AFL 2019 - AFL ROUND 23

[balmainforever]

Would’ve thought round 22 results should go in the round 22 thread???

 

[NonPhixion]

Following on from NonPhixion 's post.

2018 Rd 23 matches involving two non-finalists:

Port (89) vs Essendon (111) total 200
Carl (61) vs Adel (165) total 226
StK (94) vs North (117) total 211

All 200+

If you were to multi the three relevant matches this week for 190+ in each you would get odds of around $150 by my maths.

Somebody talk me out of it.

did you pull the trigger? looks like they tightened the odds to $113

 

[mouncey2franklin]

did you pull the trigger? looks like they tightened the odds to $113

I put a small bet on @150 and it now says 'combine legs again 101' so it looks like it has come in quite a bit.

Surely the small number of us on this forum who read these threads are not moving the market that much.

 

[GROTTO]

I put a small bet on @150 and it now says 'combine legs again 101' so it looks like it has come in quite a bit.

Surely the small number of us on this forum who read these threads are not moving the market that much.

What market is this?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I multied the three games featuring non finalists TPS 190+ in each.

When I did this last night I got around 150-1 at SB, now the same bet is around 100-1.

Reason for the bet being that the same three matches last year (feat two non finalists) all went 200+.

Of course any of the three games could go way under 190, it is only a speculative bet.

But 150-1 seemed crazy to me last night. Even 100-1 still seems way overs.

It's bruise-free footy season. These dudes are hittin the cans within hours of the game ending.

The strangest thing is the match with the highest odds for 190+ is Port Freo which seems most likely to me to go over.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

I multied the three games featuring non finalists TPS 190+ in each.

When I did this last night I got around 150-1 at SB, now the same bet is around 100-1.

Reason for the bet being that the same three matches last year (feat two non finalists) all went 200+.

Of course any of the three games could go way under 190, it is only a speculative bet.

But 150-1 seemed crazy to me last night. Even 100-1 still seems way overs.

It's bruise-free footy season. These dudes are hittin the cans within hours of the game ending.

The strangest thing is the match with the highest odds for 190+ is Port Freo which seems most likely to me to go over.

I didn't consider port v freo as non finalists but good point because by the start of that game if Bulldogs win, port cant.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[demon_fanatic]

yeh jeez the Swans Saints total is surging its up to 167.5 sportsbet, can still grab 160.5 at neds guys but $1.83... could still midddle some of it later weighted to the over as well seeing the odds are a bit lower at $1.83

 

[targett]

yeh jeez the Swans Saints total is surging its up to 167.5 sportsbet, can still grab 160.5 at neds guys but $1.83... could still midddle some of it later weighted to the over as well seeing the odds are a bit lower at $1.83

Nice one but Neds banned me long ago

 

[mouncey2franklin]

lol the odds for all of my total points multis have come right in.

I put a (very) small amount on each of the following (x3 = Syd/Stk, North/Mel, Port/Freo):

170+ (x3) @ 12/1 (now 9/1)
180+ (x3) @ 40/1 (now 27/1)
190+ (x3) @ 150/1 (now 101/1)
200+ (x3) @ 780/1 (now 460/1)

All it will take is some bad weather in one of the three games to ruin the whole lot, but I think this was well worth the nibble.

If any of them get up I owe NonPhixion a slab.

 

[Hellboy101]

lol the odds for all of my total points multis have come right in.

I put a (very) small amount on each of the following (x3 = Syd/Stk, North/Mel, Port/Freo):

170+ (x3) @ 12/1 (now 9/1)
180+ (x3) @ 40/1 (now 27/1)
190+ (x3) @ 150/1 (now 101/1)
200+ (x3) @ 780/1 (now 460/1)

All it will take is some bad weather in one of the three games to ruin the whole lot, but I think this was well worth the nibble.

If any of them get up I owe NonPhixion a slab.

I went with Ladbrokes the swans/saints and the Port/Freo games multi over 195.5 @76-1 and over 200.5 @115-1. Good heads up. Fingers crossed

 

[FrankGrimes]

I just backed all teams to score over 90 @ around 550/1...(all teams not playing finals)

 

[targett]

Buddy Franklin plays his 300th . Loves playing the Saints. He has had 28 scoring shots in his last 4 matches against them for 17.11
Swans -14.5 1.91 beteasy/tabtouch

 

[Hellboy101]

Lads total points haven't moved. I am on swans and saints over 165.5 and Port / Freo over 160.5 multi @ 4.9 boosted. Both 2.15 individually. 5u

 

[mouncey2franklin]

View attachment 731397

I like your bet and am not trying to take the piss, but it is funny that in Buddy's 100th, against StK, he scored doughnuts.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I just backed all teams to score over 90 @ around 550/1...(all teams not playing finals)

If Melbourne score over 90 points I will eat my hat.

