks for me. I believe I met your request so now we move on!

Of course, think both and others have cases. It’s personal preference considering structures and roles.

Same can be said for Impey for example.

Appreciate the discussion

 

[Mr Meow]

Not that it does anything at all for anyone.

Bored so decided to make a combined 23, since that’s the thing for these types of threads.

Two teams
Inc inj players
Not inc inj players

(Best 23 no injuries)
B: Stewart, Barrass, Battle
HB: Sicily, De Koning, Amon
C: D’Ambrosio, Day, Smith
HF: Moore, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Lewis, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
INT: Dempsey, Dangerfield, Humphries, Scrimshaw, Weddle

Removing injured players:
Lewis & Day.

B: Stewart, Barrass, Battle
HB: Sicily, De Koning, Amon
C: D’Ambrosio, Smith, Dempsey
HF: Moore, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Dear, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
INT: Dangerfield, Humphries, Mackenzie Scrimshaw, Weddle

GEE: 10
HAW: 13

Be happy to hear others thoughts, I’ve likely missed someone.

Should we have a go at this based on 2025 form only (minimum 5 games played this season)?

FB: Guthrie, Barrass, Battle
HB: Humphries, Henry, Amon
C: Dempsey, Smith, Blicavs
HF: Mannagh, Cameron, Miers
FF: Dangerfield, Gunston, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
IC: Worpel, Atkins, Weddle, Close, Watson

Watson a great impact sub in a merged team I think, as he rarely sustains output across 4 quarters.

Geelong: 14
Hawthorn: 9

Moore and Massimo, along with a few others, need to find some form to push back in.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Should we have a go at this based on 2025 form only (minimum 5 games played this season)?

FB: Guthrie, Barrass, Battle
HB: Humphries, Henry, Amon
C: Dempsey, Smith, Blicavs
HF: Mannagh, Cameron, Miers
FF: Dangerfield, Gunston, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
IC: Worpel, Atkins, Weddle, Close, Watson

Watson a great impact sub in a merged team I think, as he rarely sustains output across 4 quarters.

Geelong: 14
Hawthorn: 9

Moore and Massimo, along with a few others, need to find some form to push back in.

Ward definitely has to be in this team tho, has been the number one rated kick in the comp this year according to CD and one of the most improved.

Watson hasn’t been the most consistent but not entirely his fault, playing deep when you’re losing isn’t the easiest thing to do.

He’s still kicked 18 goals which is more than Stengle, Miers and Mannagh. Whilst having similar disposal numbers to Stengle.

Couple notes I’d have would be:
Weddle for Henry, D’Ambrosio for Blicavs

These two would come down to me simply not rating Henry or Blicavs at all, and despite not being at his best he’s still good enough D’Ambrosio, Weddle has had a strong year, hard being in so many different positions but strong defensively when down there. And provides more versatility, and attacking prowess. Henry has also played almost half the games of others.

Miers has been great in general play but I was surprised to see he hasn’t kicked many if really any goals.

Moore, Ginnivan and Stengle was an interesting debate

Goals:

Ginni - 13
Moore - 11
Stengle - 13

Disposal counts:

11 disposals, 0.9 GA, 5.6 SI - Stengle
17 disposals, 0.7 GA, 5.7 SI - Ginni
16.4 disposals, 0.3 GA, 5.2 SI - Moore

I swapped out Worpel for Atkins on my side as I could only have one, Atkins provides more as a defensive midfielder although having slightly less impact disposal wise.

B: Guthrie, Barrass, Battle
HB: Humphries, Weddle, Amon
C: Dempsey, Smith, D’Ambrosio
HF: Gunston, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Chol, Dangerfield
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
INT: Mannagh, Ward, Atkins, Impey, Ginnivan (sub)

There’s a lot of players I’d generally pick who aren’t in the greatest form or screaming to be picked. (Or injured).

Stewart, Sicily, Stengle, Day, Moore.

Others who are close like SDK, Worpel, Hardwick (I’d pick if he played purely DEF), MacDonald.

