List Mgmt. 2017 Trade/Draft/FA SuperMegaUltra Thread - Post Trade-Period Edition

[bUCKET__]

The cheapest goals let you buy them goon and aren't looking for a second date

 

[kane249]

It's conceivable that we have 4 (maybe 5) debutants in Round 1 next year - Venables, Watson, Ah Chee, Ryan/Rioli, and possibly Brayshaw. Add Nic Nat back on top of that and boy will our team have a completely different look and feel to it.

Watson still has a few question marks on his decision making and disposal, not sure hes pushing for a debut in round 1 personally.

 

[Eagle Wrath]

Our new recruits were given their jumper numbers, if anyone is interested.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-30/eagles-honour-retiree-as-numbers-allocated

Liam Ryan given number 1.

 

[Biggie]

Watson still has a few question marks on his decision making and disposal, not sure hes pushing for a debut in round 1 personally.

I agree.

 

[JackieMoon33]

So given the LeCras pot shots on the last page, I wondered what is a "cheap goal"? I suppose that's an interesting question.

So I had a look at LeCras goalkicking stats for the year, and what I found was

Goals in losses: 12 in 8, 1.5/game
Goals in wins: 20 in 11, 1.82/game

Goals against the bottom 10: 15 in 10, 1.5/game
Goals against the top 8: 17 in 9, 1.89/game

Goals at home: 16 in 9, 1.78/game
Goals away: 16 in 10, 1.6/game

So a somewhat surprising consistency perhaps with his performances in different conditions, most noticeably he performed better against the top sides than the bottom sides on average.

And then I thought that even those goals in wins or against good teams probably came when the match was over, or no longer winnable. Junk time essentially. So I went through AFL tables to find at what stage he kicked his goals, and what the match situation was at the time he kicked them.

Quarter by quarter
1st 8 goals
2nd 10 goals
3rd 9 goals
4th 5 goals

Actually not many goals kicked late in games, it was a rarity for him this season. He did his best work in the middle quarters.

By match situation
Draw 2 goals
Behind 10 goals
Leading 20 goals

So we get to see here that he kicked most of his goals with the team in front. So maybe he was a bit of a seagull. But it really depends how far in front, and at what time, doesn't it? It's hard to say that kicking a last quarter goal when you're leading by 3 points is downhill skiing. So I ordered the goals by our current margin at the time, with the quarter listed first. Negatives indicate a time when we are behind.

3rd 44
2nd 43
3rd 41
4th 36
2nd 28
3rd 23
3rd 22
3rd 21
3rd 18
3rd 12
2nd 9
4th 8
3rd 6
1st 6
2nd 5
1st 5
2nd 4
2nd 4
2nd 4
2nd 3
1st 0
1st 0
4th -6
1st -6
3rd -7
2nd -9
1st -10
1st -16
1st -16
4th -17
2nd -19
4th -73

What struck me most about this is how often he kicked goals when the scores were close. Fully half (16) of his 32 goals came with the margin at less than 10 points. That's pretty remarkable.

So even at the harshest possible mark you'd have to say more than half of his goals were kicked with the game "there to be won". Even his last quarter goals, only one came with us winning by more than 10 points. If you say the game is "there to be won" with the margin under four goals, over 80% of his goals were kicked in that situation.

While it might seem that way when watching, I don't see in here the indication that he was quite the downhill skier whipping boy his reputation would suggest. He didn't kick a large percentage of his goals only at home, or against poor teams, or in wins, or late in games, or with a big margin.

As for running to the back of packs and kicking goals from the square... I haven't looked at the footage to be honest.

Geeeeezus, I'd hate to be the company that lost a days worth of wages to that LeCras synopsis


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[squashface]

Our new recruits were given their jumper numbers, if anyone is interested.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-30/eagles-honour-retiree-as-numbers-allocated

Liam Ryan given number 1.

It's almost thread worthy, right

 

[Max zero]

Very thorough! Appreciate the effort. I would still be interested to see how many of his goals came over the back of a pack. I have a feeling that'd be a telling statistic.

Eh never understood this.

