Game Day 2017 National Draft

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

Is that the CHF from SA? If so, i liked what i saw of him. Good hands and great on the lead. Only saw the one game but he was the one that caught my attention. Wheres he tipped to go in the draft? Not in top 20 according to AFL phantom draft, although its very early still.
Brander and Lukosius would be hopefully solving our key position stocks in one hit ala Reid and Brown.
May have to get a pick in the early 20's to guarantee it

He is 2018

 

[ksardog]

He is 2018

Makes his game even more impressive. Oh well, with Bucks coaching, we may in the box seat for him in 2018

 

[Soups]

I don't think we should talk about trading into the top 3 next year. It could well happen that we are there.

Jokes aside, Lukosius is one of the best talents coming through that I have seen in a very long time. King and Rankine are hot on his heels. Next years top 5 will be something special.

 

[Hardas]

I don't think we should talk about trading into the top 3 next year. It could well happen that we are there.

Jokes aside, Lukosius is one of the best talents coming through that I have seen in a very long time. King and Rankine are hot on his heels. Next years top 5 will be something special.

Sounds like future trading might drop off a bit this time round then.

 

[Soups]

Sounds like future trading might drop off a bit this time round then.

Clubs who trade next years first rounders will be shooting themsleves. I don't think any of them will do it though.

 

[Knightmare]

I don't think we should talk about trading into the top 3 next year. It could well happen that we are there.

Jokes aside, Lukosius is one of the best talents coming through that I have seen in a very long time. King and Rankine are hot on his heels. Next years top 5 will be something special.

There are a few ways we could approach things.

We can either look at the competition as - there is no great team. League-wide. Things are pretty even and it only takes a few pieces added to take a team over the top and become a premiership contender.

Conversely, our situation could be looked at from a perspective of. We're no where near winning a premiership. Why not trade into the top end of next years draft? Understanding that the 2018 draft has some stars up the top end.
eg. Trade Sidebottom to Brisbane for their 2018 1st round pick.
Trade Treloar to North Melbourne for their 2018 1st round pick.
It would be assumed, losing Sidebottom and Adams that a lower finish would eventuate and Collingwood would have three high draft selections for 2018 with Brisbane and North Melbourne even with notable list additions unlikely to rise all that much. Two of those, you'd be taking the chance on would be top 3 choices to ensure at least one if not both of Lukosius and King can be added. That could be a pretty quick way to build a key position core, particularly if a Clavarino and/or Petty can be added this offseason around the third round or if we trade into the second round.

For the time being, I'm in the former camp as from a player morale standpoint, getting worse and losing games doesn't make teams better and only creates a culture of losing - adversely effecting player development. Similarly with trading away established players, you don't have the personnel to help the young develop the same as you see on veteran teams that have won. But understanding how good those top three are next year. And the rest of the draft early days looks at least promising. It is a debate that can reasonably be had and should be discussed.

 

[soreplums]

Clubs who trade next years first rounders will be shooting themsleves. I don't think any of them will do it though.

So I guess Brisbane or GC won't bite if we trade 2017 pick 6 plus 2018 2nd rounder for 2018 first rounder?

 

[Snoop Dog]

There are a few ways we could approach things.

We can either look at the competition as - there is no great team. League-wide. Things are pretty even and it only takes a few pieces added to take a team over the top and become a premiership contender.

Conversely, our situation could be looked at from a perspective of. We're no where near winning a premiership. Why not trade into the top end of next years draft? Understanding that the 2018 draft has some stars up the top end.
eg. Trade Sidebottom to Brisbane for their 2018 1st round pick.
Trade Treloar to North Melbourne for their 2018 1st round pick.
It would be assumed, losing Sidebottom and Adams that a lower finish would eventuate and Collingwood would have three high draft selections for 2018 with Brisbane and North Melbourne even with notable list additions unlikely to rise all that much. Two of those, you'd be taking the chance on would be top 3 choices to ensure at least one if not both of Lukosius and King can be added. That could be a pretty quick way to build a key position core, particularly if a Clavarino and/or Petty can be added this offseason around the third round or if we trade into the second round.

For the time being, I'm in the former camp as from a player morale standpoint, getting worse and losing games doesn't make teams better and only creates a culture of losing - adversely effecting player development. Similarly with trading away established players, you don't have the personnel to help the young develop the same as you see on veteran teams that have won. But understanding how good those top three are next year. And the rest of the draft early days looks at least promising. It is a debate that can reasonably be had and should be discussed.

