2015 Draft Discussion

[JasperBeardly]

That doesn't sound right. I don't think you pick nor does the round determine where your points come from in the following year, I believe they come off your first, but will defer to others in the know.

Emma Quayle has covered this in her article yesterday on the new bidding system.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/injury...e-new-afl-bidding-system-20151112-gkxg8b.html


"There's that word again: deficit. Does this mean that a club can continue to match bids if it runs out of points in a draft?
They can, to a point. Clubs that don't have the required number of points to match bids for one or more of their players are able to eat into their points allowance from the following year's draft. For example, say a club ends up 'owing' 250 points after this year's draft. Those points will be subtracted from their 2016 points balance.

Will the points be subtracted from their first pick?
If that's where the bid they are matching was placed.

Under that scenario, the club's future first pick will be repositioned in the drafted order. Owing 300 points, for instance, would see pick 4 moved to pick 7. However, if a club runs out of points matching a bid for a player in the third round, the points owed would be subtracted from their future third round selection. That pick would also then be repositioned in the draft order, according to the DVI.
In the event that a club has traded out the future pick they need to pay back any owed points, the points will be subtracted from their next selection. If they've brought a future pick back in as a replacement - Brisbane this year traded a future third round pick to Geelong but got one back from North Melbourne - any owed points will be taken from the pick traded in.

How much deficit can you go into?
Only so much. The deficit limit is set at 1723 points (the equivalent of the first four picks assigned to the premier side each year, 18, 36, 54 and 72)."

 

[Ironmonger]

That is an extraordinary article by Emma Quayle. Thanks JasperBeardly for posting it.

However, I think I see a small mistake!

This year, there could be up to five players bid for in the first round: Callum Mills, Jacob Hopper, Matthew Kennedy, Eric Hipwood and Ben Keays.

Mills is a Swans Academy player, Hopper and Kennedy are part of the GWS Academy and Hipwood and Keays are Lions Academy graduates.

Should all four players be bid for in the first 12, Adelaide's pick 13 would become pick 18. North Melbourne's pick 17 would become 22, and so on.

GWS hold pick 10, which would be one of the picks used on Hopper or Kennedy, so most likely Adelaide and North's picks go down four spots, not five.

Someone feel free to correct me if I have that wrong.

 

[Quigley]

For those in the know how would you compare Hipwood to Ayce Cordy back in his draft year of 08? I seem to recall many describing Cordy as a skinny, athletic 200cm + type that had the traits to play anywhere on the ground once he matured. Admittedly I don't know anything of Hipwood other than what gets posted here, but the description of his attributes rang a few bells.

Hipwood is more mobile and just has more idea about how to play football.

 

[Skoob]

Emma Quayle has covered this in her article yesterday on the new bidding system.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/injury...e-new-afl-bidding-system-20151112-gkxg8b.html


"There's that word again: deficit. Does this mean that a club can continue to match bids if it runs out of points in a draft?
They can, to a point. Clubs that don't have the required number of points to match bids for one or more of their players are able to eat into their points allowance from the following year's draft. For example, say a club ends up 'owing' 250 points after this year's draft. Those points will be subtracted from their 2016 points balance.

Will the points be subtracted from their first pick?
If that's where the bid they are matching was placed.

Under that scenario, the club's future first pick will be repositioned in the drafted order. Owing 300 points, for instance, would see pick 4 moved to pick 7. However, if a club runs out of points matching a bid for a player in the third round, the points owed would be subtracted from their future third round selection. That pick would also then be repositioned in the draft order, according to the DVI.
In the event that a club has traded out the future pick they need to pay back any owed points, the points will be subtracted from their next selection. If they've brought a future pick back in as a replacement - Brisbane this year traded a future third round pick to Geelong but got one back from North Melbourne - any owed points will be taken from the pick traded in.

How much deficit can you go into?
Only so much. The deficit limit is set at 1723 points (the equivalent of the first four picks assigned to the premier side each year, 18, 36, 54 and 72)."

