Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

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That's the impression I got from some quick research when his name first popped up. A very average player with a sub-par attitude I think someone said.

He isn't terrible, very hard to break into our forward line and he does good things then follows up with not good, so not really consistent, good size, athletic, talented, just probably will become a wasted talent.
 
You might be right but I also read somewhere nobody in this year's top ten woukd be in next year's top ten. Again not saying its true but I did read this somewhere. Remember the highly touted Raynar has SFS tank and isn't even a true mid yet.

Yep, heard that too - just not sure how much is hyberbole, or even people just projecting a best-case improvement plan for next year's crop. Still begs the question though, just because this year's top 10 wouldn't beat out next year's, does that mean the kid at 10 this year (Higgins, Stephenson, Brayshaw, Constable?) is going to be worse than the kid at 24 in 2018. It's possible of course, but if you're crunching the numbers it'd be hard to say definitively.

The way I see it, if there's a player who we expect to be available at pick 10 this year that we rate highly on ability, attitude and needs - keep Pick 10 and draft the kid. If we don't like what we see, then maybe use Pick 10 to grab the GWS players we like and try to strengthen next year's draft position at the same time. Put names next to the numbers before making a judgement.
 

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He isn't terrible, very hard to break into our forward line and he does good things then follows up with not good, so not really consistent, good size, athletic, talented, just probably will become a wasted talent.
It was the attitude thing that got me. I didn't believe the crap about him being an average talent.
 
Ahh , the old salary dump ...
Don't think Griffen is very fond of Melbourne town and don't know who else might fit the bill ?

It's not my idea but one that has been floated.

This may well be the last year we have a 'friendly' association with GWS. We may need to go fishing elsewhere from here on in.
If we're still accepting salary dumps from this year onwards, we may not be doing it right.........which won't be the case as we will be doing it right. :)
 
Would love us to have a crack at Trent McKenzie. Would be great having him kick 70m punts

Fox Footy Longest Kick specialist.

Conditional footballer who doesn't work anywhere near enough defensively considering he plays down back. Better of with Buckley, at least you know he'll have his heart in it.
 
I read somewhere this years draft is felt to be very shallow only about 30 decent kids whereas next year is supposed to bat down to 80, so massive difference albeit it's early days

3 & 10 in this years draft is great in any draft year since day dot.

If, and I have no bloody idea, next year bats to 80 then using our second from next draft this year and then trading for more 3rd/4th rounders seems pretty good value considering what we pulled out in a deep draft last year.

A 1st and multiple 3rd/4ths next year suits me fine if it means we keep 3 & 10 this year whilst still picking up Kennedy and/or Smith (who I'm a bit meh on anyway)
 
Agree. I have no doubt this trade/draft period will be another big step forward and SOS will do some good deals. Another 8-12 changes and another massive step forward but NOT the end of the rebuild

I don't see an end to the rebuild. The '66 game rebuild' only brings the club to an equilibrium; lots of work to be done after that for sustainable success and competitiveness.

There should never be an end to a rebuild.
Keep building. Never stop.

There is a difference between rebuild and maintenance/improvement
developers......

BIG RANT COMING
Click off now if not like big rants.

The whole rebuild term is one of the biggest wanks and "fake news" in footy conversation.

Sure, a club that had success building a premiership winning list of players and their careers ending then has to look to a rebuild. Geelong is the perfect example with the end of the Bartel, Scarlett, Chapman, Johnson, Kelly, Enright, Corey, Ling, Mooney, Mackie and Lonergan era that got the club 3 premierships. As a general rule it was a group of players developing together and won premierships. When they get towards the end of their careers and retiring, the term rebuild, for once actually makes some sense. But for clubs that have not won premierships with a group of players or never really built a list primarily on drafting a classy core group of players to develop together, the whole notion of using the term rebuild is such a wank. What? Do you want to rebuild a list that got close or was average at best. What a stupid notion to hear fans of teams that never won flags, talk about rebuilds. I always shake my head when hear the term thrown around in conversations.

If a club has not won a premiership or had a draft build mentality it is a massive wank and for us since 1995 we never built anything of note through a draft era. For mine the first time we even tried with a genuine build mentality from ground zero was when we brought Silvagni in as General Manager of List Management and Strategy. That in itself was a title at the club never even heard before. It told me right there and then we finally got it in this draft era that begun over two decades earlier.

Throughout the mid 80's and early 90's we had moulded a premiership style list primarily through the pre-draft era with Silvagni, Kouta, Ratten, Dean, Sexton, Brown, Hanna, Christou etc etc through the old under 19's and zone systems and complimented it with the interstate payment of clearance fees for the Sticks and Braddles of this world. Once that group of players was getting to the end of careers there was NO STRATEGY. Certainly none that could be identified as a long term Carlton fan as the 1990's drew to a close.