If Lecras is free behind the pack he is either:

1. Not being marked which isn't his fault and has moved into a scoring position to punish.

2. Has evaded his marker and moved into a scoring position.

Both are simply good play.

I would rather a 100% shot at goal from a 'cheapie' over the top to a 70% shot at goal from 30m out.

 

[bUCKET__]

Eh never understood this.

If Lecras is free behind the pack he is either:

1. Not being marked which isn't his fault and has moved into a scoring position to punish.

2. Has evaded his marker and moved into a scoring position.

Both are simply good play.

I would rather a 100% shot at goal from a 'cheapie' over the top to a 70% shot at goal from 30m out.

Being free from an opponent in an attacking play is a different story if there is a bit more two way running when it doesn't pan out. Lecca running into open space for the ball appears twice as quick as him chasing an opponent these days. I don't think people have an issue with these sorta goals per se, but the mental association with unaccountable play.

 

[Nev57]

At his best, Le Cras is one of the smartest forwards in the game. He does a lot off the ball for Kennedy as well.

A lot of those easy leads Kennedy gets, are because of Le Cras getting in the full backs way. He needs to improve his away games but i still back him to start off well next year.

And there is nothing wrong with goals over the back of the contest, thats his job.

Would love nothing better to See Lecca come good again hoping that it's been an injury that slowed him up , the club must still have confidence in him to give him another year

 

[Patron]

So given the LeCras pot shots on the last page, I wondered what is a "cheap goal"? I suppose that's an interesting question.

So I had a look at LeCras goalkicking stats for the year, and what I found was

Goals in losses: 12 in 8, 1.5/game
Goals in wins: 20 in 11, 1.82/game

Goals against the bottom 10: 15 in 10, 1.5/game
Goals against the top 8: 17 in 9, 1.89/game

Goals at home: 16 in 9, 1.78/game
Goals away: 16 in 10, 1.6/game

So a somewhat surprising consistency perhaps with his performances in different conditions, most noticeably he performed better against the top sides than the bottom sides on average.

And then I thought that even those goals in wins or against good teams probably came when the match was over, or no longer winnable. Junk time essentially. So I went through AFL tables to find at what stage he kicked his goals, and what the match situation was at the time he kicked them.

Quarter by quarter
1st 8 goals
2nd 10 goals
3rd 9 goals
4th 5 goals

Actually not many goals kicked late in games, it was a rarity for him this season. He did his best work in the middle quarters.

By match situation
Draw 2 goals
Behind 10 goals
Leading 20 goals

So we get to see here that he kicked most of his goals with the team in front. So maybe he was a bit of a seagull. But it really depends how far in front, and at what time, doesn't it? It's hard to say that kicking a last quarter goal when you're leading by 3 points is downhill skiing. So I ordered the goals by our current margin at the time, with the quarter listed first. Negatives indicate a time when we are behind.

3rd 44
2nd 43
3rd 41
4th 36
2nd 28
3rd 23
3rd 22
3rd 21
3rd 18
3rd 12
2nd 9
4th 8
3rd 6
1st 6
2nd 5
1st 5
2nd 4
2nd 4
2nd 4
2nd 3
1st 0
1st 0
4th -6
1st -6
3rd -7
2nd -9
1st -10
1st -16
1st -16
4th -17
2nd -19
4th -73

What struck me most about this is how often he kicked goals when the scores were close. Fully half (16) of his 32 goals came with the margin at less than 10 points. That's pretty remarkable.

So even at the harshest possible mark you'd have to say more than half of his goals were kicked with the game "there to be won". Even his last quarter goals, only one came with us winning by more than 10 points. If you say the game is "there to be won" with the margin under four goals, over 80% of his goals were kicked in that situation.

While it might seem that way when watching, I don't see in here the indication that he was quite the downhill skier whipping boy his reputation would suggest. He didn't kick a large percentage of his goals only at home, or against poor teams, or in wins, or late in games, or with a big margin.

As for running to the back of packs and kicking goals from the square... I haven't looked at the footage to be honest.

