Preview Changes Round 9 vs Zak B

[threenewpadlocks]

Centre bounce is around 25 to 30% at most of stoppage.

It's not. It's 38% of all stoppages.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

There is a reason all AFL teams, State League teams and top clubs in local football all have assistamt coaches who look after stoppage

Because the other 3-4 assistant coaches care about the turnover game

 

[lachy]

Because the other 3-4 assistant coaches care about the turnover game

No they are line coaches

 

[threenewpadlocks]

No they are line coaches

... who care about how the lines play in the turnover game.

 

[lachy]

It's not. It's 38% of all stoppages.

So 62% in that game was still not at centre stoppage and still where the majority of score from stoppage came from for Freo. We actually scored more from centre bounce than they did and both teams scored more from stoppage than turnover

 

[lachy]

... who care about how the lines play in the turnover game.

So in yet another thread your bringing in an argument that has nothing to do with this time the ruck discussion for selection nor something I have ever argued or discuss. Thank god for the ignore option

 

[threenewpadlocks]

So 62% in that game was still not at centre stoppage and still where the majority of score from stoppage came from for Freo. We actually scored more from centre bounce than they did and both teams scored more from stoppage than turnover

Teams get around 20 centre bounce clearances, 28 around the ground clearances and about 85 intercept possessions and kick in per game.

It is obviously more important to be good at the thing that happens more often, especially as the rate of scoring from both stoppage and turnover is roughly similar.

 

[BEaston]

I will start with 3.
The point is in total less than 10% of marks are now contested, and usually they are a get out kick. The volume as evidenced by 12 contested marks in an entire game where 16 goals 11 were scored from stoppage shows clearly they are relarely a part of scores from stoppage. For example 2 of our 3 contested marks were intercept marks by Coffield. Given we only had 1 more contested mark yet scored 7 goals 6 from stoppage, their is little to know impact

point 4. The ruck contest at stoppage is only effective if it is to advantage and creates spread which often leads to score from that stoppage. If you break even You have a chance, when smashed 28 to 2 as Emmett was or we have been since English is out, only then does it become critical.

Point 5. Our injuries are significant. I should have said that is the one correlation you can adjust. Dale being put of form, Budarick injured lack of movement forward of the ball requires multiple changes

I only want Smith selected and not Emmett for multiple reasons including Emmett's development and to get competitive where we have become very uncompetitive and it is effecting our results. I would prefer Lobb, Darcy and even a fit Croft to Smith this week but they are not available

I think it would have been more clear if you just said "I don't care about contested marking because there aren't many of them". To somehow try and link it to scores from stoppage was where it went off the deep end for me.

What would be interesting to see is the relative value of a contested mark in scoring chains. ie if a scoring chain has a contested mark included, does it result in a higher/lower likelihood of scoring, or has no effect? My guess would be that it would increase the probability. I'm sure Champion Data would have this kind of statistical breakdown behind their paywall. I would love to see everything they have one day, would be very interesting.

 

[lachy]

I think it would have been more clear if you just said "I don't care about contested marking because there aren't many of them". To somehow try and link it to scores from stoppage was where it went off the deep end for me.

What would be interesting to see is the relative value of a contested mark in scoring chains. ie if a scoring chain has a contested mark included, does it result in a higher/lower likelihood of scoring, or has no effect? My guess would be that it would increase the probability. I'm sure Champion Data would have this kind of statistical breakdown behind their paywall. I would love to see everything they have one day, would be very interesting.

I will point out BEaston it was you not me that linked contested marks to clearances, I was merely pointing out there is no correlation.

Scoring chains is a different argument and I suspect you may well be correct. I would be good to see the comparison pre and post the stand rule, as I suspect Bev was correct with his Ping Pong statement and Contested marks which we as supporters love to see, have been eroded in their impact to make the game quicker with more scoring for TV and commercial opportunities

 

[BEaston]

I will point out BEaston it was you not me that linked contested marks to clearances, I was merely pointing out there is no correlation.

Scoring chains is a different argument and I suspect you may well be correct. I would be good to see the comparison pre and post the stand rule, as I suspect Bev was correct with his Ping Pong statement and Contested marks which we as supporters love to see, have been eroded in their impact to make the game quicker with more scoring for TV and commercial opportunities

huh? Clearances? we've been talking about scoring source from stoppage... This is where you linked them initially, to which I responded:

More contested marks I would hope. You know those that have little to no impact on scores from stoppage which occur with space created and any marks are generally uncontested moving the ball cleanly away from stoppage

Scoring chains is a different argument and I suspect you may well be correct. I would be good to see the comparison pre and post the stand rule, as I suspect Bev was correct with his Ping Pong statement and Contested marks which we as supporters love to see, have been eroded in their impact to make the game quicker with more scoring for TV and commercial opportunities

I wouldn't say scoring chains and scores from source are that different.... the source stat just breaks a chain down into the 3 possibilities of the initial start of the chain..... If you're agreeing that contested marking does impact on a scoring chain, then by definition it would have an impact on scoring source stat from clearance/turnover/kick in.

 

[lachy]

huh? Clearances? we've been talking about scoring source from stoppage... This is where you linked them initially, to which I responded:






I wouldn't say scoring chains and scores from source are that different.... the source stat just breaks a chain down into the 3 possibilities of the initial start of the chain..... If you're agreeing that contested marking does impact on a scoring chain, then by definition it would have an impact on scoring source stat from clearance/turnover/kick in.