Basically a good two decades to actually sink in we needed a strategy and then we have 2015!!!
SOS arrives as General Manager of List Management and Strategy. Finally! Finally a guy that saw the change of systems as a player, that saw how ****ed up it was to have no strategy and got handed a mess of a list to fix but needed to level the mess out and see it as GROUND ZERO.

It is not a ******* rebuild. We never built any ******* thing to consider worthy of trying to rebuild again like Geelong and Sydney have been doing after actually winning flags in the draft era.
We are actually building something from ground zero and if, and when, we win premierships then the phrase rebuild will actually have some sort of sense and meaning to it. But honestly even that is a bit of wank. What you want to do is as someone else posted "sustainable success" and another poster "Keep building. Never stop."

What we want to be doing as a list management strategy is always be regenerating the list once we got it to a level of premiership style quality in the first place. Once you hit the clear mark of best list in the league you want to keep aiming to regenerate the list resources to be even stronger or maintain being the best list at worst. It is not easy but that has to be the strategy of a club aiming to be clear best with multiple premierships. This whole notion of win one or two flags then go down ladder get early picks and rebuild is such a simpleton dopey footy fan mentality that only people that look up to likes of Jon Ralph as some expert deserve.
We are better than this as a club and group of supporters. I accept no club can win the premiership every year and dominate era after era but there is no reason to think you cannot be so good at regenerating your player list over time that you can continue to be in contention for decade after decade. Just takes having a bloody strategy of list regeneration to start with.

RANT OVER
:p

P.S. Go SOS!!!! Show em how it is done.
 
Lang is still young (turns 22 in November), and does have good skills. Was injured at the start of the year, so pre-season was interrupted as far as I know.

Miles is a 'no' for me. Does get plenty of the pill, but his turnovers are why he struggles to get a gig in their senior team.
I remember reading that Lang trained the house down in pre-season, so it must have been a short, early scare. Started the season just fine.

Your post makes absolutely no sense, I don't even know how to reply to it. You're 100% wrong if you think 5% of players aged 25 and over is 30 players. You are basically suggesting approximately 80% of AFL listed players are 25 and older, playing lists are just simply not made like that. Band 1 compo i.e. 5% of earners would have him in the top 15 players over 24, and if that number isn't 15, then maybe it could stretch out to 16 and maybe even 17 in a freak year, but it is nowhere near your estimate.
Allow me to explain: the 2 key is next to the 3 key. :p

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-03-16/afl-millionaires-club-swells-to-six-players

upload_2017-9-21_13-11-54.png
Using the total competition numbers, top 5% in 2016 was about $650k+ (again, you need to factor in the similarity of salaries, and that player #40 may share their figures with 5-10 other players).

Adjusting for salary cap inflation, that's $800k. Throwing Boyd's deal out of the mix will drop that a shade, and there's a strong possibility that most clubs will use this jump to better equalise their pay across the list, which may see this number slide a little more, which is why I think $750k is a safe area to declare the red line for band 1 compensation.

I'm sure I've said $700k is dangerous before, but the numbers are pretty much there before you, and largely indisputable.

Lang may well be a first round pick but for his current form and likely position as a flanker you can't pay any more than a late second round pick for him. He's a handy player though in theory... if he develops well, would certainly be a consistent contributor. Watched a fair bit of him last year, quicker than average, tidy skills and can defend well. Question is whether he can find it enough and hit the scoreboard.

...I'm describing Jed Lamb aren't I?
No. Lang would win 9 out of 10 foot races for the footy, while Lamb would win 3 out of 10.

Lang is demonstrably and significantly quicker just from watching one minute of him playing, I don't even understand where you're getting this from. Lang can play midfield, Lamb cannot.

You've been making some bizarre calls this season Zee, and this is right up there.

could we trade pick 3 to the cats for lang , cockatoo and some picks?
What picks would those be? :drunk:
 
Let's get something straight here please, and this applies to any trade hypotheticals that get posted.

If the Carlton Football Club is serious about building a quality list capable of winning premierships, they won't be trading away draft picks from the 2018 ND. In fact, the shrewd thing is for them to be loading up as much as possible inside the Top 30-35 spots.

Whilst many posters will want to get all clever and think they know better than some of the professional draft analysts, the over-riding opinion is that the 2018 draft pool is going to be another bumper crop, some are suggesting it will be a "Super Draft".

2017 is considered to be an "average" pool of players (ie. all of them have a few warts) with only a small handful at the pointy end who are genuine quality.

This is a year to (a) trade in proven players that fill a need, (b) buy/trade in more 2018 draft picks & (c) only go to the draft with minimal picks.

That is not the correct assessment of the 2017 draft pool. It is actually quite the opposite, lacking in the top end talent but with some reasonable depth. The first 4 players touted by most experts have some concerns, eg Rayner (endurance) etc. The 2018 draft pool has some really stand out top and talent, however it is way to early to call on whether there is any depth.
 