Myth busted. Would be interesting to see a similar analysis in other years which is maybe where this reputation was formed. AndysAngels

 

[Max zero]

Being free from an opponent in an attacking play is a different story if there is a bit more two way running when it doesn't pan out. Lecca running into open space for the ball appears twice as quick as him chasing an opponent these days. I don't think people have an issue with these sorta goals per se, but the mental association with unaccountable play.

But its a double edge sword. If you create distance offensively but our inept midfield turns it over suddenly and you are miles away from an opponent and it can be really hard getting back into the play.

Don't get me wrong you can certainly point out moments where Lecras could of been stronger defensively but its hard to be a forward when you can't rely on your midfield.

 

[westoz]

All this Vardy v Lycett talk! Why not play Vardy CHF, Lycett as a resting tall and finally move Darling to the midfield!!

You don't take a 40+ goal a year forward and move him to the midfield.
Jack wouldn't have the engine or smarts to play as a midfielder.

 

[matt_bas]

You don't take a 40+ goal a year forward and move him to the midfield.
Jack wouldn't have the engine or smarts to play as a midfielder.

Serious?

 

[westoz]

Serious?

Yep,besides the obvious you have to find someone else to get 40+ for the year I just don't see him as a good midfielder.

 

[Quinz]

Myth busted. Would be interesting to see a similar analysis in other years which is maybe where this reputation was formed. AndysAngels

I would have a crack at another year but I'm worried JackieMoon33 might be my boss. Although it's amazing what you can get away with with a spreadsheet open.

 

[Biggie]

Yep,besides the obvious you have to find someone else to get 40+ for the year I just don't see him as a good midfielder.

Nobody does.

It’s a long, long, running joke.

 

[Obeanie1]

You don't take a 40+ goal a year forward and move him to the midfield.
Jack wouldn't have the engine or smarts to play as a midfielder.

Darling would not be a full time midfielder but a rotation.

Then again if you played Darling off a wing I think he would still average two goals a game = 40 goals a year. Jack would be a very diffixult matchup to counter. And he has the tank.

I would have Darling and Allen rotate from a forward pocket and a wing.

 

[matt_bas]

Yep,besides the obvious you have to find someone else to get 40+ for the year I just don't see him as a good midfielder.

D0 you even read this thread. I literally just said it was a joke

 

[archiemoses]

Can't see darling as a full time mid but can see him having a rotation through there. Use his big body to hurt some opposition.

 

[Chris_6678]

Darling would not be a full time midfielder but a rotation.

Then again if you played Darling off a wing I think he would still average two goals a game = 40 goals a year. Jack would be a very diffixult matchup to counter. And he has the tank.

I would have Darling and Allen rotate from a forward pocket and a wing.

Have always wanted him to play more so on a wing then in the guts. He would be a pretty good link up if we kick it long from a kick out. I like the option of roating Allen and Darling as this give us a chance to play both without having to have a massive forward line.

 

[new breed]

Well when Oscar Allen and Jarrad Brander take Darling's forward spot sometime this year ( 2018 ) ..Jack will need to play midfield or else they will trade him for Ellis Yeoman .

Really should be a good year for Jack Darling though and be a good combination with Oscar Allen and Jarrad Brander in the future

 

[bzparkes]

With Oscar Allen and Jake Waterman looking to come into the side I think it's finally time for Darling to take up a midfield role. Could he be the inside bull we've been missing?

 

[Falco]

With Oscar Allen and Jake Waterman looking to come into the side I think it's finally time for Darling to take up a midfield role. Could he be the inside bull we've been missing?

I doubt that will be their plan, I reckon we could see Waterman rotating from the fwd line into the midfield. Jake is cleaner below his knees than Jack, why move Darling onto the ball when he's a better third tall?

 

[Eagle Wrath]

With Oscar Allen and Jake Waterman looking to come into the side I think it's finally time for Darling to take up a midfield role. Could he be the inside bull we've been missing?

I dont expect to see Brander or Allen play next year.
Maybe a token game or two at the end of season for a taste. Or if we are decimated by injuries. Allen has only played 4 games against men, so needs time to develop.

 

[DanWCE]

**** me. Kill this thread already mods.