Yeah good post and agree.

I don't think option 2 would happen anyway as club clearly wouldn't trade Treloar and Sidebottom has been massive for the coach in the 2nd half. Also given the players were really supportive of him and helped him keep the job I just can't see him tinkering with that. His message and the clubs message was I think more about filling in some gaps in the list. My mail is that those gaps are 'top end' talent and the spine.

I think its more likely the club will aim up at Lever and possibly Casboult (moreso if Cox goes) and then aim to get into the draft at around that 25-40 range with a couple / few picks. They would argue they have solved for the high end talent and that by moving into that draft range they can work on the spine as their a number of players in that range of the draft that could be taken there.

A scenario I think that could play out would be;

Lever for Pick 6 and something (not sure what). Could also be Scharenberg and something if he puts his hand up but hopeful it won't be the case.

Cox goes to Brisbane and in return there is a pick between 30-40.

Sign Casboult as a key forward. At 27 he is in a great place.

That allows you to play Lever in a preferred intercept / 3rd tall role with Reid, Howe, Goldsack, Scharenberg, Langdon and some speed with Varcoe and Crisp possibly.

Up forward you would have Moore and Casboult.

You would also be left with pick 36 which we have currently and pick 35 (Cox). I would then be aiming to trade up some of these selections plus the one around mid 50's and using some of the fringe types we have to do so.

Kids like Petty, Clarivino, Allen, Wooller, De Koning and possibly Taylor all options for me in that range as well as a few others. I am pretty sure Petty will be in that range and I rate him pretty highly.

To be fair still forming my view as think lots of ways to go. Very happy to keep Cox but if you could do Cox and pick 30 for Casboult I would do it (I think)

 

[loki04]

I don't think we should talk about trading into the top 3 next year. It could well happen that we are there.

Jokes aside, Lukosius is one of the best talents coming through that I have seen in a very long time. King and Rankine are hot on his heels. Next years top 5 will be something special.

Don't forget Ian Hill talk about xfactor match winners...He made Vic Country players look stupid at times

 

[Soups]

Don't forget Ian Hill talk about xfactor match winners...He made Vic Country players look stupid at times

Yeah he's definitely in the mix for the top 5.

 

[left at home]

Keep hearing balta name, is he a back key post, and if so how good is he

 

[Apex36]

Lukosius is playing special footy. He runs like Riewoldt (the only defence is abandoning him when he passes half way up the field or he'll kill you when he pushes forward) and has as similar a game that is as well rounded as you'll find.

Max King as that i50 target is unstoppable. His reach is too high that you can't spoil him. Finds separation i50. He's another I'd flat out love to have.



Lynch may be a situation of - you approach GC and say we'll offer him eg. $1.5m per year over the next 8 seasons if you don't trade him this season. The result is either they trade him or keep him and lose him unless they really spend up big to match. He's one though you just have to enquire into the availability of and take a shot at.

Getting into the top three next year is every bit as hard as it sounds. It likely means dealing with North Melbourne or maybe Brisbane this offseason and offering a package of some kind. That might mean a 1st rounder, De Goey and Josh Smith as an example trade.
The other option, and it's the safer way but would cost more as you actually know the pick you're trading for, is waiting until next offseason and trading for it. That might be something more like Elliott, a first round pick and Langdon, again just to think about what might be asked for as a rough early guesstimate.

As for Brander. I'm open to him, but not sold. Watching him on the weekend, he dropped 2-3 marks he should have taken - with low to no pressure. That's not every week stuff from Brander, but even sometimes it's not ideal. He's athletic enough, good size, clean at ground level and a pretty good kick. Good fwd/back without being clearly great in either. The hope if we picked him would be something like Ben Reid to give a feel for his upside, and like with Reid, he'll need his 3-4 years to develop to become adequately consistent.

What's your thoughts on Fogarty? Do you think his knee injury that he played through for most of the year had a significant impact on his performances? And if fully fit do you think he has a higher ceiling than Brander (assuming both play forward, obviously Fogarty being more a Stringer type).

 

[loki04]

Yeah he's definitely in the mix for the top 5.

IMO outside fixing our spine his type is exactly what we lack smooth, quick, skilled, agile cat like reflexes, great decision making and similar ball use to Daniel Wells.

