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2016 Draft discussion

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jason pm said:
interesting spot, a year at that age would make a difference, a little bit keener on Bolton and Venables now.
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Bolton for me. I probably have a few potential sliders I'd prefer before him, but I wouldn't be disappointed with him at 16. Would be thrilled at 21, 22.

Definitely intriguing for me. I considered maybe 24 players as potential 'first round prospects'. Birthdays being fairly even, you'd expect ~4 in a 2 month period. 3 in Nov/Dec is a bit low. EIGHT in Jan/Feb is huge!
 
spotthedog1 said:
Something I always find interesting around draft time is dates of birth. At that age and development level, the difference between someone born in January and someone born in December is huge.

The notable older and younger players, for us, are:

Older Players
Ben Ainsworth - born Feb 10, 1998
Hugh McCluggage - born March 3, 1998
Tim Taranto - born January 28, 1998
Sam Petrevski-Seton - born February 19, 1998

Jarrod Berry - born February 5, 1998
Josh Rotham - born February 25, 1998
Sam Powell-Pepper - born January 8, 1998

Younger Players
Daniel Venables - November 19, 1998
Shai Bolton - December 8, 1998

The count here speaks volumes to me. All in all, I count it as 8 first round prospects born in Jan-Feb, 3 first round prospects born Nov-Dec (the others were: older - Bowes, Setterfield. younger - Perryman). That's a huge variance, and for me, says that it's harder for younger guys at that age, and therefore guys like Venables and Bolton should be considered slightly higher than an equivalent player born earlier in the year, because they're potentially less matured on draft day, and therefore have more growth potential.

Effectively, if you want to compare someone like Powell-Pepper to someone like Bolton, it's possibly more fair to consider how Powell-Pepper was last year, not this year.
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Many studies and stats on this topic in regards to NBA drafting. Basic summary is, if you have a kid who has an end of year birth date, performing up there with the top kids who have early year birthdates, grab the the younger kid as he usually has a higher ceiling, especially if he doesn't yet have the mature body of the older kids.

There's more to it than such a simplistic explanation, but if Venables and Bolton are there at 21 and 22 we should seriously consider them, as realistically they should likely be rated 10 spots higher.
 
blueiris said:
It goes back to trade week when Schwab said he was confident that McLuggage would be available at 3 obviously he knows who GWS are taking and all signs point to Ben hopefully in a few years he still wants to play for us and asks for a trade
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Reports late today in melbourne that Gws are going to lose all drafts picks due to drug issue .If true game changer.
 

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Eons said:
The reason they will keep pick 2 is because they received it from trading. Their first pick based on where they finished is 15th.
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Why should we protect cheating? The message should be clear and unambiguous. If you try and protect drug cheaters , you will be held accountable.They should lose all 1st round picks this year and after Essendon ,after this ,if the message still is not clear enough ,then the next club who thinks they are above the law should be banned from the draft for two years and officials involved, banned for life.
 
lionsbest said:
Why should we protect cheating? The message should be clear and unambiguous. If you try and protect drug cheaters , you will be held accountable.They should lose all 1st round picks this year and after Essendon ,after this ,if the message still is not clear enough ,then the next club who thinks they are above the law should be banned from the draft for two years and officials involved, banned for life.
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Talk to the AFL mate.
 
Back on topic a bit more, jeez it is nice going in to this draft knowing we will get 1 of Ainsworth or McCluggage. I'm far from a draft expert but sort of feels like we can't lose with one of those 2.

Just hope we can nab a couple of SPP, Witherden, Simpkin, Berry, Cox with our later picks.
 

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a mayes ing said:
If GWS lose their pick 15, then our pick 16 goes to 15 and our 21,22 go to 20,2 respectively. Just that little bit easier to get Berry Simpkin or Witherden etc.
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Doesn't really effect those picks, GWS would have almost certainly used that pick with matching a bid for Setterfield. They will now need to match with multiple lower picks, that should push our lower picks (76/78) up to having value for matching Allison/Wason
 
Leuy LongerCombo said:
Doesn't really effect those picks, GWS would have almost certainly used that pick with matching a bid for Setterfield. They will now need to match with multiple lower picks, that should push our lower picks (76/78) up to having value for matching Allison/Wason
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Especially if they lose pick 37 as well. We could benefit quite considerably in terms of our matching.
 
Will also mean GWS have to think long and hard how many academy kids they will match this draft and whether they will go in to deficit for next draft.

Especially as their crop of academy kids for 2017 is much more highly rated than this years crop.
 
briztoon said:
Many studies and stats on this topic in regards to NBA drafting. Basic summary is, if you have a kid who has an end of year birth date, performing up there with the top kids who have early year birthdates, grab the the younger kid as he usually has a higher ceiling, especially if he doesn't yet have the mature body of the older kids.

There's more to it than such a simplistic explanation, but if Venables and Bolton are there at 21 and 22 we should seriously consider them, as realistically they should likely be rated 10 spots higher.
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Both more and less important in the NBA. Draft age in the NBA ranges from 19-21 (mostly). Mostly 19 year olds, particularly in the lottery where the player is just biding time at college to get drafted. Even at 19 year olds, the recruiters would surely factor in when in the year they were born. And I think it's even more important in the AFL - dealing with 17 and 18 year olds. It makes sense that an extra few months means a decent bit of development where they're just on the brink of reaching professional capabilities. 10 spots seems like a lot though - some of them are almost a year older, but they'll only be a couple of months ahead of some - I would've thought it'd push them 2 or 3 spots for picks in the teens. Enough to push them ahead of someone of the same talent but born earlier.
 

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briztoon said:
Many studies and stats on this topic in regards to NBA drafting. Basic summary is, if you have a kid who has an end of year birth date, performing up there with the top kids who have early year birthdates, grab the the younger kid as he usually has a higher ceiling, especially if he doesn't yet have the mature body of the older kids.

There's more to it than such a simplistic explanation, but if Venables and Bolton are there at 21 and 22 we should seriously consider them, as realistically they should likely be rated 10 spots higher.
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Bontempelli is probably the best recent example, he's draft year performances were good without being spectacular. But he was always going to be taken based on what he would become. IIRC, Bont was born in late November.
 
Keyes, close, hipwood, mcstay, schache, andrews.. all great prospects and talants, love them all, probley all future leadership group material.. but (at this stage) all have a 'nice guy, school boy' vibe about them (not trying to offend just easiest description, nor am i saying they are soft, just their style / feel in general).. ainsworth looks like he has a bit of cocky / mongrel about him, ala Gardiner, we lack this sort of player badly, not only is he a great talent but I can see him getting right up in the oppositions face from day 1.. i want.
 
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I've heard Isaac Cumming is on our radar. Skilful and quick with super clean hands. He has a beautiful kicking technique and his disposal is very accurate. I wonder if GWS would match a bid for him if they lose picks 15 and 37 with them having to match bids on Setterfield and Perryman.
 
lionshine said:
I've heard Isaac Cumming is on our radar. Skilful and quick with super clean hands. He has a beautiful kicking technique and his disposal is very accurate. I wonder if GWS would match a bid for him if they lose picks 15 and 37 with them having to match bids on Setterfield and Perryman.
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just had a look at his profile, sounds a likely type. the draft machine has his range as 20-50, bishop does not have him rated in his top 80 power rankings and chris25 doesn't mention him in his top 50 power rankings.

you would think he would be a late bid by us (certainly not with one of our first 4 picks), that being the case GWS would probably need very little if any points to match.
 

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