Fair enough, I stand corrected. Is that a change to the original arrangement?

 

[dlanod]

Fair enough, I stand corrected. Is that a change to the original arrangement?

It changed in August this year.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-08/league-adds-safety-net-to-draft-future-picks

 

[jackess]

Posters who continue to find ways to panic about missing out on Schache/Keays/Hipwood should receive an electric jolt from their PCs. There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes and the Lions netting the aforementioned draftees next week.

I'm more worried about somebody stealing the Paine Train from us.

 

[Skoob]

It changed in August this year.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-08/league-adds-safety-net-to-draft-future-picks

Cheers. Wasn't aware of the change, and thought the previous was as I recalled.

 

[Yoda_]

I like a lot of the champion data material they use but the ratings they use for the draft are the biggest load of bollocks that you will see at this time of year. They are supposedly statistical based but are in fact guesses dressed up as something they are not.

Agree with this. Don't know how you can give rankings to guys who haven't played

 

[SizeMatters]

Let's say we get bids later than expected for Hipwood and Keays... We keep pick 38 or whatever who do we take? I saw a mock that had OKearney and liked the look of it for a late ish pick. I don't think we will take a QLD academy kid unless they are bidded on. Any decent kids at late 30s or early 40s?

My ideal would be A.Johnson but no way he slides that far...

 

[Panthera]

Let's say we get bids later than expected for Hipwood and Keays... We keep pick 38 or whatever who do we take? I saw a mock that had OKearney and liked the look of it for a late ish pick. I don't think we will take a QLD academy kid unless they are bidded on. Any decent kids at late 30s or early 40s?

My ideal would be A.Johnson but no way he slides that far...

Gotta remember that a number of picks in the 30's will be gobbled up by academy boys so 42 may in fact end up being 35th player picked.

And Johnson would be around that mark

Can't wait!!!

 

[Milux]

Posters who continue to find ways to panic about missing out on Schache/Keays/Hipwood should receive an electric jolt from their PCs. There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes and the Lions netting the aforementioned draftees next week.

Love your optimism(meanwhile im laying on the floor from multiple shocks and 3rd degree burns.)

 

[Panthera]

Hawthorn list builder Gary Buckenara weighs in with his mock draft...

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...d/news-story/8b57a8034aeac9a47d9db82d0dd05cfe

Hippy @ 16
Keays @ 19

Yep. We'd take that

 

[Panthera]

And now it's behind their paywall...so here:

BUCKENARA’S PHANTOM DRAFT TOP 30

1. Carlton — Jacob Weitering

Defender, 195cm, 91kg, Dandenong Stingrays/Mt Eliza/The Peninsula School

Gary Buckenara says: This is a really important pick for the Blues and it will deliver a key-position defender in Weitering who can also play a forward role. He will predominantly be that key defender and should play senior footy in 2016. He’s a potential captain.

2. Brisbane Lions — Josh Schache

Forward, 199cm, 96kg, Murray Bushrangers/Seymour

Buckenara says: Schache will be a really good pick for Brisbane because he’s exactly what they need — he’s exactly what every club needs because this type of player is so hard to find. He’s a forward/ruckman with agility, reasonable pace and a reasonable leap to be able to go into the ruck when needed. He’s a beautiful kick on goal and hardly ever misses inside 50.

3. Melbourne — Darcy Parish

Midfielder, 181cm, 74kg, Geelong Falcons/Winchelsea

Buckenara says: Melbourne could bid for Swans Academy midfielder Callum Mills but I think they’ll go straight for Darcy Parish instead. Parish to me is the quality midfielder of this year’s draft pool. He’s got good pace, can win his own footy, is a good decision-maker and kicks the ball very well. Even though Melbourne has a lot of midfielders already, he’s the type of player who has proven in the Under-18s he can play a defensive role behind the footy and be a smart set-up player or go into the midfield and play as a ball-winner with pace and outside run.