If we can trade into the first round next year using our pick 6 this year I say do it and double up next year taking 1 KPP and a Hill/Rankine type..

 

[Knightmare]

Keep hearing balta name, is he a back key post, and if so how good is he

6 is probably too early for Balta. If we got a pick in the teens, that is probably more what you'd need to get him.

Balta is a genuine 18 position player. Freak athlete. Long kick. Clean at ground level. He can be inconsistent, doesn't have a clear best position (is he a key forward? key defender? relieving ruckman? midfielder? inside? outside?) and also lacks footy smarts.

Balta is something like a better version of Jon Marsh to give a feel for who he is and give a rough feel for what his game looks something like.

What's your thoughts on Fogarty? Do you think his knee injury that he played through for most of the year had a significant impact on his performances? And if fully fit do you think he has a higher ceiling than Brander (assuming both play forward, obviously Fogarty being more a Stringer type).

Fogarty's U18 championships were terrible, but then again he was playing hurt. Had a strong 2016 and looked solid early season in the SANFL. I'm predicting he goes somewhere around pick 6. He's very much someone I expect will be in the conversation for our pick.

The question of who has a higher ceiling is an interesting one between Fogarty and Brander. They're different types but their ceilings I view as relatively similar. Neither are certainties to make it and really could go either way.

I have to sit on the fence for now and consider myself undecided. I don't love either, as much as they both need strong consideration at pick 6 if there.

Fogarty, like with Brander I'm not sure where I most want to see him play. Should he develop into a ball winning midfielder? Is he like Stringer, an undersized key forward? If he a combo mid/fwd? I plan to review several of his older games in the leadup to the draft and make a firmer decision then.

 

[Quicky]

You can already forcast that we're kind of boned this off-season. We desperately need a ready made key forward but there are really no likely targets this off-season unless we pull something out of a hat. Names like Casboult and Trengove won't get us anywhere so why bother? We're better off leaving Reid forward and fast tracking McLarty.

I reckon we'll focus on shoring up our current list by trying to retain guys like Cox and then hitting the draft. We may just need to be patient this year and look at getting some players to develop. We'd be having a serious crack at Lynch next year.

 

[Knightmare]

Down back as a stop gap, Lachie Hansen is one I'd target without hesitation - now that he has been delisted.

He's one I'd simply slot into my best 22.

87 marks from 13 games is outstanding. Equating to 147 marks per 22 games. Getting that from a 197cm key defender is seriously good.

He's someone who could allow Reid to remain forward and allow Collingwood to continue finding those higher level key forwards through the draft as they arise.

 

[swoop42]

6 is probably too early for Balta. If we got a pick in the teens, that is probably more what you'd need to get him.

Balta is a genuine 18 position player. Freak athlete. Long kick. Clean at ground level. He can be inconsistent, doesn't have a clear best position (is he a key forward? key defender? relieving ruckman? midfielder? inside? outside?) and also lacks footy smarts.

Balta is something like a better version of Jon Marsh to give a feel for who he is and give a rough feel for what his game looks something like.



Fogarty's U18 championships were terrible, but then again he was playing hurt. Had a strong 2016 and looked solid early season in the SANFL. I'm predicting he goes somewhere around pick 6. He's very much someone I expect will be in the conversation for our pick.

The question of who has a higher ceiling is an interesting one between Fogarty and Brander. They're different types but their ceilings I view as relatively similar. Neither are certainties to make it and really could go either way.

I have to sit on the fence for now and consider myself undecided. I don't love either, as much as they both need strong consideration at pick 6 if there.

Fogarty, like with Brander I'm not sure where I most want to see him play. Should he develop into a ball winning midfielder? Is he like Stringer, an undersized key forward? If he a combo mid/fwd? I plan to review several of his older games in the leadup to the draft and make a firmer decision then.

If it was possible would you be willing to exchange pick 6 (potentially Cox involved) for two later picks in the teens that Brisbane or Richmond currently hold?

Balta possibly could be still there at the first pick and a player I know you rate in Callum Coleman-Jones at the other.

If we could walk away with a couple of young key talls with decent potential in the one draft that would be an excellent result and probably preferable if the gap between them and say a Brander isn't wide.

 

[swoop42]

Down back as a stop gap, Lachie Hansen is one I'd target without hesitation - now that he has been delisted.

He's one I'd simply slot into my best 22.