You didn't detect the sarcasm in the post to Foxman98 who I know personally who was also being sarcastic about the same topic of marks being brought into a stoppage discussion?

Clearance is from stoppage, and scores from stoppage mostly occur from clean clearance where the likely hood of contested marks being involved is minimal at best.

The other 2 are not anything to do with goals from stoppage and contested marks from turnover are highly more likely to have turnover from contested mark as either pressure or poor skill execution creates the contested mark situation ie 2 of our 3 contested marks on the weekends game were intercept marks creating the turnover.

Kick ins also have a higher propensity for contested marks as they are often long kicks to a pack. Though scores from Kick ins are often through a breakdown of defensive structure and are more likely to be the much more common (up to 90% of all marks) uncontested.

The discussion has never been about scoring chains or scores from source as they can be the same things. They are about scores from stoppage which has completely different dynamics and issues to scores from turnover and kick ins by their very nature

 

[JohnnySteel]

Wonder if we pull the trigger on Garcia. Been out for awhile but no VFL this week.

 

[Foxman98]

Wonder if we pull the trigger on Garcia. Been out for awhile but no VFL this week.

For what?

His game last year vs Freo was dog shite

He isn't close to B23 when fit and given he isn't fit he is even further away

 

[JohnnySteel]

For what?

His game last year vs Freo was dog shite

He isn't close to B23 when fit and given he isn't fit he is even further away

Who else comes in for VDM?

 

[Bald]

Who else comes in for VDM?

Baker would, I assume?

 

[lachy]

Who else comes in for VDM?

Baker for one, maybe Hynes, if Budarick gets up Bramble can move to wing or half forward

 

[JohnnySteel]

Baker would, I assume?

Baker for one, maybe Hynes, if Budarick gets up Bramble can move to wing or half forward

Solid options. We shall see, I suppose. I just think if he wasn’t a chance, I doubt we would list him as test when we only have an AFL game to consider his selection.

 

[lachy]

Solid options. We shall see, I suppose. I just think if he wasn’t a chance, I doubt we would list him as test when we only have an AFL game to consider his selection.

One thing you noted that really has to be addressed our VFL Team having yet another bye.

Players coming back from injury get no opportunity to get a good block of games together before stepping up the the AFL, those on the periphery do not get the opportunity to get a good block of games together to push for AFL selection, and first and second year players just do not get the consistency to develop. A joke for a so called professional league.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

One thing you noted that really has to be addressed our VFL Team having yet another bye.

Players coming back from injury get no opportunity to get a good block of games together before stepping up the the AFL, those on the periphery do not get the opportunity to get a good block of games together to push for AFL selection, and first and second year players just do not get the consistency to develop. A joke for a so called professional league.

Is there any reason we don't arrange scratch matches against other VFL teams that also have byes (specifically those that are aligned to AFL clubs)?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Is there any reason we don't arrange scratch matches against other VFL teams that also have byes (specifically those that are aligned to AFL clubs)?

It's hard to ask VFL listed players who play in a non-competitive match that exists solely for the purpose of AFL-listed players to maintain fitness, when they themselves might want to play in a meaningful, competitive game for their local club. One reason it's hard is that these VFL listed players don't get paid money for scratch matches, but they do for playing for their local club.

There's been times where 3-4 clubs get together when they all have VFL byes and get their non-playing players to do a sort of match sim type training session with bigger numbers with this merged sort of club training. But clubs are hesitant to do that that often, you naturally don't want another club gaining intelligence about your players, especially if you're bringing more total players than the other club to the training session in the first place (so you gather less from other clubs than what you can offer them).

 

[lachy]

Is there any reason we don't arrange scratch matches against other VFL teams that also have byes (specifically those that are aligned to AFL clubs)?

Great question. I would say it could be an insurance issue, or a cost issue, but this week for example we could play Box Hill and the 2 Queensland sides could play each other. After Friday our AFL team will have played 9 games our VFL team 5 games. We have 1 more bye in June

 

[Dougs Wing]

We are likely to take 26 players over to SA. In the end it will be 2 or 3 changes to last weeks team.

 

[bigbulldog67]

Holy shit what a bad read, some people on this site genuinely have no idea. But hey have another word salad, imagine what they’re like in real life Jesus Christ

 

[Snarls Barkley]

We are likely to take 26 players over to SA. In the end it will be 2 or 3 changes to last weeks team.

Had it spot on last week

Vandermeer obviously forced, surely Emmett is another out. Wonder who the third in the gun might be or if it's injury related. Baker the only obvious in but I hope they go back to Jaques as well. I don't care how he played in the VFL, he was looking good at senior level

I hope they give Hynes a sustained block in the VFL side. Was completed lost at AFL level, sounds like he was good in the VFL last week. Let him keep developing his game at that level and have him come back into the AFL side when he understands his game better and with his confidence high. There's something there with him but it might be slower progress

 

[Mojorisin]

Had it spot on last week

Vandermeer obviously forced, surely Emmett is another out. Wonder who the third in the gun might be or if it's injury related. Baker the only obvious in but I hope they go back to Jaques as well. I don't care how he played in the VFL, he was looking good at senior level

I hope they give Hynes a sustained block in the VFL side. Was completed lost at AFL level, sounds like he was good in the VFL last week. Let him keep developing his game at that level and have him come back into the AFL side when he understands his game better and with his confidence high. There's something there with him but it might be slower progress

Budarick is almost a guarantee.