Draft hopeful Darcy Parish. Picture: Peter Ristevski
4. Sydney Swans — Callum Mills

Midfielder, 186cm, 80kg, Sydney Swans Academy/North Shore

Buckenara says: An in and under midfielder, Mills is a competitive animal who is super fit, dedicated, has an elite kick and is a potential captain material down the track. He’s a class act.

*I expect Essendon to bid for Swans Academy player Callum Mills and the Swans will match it by using a combination of draft picks that equal pick 4.

5. Essendon — Aaron Francis

Forward/defender, 191cm, 92kg, West Adelaide/Woxton North

Buckenara says: Francis is a bit of a Josh Gibson type. He’s a tall defender who can come third man in because he reads the play really well but can also go forward and take a mark and kick a goal. Potentially, he could be a bigger-bodied midfielder, so he’s very adaptable in where he can play. There are question marks on his endurance, so I suspect he’ll play a defensive third-man role given the Bombers lost Jake Carlisle.

6. GWS Giants — Jacob Hopper

Midfielder, 187cm, 88kg, GWS Academy/North Ballarat

Buckenara says: Hopper is very similar to Mills but probably needs to work on his kicking a little bit. He’s a competitive in-and-under player who makes good decisions with the ball.

*I also expect the Bombers to bid for Jacob Hopper and the Giants will match it again by using a combination of draft picks that equal pick 6.

7. Essendon — Charlie Curnow

Forward/midfielder, 191cm, 95kg, Geelong Falcons/Torquay

Buckenara says: For the size factor I think the Bombers should go with Curnow. He can be a power forward but because he’s so athletic he can also play as a big-bodied midfielder and win the ball a bit, just like Jarryd Roughead. He can actually also do what Roughead does and that’s go into the ruck, but he can also go in and not ruck but win clearances. To me, that fits a need at Essendon. When the key-position players are there, it’s very hard not to pick them instead of midfielders because it’s a bit easier to find them.

Charlie Curnow at Jan Juc beach. Picture: Nigel Hallett
8. GWS Giants — Matthew Kennedy

Midfielder, 187cm, 88kg, GWS Academy/Collingullie

Buckenara says: A nice size, Kennedy can play as a high half-forward. He’s very clever, reads the play well, has a great pair of hands, makes good decisions and is a beautiful kick..

*I expect the Suns to bid for GWS Academy player Matthew Kennedy and the Giants will match it by using a combination of draft picks that equal pick 8.

9. Gold Coast — Sam Weideman

Forward, 196cm, 94kg, Eastern Ranges/Vermont

Buckenara says: Sam has been injured but I liken him to a young Matthew Pavlich. He has very similar traits to Pavlich in that he competes really well, kick the ball well, he’s very athletic, is a nice size and is a potential key-position player. He does need to put a bit more of a body on and needs to get his injuries right, but he’d be a good fit. When the key-position players are there, clubs would be mad to bypass them.

10. Melbourne — Kieran Collins

Defender, 194cm, 100kg, Dandenong Stingrays/Langwarrin/Haileybury College

Buckenara says: Given that Melbourne gets Parish at pick 3, I’d go Collins here even though a lot of people have him going a bit further down the order. I still think he’s going to be a beauty as a key defender. He’s a Brian Lake type, he’s going to be a really big, strong man down back who is able to play on those strong forwards like Tom Hawkins. Sometimes it’s hard to find guys who are capable on playing on those big forwards, so when you’ve got a guy like Collins, who makes good decisions with the footy, is a good kick, reads the play quite well, he’d be an excellent pick and good fit for what Melbourne needs.

Kieran Collins had an outstanding year as a key defender. Picture: Colleen Petch
11. Carlton — Darcy Tucker

Half-back, 184cm, 80kg, North Ballarat/Horsham Saints

Buckenara says: Tucker is a beautiful left-foot kick, he has good endurance, reasonable pace, makes good decisions with the footy and adds a touch of class. He’s a bit of a ball carrier — he’s not afraid to take players on. He’s actually not too dissimilar to Kade Simpson and the Blues need another player like that. He’s also potential captain material going forward.

