Play Nice 2012 Premiership ladder and Finals Predictor

[BotsMaster]

Unless Brisbane beat Adelaide at the GABBA this week , then this scenario is possible , but unlikely.

Don't write Brisbane off at home.

 

[Agis]

Don't write Brisbane off at home.

even though its our mate Brenton Sandersons team now (and Milburns) if they do lose this game and Sydney loses to Hawthorn, then geelong most likely will only have 1 away game in the finals and it will be the semi's rather than prelim, problem is though to make all games melbourne games we need the miraculous to happen (make the top 4). For the clubs honor I hope im wrong and Draw 3 plays out where we play Collingwood and Hawthorn (semi's and prelim) to make the Grand Final ..that would be icing on the cake.

 

[SuperCats9]

Regardless of where we are on the ladder, when we play our best, we can beat anyone, so we are a chance of winning the premiership this season. We might be 7th now, but i think we'll finish 5th or 6th, if we are lucky, 4th.

Once finals starts though, i'm sure our boys will be pumped and ready and we'll be playing our best footy.

 

[cat in sydney]

Adelaide 72
Collingwood 72
Sydney 68
Hawthorn 64
Geelong 60
West Coast 56
North 56
Freo 52

QF
Adelaide v Hawthorn
Collingwood v Sydney

EF
Geelong v Fremantle
West Coast v North Melbourne

SF
Hawthorn v Geelong
West Coast v Sydney

PF

Adelaide v Sydney
Collingwood v Geelong

GF
Adelaide v Collingwood

I have the same after my predictor experiment. Although, in a moment of fantasy, somehow the Cats get up over the Pies in the PF and march to the flag against Adelaide. Although I can't see it happening, the thing that gives a glimmer of hope is that we would have had a first up home final against interstate opposition, then face Hawthorn who has come back from a road trip to Adelaide. Increases chance of victory.

However, in this scenario, which I consider almost the best case, we have to beat both Hawks and Pies in consecutive weeks to even get to the GF. Not quite impossible, but almost.

 

[barmy44]

im thinking:

hawthorn
sydney
adelaide
collingwood
--------------
north
geelong
west coast
freo/carlton

i think we should take care of west coast (cannot see them beating haw and coll) week 1, and then it would be adelaide in adelaide, most likely, which is very winnable.

that would put us up against hawthorn or collingwood, right?

i feel like a PF is a good possibility, but a GF, while definitely possible, is perhaps a little optimistic.

still, its a very strange year - interested to see what happens to north in the finals. i dont mind them.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I reckon Sydney beat Hawk and lose to us and Hawks beat WC. This means Sydney first on 68, Adelaide second on 68, Hawks third on 64. Fourth spot is open and will depend on Pies/WCE game.

We either finish 5th 6th or 7th. Assuming we finish 6th we either get North or WCE in Melb, followed by either Adelaide or Hawthorn. Sounds good to me.

 

[barmy44]

I reckon Sydney beat Hawk and lose to us and Hawks beat WC. This means Sydney first on 68, Adelaide second on 68, Hawks third on 64. Fourth spot is open and will depend on Pies/WCE game.

We either finish 5th 6th or 7th. Assuming we finish 6th we either get North or WCE in Melb, followed by either Adelaide or Hawthorn. Sounds good to me.

you have just blown my prediction away. i forgot hawthorn played sydney...

 

[topic97]

I just had a play around with it and had us finishing 5th facing Carlton first week, should we win then we would face Hawks coming off a loss to Sydney in Sydney, then should we win that would face Collingwood at the MCG in the prelim after them having a week off.....

Could be a hard path but would assist us immensely not travelling the whole finals series.

Then assuming North & Swans play off in the other prelim and we get a win against the Pies it would be handy playing either Swans that wouldnt have played a final at the MCG this year(to that point) or North who have only played one game at the MCG all year against a small crowd.

If it pans out like this and we get through the first 3 weeks and into the Grand Final we are in with a very good shot of going back to back.

