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List Mgmt. 2021 Team & Beyond...

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Your analysis would hold up if it can be proven that Richmond weren't applying sufficient pressure in the first half of both of these games, and then increased this pressure to 'unsustainable levels' (for us) in the respective second halves. After all, our game plan was clearly working very effectively in the first half of both matches, notwithstanding the inability to convert our dominance into significant scoreboard advantage on either occasion.

This hypothesis of 'crumbling under extreme pressure' would mean that Richmond just cruised through the first half of both matches, and then lifted 'as necessary' because the Cats were actually posing some sort of challenge. My observation of both games would be that, rather than seeing the Tigers massively lift after half-time, we just dropped away alarmingly. Much like we did in the third quarter of the QF against Port. And yet we played four quality quarters against the Lions in the PF a week ago, and against the admittedly rather insipid Pies in the SF as well.

So is it really because our game plan is 'unsustainable' for four quarters against the very best teams? Given it's based on less frenetic activity and more 'control' than a team like the Tigers, I find that hard to justify rationally. At the ground, still felt much more to me like we just dropped our intensity and got overwhelmed by the surge in a maddening rerun of last year's PF.

Which means I'm still not convinced that the game plan is such a huge issue. What's more, for any who think we should ape the Tigers' approach, I actually think that's even less likely to meet with success. They have achieved such synergy with it that I don't see any team coming up with anything other than a pale imitation. Surely the way to beat them is to devise a game plan that is different and sustainably disruptive to their 'chaos is king' philosophy. In that sense, it's entirely understandable that a game plan based on 'control' would be intuitively probable to counter their extreme chaos.

I also believe it's significant that we are the team that has run them closest (at least in terms of looking like we could hold and potentially break away from them) in every single one of their premiership years. Our game plan (or some adaptation of it) has shown the most prospect of actually being the scheme to bring them down. Getting to the point where we can be ascendant for longer has clearly been the biggest problem in the last two finals against them. But proving superior for two quarters each time is a demonstrable improvement on anything any other side has managed against them in their flag seasons; hence my belief that suggesting the game plan is hugely problematic is somewhat lazy analysis.
100%. One positive to take from this year is that narratives about how the cats can't hack finals should be dead.
 

see post #103.

Room for he and Henderson next year no doubt, but my preference would be for the backline to genuinely rejigged - two tall defenders only.
I'd want one of those to be Jack Henry, probably at CHB.

Blicavs and/or Henderson would probably hold down that FB spot; however if we are struggling next year - and we've seen this happen to a couple of recent Grand Finallists - then I would want to get some games into Sam De Koning, at the expense of one if not both Henderson and Blicavs.

Blicavs is handy no doubt, at his best he is an asset and he has done very well to eke out an AFL career given his unusual pathway into the comp.
But his disposal under pressure is suspect imo; I thought his GF last night was quite poor and his finals record is so-so if I'm being generous - all very well having limitations, e.g. Tom Lonergan, but when there are talented kids waiting in the wings who could potentially fill the brief and ultimately be an upgrade on the position then I would be keen to have a look, if the W-L ratio was skewing negatively ..
 
You've just articulated something that has been nagging at me; If Harry Taylor retires we have an opportunity to redress the top-heavy nature of our defense.
However if we acquire Jeremy Cameron then we are potentially creating a similar problem in terms of our forward line/ruck division balance, exactly as you have outlined.
Hawkins and Cameron as KF.
Blicavs FB
Hendo CHB
Stanley and Sav sharing ruck duties.
We have just made a GF, and carried a couple of oldies.
Our defence is fine. Take out Dusty, 4 goals, and make the most of our own chances, and we are not so depressed.
The issue is Dusty.
If we sacrifice Guthrie again, he could certainly take on the run-with role.
I wonder if Bews could do that- great speed, fitness and strength.
The other possible tagger could be Henry- gut runner and a gutsy mark too.
People suggesting Bews and Kolo to go are dreaming.
No Higgins.
Do JJ and Stephen play next year?
 
see post #103.

Room for he and Henderson next year no doubt, but my preference would be for the backline to genuinely rejigged - two tall defenders only.
I'd want one of those to be Jack Henry, probably at CHB.