Geelong: 10
Hawthorn: 12 (13 Inc sub)

I would say there’s quite a few Hawthorn players playing well individually, as a group that’s where they’re probably falling a bit. Geelong working better as a unit currently, whilst relying less on individuals and more as a cohesive squad. Even on the ladder now, but Geelong will likely beat West Coast to climb to 8-4 and push top 4. Hawthorn around 6-8 till their next game.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

So the 37% will be correct. Easily too.

 

[RCAB]

So the 37% will be correct. Easily too.

Already celebrating?

 

[matey]

Winter solstice still a few days away!

 

[DanA]

Already celebrating?

It seems a bit weird to me but the bookies have Geelong paying 1.04 to finish top 4 while Hawthorn are paying 4.25.

I guess we have a game in hand, percentage, and a better draw? I personally aren’t thinking we have anything locked up just yet.

And Dewwy not selecting Blicavs in a combined Hawks/cats team…crazy. Every second week he’s fixing a headache for us or creating one for the opposition..

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It seems a bit weird to me but the bookies have Geelong paying 1.04 to finish top 4 while Hawthorn are paying 4.25.

I guess we have a game in hand, percentage, and a better draw? I personally aren’t thinking we have anything locked up just yet.

And Dewwy not selecting Blicavs in a combined Hawks/cats team…crazy. Every second week he’s fixing a headache for us or creating one for the opposition..

That’s just purely me. I can see the appeal but I don’t rate him at all. He’s a solid player who isn’t exceptional at anything in particular. But I’m probably wrong there.

 

[Mr Meow]

That’s just purely me. I can see the appeal but I don’t rate him at all. He’s a solid player who isn’t exceptional at anything in particular. But I’m probably wrong there.

Blicavs doesn't dominate the stats sheet but he does so many things that save us in defensive transition. Gives a great contest all over the ground. His running power is insane. He's still a very good KPD too. You get a plug and play for KPD, wingman, big bodied midfielder or mobile ruck. Sometimes all within the same game.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

It seems a bit weird to me but the bookies have Geelong paying 1.04 to finish top 4 while Hawthorn are paying 4.25.

I guess we have a game in hand, percentage, and a better draw? I personally aren’t thinking we have anything locked up just yet.

And Dewwy not selecting Blicavs in a combined Hawks/cats team…crazy. Every second week he’s fixing a headache for us or creating one for the opposition..

Fixturing wise.

Geelong have to come:

Flag contention or top 4 chances:
Brisbane
Top 8 fancy:
GWS
Middle rung teams:
Saints, Port, Essendon, Sydney
Poor teams:
Richmond x2 North

Hawthorn have to come:

Flag contention or top 4 chances: Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane
Top 8 fancy:
Fremantle
Middle rung teams:
Saints, Port, Carlton, Dees
Poor teams: North

Hawthorn sit at 9-5 (36 pts) 111.6%
Geelong sit at 10-4 (40 pts) 133.8%

Geelong best case scenario can realistically beat all of those teams, as can Hawthorn. At both teams best they’re top 4 fancies.

Worst case - Geelong (15-8) - Hawthorn (15-8)
Best case - Geelong (19-4) - Hawthorn (18-5)
Realistically - Geelong (17-6) - Hawthorn (17-6)

Think both teams will probably drop a game or two against either a middle rung side or a top team. Probably land about the same position. Finals an interesting prospect.

My top 8 is probably
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. Brisbane
5. Adelaide
6. Bulldogs
7. GWS
8. Fremantle

Brisbane have a hard draw aswell with Geelong, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Fremantle and Hawthorn to come.

 

[Mr Meow]

Fixturing wise.

Geelong have to come:

Flag contention or top 4 chances:
Brisbane
Top 8 fancy:
GWS
Middle rung teams:
Saints, Port, Essendon, Sydney
Poor teams:
Richmond x2 North

Hawthorn have to come:

Flag contention or top 4 chances: Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane
Top 8 fancy:
Fremantle
Middle rung teams:
Saints, Port, Carlton, Dees
Poor teams: North

Hawthorn sit at 9-5 (36 pts) 111.6%
Geelong sit at 10-4 (40 pts) 133.8%

Geelong best case scenario can realistically beat all of those teams, as can Hawthorn. At both teams best they’re top 4 fancies.