12. Adelaide — Wayne Milera

Half-forward, 185cm, 75kg, Central Districts/Ingle Farm

Buckenara says: A really clever player with good leg speed, makes good decisions with the footy and can play forward and midfield. He’s another type who can add class and polish to the Crows.

13. Carlton — Harry McKay

Forward, 200cm, 95kg, Gippsland Power/Warragul

Buckenara says: Given I’ve got them taking Tucker and most of the other key-position players are gone, a guy like McKay would be a nice addition. He’s only been playing footy for four or five years, he’s been more of a basketball guy so he came into the program late but really improved and gained a lot of confidence out of his performances in the Under-18 championships. He’s a tall, agile forward who can probably go into the ruck because he can jump. He does need to put a body on but he’s a perfect key-position size.

14. Richmond — Rhys Mathieson

Midfielder, 186cm, 82kg, Geelong Falcons/Bell Park

Buckenara says: Mathieson racks up the possessions, he’s a hardworking in-and-under player who makes good decisions with the footy. He’d be a really good pick-up for the Tigers to add some quality to their midfield depth.

15. Adelaide — Riley Bonner

Half-back, 191cm, 85kg, West Adelaide/Goodwood

Buckenara says: A tallish rebounding defender, Bonner is an Adelaide boy with a beautiful left-foot kick and provides a lot of drive off half-back because he loves to get the ball and run. His ball use is very good and similar to the way Grant Birchall distributes the ball. The go-home factor has probably hurt them a bit in the past so the fact he’s from Adelaide adds a bit of weight here.

16. Brisbane Lions — Eric Hipwood

Forward/defender, 199cm, 84kg, Brisbane Lions Academy/Aspley

Buckenara says: Hipwood is interesting. He can play as a key defender or key forward but is still very raw so the Lions will need to be patient with him. He is a good size and when he puts on a body, he will be a big boy and a fantastic addition. He’s a thumping kick.

*I expect the Saints to bid for Brisbane Academy player Eric Hipwood and the Lions to match it by using a combination of draft picks that equal pick 16.

17. St Kilda — Ben McKay

Forward/defender, 199cm, 95kg, Gippsland Power/Warragul

Buckenara says: The twin brother of Harry McKay, Ben does have similar attributes to his brother in his size and shape and he came into the system a bit later this year. At this stage, Ben probably plays a little bit harder than what Harry does and his form at the back end of the year was really good. He would fit well in the St Kilda playing model.

18. Hawthorn — Jade Gresham

Midfielder, 178cm, 77kg, Northern Knights/South Morang

Buckenara says: Given a few of the Hawks midfielders are getting older, Gresham would be a good addition. He was prolific in the TAC Cup and Under-18 championships, has good leg speed, good endurance and uses the ball well. He’s only small in stature but he does win his own ball and has the pace outside, not dissimilar to Billy Hartung who likes to take them on and break the lines. That type of player really goes well with Alastair Clarkson’s game plan.






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19. Brisbane Lions — Ben Keays

Midfielder, 185cm, 83kg, Brisbane Lions Academy/Redland

Buckenara says: A nice mover, Keays is a neat left-footed midfielder who can also play as a rebounding half-back flanker. He is agile and takes them on. He might be a bit too left-sided, so he’ll need to work on using his right foot as well to give him another string to his bow.

*I expect the Suns to bid for Brisbane Academy player Ben Keays and the Lions to match it by using a combination of draft picks that equal pick 19.

20. Gold Coast — Harley Balic

Midfielder/half-forward, 187cm, 80kg, Sandringham Dragons/Parkdale

Buckenara says: A mobile midfielder who can play in a number of positions — half-forward, half-back but can go into the midfield — Balic is a competitor who wins his own footy and likes to take the game on. He has an adequate kick but I’d like to see that improve.