87 marks from 13 games is outstanding. Equating to 147 marks per 22 games. Getting that from a 197cm key defender is seriously good.

He's someone who could allow Reid to remain forward and allow Collingwood to continue finding those higher level key forwards through the draft as they arise.

Played his best football in the latter stages of his career also so I think at worse he'd be excellent depth in the area of key defence and might well find a place in our best 22.

 

[Knightmare]

If it was possible would you be willing to exchange pick 6 (potentially Cox involved) for two later picks in the teens that Brisbane or Richmond currently hold?

Balta possibly could be still there at the first pick and a player I know you rate in Callum Coleman-Jones at the other.

If we could walk away with a couple of young key talls with decent potential in the one draft that would be an excellent result and probably preferable if the gap between them and say a Brander isn't wide.

Would be open to something along those lines, though I think from a value standpoint we could be asking for a slightly better return.

Played his best football in the latter stages of his career also so I think at worse he'd be excellent depth in the area of key defence and might well find a place in our best 22.

I've liked Hansen's game for a while now, and like you, I've also probably the past 4-5 years felt more comfortable with his game than I did earlier in his career.

The development and clean bill of health of Robbie Tarrant is really what has killed off Hansen's career in recent years as a higher production and more complete key defender. With Scott Thompson also a very good key defender.

 

[neilk]

How do you trade into next years top 3 though? That's something we may well have little control over. Ditto Lynch actually.

What are your thoughts on Brander?

We could finish 16th-18th

 

[neilk]

So I guess Brisbane or GC won't bite if we trade 2017 pick 6 plus 2018 2nd rounder for 2018 first rounder?

Are you now allowed to trade picks for a pick?

 

[Quicky]

We could finish 16th-18th

Damn logic!

 

[Alexander323bc]

Sounds to me like Bucks was on his way out but part of the 2 year deal was to make sure we pick up a top 3 pick in 2018?!

 

[jc37]

Yeah good post and agree.

I don't think option 2 would happen anyway as club clearly wouldn't trade Treloar and Sidebottom has been massive for the coach in the 2nd half. Also given the players were really supportive of him and helped him keep the job I just can't see him tinkering with that. His message and the clubs message was I think more about filling in some gaps in the list. My mail is that those gaps are 'top end' talent and the spine.

I think its more likely the club will aim up at Lever and possibly Casboult (moreso if Cox goes) and then aim to get into the draft at around that 25-40 range with a couple / few picks. They would argue they have solved for the high end talent and that by moving into that draft range they can work on the spine as their a number of players in that range of the draft that could be taken there.

A scenario I think that could play out would be;

Lever for Pick 6 and something (not sure what). Could also be Scharenberg and something if he puts his hand up but hopeful it won't be the case.

Cox goes to Brisbane and in return there is a pick between 30-40.

Sign Casboult as a key forward. At 27 he is in a great place.

That allows you to play Lever in a preferred intercept / 3rd tall role with Reid, Howe, Goldsack, Scharenberg, Langdon and some speed with Varcoe and Crisp possibly.

Up forward you would have Moore and Casboult.

You would also be left with pick 36 which we have currently and pick 35 (Cox). I would then be aiming to trade up some of these selections plus the one around mid 50's and using some of the fringe types we have to do so.

Kids like Petty, Clarivino, Allen, Wooller, De Koning and possibly Taylor all options for me in that range as well as a few others. I am pretty sure Petty will be in that range and I rate him pretty highly.

To be fair still forming my view as think lots of ways to go. Very happy to keep Cox but if you could do Cox and pick 30 for Casboult I would do it (I think)

Cox is worth pick 18 and Lions dont lose pick 18 as they have Ballenden they can recruit. Give them pick 36 which will give them the points to recruit Ballenden in the 1st rd

 

[Kappa]

Down back as a stop gap, Lachie Hansen is one I'd target without hesitation - now that he has been delisted.

He's one I'd simply slot into my best 22.

87 marks from 13 games is outstanding. Equating to 147 marks per 22 games. Getting that from a 197cm key defender is seriously good.

He's someone who could allow Reid to remain forward and allow Collingwood to continue finding those higher level key forwards through the draft as they arise.

Slow as Jarryd Witts, with injury issues, terrible disposal by hand and foot... couldn't get a game in a bottom 4 team... Jordan Russell/Tony Armstrong edition