List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Mega Thread - Pickett is not eligible as F/S or NGA

[shewho]

Doesn't work like that thankfully. The deficit comes from the equivalent round that the bid comes. So if Mead last through to the 3rd round and we don't have enough points to cover it, the difference will come from our third round picks from next year

So that makes my plan genius, even if Mead attracts a bid in R2.

We get 3 players before Mead (all top 25), Mead and our points deficit is paid for by our second round pick in 2020. This pick would likely be traded down anyway as bids for Schofield and Jones look like coming in the second round. Next year we get a first round pick maybe a second round pick, Schofield and Jones.

The genius of my plan is that Freo will be worse off if they don't accept #29 #66 and #67 (and a promise not to bid on Henry) for #22. And if our bluff is called, we get Henry who is a top 10 talent in my view and exactly what we currently need.

 

[Tibbs]

The doom and gloom here is too much. We just missed the 8. These players will be better than they were this year-
....
We will be finalists.

Further, by the time we select Mead, Green, Henry and Maginess will have all attracted bids paid for with lower picks and our later picks will have all come down and pay more of Mead.

I may be wrong but my understanding is that after the first round the F/S discount is fixed at 197 points (the equivalent of #18). So the later Mead goes, the higher (in percentage terms) the discount.

I your post for its positivity ... God know this board needs it!

But sadly, I am not as positive as you! We have the potential, but IMO with Hinkley at the helm, it is more likely that we will waste another year with poor selection policy, and stubborn persistence in using a flawed game plan.

 

[Tibbs]

I may be wrong but my understanding is that after the first round the F/S discount is fixed at 197 points (the equivalent of #18). So the later Mead goes, the higher (in percentage terms) the discount.

You are correct.

• In the first round, a maximum discount of 20% will be applied
• The discount will then be fixed at 197 points (the discount for pick 18).
• Structuring the discount in this way ensures:

1. “fair value” is paid in the early rounds
2. the listing of F/S players and local Academy graduates is facilitated in later rounds because the discount rises steadily from 20% in Round 1 to 100% at pick 56 (if a player is bid from this point, a Nominating Club need only use their last pick in the draft to list the player).

https://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

 

[DaTBird187]

A few years ago John Butcher was the only player named John playing in the AFL. Has anyone taken over the honour since?

Nowadays his name would be spelt Tjyohne. The T is silent.

 

[snozulu]

Suns' likely Darwin pick set to bring pace, pressure and tricks

Malcolm Rosas is likely to join Gold Coast as a Darwin Academy selection at the NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

LIVEWIRE forward Malcolm Rosas looks set to be the first player to benefit from Gold Coast's new access to Darwin as an Academy zone.


The Suns have been granted the Darwin zone as part of a raft of measures given to the club in the AFL's assistance package.


It includes the ability to sign players from the Darwin region in the Northern Territory – and Gold Coast's own Queensland zone – without having to match bids for the prospects.

Connor Budarick is also expected to join the Suns, with the northern Academy player enjoying a consistent season.


Some clubs viewed the quick rebounding defender and midfielder as a possible top-30 pick at the draft before the rules were introduced that allow the Suns to automatically select him outside of normal draft process.

Gotta love how the AFL bend the rules and integrity to suit their needs for their expansion teams. They won't admit a failure and instead compromise more drafts.

I wasn't against them getting the priority pick this season but that was it. I really hope we get luko next year off of them.

 

[Andre]

Suns' likely Darwin pick set to bring pace, pressure and tricks

Malcolm Rosas is likely to join Gold Coast as a Darwin Academy selection at the NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

LIVEWIRE forward Malcolm Rosas looks set to be the first player to benefit from Gold Coast's new access to Darwin as an Academy zone.


The Suns have been granted the Darwin zone as part of a raft of measures given to the club in the AFL's assistance package.


It includes the ability to sign players from the Darwin region in the Northern Territory – and Gold Coast's own Queensland zone – without having to match bids for the prospects.

Connor Budarick is also expected to join the Suns, with the northern Academy player enjoying a consistent season.


Some clubs viewed the quick rebounding defender and midfielder as a possible top-30 pick at the draft before the rules were introduced that allow the Suns to automatically select him outside of normal draft process.

Gotta love how the AFL bend the rules and integrity to suit their needs for their expansion teams. They won't admit a failure and instead compromise more drafts.

I wasn't against them getting the priority pick this season but that was it. I really hope we get luko next year off of them.

The Suns getting the priority access to Darwin and GC players is better than the priority picks. At least they won't be top line Vic players they put a couple of years into, only for the Vic clubs to reap the rewards once they just get to the stage they will play lots of games.

 

[Macca19]

Rosas and Budarick will be good pickups for them.

 

[Macca19]

Nowadays his name would be spelt Tjyohne. The T is silent.

There's a kid in the WAFL for East Fremantle called Koopah.

A part of me died inside.

 

[Janus]

There's a kid in the WAFL for East Fremantle called Koopah.

A part of me died inside.