 

[targett]

I like your bet and am not trying to take the piss, but it is funny that in Buddy's 100th, against StK, he scored doughnuts.

I havnt watched replay of his 100th so cant really comment on why but could of been just a rare dirty day for Bud. Interestingly the two Sydney losses where when he was goalless

 

[FrankGrimes]

If Melbourne score over 90 points I will eat my hat.

Melbourne might come out and score 120 just to piss their supporters off even more..
it’s a throw at the stumps.. worth a try for last round

 

[RooTed]

#AFL #bettingtips

R23 Early Leans TGS

Pies/Dons o152-157.5
Syd/StK u161-167.5
Roos/Dees u169-174.5
Suns/GWS u170-175.5
Rich/Bris o157-159.5
Port/Freo o152-159.5

Obviously take the best line but no less than $1.90. Look thru Multi Maxa app.

GL

On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[redstarforever_]

nth 40+

 

[mookieb]

Would have thought this was a bet in Rd 21 too but maybe it wasn't as it was a loser?

Nothing due to this time of year, but teams often bounce back after 2 shockers in a row so Ess seems to be of interest.

lol.

I'm posting a late season psychological betting model from round 19 to 23, hence the disclaimer "Nothing due to this time of year". Same reason why I didn't include the Bris win over Geel, WC line vs NM or Rich line vs Coll which were all wins.

But let's see how we go this week:

2u O154.5 Port vs Freo
2u O163.5 Syd vs StK
1.5u O160.5 Syd vs StK
1u O170.5 NM vs Melb
1u O170.5 GC vs GWS
2u Rich -13.5
1.5u Coll -13.5 TB
1.5u Port -16.5

Feel free for you and Targett to post you're bets up.

 

[targett]

lol.

I'm posting a late season psychological betting model from round 19 to 23, hence the disclaimer "Nothing due to this time of year". Same reason why I didn't include the Bris win over Geel, WC line vs NM or Rich line vs Coll which were all wins.

But let's see how we go this week:

2u O154.5 Port vs Freo
2u O163.5 Syd vs StK
1.5u O160.5 Syd vs StK
1u O170.5 NM vs Melb
1u O170.5 GC vs GWS
2u Rich -13.5
1.5u Coll -13.5 TB
1.5u Port -16.5

Feel free for you and Targett to post you're bets up.

First time for everything

 

[iluvparis]

lol.

I'm posting a late season psychological betting model from round 19 to 23, hence the disclaimer "Nothing due to this time of year". Same reason why I didn't include the Bris win over Geel, WC line vs NM or Rich line vs Coll which were all wins.

But let's see how we go this week:

2u O154.5 Port vs Freo
2u O163.5 Syd vs StK
1.5u O160.5 Syd vs StK
1u O170.5 NM vs Melb
1u O170.5 GC vs GWS
2u Rich -13.5
1.5u Coll -13.5 TB
1.5u Port -16.5

Feel free for you and Targett to post you're bets up.

Then why did you include the wins on Essendon when you backed them due to 'bad sides not playing x games in a row' rule?

That's the thing i love about psychological betting - in hindsight you can use it to explain ANY result.

FWIW the only bets I have this week are Gold Coast H2 margin 1-12 and old mate's hilarious TGS multi with non-finalists.

 

[targett]

Market Movers

Collingwood -14.5 1.9 > -19.5 1.85 >-17.5@1.85
Sydney -14.5 1.9 > -15.5 1.9 > -15.5@1.90
North -24.5 1.9 > -25.5 1.9 > -25.5@1.90
Geelong -30.5 1.9 > -31.5@1.90
GWS -48.5 1.9 > -50.5 1.9 > -48.5@1.90
Bulldogs -17.5 1.9 > -18.5 1.95 > -18.5@1.85
Richmond -14.5 1.9 > -14.5@1.85
Port -16.5 1.9 > -17.5@1.90

 

[X_box_X]

DumBet is offering $14 for Sandilands to be the tallest player in round 23. Is he likely to play? The market gets suspended prior to the announcement of teams. They must know something that I don't.

 

[targett]

DumBet is offering $14 for Sandilands to be the tallest player in round 23. Is he likely to play? The market gets suspended prior to the announcement of teams. They must know something that I don't.

Who is DumBet