Blicavs and/or Henderson would probably hold down that FB spot; however if we are struggling next year - and we've seen this happen to a couple of recent Grand Finallists - then I would want to get some games into Sam De Koning, at the expense of one if not both Henderson and Blicavs.

Blicavs is handy no doubt, at his best he is an asset and he has done very well to eke out an AFL career given his unusual pathway into the comp.
But his disposal under pressure is suspect imo; I thought his GF last night was quite poor and his finals record is so-so if I'm being generous - all very well having limitations, e.g. Tom Lonergan, but when there are talented kids waiting in the wings who could potentially fill the brief and ultimately be an upgrade on the position then I would be keen to have a look, if the W-L ratio was skewing negatively ..
Very harsh on Blicavs. He is more than handy, and possibly next skipper.
 

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Very harsh on Blicavs. He is more than handy, and possibly next skipper.

Stewart.

Far less prone to panicking under pressure, and played almost a lone hand last night, whereas Blitz was ordinary, at best.

I like Blitz, I'd drop Hendo first, but I think Stewart as Captain would generate more respect for his grunt and assuredness than Blitz.
 
Very harsh on Blicavs. He is more than handy, and possibly next skipper.

Fair enough, I get why some supporters wouldn't like that call - there was some leeway in my comment I hope you'd acknowledge: if we're up to our eyeballs in the race for a flag next year and Blicavs is playing well, then of course we'd persist - but if we're struggling or not really in contention then I personally would want to shake things up a bit down back, where I think we have been too tall for too long. Just my opinion; don't reckon Scott and co are reading or giving it any credence so I wouldn't be too bothered if I were you.

Thing is ''kids these days'' are less likely to stick around and put in a long apprenticeship in the VFL honing their craft and biding their time; if they're not given opportunities then they are likely to explore their options (which I do not begrudge one bit; a footballer's career is over relatively quickly unless you're in the top %5) - by most reports we have a tall kid with a ton of potential on the list in De Koning; best position thus far has been as a KD.
You reckon he won't be getting itchy feet if he doesn't get a run at some stage in 2021?

Is Blicavs that good as a KD? Very strong athletically and definitely has a dip - but very limited in his disposal and prone to poor decision making from time to time - not saying he is a dud, but I don't think he is irreplaceable at FB either ...
 
100%. One positive to take from this year is that narratives about how the cats can't hack finals should be dead.

Yep. I think that is gone now.

Probably should have beaten Port really.

Just not quite good enough against tigers.

So blokes like Menegola, Guthrie, Miers, Stewart, etc should have the belief going foreword.


Main changes is some pace out of the backline and goalkicking crumbers. Maybe a ruck too - Stanley had a great season but he needs help.
 
see post #103.

Room for he and Henderson next year no doubt, but my preference would be for the backline to genuinely rejigged - two tall defenders only.
I'd want one of those to be Jack Henry, probably at CHB.

Blicavs and/or Henderson would probably hold down that FB spot; however if we are struggling next year - and we've seen this happen to a couple of recent Grand Finallists - then I would want to get some games into Sam De Koning, at the expense of one if not both Henderson and Blicavs.

Blicavs is handy no doubt, at his best he is an asset and he has done very well to eke out an AFL career given his unusual pathway into the comp.
But his disposal under pressure is suspect imo; I thought his GF last night was quite poor and his finals record is so-so if I'm being generous - all very well having limitations, e.g. Tom Lonergan, but when there are talented kids waiting in the wings who could potentially fill the brief and ultimately be an upgrade on the position then I would be keen to have a look, if the W-L ratio was skewing negatively ..
Young Henry a bit short to pick up a Darling or Kennedy.

I think the wider point is that our backline relies on defenders who were not wildly talented coming onto the list. The system of playing a raft of 190cm players means that often a mid looks up and sees an array of potential interceptors and has to wait for his forwards to arrive and force it into a ground level contest.

If we're going smaller then I think we need more individually brilliant defenders, and is rather spend my draft/cap chips on mids/forwards
 
Yep. I think that is gone now.

Probably should have beaten Port really.

Just not quite good enough against tigers.

So blokes like Menegola, Guthrie, Miers, Stewart, etc should have the belief going foreword.