Worst case - Geelong (15-8) - Hawthorn (15-8)
Best case - Geelong (19-4) - Hawthorn (18-5)
Realistically - Geelong (17-6) - Hawthorn (17-6)

Think both teams will probably drop a game or two against either a middle rung side or a top team. Probably land about the same position. Finals an interesting prospect.

My top 8 is probably
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. Brisbane
5. Adelaide
6. Bulldogs
7. GWS
8. Fremantle

Brisbane have a hard draw aswell with Geelong, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Fremantle and Hawthorn to come.

For Hawthorn 15-8 looks more realistic than 17-6 to me. Maybe 16-7. They should beat the middle rung or lower. Adelaide and Fremantle away will be tough, but they might (should?) win one. Collingwood and Brisbane I don't see it - possible to win one, but is it likely?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Blicavs doesn't dominate the stats sheet but he does so many things that save us in defensive transition. Gives a great contest all over the ground. His running power is insane. He's still a very good KPD too. You get a plug and play for KPD, wingman, big bodied midfielder or mobile ruck. Sometimes all within the same game.

Again I think he does a role for Geelong. But I’m not emphatic about him as a player, I do know how good he is at what he does, which is being a pretty decent defender, with a strong running power and an ability to play in multiple positions. I just think (as stupid as the exercise of combining teams is) that you wouldn’t need someone like him, and if you did I’d probably pick Weddle. Younger and similar as a player except quicker & a stronger offensive game.

Blicavs averages:
13.7 disposals 7.8 contested possessions @ 76% DE
4.5 one percenters 3.2 intercepts 3.5 spoils
10.8 hitouts (28.6 ruck contests PG) 37% Win P
3.9 marks (0.7 contested)
0.5 goals 4.8 score involvements

Weddle averages:
16.8 disposals 6.1 contested possessions @ 77% DE
3 one percenters 5.9 intercepts 2.6 spoils
2.4 hitouts (6.5 ruck contests PG) 37% Win P
5.1 marks (1.1 contested)
0.6 goals 4 score involvements

Similar roles except Blicavs does more rucking since Stanley and other Geelong rucks aren’t great. Meek does a lot of ruck work for Hawthorn whilst Chol does CBA and Weddle does around the ground.

Both can play defense and forward aswell as up around the ball. Both great runners.

Again think the tipping of the scale is purely offensive output, age, bit of extra pace whilst being able to play multiple positions which they both do. The experience factor could be one aswell for Blicavs, aswell as his ruck work, but for a combined side, it’d be more useless. As he’d be best used as a KPD/KPF floater.

 

[Mr Meow]

Again I think he does a role for Geelong. But I’m not emphatic about him as a player, I do know how good he is at what he does, which is being a pretty decent defender, with a strong running power and an ability to play in multiple positions. I just think (as stupid as the exercise of combining teams is) that you wouldn’t need someone like him, and if you did I’d probably pick Weddle. Younger and similar as a player except quicker & a stronger offensive game.

Blicavs averages:
13.7 disposals 7.8 contested possessions @ 76% DE
4.5 one percenters 3.2 intercepts 3.5 spoils
10.8 hitouts (28.6 ruck contests PG) 37% Win P
3.9 marks (0.7 contested)
0.5 goals 4.8 score involvements

Weddle averages:
16.8 disposals 6.1 contested possessions @ 77% DE
3 one percenters 5.9 intercepts 2.6 spoils
2.4 hitouts (6.5 ruck contests PG) 37% Win P
5.1 marks (1.1 contested)
0.6 goals 4 score involvements

Similar roles except Blicavs does more rucking since Stanley and other Geelong rucks aren’t great. Meek does a lot of ruck work for Hawthorn whilst Chol does CBA and Weddle does around the ground.

Both can play defense and forward aswell as up around the ball. Both great runners.

Again think the tipping of the scale is purely offensive output, age, bit of extra pace whilst being able to play multiple positions which they both do. The experience factor could be one aswell for Blicavs, aswell as his ruck work, but for a combined side, it’d be more useless. As he’d be best used as a KPD/KPF floater.

Weddle and Blicavs are completely different sorts of players. They don't have close to the same role other than being able to play multiple (different) positions in multiple (different) ways.