21. North Melbourne — Ryan Clarke

Midfielder, 185cm, 84kg, Eastern Ranges/Knox/Melbourne GS

Buckenara says: Clarke is the sort of player the Kangaroos really need — he has good leg speed, can take players on and is a good kick. With Ryan Bastinac leaving he can fill a void there on the outside but he’s also really competitive. He was probably the form player in the TAC Cup in the last half of the year.

22. Hawthorn — Callum Ah Chee

Half-forward, 182cm, 71kg, South Fremantle/Kelmscott

Buckenara says: A West Australian boy, on talent and class I think Ah Chee is one of the best players in the draft. He didn’t have the best of years or Under-18 carnival but that could be because WA didn’t have a good carnival itself. There is more to him than just being a half-forward flanker — he’s a clever playmaker when up the field so he can go into the midfield and he’s got some tricks. He can stand on heads and take a mark and he’s got the Cyril Rioli-style agility. He just needs to improve his tank because he’s been a player who can dominate for 10 minutes a quarter but then go missing.

23. Carlton — Tom Cole

Half-back, 185cm, 76kg, Sandhurst/Bendigo Pioneers

Buckenara says: A nice mover, Cole can play as rebounding defender, on the wing or as a high half-forward. He’s similar to Sam Docherty. He has pace, is a beautiful left-foot kick and makes good decisions with the ball. He’d be a good fit at the Blues.

24. Western Bulldogs — Clayton Oliver

Midfielder, 187cm, 86kg, Murray Bushrangers/Mooroopna

Buckenara says: There’s talk of Oliver going top 10 but when there are good key-position players early you just don’t pass on them and then I’ve got a number of other players in front of him and who are better fits for certain clubs. Oliver had a really good back end of the year where he really stood out, has a good strong body, is a competitive beast and wins a lot of the football. To me, halfway through the year he would have been a smoky pick but his performances in the second half have pushed him up the order.

Clayton Oliver is a draft bolter.
25. Western Bulldogs — Jesse Glass-McCasker

Defender, 196cm, 95kg, Swan Districts

Buckenara says: I think Glass-McCasker has all the attributes. Similar to what I saw in Ben Stratton back in 2009, he can play on talls and smalls because he’s quick and reads the play very well. He’s a bit player-conscious at the moment but that’s because he’s just a kid. He’s a potential key-position defender.

26. Fremantle — Ryan Burton

Forward, 191cm, 90kg, North Adelaide/PHOS Camden

Buckenara says: The Dockers are crying out for a key forward and Burton is exactly that. Burton could go earlier because before his bad leg injury he was touted as a top-10 pick but I think the doubt sees him drift because that injury was a very serious one. He will need to be managed and patience is key as he gets some confidence back, but there is huge upside. He has good pace, a great pair of hands and is a beautiful kick.

27. West Coast — Josh Dunkley

Midfielder, 189cm, 86kg, Gippsland Power/Sale or James Parsons, midfielder, 189cm, 77kg, Eastern Ranges/Norwood

Buckenara says: If Dunkley doesn’t nominate as a father-son for Sydney, which reports suggest he won’t, he would be exactly the type of player Eagles coach Adam Simpson would be looking for. He’s a super competitor and can fill a role as a midfielder who wins the ball or as a lockdown hard-at-it defender who reads the play very well and will be third-man in all the time. He’s exactly the type of player that would suit West Coast’s style.

If Dunkley nominates as a father-son, James Parsons would be a good get as an elite runner who’s really quick, a good ball user and a reasonable decision-maker. On the big Subiaco ground, a guy like Parsons would fit very well.