Main changes is some pace out of the backline and goalkicking crumbers. Maybe a ruck too - Stanley had a great season but he needs help.
Yeah if we're playing 2 tall forwards we're going to need to put a lot more pace on our attack to keep space in front of our kpfs.

I think some people are looking on paper at a Cameron/Hawkins combo and thinking it buys us 5 more goals a game but it's more complex than that.

We're going to need to be substantially better in clearances than our second half effort in the GF for example.

We're probably going to have to park players in the corridor and not push up so we can cut off rebounding efforts because we won't have the same ground level pressure in f50.

A good player type for that role would be maybe MOC and Blitz - height + leg speed. But then you need other players back to be the actual defenders so Zuthrie and DEK come in maybe? Does this mean we play more defenders? Do we need to change the mix of mids to compensate?

With mids not pushing up a hard do we lose some goals from mids hitting the scoreboard?

Cameron will be a trade that has the potential to set us up for success, but also to set us up for failure if we don't answer the question of how we change the structure to suit.
 
One positive to take from this year is that narratives about how the cats can't hack finals should be dead.

Totally agree. And, of course, the real positive in that is not actually for the supporter base or the media scrum. It's for the only group that really matters, the players.
 
Something to add to this thread would be the President position too with Carter leaving after this season.
Is Gartland the obvious choice or do we look elsewhere? If so who? Would there be a short list or do we have a heir apparent?
I think its been organised.

I am wondering if its James Sutherland.

I am not sure I want that.
 
The lack of VFL football could have halted the development of players like DeKoning, Stephens etc
So I personally am not expecting too much from these types next year, or any draftees

the question we need to ask is can we win the 2021 premiership?
 

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Hard to know where to go from here - there'd be those who don't wanna ''throw out the baby with the bathwater'', but I think that it's time to put a line through this current model and start afresh.

- Ablett and presumably Taylor's retirements open up opportunities for some fresh legs.

- Jeremy Cameron will hopefully take some of the burden from Hawkins shoulders.

- Like most of us I've greatly admired Joel Selwood's career, but I wonder whether it might not be time to hand the captaincy reigns on; we need new voices taking ownership of the team.

- Chris Scott will stay for at least another year (and will most likely see out his current contract); he needs to start ensuring that the club does not stagnate into a comfortable retirement home; he has prioritized experience and mature bodies, time to back in some youth for once imo.

- I want to see Parfitt complemented by Fogarty, Simpson and Narkle (if we retain him) in the midfield next year.
There's still a place for Duncan and Guthrie of course, but blokes like Rohan, Dahlhaus and Tuohy should not be keeping kids like Fogarty out of the team. Yes, there will be teething problems and quiet games from a midfield that skews younger; I'm very prepared to endure them.

- The backline needs remodelling; Harry's exit will give us an opportunity to do so.
Jack Henry should be manning one of the KD positions next year; beyond that it should be down to Mark Blicavs vs Lachie Henderson for that 2nd KD role; we don't need both. Ultimately though we will need to give Sam De Koning some opportunities next year; talented kids aren't gonna hang around forever awaiting their chance.

- Patrick Dangerfield is an interesting one; I think we have seen his best (which was great); unfortunately his footy IQ does not match his physical ability. I think expectations surrounding his ability to be our match-winner need to be adjusted.
Park him around half-forward; I really don't like him in the midfield, too sloppy with his disposal. He needs to keep things super-simple. His marking is probably his best strength moving forward, this year I've liked him most when he has been leading up the flanks and wings as a marking target; offers good value in those contests.

More opportunities for Brad Close; give Frank Evans a run ...

Time to freshen the place up.

B: Bews De Koning Kolodjashnij
HB: Stewart Henry O'Connor

C: Menegola Parfitt Duncan

HF: Close Cameron Dangerfield
F: Simpson Hawkins Miers

R: Stanley Guthrie Fogarty

I/C: Selwood (final year) Ratugolea Evans Narkle (if Narkle goes then I'd be giving Cooper opportunities)

I’m sympathetic to this view and the need to refresh with young talent rather than bring in expensive players in their twilight. I have a suspicion Scott and co think they’ll need an experienced mid, not just for one final shot with Hawk and Selwood in the team but also to assist with transition. Understandable, but could come with a big opportunity cost.