It's a bit like comparing Blicavs with Dempsey. You take both, because one's attributes don't replace the other.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

For Hawthorn 15-8 looks more realistic than 17-6 to me. Maybe 16-7. They should beat the middle rung or lower. Adelaide and Fremantle away will be tough, but they might (should?) win one. Collingwood and Brisbane I don't see it - possible to win one, but is it likely?

I think realistically. Hawthorn 2-0 last two weeks against top 8 sides, beat the middle rung and lower for 14 wins.

Adelaide at AO (Is tough) but a win this year, smashing there last year and another win at the G. I’d say Hawthorn go in as favourites or even.

Collingwood smashed them earlier, as past suggests Hawthorn are strong against them. It’s a game that goes 50-50 or slightly Collingwoods way and will depend on form.

Same for Brisbane game.

Thing with these three for example is inclusions for hawthorn by the time of these games.

Lewis back before this point, Day back Round 20. The week prior to the first of the three. Worpel back post bye with Sicily, and Scrimshaw likely three weeks from now.

Fremantle game will be an even game but this was purely because I don’t think they’re that good. Solid team, better at home. North almost beat them just this week. Whilst dominating them in Inside 50s, clearances, tackles and winning contested footy.

Realistically 17-6 or 16-7 is about right.

 

[Mr Meow]

PS Dewyyyyy your joint (minus injuries) team for May had 4 players who aren't even best 23 for Hawthorn currently: Sicily, Scrimshaw, Dear and Mackenzie. Those 4 come straight out.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Weddle and Blicavs are completely different sorts of players. They don't have close to the same role other than being able to play multiple (different) positions in multiple (different) ways.

It's a bit like comparing Blicavs with Dempsey. You take both, because one's attributes don't replace the other.

Eh. Blicavs main difference is his rucking is further advanced but if you’ve got a hypothetical combined team you’re not selecting him because of that. Whilst Weddle is similar or ahead in other areas, both strong defenders and can go forward but Weddle a better intercept, speed / running and offensive game.

I can’t recall the team I selected anyway, and probably changes in a month anyway as form fluctuates, players return from injury and so on.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

PS Dewyyyyy your joint (minus injuries) team for May had 4 players who aren't even best 23 for Hawthorn currently: Sicily, Scrimshaw, Dear and Mackenzie. Those 4 come straight out.

Sicily and Scrimshaw are definitely best 23. But I agree, out dated. Haven’t had a look at it tbh.

 

[Mr Meow]

I think realistically. Hawthorn 2-0 last two weeks against top 8 sides, beat the middle rung and lower for 14 wins.

Adelaide at AO (Is tough) but a win this year, smashing there last year and another win at the G. I’d say Hawthorn go in as favourites or even.

Collingwood smashed them earlier, as past suggests Hawthorn are strong against them. It’s a game that goes 50-50 or slightly Collingwoods way and will depend on form.

Same for Brisbane game.

Thing with these three for example is inclusions for hawthorn by the time of these games.

Lewis back before this point, Day back Round 20. The week prior to the first of the three. Worpel back post bye with Sicily, and Scrimshaw likely three weeks from now.

Fremantle game will be an even game but this was purely because I don’t think they’re that good. Solid team, better at home. North almost beat them just this week. Whilst dominating them in Inside 50s, clearances, tackles and winning contested footy.

Realistically 17-6 or 16-7 is about right.

Adelaide and Freo games away from home flip of the coin. So you'd take 1 on average if you ran 1000 simulations.

Brisbane and Collingwood, the Hawks will be underdogs. You're probably getting 0.5-1 on average, which is why 15-16 wins makes sense. Hawthorn could outperform expectations though and get 17. 15-16 is just more likely.

 

[Mr Meow]

Sicily and Scrimshaw are definitely best 23. But I agree, out dated. Haven’t had a look at it tbh.

Hawthorn have been better without them. From a selfish perspective I hope Mitchell panics and shoves both of them back in, but there is just no way you can include them, Mackenzie or Dear in a joint best 23 based on 2025 performances or recent selection. You only need one of Stewart and Sicily - Stewart has been much better since returning and our points against has gone right down.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Adelaide and Freo games away from home flip of the coin. So you'd take 1 on average if you ran 1000 simulations.

