2015 Draft Discussion

[cheekyLionsFan]

Yep, provided Collingwood come to the party with a mutually fair deal. Absolutely no reason for us to be panicking on Day 3 of the trade period.

Honestly I just want to send him to the draft

 

[Dylan12]

Honestly I just want to send him to the draft

Agreed, unless an offer is simply too good to pass up i.e. overs in our favour, otherwise the message the club was intending to send was empty and meaningless.

 

[cmt26]

A lot of talk today about Hawthorn successfully clustering their picks together so their core all peak at the same time. Makes me think, looking good for us in 5 years time if we can have a core of Andrews, Keays, Hipwood, Schache, could be the core of our side for our next tilt. Not to mention whoever comes good out of our current youngsters. Here's hoping we look back at this draft in 5 years time as a key moment for us.

This is something I'm big on.
I hope our 2013 crop (McStay, Gardiner, Taylor, Robertson, Cutler, Freeman, Jansen) plus 2014 (Andrews & McGrath) plus this year (Hipwood, Keays, Schache & Chol). turn out to be our "nailed drafts".
That's 13 players who have came through the door at the same time who all have the potential to be strong AFL players. I just hope that we can hold onto them and they develop into players capable of winning us a premiership.

 

[Dylan12]

This is something I'm big on.
I hope our 2013 crop (McStay, Gardiner, Taylor, Robertson, Cutler, Freeman, Jansen) plus 2014 (Andrews & McGrath) plus this year (Hipwood, Keays, Schache & Chol). turn out to be our "nailed drafts".
That's 13 players who have came through the door at the same time who all have the potential to be strong AFL players. I just hope that we can hold onto them and they develop into players capable of winning us a premiership.

Yep, all you want is a core group of players to take absolute ownership in this club much the same as our core premiership group did that for the large part; were teammates for 10+ years.

 

[Balony_pony16]

We don't have to trade Aish unless it's a "win-win". Leigh Matthews is past his time to be thinking like that... I just hope that the crew that actually deal with the list management don't listen to him... look at the shape he left our list when he was sacked.

He got us Leuy at pick 4

 

[SizeMatters]

He got us Leuy at pick 4

 

[Balony_pony16]

I'll be pissed if we let Aish walk without even trying to trade.. Our list managers have already stuff the Leuy situation. Time to get some 2nd round picks in

 

[Nunez]

I'll be pissed if we let Aish walk without even trying to trade.. Our list managers have already stuff the Leuy situation. Time to get some 2nd round picks in

We stuffed the fact the AFL lowballed us with the compo?

 

[spotthedog1]

I don't know, it's easy to panic from how I see it.
If we trade Aish it gets us Astbury, Bell, Casboult and Bastinac. Without costing us our academy kids.

I'll be pissed if we let Aish walk without even trying to trade.. Our list managers have already stuff the Leuy situation. Time to get some 2nd round picks in

How many 2nd rounders do you guys reckon we're going to get. He's an out-of-contract 2nd year player who didn't immediately hit All Australian form. On historical basis, that gets us 1x early 2nd round pick. If we get 2x early 2nd round picks, that is actually points equivalent to pick 7... Which won't happen... You'll effectively trade Aish for Astbury OR Bell OR Casboult, maybe with a pick upgrade or similar.

 

[Balony_pony16]

We stuffed the fact the AFL lowballed us with the compo?

They went hard on the Aish Situation thinking they would get a higher pick and it failed... could be seen as a good effort but essentially it is a mistake now. Time to Deal with Aish

 

[Balony_pony16]

How many 2nd rounders do you guys reckon we're going to get. He's an out-of-contract 2nd year player who didn't immediately hit All Australian form. On historical basis, that gets us 1x early 2nd round pick. If we get 2x early 2nd round picks, that is actually points equivalent to pick 7... Which won't happen... You'll effectively trade Aish for Astbury OR Bell OR Casboult, maybe with a pick upgrade or similar.

well really we dont know because they arent even talking to Pies or anyone on the trade table... but surely we could push for two 2nd rounders

 

[Surly Boy]

Story on Reuben William.

Sounds like a good kid - hope we can pick him up in the draft this year.

 

[bato]

'I'm here, I'm happy, that's all that matters': Reuben's remarkable draft journey

REUBEN William's beaming smile and genial nature masks a torrid, tragic upbringing.

The South Sudanese speedster has certainly come from a long way back to be in the frame for next month's NAB AFL Draft.

When William was an infant, his father Deng was among two million people to die during Sudan's civil war, which ravaged their homeland from 1983-2005.