The preferred team is going to rely on some intriguing list management/draft conundrums. Big decisions on -

- Taylor, Stevens, JJ and maybe Touhy. Realise that some have another year on contract but should be considered depth only. I suspect that Scott sees that Taylor maybe necessary to one more shot at a GF - I think he’d retire otherwise. JJ in particular would be wondering about his chances with Cameron coming in.

- Zuthrie depth or if not, what ? Who does he replace? Not a KP defender. Not a big fan of Kolo TBH (lacks nous, reliable footskills and little slow) but Zach is probably not a threat.

- Rohan and Dahl. Both delivered minimal impact in GF and patchy in other finals. No sure can be relied on - depth for last year of contract?

- Sav and Fort. Know that Cameron also lessens their chances. Fort probably not a flight risk and would be happy to remain as depth you’d think (and progressed well this year - could be a decent ruck by 2021). Sav could be anything but needs the opportunities that are likely to be more plentiful elsewhere.

- Clarke - looks 5 kgs too light, but the lack of line breaking/footskills for us means we have to play him. I’d substitute Touhy.

- Narkle - I don’t know. His best mid work is line breaking great but seems limited in all other attributes. By comparison seems miles behind Guthrie and Simpson in overall ‘value’. Atkins similar question - defensive pressure can be great but do we get enough otherwise?

- Freddie, Parsons, Kennerly, Jarvis ,Tarca and Brownless- some ability but is their upside enough to persist with spots on the list. Think Parsons should go but would like Jarvis, Freddie and Brownless to have another year. Tarca is really intriguing - probably on cusp of delist 8 weeks back but is finally fit and showing X factor qualities as small forward and a ‘burst’ midfielder.

- where/when to slot in SDK, Close and maybe Evans and Stephens. All seem to have potential - Condition and form will be the determinants but other decisions on the list will be key to opportunities.

And those draft picks - need or best available players?

Big decisions for Scott, Wells and co.
 
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Looking further - a post Selwood, Henderson team

B: Bews, DeKoning, O’Connor
HB: Clark, ........... , Stewart
C: Menegola, Duncan, ..........
HF: Simpson, Cameron, ........
F: Miers, Hawkins, Dangerfield

Foll: Stanley, Parfitt, Guthrie

Int: Henry, Fogarty, Stephens, Blicavs

Need more run. And elite ball users.
Krueger CHB, Narkle Wing (he is harder than most on this board think), Tarca or new draftee FF, dont agree with Fogarty on bench(think he will be part of Cameron trade) and Miers no good under pressure (decision making, disposal, selfish), so would need to improve bigtime.
 

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Defence: Up and down year neither good neither bad, In strength is also our weakness the defence do a great job at stopping goals but dont rebound nearly enough which has us playing slow tempo at times, Scarlett needs to develop the backline further.

Henderson had a brilliant year took a while to get in the side but forced his way via great form and stayed
Taylor we all love but he looks like a truck in a F1 race and has to or be forced to call it a day
Stewart injury after r4 looked to have taken its toll but had a brilliant finals series and looks back to his best
Kolo gets the tough jobs week in and out and has meet with some success but really needs help
Henry Hasn't developed as we would like and not sure if he really is a defender panics under pressure and has poor disposal needs big 2021
Bews & MOC both very good stoppers but create almost no run going forward cant carry both in 2021, credit to MOC has made big strides in 2020
Blitz tough roll and hard to access gets played everywhere again not a bad year but poor finals series hurt a little

Moving forward we have a few options with Tuohy and Clark as options and with Taylor retiring we could see Blitz play back more to help Hendo, the future will see DeKoning being developed for a key defender post but its a wait and see where his best position is.

Midfield: A very good year only lowered their colours in 3-4 games and saw the emergence of Guthrie and Mengola whilst allowing Danger to go forward and the skip missing large parts allowed the youth to get more time, the only little downside is the spread from the contest and our disposal when breaking forward.
Duncan Very good year and even better finals series
Guthrie Really solid and consistent year one of the most improved players
Selwood Looked good when he played but you get the feeling father time is catching up, great captain but now needs to spend time teaching the youth
Danger At times exceptional and other times goes missing average year by Danger standards but still good
Mengola looked at the cross roads end of last year but credit he turned that form on its head and had a very good year
Parfitt some good signs got more mid minutes and started to look more like a full time mid
Steven Looked cooked and may be a mistake from the club taking him on needs a massive pre season to justify his selection