So mine is:
Week 1
Swans v Hawks
Cats v Carlton
North v Eagles
Crows v Pies

Week 2
Cats v Hawks
North v Crows

Week 3
Cats v Pies
North V Swans ?

Would be hard but if we get over the line we would have to nearly be favorites for the flag.....

 

[My5t3r10u5]

I have us finishing fourth

Eagles beat Pies then lose to Hawks, Bombers beat Pies and we smash Doggies and Swans - fourth on percentage

Hey, a boy can dream...

 

[senoroctober]

im thinking:

hawthorn
sydney
adelaide
collingwood
--------------
north
geelong
west coast
freo/carlton

i think we should take care of west coast (cannot see them beating haw and coll) week 1, and then it would be adelaide in adelaide, most likely, which is very winnable.

that would put us up against hawthorn or collingwood, right?

i feel like a PF is a good possibility, but a GF, while definitely possible, is perhaps a little optimistic.

still, its a very strange year - interested to see what happens to north in the finals. i dont mind them.

I feel that the ladder may indeed look like this. would have to feel the boys have a good chance at beating the coasters.

 

[barmy44]

Don't write Brisbane off at home.

sage advice...

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

A few issues with the ladder predictor, particularly that there should be more margin increments. You may not think that Team A will beat Team B by 100 points, but you think they will win by more than 60 points. And that could quite easily be the difference between finishing above a team and finishing below them. A hundred point win obviously makes a big difference, depending on whether you win 120-20, or 220-120. And another problem that I find is trying to put away my 'Geelong supporter' hat with regards to the other results. Anyway, here's mine. The issue with not being able to pick any margin obviously means that 5th/6th and 8th/9th may have changed if I could pick any margin.

 

[candiehappy]

that's an interesting one MC. The difference between 5th and 6th being .1 of percentage!

I can't see Hawthorn dropping to fourth, except in my dreams. It's an interesting end to the season.

 

[SJ]

A few issues with the ladder predictor, particularly that their should be more margin increments. You may not think that Team A will beat Team B by 100 points, but you think they will win by more than 60 points. And that could quite easily be the difference between finishing above a team and finishing below them. A hundred point win obviously makes a big difference, depending on whether you win 120-20, or 220-120. And another problem that I find is trying to put away my 'Geelong supporter' hat with regards to the other results. Anyway, here's mine. The issue with not being able to pick any margin obviously means that 5th/6th and 8th/9th may have changed if I could pick any margin.

That would be almost my ideal top 8 from here.

 

[winty]

A few issues with the ladder predictor, particularly that their should be more margin increments. You may not think that Team A will beat Team B by 100 points, but you think they will win by more than 60 points. And that could quite easily be the difference between finishing above a team and finishing below them. A hundred point win obviously makes a big difference, depending on whether you win 120-20, or 220-120. And another problem that I find is trying to put away my 'Geelong supporter' hat with regards to the other results. Anyway, here's mine. The issue with not being able to pick any margin obviously means that 5th/6th and 8th/9th may have changed if I could pick any margin.

I know what you mean. I was playing around with the ladder predictor the other day, and had both us and North finishing with a 15-7 record and 120.6%.

 

[SJ]

Say the above turned out, except Carlton makes up the 0.3% on Fremantle and finishes eighth.

Under that scenario I'd much rather finish sixth and play West Coast in Melbourne than finish fifth and play Carlton.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

That would be almost my ideal top 8 from here.

Yeah, like I said, it's very tough to do it all, from a completely unbiased perspective. I can only do 'optimistic' and 'extremely pessimistic', with nothing in between.

In that scenario, the Carlton v St Kilda game would be gold too with the idiot commentators trying to figure out the percentages with the live ladder (Hamish McLachlan was acting like every rushed behind on Saturday was the difference between Carlton or Essendon being eighth on the live ladder, when Carlton was really about 5+ goals worth of percentage ahead for pretty much the entire second half).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

that's an interesting one MC. The difference between 5th and 6th being .1 of percentage!

I can't see Hawthorn dropping to fourth, except in my dreams. It's an interesting end to the season.