William can't remember his father.

The family lived in South Sudan, where the war started and which remained a hotbed of conflict.

It still is –another horrific civil war has raged in the fledgling republic since December 2013.

Reuben William's mother Veronica did it hard with her five children, of which Reuben was the second-youngest.

"Mum is always telling us how hard life was (back in Sudan)," he toldAFL.com.au.

"She worked in construction so she'd have to carry three bricks on her head to carry them from one site to another.

"What she had to do just to get money to feed us was really tough. She's sacrificed heaps for us – and she still does – and we'll always be grateful for that."

Veronica William fled Sudan with her children to Kenya, where they spent considerable time in a refugee camp.

They had each other, and some dreams for a better life, but little else.

They migrated to Australia in 2002, when William was four, and he hasn't looked back.

The family settled in Brisbane and received some much-needed help from a Christian support group.

Now 17, William insists he has never pondered what his life might have been like had his family remained in South Sudan.

"I'm here, I'm happy, that's all that matters. I prefer to keep looking forward to all the exciting possibilities," he said.

The main one being his prospective AFL career.

Lightning quick and with a flair for ball sports, William gave up soccer, rugby and basketball in his mid-teens to focus on footy.

"I was better at it than I was at the other sports, so it was an easy decision," he said.

He picked up the game quickly, crediting much of his early development to Zillmere juniors stalwart and "father figure" Maurie Fitzgerald.

"Maurie and his wife Vera have been like a second family for me," he said.

William also received encouragement from his mother.

"Mum just wanted us to socialise and have fun, and there's no better way to do that than play footy. I've already made mates for life," he said.

An early inspiration was fellow Sudanese player Aliir Aliir, the Swans' developing tall.

"Aliir's a local (Brisbane) boy who's only a few years older than me, and I went to his place when he was younger," William said.

"It's great when someone you know makes it because it gives you something to aspire to."

William is rated a chance to be a late pick or a rookie selection.

A Brisbane Lions fan, he is a member of the Lions' talent academy and this year had the "unbelievable thrill" of playing with the club's reserves in the NEAFL.

The medium-sized defender was also integral to Queensland's effort to win the second division title in this year's NAB AFL U18 Championships.

William averaged 17 disposals (seven contested) in three games and was named in Queensland's best players each time, including second-best in the final against NSW/ACT.

He was perhaps unlucky not to make the All Australian team.

"I was a little bit disappointed to miss out, but I had a good (championships), that's the main thing," he said.

William was also mildly disappointed not to achieve his pre-season goal of being nominated for the NEAFL's rising star award, but his cause wasn't helped by a groin injury that prematurely ended his season.

Until then, William had played eight NEAFL games – each in losing teams – and gathered at least 15 possessions in half of them.

His standout performance was against the Sydney Swans reserves when he had 23 touches (10 contested) at 83 per cent efficiency.

"Playing in the NEAFL was a great learning curve," William said.

"It was so fast and you need to have good reactions and make good decisions because if you get it wrong it can have big ramifications."

Williams also represented Queensland in five TAC Cup games, averaging 18.6 possessions, with a best effort of 28 disposals against top team North Ballarat at Eureka Stadium.

He's quick, evasive, has good ball skills, takes the game on, is hard at it and a strong tackler.

"I like to read the play from half-back and pick the right time to leave my man and go, which helps me get to space and break the lines," William said.

Although he doesn't model himself on any AFL player in particular, he says he plays in a similar vein to Western Bulldogs speedster Jason Johannisen.

William eventually wants to become an "explosive midfielder who can break out of stoppages", but admits that he first needs to improve his endurance and kicking penetration.

He hasn't been given any assurances by AFL clubs but still bubbles with positivity.

"Every time I go to the Lions academy, I ask myself, 'What can I do this session to help me be better for the next game?' I just want to keep improving," he said.

He is studying for a bachelor of exercise and sports science, and loves helping out with some junior coaching at a local football club.

"I've got a better footy brain than most Sudanese guys, probably because I've immersed myself in it for a long, long time. I'm obsessed with it," he said.

"I watch heaps of footy, and I love AFL Fantasy footy. It's a big competition between me and my mates."

William is excited by the prospect of more players with Sudanese backgrounds joining AFL ranks, and believes his 15-year-old brother Isaac, who is also in the Lions academy, could have a great future.

"At the same age, he's a better player than I was. He's taller and he's got more tools. He's one to watch," big brother said.

 

[jjami15]

Great story and when you take into consideration the spot that we're in with the likes of Aish and others I would rather take on board the people of Williams and Keays calibre to take this club forward.