Is his last name Paratroopa?

 

[ClickBOOM1870]

If we could get pick 10 from Fremantle in its own right then I would have no issue with us using our 2020 first round pick to secure it.

CD did indicate during the trade period that we are open to trading it. He pointed to next years draft as being more compromised so it may be that we feel like we can get more value for next years first round selection by spending it in this years draft.

From a Freo perspective, pick 10 is at risk of being absorbed by an early bid on Henry so it might make sense for them to trade it into next year and match the bid with 22 instead. Additionally they could make us promise not to bid on Henry at 10, 12 or 18 which could push the Henry bid even back further for them.

This scenario would give us 10,12,18 & 29. If we could then turn that into Stephens (10), Kemp (12), Gould (18) & Mead (29) then I would be super happy with that haul.

 

[robbo1981]

If we could get pick 10 from Fremantle in its own right then I would have no issue with us using our 2020 first round pick to secure it.

CD did indicate during the trade period that we are open to trading it. He pointed to next years draft as being more compromised so it may be that we feel like we can get more value for next years first round selection by spending it in this years draft.

From a Freo perspective, pick 10 is at risk of being absorbed by an early bid on Henry so it might make sense for them to trade it into next year and match the bid with 22 instead. Additionally they could make us promise not to bid on Henry at 10, 12 or 18 which could push the Henry bid even back further for them.

This scenario would give us 10,12,18 & 29. If we could then turn that into Stephens (10), Kemp (12), Gould (18) & Mead (29) then I would be super happy with that haul.

Makes you wonder why we had to give it the first place.

 

[Fade to Gray]

The doom and gloom here is too much. We just missed the 8. These players will be better than they were this year-

Burton
Motlop
Ebert
Hartlett
Rockliff
Marshall
Wines
Butters
Rozee
Duursma
Dixon
Watts
Farrell
Garner
Drew
Lycett
Woodcock
Ladhams
Jonas

We've only lost Ryder, Howard and Frampton. Their sum total of contribution in 2019 was small.

We will be finalists.

Further, by the time we select Mead, Green, Henry and Maginess will have all attracted bids paid for with lower picks and our later picks will have all come down and pay more of Mead.

I may be wrong but my understanding is that after the first round the F/S discount is fixed at 197 points (the equivalent of #18). So the later Mead goes, the higher (in percentage terms) the discount.

Burton - was decent this year, injuries a concern - has a history of missing games
Motlop - no guarantee, possibly not desperate enough to make it
Ebert - hope so, but concussion issues could potentially be career ending
Hartlett - has always been a bit of a tease, decent player, not sure he has ever been a great player
Rockliff - shoulder cooked? Looking like a bad recruiting mistake
Marshall - should be better, still question marks over if he will make it
Wines - should be better, had a horrible season - question marks over club loyalty
Butters - 2nd year blues?
Rozee - see above - Will cop more opposition attention
Duursma - see above - Will cop more opposition attention
Dixon - should be better, but has overall been disappointing
Watts - apart from the Melbourne game, hasn't done much. Hopefully the recovery from a bad looking injury is going well, but he is no guarantee to be good
Farrell - like the look of him, been in and out a bit - jury is still out
Garner - should get more opportunity - gut feel says he will be pretty good, but still unproven
Drew - competent mid, don't think he is a difference maker,
Lycett - Expect a similar output from him - thought he was pretty decent. The coaches disagreed and he was dropped - so who knows
Woodcock - Hasn't played yet, not sure if he will make it
Ladhams - Really impressed me last year, probable improver.
Jonas - Maybe, I expect we will see a similar season.


I expect we will be somewhere around the same mark as we have been the last few years. Pretty mediocre, have a bit of luck and sneak into the 8, then lose 1st week or somewhere between 9 - 12.

 

[rignanv]

If we could get pick 10 from Fremantle in its own right then I would have no issue with us using our 2020 first round pick to secure it.

CD did indicate during the trade period that we are open to trading it. He pointed to next years draft as being more compromised so it may be that we feel like we can get more value for next years first round selection by spending it in this years draft.

From a Freo perspective, pick 10 is at risk of being absorbed by an early bid on Henry so it might make sense for them to trade it into next year and match the bid with 22 instead. Additionally they could make us promise not to bid on Henry at 10, 12 or 18 which could push the Henry bid even back further for them.

This scenario would give us 10,12,18 & 29. If we could then turn that into Stephens (10), Kemp (12), Gould (18) & Mead (29) then I would be super happy with that haul.

