balmainforever
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- #51
Would’ve thought round 22 results should go in the round 22 thread???
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AFL 2019 - AFL ROUND 23
- Thread starter targett
- Start date
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- Mar 27, 2018
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did you pull the trigger? looks like they tightened the odds to $113
- Jun 16, 2018
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I put a small bet on @150 and it now says 'combine legs again 101' so it looks like it has come in quite a bit.
Surely the small number of us on this forum who read these threads are not moving the market that much.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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What market is this?
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- Jun 16, 2018
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I multied the three games featuring non finalists TPS 190+ in each.
When I did this last night I got around 150-1 at SB, now the same bet is around 100-1.
Reason for the bet being that the same three matches last year (feat two non finalists) all went 200+.
Of course any of the three games could go way under 190, it is only a speculative bet.
But 150-1 seemed crazy to me last night. Even 100-1 still seems way overs.
It's bruise-free footy season. These dudes are hittin the cans within hours of the game ending.
The strangest thing is the match with the highest odds for 190+ is Port Freo which seems most likely to me to go over.
When I did this last night I got around 150-1 at SB, now the same bet is around 100-1.
Reason for the bet being that the same three matches last year (feat two non finalists) all went 200+.
Of course any of the three games could go way under 190, it is only a speculative bet.
But 150-1 seemed crazy to me last night. Even 100-1 still seems way overs.
It's bruise-free footy season. These dudes are hittin the cans within hours of the game ending.
The strangest thing is the match with the highest odds for 190+ is Port Freo which seems most likely to me to go over.
I didn't consider port v freo as non finalists but good point because by the start of that game if Bulldogs win, port cant.
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yeh jeez the Swans Saints total is surging its up to 167.5 sportsbet, can still grab 160.5 at neds guys but $1.83... could still midddle some of it later weighted to the over as well seeing the odds are a bit lower at $1.83
- Thread starter
- #58
Nice one but Neds banned me long ago
- Jun 16, 2018
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lol the odds for all of my total points multis have come right in.
I put a (very) small amount on each of the following (x3 = Syd/Stk, North/Mel, Port/Freo):
170+ (x3) @ 12/1 (now 9/1)
180+ (x3) @ 40/1 (now 27/1)
190+ (x3) @ 150/1 (now 101/1)
200+ (x3) @ 780/1 (now 460/1)
All it will take is some bad weather in one of the three games to ruin the whole lot, but I think this was well worth the nibble.
If any of them get up I owe NonPhixion a slab.
I put a (very) small amount on each of the following (x3 = Syd/Stk, North/Mel, Port/Freo):
170+ (x3) @ 12/1 (now 9/1)
180+ (x3) @ 40/1 (now 27/1)
190+ (x3) @ 150/1 (now 101/1)
200+ (x3) @ 780/1 (now 460/1)
All it will take is some bad weather in one of the three games to ruin the whole lot, but I think this was well worth the nibble.
If any of them get up I owe NonPhixion a slab.
Hellboy101
Senior List
I went with Ladbrokes the swans/saints and the Port/Freo games multi over 195.5 @76-1 and over 200.5 @115-1. Good heads up. Fingers crossed
- Thread starter
- #62
Hellboy101
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Lads total points haven't moved. I am on swans and saints over 165.5 and Port / Freo over 160.5 multi @ 4.9 boosted. Both 2.15 individually. 5u
- Jun 16, 2018
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I like your bet and am not trying to take the piss, but it is funny that in Buddy's 100th, against StK, he scored doughnuts.
- Jun 16, 2018
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If Melbourne score over 90 points I will eat my hat.
- Thread starter
- #66
I havnt watched replay of his 100th so cant really comment on why but could of been just a rare dirty day for Bud. Interestingly the two Sydney losses where when he was goalless
Melbourne might come out and score 120 just to piss their supporters off even more..
it’s a throw at the stumps.. worth a try for last round
- Oct 25, 2017
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#AFL #bettingtips
R23 Early Leans TGS
Pies/Dons o152-157.5
Syd/StK u161-167.5
Roos/Dees u169-174.5
Suns/GWS u170-175.5
Rich/Bris o157-159.5
Port/Freo o152-159.5
Obviously take the best line but no less than $1.90. Look thru Multi Maxa app.
GL
On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app
R23 Early Leans TGS
Pies/Dons o152-157.5
Syd/StK u161-167.5
Roos/Dees u169-174.5
Suns/GWS u170-175.5
Rich/Bris o157-159.5
Port/Freo o152-159.5
Obviously take the best line but no less than $1.90. Look thru Multi Maxa app.
GL
On the gear using BigFooty.com mobile app
nth 40+
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lol.
I'm posting a late season psychological betting model from round 19 to 23, hence the disclaimer "Nothing due to this time of year". Same reason why I didn't include the Bris win over Geel, WC line vs NM or Rich line vs Coll which were all wins.
But let's see how we go this week:
2u O154.5 Port vs Freo
2u O163.5 Syd vs StK
1.5u O160.5 Syd vs StK
1u O170.5 NM vs Melb
1u O170.5 GC vs GWS
2u Rich -13.5
1.5u Coll -13.5 TB
1.5u Port -16.5
Feel free for you and Targett to post you're bets up.
- Thread starter
- #71
First time for everything
iluvparis
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Then why did you include the wins on Essendon when you backed them due to 'bad sides not playing x games in a row' rule?
That's the thing i love about psychological betting - in hindsight you can use it to explain ANY result.
FWIW the only bets I have this week are Gold Coast H2 margin 1-12 and old mate's hilarious TGS multi with non-finalists.
- Thread starter
- #73
Market Movers
Collingwood -14.5 1.9 > -19.5 1.85 >-17.5@1.85
Sydney -14.5 1.9 > -15.5 1.9 > -15.5@1.90
North -24.5 1.9 > -25.5 1.9 > -25.5@1.90
Geelong -30.5 1.9 > -31.5@1.90
GWS -48.5 1.9 > -50.5 1.9 > -48.5@1.90
Bulldogs -17.5 1.9 > -18.5 1.95 > -18.5@1.85
Richmond -14.5 1.9 > -14.5@1.85
Port -16.5 1.9 > -17.5@1.90
Collingwood -14.5 1.9 > -19.5 1.85 >-17.5@1.85
Sydney -14.5 1.9 > -15.5 1.9 > -15.5@1.90
North -24.5 1.9 > -25.5 1.9 > -25.5@1.90
Geelong -30.5 1.9 > -31.5@1.90
GWS -48.5 1.9 > -50.5 1.9 > -48.5@1.90
Bulldogs -17.5 1.9 > -18.5 1.95 > -18.5@1.85
Richmond -14.5 1.9 > -14.5@1.85
Port -16.5 1.9 > -17.5@1.90
X_box_X
VFL is taking over.
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DumBet is offering $14 for Sandilands to be the tallest player in round 23. Is he likely to play? The market gets suspended prior to the announcement of teams. They must know something that I don't.
- Thread starter
- #75
Who is DumBet