Brisbane and Collingwood, the Hawks will be underdogs. You're probably getting 0.5-1 on average, which is why 15-16 wins makes sense. Hawthorn could outperform expectations though and get 17. 15-16 is just more likely.

I’m not considering Freo a flip of the coin. Hawthorn go in favourites, as I said almost lost to North and should have.

Adelaide is a flip of the coin but past performance and winning again probably leans to Hawthorn.

Same for the Brisbane and Collingwood games, flip of the coin but probably leans to Collingwood and Brisbane due to the wins already and in Brisbanes case being at the Gabba.

I’d say 16-17 is likely and I think they could get to 18.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn have been better without them. From a selfish perspective I hope Mitchell panics and shoves both of them back in, but there is just no way you can include them, Mackenzie or Dear in a joint best 23 based on 2025 performances or recent selection. You only need one of Stewart and Sicily - Stewart has been much better since returning and our points against has gone right down.

It’s hard to say. Sicily was injured for a patch, was still valuable and a big part of early wins. Scrimshaw aswell but hasn’t had continuity. It’s more so the structure of the team, those two are good players especially Sicily whom is elite.

Dear isn’t there yet and I’d probably replace that with Gunston, who’s been in great form and likely holds his spot from Dear unless otherwise indicated by Dears performances and return. Mackenzie definitely fallen out of favour and no longer, especially considering he’s gonna be uphill getting back into the Hawthorn side for the time being.

I’d say Stewart still isn’t if you’re counting form, been solid but quite a few better from both teams. Will know more once he plays more and Sicily returns also.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m not considering Freo a flip of the coin. Hawthorn go in favourites, as I said almost lost to North and should have.

Adelaide is a flip of the coin but past performance and winning again probably leans to Hawthorn.

Same for the Brisbane and Collingwood games, flip of the coin but probably leans to Collingwood and Brisbane due to the wins already and in Brisbanes case being at the Gabba.

I’d say 16-17 is likely and I think they could get to 18.

Unbiased look then:

Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool.

predictor.squiggle.com.au

I ran it 5 different times: 14, 15, 15, 14, 14 wins.

That's actually less optimistic than my own prediction.

It's fine to have an outlier opinion. But if Hawthorn meet it, it has been by outperforming expectations, that's all.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Not that it does anything at all for anyone.

Bored so decided to make a combined 23, since that’s the thing for these types of threads.

Two teams
Inc inj players
Not inc inj players

(Best 23 no injuries)
B: Stewart, Barrass, Battle
HB: Sicily, De Koning, Amon
C: D’Ambrosio, Day, Smith
HF: Moore, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Lewis, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
INT: Dempsey, Dangerfield, Humphries, Scrimshaw, Weddle

Removing injured players:
Lewis & Day.

B: Stewart, Barrass, Battle
HB: Sicily, De Koning, Amon
C: D’Ambrosio, Smith, Dempsey
HF: Moore, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Dear, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
INT: Dangerfield, Humphries, Mackenzie Scrimshaw, Weddle

GEE: 10
HAW: 13

Be happy to hear others thoughts, I’ve likely missed someone.

No injuries team would be Scrimshaw for Impey, De Koning for Ward and D’Ambrosio for Mannagh

B: Stewart, Barrass, Battle
HB: Sicily, Weddle, Amon
C: Dempsey, Day, Holmes
HF: Moore, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Lewis, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Smith
INT: Dangerfield, Ward, Mannagh, Impey, Humphries

GEEL 10
HAW 13

For the 2025 team.

Taken into consideration the no injuries team, aswell as some past performance and consistency.

Taken into consideration form of 2025.

Taken out players who have had an interrupted 2025.

Stewart, Sicily, Mackenzie, Scrimshaw, Dear, DeKoning
OUT
Impey, Guthrie, Ward, Mannagh, Gunston, Chol
IN

B: Guthrie, Barrass, Battle
HB: Impey, Weddle, Amon
C: D’Ambrosio, Smith, Dempsey
HF: Moore, Cameron, Miers
F: Watson, Chol, Stengle
FOL: Meek, Newcombe, Holmes
INT: Gunston, Ward, Dangerfield, Humphries, Mannagh

GEEL 10
HAW 13

Something like that.