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28. Essendon — Daniel Rioli

Small forward, 179cm, 65kg, North Ballarat Rebels/St Marys

Buckenara says: The Bombers won’t let a Rioli slip this time. His combine testing was outstanding — his fitness has always been the query. He’s always been a bit of a later developer but his footy really took off and he showed some great signs this year. Essendon is crying out for that clever small forward and he’s just that.

29. Essendon — David Cunningham

Midfielder, 183cm, 85kg, Oakleigh Chargers/Boroondara Hawks/Melbourne GS

Buckenara says: Leg speed is an issue for Essendon so Cunningham can add something there. He’s a powerful athlete, very quick, carries the ball and is elusive. His leg speed can complement Travis Colyer’s game.

30. GWS Giants — Matthew Flynn

Ruckman, 200cm, 99kg, GWS Giants Academy/Narrandera

Buckenara says: The best ruckman in the draft. Initially he looked a bit overweight but he’s actually very mobile and gets around the ground well. He reads the play well, is a lovely kick and I’d liken him to how Todd Goldstein played at the same age.

*I expect the Kangaroos to nominate GWS Academy player Matthew Flynn and the Giants to match it by using a combination of draft picks that equal pick 30.

31. North Melbourne — Ben Crocker

Half-back, 185cm, 81kg, Oakleigh Chargers/Kew Comets

Buckenara says: The Kangaroos will go for best available who suits their needs and Crocker is that in that he has good leg speed, takes them on, carries the ball and has a good kick although it can be a bit inconsistent. But that might be a bit of a coaching thing in his decision-making, which could improve that element because he has a good technique.

32. Collingwood — Tom Doedee

Half-back, 187cm, 80kg, Geelong Falcons/St Joseph’s

Buckenara says: A very good reader of the play, Doedee is a bit like Andrew Mackie and also has a bit of Ben Stratton about him because he’s got the long arms and is agile so he can play tall and small. He’s got pace, agility and he reads the ball in flight very well so he can be a third-man up type.

33. North Melbourne — Oleg Markov

Midfielder/forward, 188cm, 73kg, North Adelaide/Gepps Cross

Buckenara says: Markov is one of my smokies for this draft but has big upside. His parents have an athletic background so Markov naturally is a good athlete and I thought he was outstanding in the Under-18 Championships for South Australia. He can jump, has good pace and the thing that got me is the improvement in his kicking from 2014 to 2015. He obviously worked really hard on it. He can play high half-forward or can go into the midfield.

Oleg Markov with his dad — world champion pole vaulter Dmitri Markov.
34. Gold Coast — Tim Sullivan

Ruckman, 199cm, 90kg, Glenelg/Port MacDonell

Buckenara says: North Melbourne might also look at Sullivan because both teams need a ruckman. He’ll be a developer who they’ll need to put some time into and work on his kicking — it’s not bad but not great, either. He’s a nice athletic boy and this year was a learning year because it was the first time he was really exposed to a program. He’s not your typical 200cm plus ruckman — he has a great leap, is very mobile and can take a mark.

35. Western Bulldogs — Josh Schoenfeld

Midfielder, 187cm, 75kg, Peel Thunder/Rockingham

Buckenara says: An elite runner who tested very well at the combine, Schoenfeld broke the 3km time-trial record and has really improved his skills year on year and his ability to win his own footy — he was a bit outside in previous year. He has elite endurance, he’s a really hard runner and to have him on a wing or half-back flank, could be really damaging. In time he could be very similar to Isaac Smith.

BUCKY’S SMOKEYS

Clint Hinchcliffe — a midfielder from Perth who moves a bit like Sam Mitchell

Maris Olekalns — South Australian won the 20m sprint at the draft combine in 2.88 sec

Hisham Kerbaetieh — mid/forward from the Calder Cannons who booted 46 goals in the past two TAC Cup seasons

 

[SizeMatters]

no way clayton oliver lands at that pick.

 

[braddsey]

Hawthorn list builder Gary Buckenara weighs in with his mock draft...