Moving on we are a bit thin in genuine mids Cooper Stephens may have an impact and the club did give games to Fogarty Narkle Constable but all 3 could be on the trade table leaving the club very thin and using Half forwards to fill any gap, Look to the team drafting one in

Fowards: Good year scored well but when the pressure was on couldn't kick a score few changes will need to be made but contracts could hamper too much change
Hawk after a slow start killed the comp this year to be the premier big forward but needs help and that could be coming
Rohan best asset is his defensive pressure had a good year but is a down hill skier and goes missing in big games
Tuohy At the crossroads with club not sure of his best position a solid year up too his crunch in the ribs then went missing a bit
Ablett Still had some magic and his kicking will be missed but made the right decision to retire
Simpson one of the most improved players, year looked to be over after injury but made a surprise finals cameo and was solid
Close came into the team and did well for a 1st year player has good defensive skills but needs to learn to score
Atkins went backwards this year and not sure he will be more than a role player big pre season needed
Dalhaus Another at the cross roads just doesnt do enough to justify his position needs a big 2021
Fogarty Played few games did well but could be on the trade table

Moving on Hawk could finally get the help he needs in the form of Cameron but deal still needs to be conducted, with a few lads in waiting competition will be fierce for spots in 2021

Ruck Above average for the cats when Stanley did play did really well but lack of depth still an issue
Stanley Injury hurt his season but when he did play looked good and well held his own
Sav Just needs the club to work out his best position not great in the ruck and not great as a forward could easily be tradeable
Fort Needs to find a new club wont get any opportunities

Moving on The club needs to draft in a young or mature ruckman as our stocks just arent their when Stanley goes down bit of a trouble spot for the club since Ottens retired 10 years ago.

Most improved Players MOC, Guthrie, Mengola and Simpson

Players in trouble Nakia, Parsons, Brownless, Fort

Tradable players Narkle, Constable, Sav, Henry, Fogarty

Hard to fault the lads on a good year still think the cats 3-5 best team in the comp on talent and GF conditions didnt suit our game style, but changes will be needed if we are to back up in 2021 Lack of composure when under pressure and kicking skills need to be addressed in the off season and with Cameron potentially coming in our Forward set up will be better just need the forwards to find consistency in big games, but the future is bright with quite few of last year draft crop to play at any level and add in this years bound to be some surprises.
 
Defence: Up and down year neither good neither bad, In strength is also our weakness the defence do a great job at stopping goals but dont rebound nearly enough which has us playing slow tempo at times, Scarlett needs to develop the backline further.

Henderson had a brilliant year took a while to get in the side but forced his way via great form and stayed
Taylor we all love but he looks like a truck in a F1 race and has to or be forced to call it a day
Stewart injury after r4 looked to have taken its toll but had a brilliant finals series and looks back to his best
Kolo gets the tough jobs week in and out and has meet with some success but really needs help
Henry Hasn't developed as we would like and not sure if he really is a defender panics under pressure and has poor disposal needs big 2021
Bews & MOC both very good stoppers but create almost no run going forward cant carry both in 2021, credit to MOC has made big strides in 2020
Blitz tough roll and hard to access gets played everywhere again not a bad year but poor finals series hurt a little

Moving forward we have a few options with Tuohy and Clark as options and with Taylor retiring we could see Blitz play back more to help Hendo, the future will see DeKoning being developed for a key defender post but its a wait and see where his best position is.

Midfield: A very good year only lowered their colours in 3-4 games and saw the emergence of Guthrie and Mengola whilst allowing Danger to go forward and the skip missing large parts allowed the youth to get more time, the only little downside is the spread from the contest and our disposal when breaking forward.
Duncan Very good year and even better finals series
Guthrie Really solid and consistent year one of the most improved players
Selwood Looked good when he played but you get the feeling father time is catching up, great captain but now needs to spend time teaching the youth
Danger At times exceptional and other times goes missing average year by Danger standards but still good
Mengola looked at the cross roads end of last year but credit he turned that form on its head and had a very good year
Parfitt some good signs got more mid minutes and started to look more like a full time mid
Steven Looked cooked and may be a mistake from the club taking him on needs a massive pre season to justify his selection