 

[John_Proctor]

If we could get say 25+35 for aish it would still give us much better flexibility than we have today on matching academy bids and trading for the various 2nd tier targets we are talking about where a pick in the 30's is probably fair compo.

 

[TheZork]

If we could get say 25+35 for aish it would still give us much better flexibility than we have today on matching academy bids and trading for the various 2nd tier targets we are talking about where a pick in the 30's is probably fair compo.

Surely we wouldn't accept that I'd be pushing for their two early second rounder 24 (freeman) + 26 as well as a pick upgrade of out leuy compo 40 to their 35 (from gc)

 

[DaZorko]

Are these academy kids as good as the rest the talent pool ?

 

[theteamtobeat]

Surely we wouldn't accept that I'd be pushing for their two early second rounder 24 (freeman) + 26 as well as a pick upgrade of out leuy compo 40 to their 35 (from gc)

Trade James Aish + Pick 17 = Pick 24 (St Kilda) + Pick 26 (Collingwood) + Pick 27 (GWS) + Pick 35 (Gold Coast)

 

[theteamtobeat]

Are these academy kids as good as the rest the talent pool ?

The pool isn't that great, it's more of a puddle.

 

[spotthedog1]

If we could get say 25+35 for aish it would still give us much better flexibility than we have today on matching academy bids and trading for the various 2nd tier targets we are talking about where a pick in the 30's is probably fair compo.

Trade James Aish + Pick 17 = Pick 24 (St Kilda) + Pick 26 (Collingwood) + Pick 27 (GWS) + Pick 35 (Gold Coast)

People - the maths isn't that hard. John Proctor, 25+35 is worth pick 11. I struggle to see anyone paying that. That said, it's better than tttb's projection, which values Aish at pick 6... May as well ask them to throw Pendles in with it.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

People - the maths isn't that hard. John Proctor, 25+35 is worth pick 11. I struggle to see anyone paying that. That said, it's better than tttb's projection, which values Aish at pick 6... May as well ask them to throw Pendles in with it.

The points are a guide, and when mixing and matching with lower picks it throws it out even more.

I'd struggle to find anyone who'd trade pick 11 for 25 + 35. The points formula is good for a guide, but it has limitations in reality.

 

[dlanod]

People - the maths isn't that hard. John Proctor, 25+35 is worth pick 11. I struggle to see anyone paying that. That said, it's better than tttb's projection, which values Aish at pick 6... May as well ask them to throw Pendles in with it.

The points are a guide, and when mixing and matching with lower picks it throws it out even more.

I'd struggle to find anyone who'd trade pick 11 for 25 + 35. The points formula is good for a guide, but it has limitations in reality.

After reading far too many posts on the D&T board I've found that the points formula is only useful if you're trading the same number of picks/moving parts. If you start combining picks it doesn't really work. The clubs have hewn relatively close to the draft pick values when trading just picks in recent years, e.g. Geelong/Adelaide last year, but combining two or three worse picks for one better pick doesn't really work under the points value unless you find an academy team needing the points with the better pick.

 

[Roylion]

The points are a guide, and when mixing and matching with lower picks it throws it out even more.

I'd struggle to find anyone who'd trade pick 11 for 25 + 35. The points formula is good for a guide, but it has limitations in reality.

The points are arbitrary amounts decided by the AFL for a particular purpose. I'd rather Pick 11 rather than a combination of 25 and 35 any day of the week.

 

[spotthedog1]

I get that the points aren't exact, and different teams value picks differently, but they were calculated using statistical analyses of previous pick trades, so it is a rough average of the value AFL clubs place on them, so I like to use the chart when someone throws up a complex mix of picks to figure out roughly what they're actually valuing it at. For the Lions, we have such a dearth of 1st round picks (or better, top 10 picks), that I'd pay overs to get them, but other clubs may be the reverse, and prefer a couple of options.

I'd disagree with Dlanod's opinion that it's thrown out further by combining picks when it comes to the actual clubs and not just the fans, most of whom would say exactly what I just said about being willing to pay overs for a top 10 pick... Which now makes me wonder whether my view above is realistic or just another fan overstating the value of top-10 picks... actually, thinking about it, I think that our club might value high picks less than others, as they find it easier to keep 2nd rd picks at the club (as they are, I would think, probably more grateful for a spot on a list than a top 10 pick, who has been told for the last few years that he poops rainbows).

 

[chopperduck]

I thought they looked at the average salary of past players taken at certain picks to calculate the points value.