Hawthorn could actually, if they lose their last 2, drop to 5th, and Collingwood could drop to 7th.

Not saying either will happen, but that just shows you how congested the ladder is and how hard it is to predict anything at present.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Say the above turned out, except Carlton makes up the 0.3% on Fremantle and finishes eighth.

Under that scenario I'd much rather finish sixth and play West Coast in Melbourne than finish fifth and play Carlton.

Yeah, especially if Adelaide finishes second or third (which seems likely). An interstate team in Melbourne followed by a shaky Adelaide in Adelaide is about the best draw we could hope for (from outside the top 4) I think, and would give us a real chance of progressing to prelim week.

 

[candiehappy]

Hawthorn could actually, if they lose their last 2, drop to 5th, and Collingwood could drop to 7th.

Not saying either will happen, but that just shows you how congested the ladder is and how hard it is to predict anything at present.

that is amazing PO. I feel that if hawthorn stay in the top 2 and win their first final then they are a monty to take the flag. That said, could easily lose to sydney in sydney. Can't see the bulldogs giving them much grief.

In my heart I can see us on a clear run to back to back. My head and the history of the top 8 gives me a different outcome ...

 

[Belisarius]

I reckon the most likely out come is that the Hawks finsih on top of the ladder, like we did in 2008. We finish 6 th, North 5th, WC 7th and Carlton 8th. With so many crunch games will be hard to get exactly right - but this seems most likely to me.

Then it will be Sydney V North and Geelong v Adelaide (over there).

Reckon Sydney will beat North and we will scrap in against Adelaide. And that leads us to play the Premiership favourites Hawthorn. Not sure we can win 10 in a row (9 lives and all that) against our biggest foe.

Not that we cannot win - just we will certainly be underdogs against them.

Who knows from there what will happen ? But GFC would have done very well to get that far given all the injuries thru the year and having an unsettled side with a few players a little off their best in recent times.

Its just that I hate losing to Hawthorn more than any other team.

It would be a sensational win if we pull it off - against the odds stuff. If that did happen then I reckon it is a 50/50 chance of us winning the Premiership.

 

[Belisarius]

i

im thinking:

hawthorn
sydney
adelaide
collingwood
--------------
north
geelong
west coast
freo/carlton

i think we should take care of west coast (cannot see them beating haw and coll) week 1, and then it would be adelaide in adelaide, most likely, which is very winnable.

that would put us up against hawthorn or collingwood, right?

i feel like a PF is a good possibility, but a GF, while definitely possible, is perhaps a little optimistic.

still, its a very strange year - interested to see what happens to north in the finals. i dont mind them.

Yeah I see it turning out this way too. But hell Brisbane beat Adelaide ??? Just so hard to predict - when normally by this time in the season - we have a good idea who will win in the last couple of games.

 

[fpm84]

As others have said, I'm worried about potentially playing Carlton in week one. They're looking really good at the moment with most of their injured stars back and their confidence up. They've comfortably beaten the Pies twice this year and pushed us when they were seriously depleted and out of form.

Best case scenario would be WCE or Fremantle in Melbourne, and if this means finishing 6th instead of 5th (as if Carlton make it, it will only be in 8th spot), I'm happy for it to happen.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

that is amazing PO. I feel that if hawthorn stay in the top 2 and win their first final then they are a monty to take the flag. That said, could easily lose to sydney in sydney. Can't see the bulldogs giving them much grief.

In my heart I can see us on a clear run to back to back. My head and the history of the top 8 gives me a different outcome ...

At least you'll still die happy.

 

[barmy44]

i


Yeah I see it turning out this way too. But hell Brisbane beat Adelaide ??? Just so hard to predict - when normally by this time in the season - we have a good idea who will win in the last couple of games.

i actually dont think it is possible that hawthorn finish first, sydney second and us fifth.

i did the ladder off the top of my head, and may have neglected the fact that sydney play both hawthorn and us.

i guess if adelaide and collingwood drop one each of the last two it is possible.

maybe switch adelaide with sydney?

either way, i think the ladder i came up with is slightly flawed.