If we somehow get 10 for Gibbs theres no way we on trade that for pretty much 2 B graders Kennedy and Smith next yrs second and this yrs 3rd or 4th should get it done also id be happy to get Rockliff as long as it doesn't mean we could potentially lose Rayner in my opinion the most talented player in this yrs draft, has the potential to be a superstar in the mould of Martin/Green
 

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If we somehow get 10 for Gibbs theres no way we on trade that for pretty much 2 B graders Kennedy and Smith next yrs second and this yrs 3rd or 4th should get it done also id be happy to get Rockliff as long as it doesn't mean we could potentially lose Rayner in my opinion the most talented player in this yrs draft, has the potential to be a superstar in the mould of Martin/Green

So Pick 10 gets us an immediate A grader in the draft?? These GWS kids were high draft picks and it can take years to convert draft picks into A-Graders? Do you consider Petrovski-Seton, Weitering, Curnow, Mackay as A graders yet?
 
So we are going to end up with too much midfield depth after trades and the drafts, it seems?

You can virtually never have too much depth in the midfield.
Think about Gold Coast a couple of years back when they had a half decent midfield of Ablett, David Swallow, Bennell, O'Meara and Prestia. At one stage the whole best 5 of their mids were out.
If god willing we end up with 10 guns mids in my life time again, you just end up putting the others across wing, half back and forward line and bench rotations. It is a problem we want to have.
As a kid seeing Barry Armstrong, Trevor Keogh, Rod Ashman, Dennis Collins, Peter Francis, Greg Towns around in first season I followed in 78 I was more than happy to see young Jimmy Buckley, Kenny Sheldon, Alex Marcou, Vin Catoggio, Wayne Harmes, Wayne Johnston, David Glascott, Phil Maylin, Greg Wells and Frank Marchesani be added to the team over the next couple of years to have such a problem.
Trust me, too much midfield depth is fun!!!! Watching that team play from mid 78 to 1983 was as exciting as it can get. More please!!!!
 
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You can virtually never have too much depth in the midfield.
Think about Gold Coast a couple of years back when they had a half decent midfield of Ablett, David Swallow, Bennell, O'Meara and Prestia. At one stage the whole best 5 of their mids were out.
If god willing we end up with 10 guns mids in my life time again, you just end up putting the others across wing, half back and forward line and bench rotations. It is a problem we want to have.
As a kid seeing Barry Armstrong, Trevor Keogh, Rod Ashman, Dennis Collins, Peter Francis, Greg Towns around in first season I followed in 78 I was more than happy to see young Jimmy Buckley, Kenny Sheldon, Alex Marcou, Vin Catoggio, Wayne Harmes, Wayne Johnston, David Glascott, Phil Maylin, Greg Wells and Frank Marchesani be added to the team over the next couple of years to have such a problem.
Trust me, too much midfield depths is fun!!!! Watching that team play from mid 78 to 1983 was as exciting as it can get. More please!!!!
Lucky there was no salary cap back in those days......
 
You can virtually never have too much depth in the midfield.
Think about Gold Coast a couple of years back when they had a half decent midfield of Ablett, David Swallow, Bennell, O'Meara and Prestia. At one stage the whole best 5 of their mids were out.
If god willing we end up with 10 guns mids in my life time again, you just end up putting the others across wing, half back and forward line and bench rotations. It is a problem we want to have.
As a kid seeing Barry Armstrong, Trevor Keogh, Rod Ashman, Dennis Collins, Peter Francis, Greg Towns around in first season I followed in 78 I was more than happy to see young Jimmy Buckley, Kenny Sheldon, Alex Marcou, Vin Catoggio, Wayne Harmes, Wayne Johnston, David Glascott, Phil Maylin, Greg Wells and Frank Marchesani be added to the team over the next couple of years to have such a problem.
Trust me, too much midfield depths is fun!!!! Watching that team play from mid 78 to 1983 was as exciting as it can get. More please!!!!


I guess the mid 90s we had no shortage either, and that wasn't awful.. Greg Williams, Brett Ratten, Scott Camporeale, Brent Heaver, Craig Bradley, Fraser Brown, Anthony Koutoufides, Matthew Hogg..
 
I guess the mid 90s we had no shortage either, and that wasn't awful.. Greg Williams, Brett Ratten, Scott Camporeale, Brent Heaver, Craig Bradley, Fraser Brown, Anthony Koutoufides, Matthew Hogg..

Yep, we got some depth then too. Not the same depth in class when Hogg added but still that was the depth we needed. You don't need the depth we had in our 81 and 82 flags but good problem to have.
Rather have too much midfield depth than too much ruck and key forward depth.
 
So Pick 10 gets us an immediate A grader in the draft?? These GWS kids were high draft picks and it can take years to convert draft picks into A-Graders? Do you consider Petrovski-Seton, Weitering, Curnow, Mackay as A graders yet?
I know what you mean but our boys you mentioned are 18 to 20 and shown more than Kennedy and Smith who are both in there 20s
 
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