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...d/news-story/8b57a8034aeac9a47d9db82d0dd05cfe

Hippy @ 16
Keays @ 19

Yep. We'd take that

Callum Twomey's mock draft that had them at 13 & 14. Are we generally over-rating them, or are the sliding a bit because by the time you have academy bids for Mills, Kennedy & Hopper, people start to get a bit lethargic and discount them - knowing they're going to Brisbane anyway?

 

[acuguy]

Don't worry about what Bucky says, Hipwood and Keays are both elite talents. I definitely would be grabbing William and Chol. Really interested in Quigley's dismissal of Chol. Can't really understand where that comes from. As a previous poster said, Chol is a ruckman, he is a 3-5 year project player, I reckon we would see him next year, the amount of excitement he will cause in the NEAFL when he is sitting on heads etc will demand senior selection.

I also see the drafting of Chol and William as important to the development of AFL in QLD with our Sudanese community. The amount of athletic talent out there in this community is enormous. The connection many of the Sudanese kids have with a ball (be it soccer or afl ) is innate and very similar to the indigenous people of this great land.

 

[dlanod]

no way clayton oliver lands at that pick.

Oliver smells strongly like the BF pump-up of the year. He's shot up from nowhere to BF pundits wanting to take him in the top 5. I'm not sure where the likes of Twomey or Quayle have ranked him by comparison but based purely off previous years' experiences, I think he's going to be less rated by the actual drafters than here on BF where the echo chamber kept him heading up and up and up.

 

[M Malice]

I also see the drafting of Chol and William as important to the development of AFL in QLD with our Sudanese community. The amount of athletic talent out there in this community is enormous. The connection many of the Sudanese kids have with a ball (be it soccer or afl ) is innate and very similar to the indigenous people of this great land.

strongly agree. william and chol have enough potential to be drafted by us any way, rookie at the least and the sudanese connection is just a a great bonus.

 

[rusty08]

Geez Collins is a good size for a man let alone a bloody kid!

 

[Quigley]

Don't worry about what Bucky says, Hipwood and Keays are both elite talents. I definitely would be grabbing William and Chol. Really interested in Quigley's dismissal of Chol. Can't really understand where that comes from. As a previous poster said, Chol is a ruckman, he is a 3-5 year project player, I reckon we would see him next year, the amount of excitement he will cause in the NEAFL when he is sitting on heads etc will demand senior selection.

I also see the drafting of Chol and William as important to the development of AFL in QLD with our Sudanese community. The amount of athletic talent out there in this community is enormous. The connection many of the Sudanese kids have with a ball (be it soccer or afl ) is innate and very similar to the indigenous people of this great land.

Mabior Chol

Ht – 198 Wt – 81


Chol was a player I had high hopes for this year but, notwithstanding a good game in the Allies v AFL Academy, I have been underwhelmed and I am consigning to the Archie Smith category of players who I expect to be picked up based on physical skills but who I do not expect to make it. Unlike Smith, Chol at least flashes some real skill but for me he just goes missing too much and even when the things he does look good they do not necessarily have the result you would desire.


He does look good when he is kicking the ball. When he does manage to get the ball and has a bit of time and space (it does not happen very often) he has a lovely easy kicking action that looks a million bucks. Unfortunately his lovely kicking action only allows him to hit the target about 50% of the time. Out on the ground that does not seem to bother him. I might be being unfair to him but from the sidelines he seems to have a very laissez faire attitude where style matters more than substance. With all that said he does have a big leg on him and he is capable of picking out targets he just needs to do it more often.


Like most of the tall Sudanese kids Chol is very thin at the moment and looks like he will struggle to put on weight. I thought the same about Aliir Aliir and he is now an absolute unit. There is no reason to assume that Chol will not be the same and I am not concerned about him developing bulk. He certainly does need to as he is very light and is manhandled very easily around the ground. This happens to such an extent that I would consider him a fairly poor around the ground ruck at the moment. As he develops physically though this is might change. In the centre bounces he can use his jump but around the ground he cannot hold position and he would be well down on guys I would want rucking for me in those situations.