Moving on we are a bit thin in genuine mids Cooper Stephens may have an impact and the club did give games to Fogarty Narkle Constable but all 3 could be on the trade table leaving the club very thin and using Half forwards to fill any gap, Look to the team drafting one in

Fowards: Good year scored well but when the pressure was on couldn't kick a score few changes will need to be made but contracts could hamper too much change
Hawk after a slow start killed the comp this year to be the premier big forward but needs help and that could be coming
Rohan best asset is his defensive pressure had a good year but is a down hill skier and goes missing in big games
Tuohy At the crossroads with club not sure of his best position a solid year up too his crunch in the ribs then went missing a bit
Ablett Still had some magic and his kicking will be missed but made the right decision to retire
Simpson one of the most improved players, year looked to be over after injury but made a surprise finals cameo and was solid
Close came into the team and did well for a 1st year player has good defensive skills but needs to learn to score
Atkins went backwards this year and not sure he will be more than a role player big pre season needed
Dalhaus Another at the cross roads just doesnt do enough to justify his position needs a big 2021
Fogarty Played few games did well but could be on the trade table

Moving on Hawk could finally get the help he needs in the form of Cameron but deal still needs to be conducted, with a few lads in waiting competition will be fierce for spots in 2021

Ruck Above average for the cats when Stanley did play did really well but lack of depth still an issue
Stanley Injury hurt his season but when he did play looked good and well held his own
Sav Just needs the club to work out his best position not great in the ruck and not great as a forward could easily be tradeable
Fort Needs to find a new club wont get any opportunities

Moving on The club needs to draft in a young or mature ruckman as our stocks just arent their when Stanley goes down bit of a trouble spot for the club since Ottens retired 10 years ago.

Most improved Players MOC, Guthrie, Mengola and Simpson

Players in trouble Nakia, Parsons, Brownless, Fort

Tradable players Narkle, Constable, Sav, Henry, Fogarty

Hard to fault the lads on a good year still think the cats 3-5 best team in the comp on talent and GF conditions didnt suit our game style, but changes will be needed if we are to back up in 2021 Lack of composure when under pressure and kicking skills need to be addressed in the off season and with Cameron potentially coming in our Forward set up will be better just need the forwards to find consistency in big games, but the future is bright with quite few of last year draft crop to play at any level and add in this years bound to be some surprises.

good thorough post; didn’t agree with every single point but bang on for the most part..
 
Krueger CHB, Narkle Wing (he is harder than most on this board think), Tarca or new draftee FF, dont agree with Fogarty on bench(think he will be part of Cameron trade) and Miers no good under pressure (decision making, disposal, selfish), so would need to improve bigtime.

I've left spaces for the spots that are uncertain. Included Stephens and Fogarty on account of their draft positions but they too are ?
 
Tradable players Narkle, Constable, Sav, Henry, Fogarty
I think we can add Jordan Clark to the list. He may be the sacrificial lamb for the Cameron deal, and we got by without him this season. Herald Sun reported on Saturday we may trade him to Freo for a high pick which we could then use as part of the Cameron trade.
 
I've left spaces for the spots that are uncertain. Included Stephens and Fogarty on account of their draft positions but they too are ?
I think what you put out was a great template to expose where we are at. For example, it exposes the real tragedy of Nakia never being able to front up - he is the ideal winger/forward or even crazy run off half back. If he goes to Brisbane and plays consistently, then I'm happy for him, but not for our off field team and how it played out. If it looks like that may happen, why cant he stay with us and have a good year? Your template also exposes a range of players we need to make hard calls on. Nakia, is one, Parsons, Constable, Narkle, Fog, Brownless, etc. I also wanted to make sure we don't forget about Krueger. He is on the edge of playing Seniors having gotten over a few injuries this year (big body getting used to AFL), but he is a real player. Ive seen him live and he could be anything. Been a real quiet build but I am confident he can cut it at the next level and give us another big - with Cameron probably coming, it means he can focus on the backline (unless for some reason he could be a ruckman but I'm in the dark on that one). Also, the basic team looks like now but thinner in terms of grunt clearances, which is where Richmond and Port get us. Hoepfully Cooper Stephen is one to help but we will need a critical mass of players who can help.
 

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