I would not be happy to trade our future first rounder for anything. Likely to be a top 4 pick which should get us a gun player in the draft or help us land lukoscius

 

[Ateen7tee]

Burton - was decent this year, injuries a concern - has a history of missing games
Motlop - no guarantee, possibly not desperate enough to make it
Ebert - hope so, but concussion issues could potentially be career ending
Hartlett - has always been a bit of a tease, decent player, not sure he has ever been a great player
Rockliff - shoulder cooked? Looking like a bad recruiting mistake
Marshall - should be better, still question marks over if he will make it
Wines - should be better, had a horrible season - question marks over club loyalty
Butters - 2nd year blues?
Rozee - see above - Will cop more opposition attention
Duursma - see above - Will cop more opposition attention
Dixon - should be better, but has overall been disappointing
Watts - apart from the Melbourne game, hasn't done much. Hopefully the recovery from a bad looking injury is going well, but he is no guarantee to be good
Farrell - like the look of him, been in and out a bit - jury is still out
Garner - should get more opportunity - gut feel says he will be pretty good, but still unproven
Drew - competent mid, don't think he is a difference maker,
Lycett - Expect a similar output from him - thought he was pretty decent. The coaches disagreed and he was dropped - so who knows
Woodcock - Hasn't played yet, not sure if he will make it
Ladhams - Really impressed me last year, probable improver.
Jonas - Maybe, I expect we will see a similar season.


I expect we will be somewhere around the same mark as we have been the last few years. Pretty mediocre, have a bit of luck and sneak into the 8, then lose 1st week or somewhere between 9 - 12.

You must be fun at parties..

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Doesn't work like that thankfully. The deficit comes from the equivalent round that the bid comes. So if Mead last through to the 3rd round and we don't have enough points to cover it, the difference will come from our third round picks from next year

Yes it does according to the AFL's own document. From page 8 LHS of the original document explaining how the Bidding system works.

https://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

 

[Macca19]

Yes it does according to the AFL's own document. From page 8 LHS of the original document explaining how the Bidding system works.

https://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

View attachment 769095

This document is dated May 2015, it is outdated and no longer applies.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This document is dated May 2015, it is outdated and no longer applies.

where is the update?

 

[Macca19]

where is the update?

Can't find the rules but here is an announcement about it:

Father-son picks could put Pies into draft points deficit

Chasing father-son prospects now could see Pies in debt at 2017 draft

www.afl.com.au

The AFL added a safeguard to its complex system last year to protect the future first-round picks of clubs who want to take a father-son or academy player late in the draft.

It means that a club will not risk pushing back its first pick in the following year's draft if it goes into a points debt by choosing a later-round selection.

Instead, any points incurred for later round players can be repaid in the round the bid is received. A first-round draft position would only be altered if a bid came in the previous year's first round, which seems unlikely for the Collingwood pair.

This means that if the Pies go into deficit by matching an early third-round bid for Daicos, then their third-round pick next year would be shuffled down the order to make up the leftover points.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Can't find the rules but here is an announcement about it:

Father-son picks could put Pies into draft points deficit

Chasing father-son prospects now could see Pies in debt at 2017 draft

www.afl.com.au

Thanks Macca, I searched plenty the other day and couldn't find it. Obviously typing in the wrong things to google.

These changes are a ****in' rort for the northern teams and those who can spend big on their academy and luck out with who are in their NGA's and father-sons.

GWS has southern NSW which is a bit of a gold mine. So they can take lots of top 5 and top 10 bidding picks even though they make a PF regularly, lose a few picks then say early in the 3rd round, pick another academy kid, go into deficit, and then in following year, rather than lose their first and second round pick, still be able to use these points to the maximum, to maybe get another top 5 or 10 pick despite their first pick being in the 15-20 range, and only effectively lose their 3rd round pick rather than hurt them getting another top 5 pick.

More concocted BS by the AFL.

 

[shewho]

So then it’s settled. #22 for #29, #66 and #67 (and a promise not to bid on Henry). Fremantle can’t say no and we get 4 top 25 talents into the club.

For the cost of a downgrade on our 2020 second rounder, this is a bargain.

Alternatively, we get Henry for #12. A good deal too.

 

[Revan11]

I would not be happy to trade our future first rounder for anything. Likely to be a top 4 pick which should get us a gun player in the draft or help us land lukoscius

Even if we have a top 5 pick next year, this could be pushed down to outside the top ten due to academy picks. Our 2020 first should 100% be on the table.

 

[rignanv]

Even if we have a top 5 pick next year, this could be pushed down to outside the top ten due to academy picks. Our 2020 first should 100% be on the table.

I disagree. I think we're a chance to finish bottom 2. Even if our pick gets downgraded due to fs and academy bids we still have access to the equivalent live pick. E.g. if pick 4 ends up being 10 we still get access to the 4th best player available given that we don't have access to the other players anyway

 

[MALTSY]

Dream selections...
Stephens (12), Gould (18) & Sharp (29)

grab McBean and another tall defender and do whatever we can to get Thilthorpe in 2020 draft.

 

[MALTSY]

Dream selections...
Stephens (12), Gould (18) & Sharp (29)

grab McBean and another tall defender and do whatever we can to get Thilthorpe in 2020 draft.

Gould to HBF and Burton to HFF

 

[Macca19]

Even if we have a top 5 pick next year, this could be pushed down to outside the top ten due to academy picks. Our 2020 first should 100% be on the table.

Even so, those academy players arent really available to us, so dont really count