Chol was one of the stars of the Combine. He was right up there in the top few in all the jumps and combined with his height and long arms (second longest measured) he is capable of reaching heights very few, even at AFL level can reach. He is a bit shorter than is ideal for a number 1 ruck (he came in a tick under 198cm) but his athleticism does compensate for the slight height deficiency. In game situations he is capable of timing his jump to take advantage of this great reach. If he gets a clean run at the centre bounce or a mark he is often well above his opponent even those taller than he is. When he gets clean hands on the ball he controls his taps well but I would not say he is elite in this area. In marking situations he is fairly easily body checked and when unbalanced in the air he is not a particularly good mark. He does not adjust in the air well. If he gets a clean run at a mark, he is a player you can see marking it a couple of seconds ahead of it happening it. In those situations he looks great but he does not do it very often.


There will also be a few plays each game when Chol will get the ball from a contest and weave through traffic and come out the other side. When he does so he looks like a million bucks. He is not the cleanest in the contest though and was very near the bottom of the clean hands test at the Combine. His hands are a factor which inhibits his ability to do these great things more often. When he gets the ball he has really good speed especially when he gets up and moving. He tested pretty well in the 20m at the Combine (just over 3 seconds) but over the longer repeat sprint he excelled finishing third (from memory).


With the things he can do, Chol has a very high ceiling as a player and higher than virtually any other ruck in this draft. Consistency of effort and ability to involve himself in games are however major issues for Chol that I see holding him back. Attitude is one factor but physically his tank is also quite poor and this could be a factor in him not being able to repeat his highlight reel plays very often.


Chol is a Lions academy player and they will have first crack at him if they want to match a bid for him. There have a few off field whispers and if the Lions want to do the best for him it might be best to let him go to a team in another state and allow him to make a clean start free of his current friendship group.

 

[Panthera]

Don't worry about what Bucky says, Hipwood and Keays are both elite talents. I definitely would be grabbing William and Chol. Really interested in Quigley's dismissal of Chol. Can't really understand where that comes from. As a previous poster said, Chol is a ruckman, he is a 3-5 year project player, I reckon we would see him next year, the amount of excitement he will cause in the NEAFL when he is sitting on heads etc will demand senior selection.

I also see the drafting of Chol and William as important to the development of AFL in QLD with our Sudanese community. The amount of athletic talent out there in this community is enormous. The connection many of the Sudanese kids have with a ball (be it soccer or afl ) is innate and very similar to the indigenous people of this great land.

Buckenara's mock draft is one that I'd be taking a lot of notice of...he did assist in building the Hawks' dynasty

Picks in the teens often end up sensational players, so he's not saying they wont be elite.

Recent examples 2014 - 2010:

Duggan Ellis Lever Heeney
Cripps McCarthy Sheed Dunstan
Menzel Grundy Lonergan Thurlow
Greene Ellis Adams Smith
Lynch Smedts Jacobs Atley

 

[JasRulz63]

Oliver smells strongly like the BF pump-up of the year. He's shot up from nowhere to BF pundits wanting to take him in the top 5. I'm not sure where the likes of Twomey or Quayle have ranked him by comparison but based purely off previous years' experiences, I think he's going to be less rated by the actual drafters than here on BF where the echo chamber kept him heading up and up and up.

Quayle reckons Melbourne are looking at Oliver, Curnow or Weiderman at pick 3.

 

[KissKiss]

Quayle reckons Melbourne are looking at Oliver, Curnow or Weiderman at pick 3.

Curnow getting arrested and refusing a breath test last night might cause him to slide a bit now

 

[jackess]

Curnow getting arrested and refusing a breath test last night might cause him to slide a bit now

Should fit in at Hawthorn.

 

[Milux]

Should fit in at Hawthorn.

Darn beat me to it. Future captain at the hawks.