Draft 2022 AFLW Draft Analysis - Slice of Pie

[PMBangers]

Carlton are in need of tall stock up forward. Is Bridie Hipwell their target with their first round pick?

As good as Hipwell is, she doesn't really play a traditional key forward role, so if a club is looking for a number 1 target I'd be shocked if they took her for it

 

[Arbiter]

As good as Hipwell is, she doesn't really play a traditional key forward role, so if a club is looking for a number 1 target I'd be shocked if they took her for it

We'll there does seem to be a shortage of tall timber and MacKenzie Eardley might be out of their reach. Does she not look like a good hit up target? She seems to lead well when she's playing that half forward flank despite the lack of goals.

 

[PMBangers]

We'll there does seem to be a shortage of tall timber and MacKenzie Eardley might be out of their reach. Does she not look like a good hit up target? She seems to lead well when she's playing that half forward flank despite the lack of goals.

Yeah that's her speciality, but I'm not sure how well she'd do in a team where she's the main target and forced to take pack marks, far better as a link up high half forward than as a main target heading inside 50.

 

[Arbiter]

Yeah that's her speciality, but I'm not sure how well she'd do in a team where she's the main target and forced to take pack marks, far better as a link up high half forward than as a main target heading inside 50.

You're on the money, she's not a main target but could make a great link in the chain with her size. If Carlton could trust Imogen Milford that could make a decent structure with Vescio and Jones to feed on the crumbs.

 

[Arbiter]

Looking at St Kilda, is Sofia Hurley a lock for pick 5 in the Vic draft considering how desperate they are for midfielders?

 

[Vacuous Space]

You're on the money, she's not a main target but could make a great link in the chain with her size. If Carlton could trust Imogen Milford that could make a decent structure with Vescio and Jones to feed on the crumbs.

Serena Gibbs is back in the VFLW and I get the impression that she was the one they wanted to use as the big, up front target this past season. Plans may have changed there, but they have so many holes that have opened up on their list that they're not going to be able to fill every one.

Fortunately, for them, they'll probably have a bunch of picks. They may wind up with Richmond's first in the Egan trade and who knows what's going to happen with expansion compensation. If there's any, you'd think they'll get the most, losing Prespakis and Gee. They'll get something off the Saints for Stevens, too.

Also worth keeping in mind that the Dogs are almost certain to wind up with a pick in front of the Blues current first in the Huntington deal. Given they're about to lose Toogood as well, Hipwell might make some sense at that pick.

 

[Vacuous Space]

Looking at St Kilda, is Sofia Hurley a lock for pick 5 in the Vic draft considering how desperate they are for midfielders?

I don't think the Saints need to go mid. The Saints list needs stars more than anything else. If the recruiters rate Eardley higher than any of the remaining mids, they should absolutely take her. It's probably going to be easier to find mids than a ~180cm defender who can kick. I'm totally fine with the idea of building from defence with Eardley and Friend and building a midfield around Smith, White and (hopefully, eventually) Patrikios.

 

[Arbiter]

Serena Gibbs is back in the VFLW and I get the impression that she was the one they wanted to use as the big, up front target this past season. Plans may have changed there, but they have so many holes that have opened up on their list that they're not going to be able to fill every one.

Fortunately, for them, they'll probably have a bunch of picks. They may wind up with Richmond's first in the Egan trade and who knows what's going to happen with expansion compensation. If there's any, you'd think they'll get the most, losing Prespakis and Gee. They'll get something off the Saints for Stevens, too.

Also worth keeping in mind that the Dogs are almost certain to wind up with a pick in front of the Blues current first in the Huntington deal. Given they're about to lose Toogood as well, Hipwell might make some sense at that pick.

Do you remember Collingwood's compensation for the loss of Jasmine Garner, Emma King, Jess Duffin, and Mo Hope? It wasn't much. AFL can be pricks when it comes to the expansion teams. For Stevens and Egan I imagine they will get some something, but what's their worth? Egan has not had the best year and I'm not sure Stevens is worth a first round pick. 50/50 perhaps on Stevens, it could go either way.

As for Huntington, the Giants will throw away their draft to get her. It makes sense, they have nothing to really gain from the NSW/ACT pool. The talent will be picked apart after the first round. That's why they are desperate to make the deal. And I also agree, Hipwell would fill a spot for WB, but she is a very different player to Toogood. However, they still have Gabby Newton to come back.

 

[Arbiter]

I don't think the Saints need to go mid. The Saints list needs stars more than anything else. If the recruiters rate Eardley higher than any of the remaining mids, they should absolutely take her. It's probably going to be easier to find mids than a ~180cm defender who can kick. I'm totally fine with the idea of building from defence with Eardley and Friend and building a midfield around Smith, White and (hopefully, eventually) Patrikios.

You could easily go that route. But either way, you can't lose from your position. Either Hurley or Eardley would be a great fit for St Kilda. As for Patrikios, I think it would be the saddest thing in AFLW if Georgia Patrikios does not return to the field. If this new pay rise doesn't entice her, I don't know what will.

 

[Vacuous Space]

Do you remember Collingwood's compensation for the loss of Jasmine Garner, Emma King, Jess Duffin, and Mo Hope? It wasn't much. AFL can be pricks when it comes to the expansion teams. For Stevens and Egan I imagine they will get some something, but what's their worth? Egan has not had the best year and I'm not sure Stevens is worth a first round pick. 50/50 perhaps on Stevens, it could go either way.

As for Huntington, the Giants will throw away their draft to get her. It makes sense, they have nothing to really gain from the NSW/ACT pool. The talent will be picked apart after the first round. That's why they are desperate to make the deal. And I also agree, Hipwell would fill a spot for WB, but she is a very different player to Toogood. However, they still have Gabby Newton to come back.

Pies got the Cann pick as compensation, which is probably more than the Blues will get, but it's still something. I don't think Stevens will attract much either. Egan's the one that might. They're probably going to be making a lot of picks on draft night, though, so they may have to get creative.

Newton has played mostly as an inside mid since being drafted. It's possible the Dogs could move her or Pritchard forward (or rotate them) to play as a tall target, but it's less than ideal. I don't think either one has ever kicked a goal at AFLW level. Hipwell being a more rangey type probably suits them fine, since they've already got Morris-Dalton and Cranston as marking targets. That said, I think the 7th or 8th Victorian pick is a bit early for Hipwell.

You could easily go that route. But either way, you can't lose from your position. Either Hurley or Eardley would be a great fit for St Kilda. As for Patrikios, I think it would be the saddest thing in AFLW if Georgia Patrikios does not return to the field. If this new pay rise doesn't entice her, I don't know what will.

I agree with the first part. The only way the Saints mess up pick 10 is if they don't use it. I'm a little worried that they're going to trade down to accommodate all the trades for incoming recruits.

I don't think Patrikios is moved by money, though. I think it's going to take a change in vaccine rules to get her back and I don't see them removing those requirements in the women's while they're still in place for the men's comp. I'm still a little paranoid that when she does eventually return, she'll want to do it somewhere else. It could be years, though, and who knows if she's the same player if she comes back after a long layoff.

 

[Arbiter]

Hipwell being a more rangey type probably suits them fine, since they've already got Morris-Dalton and Cranston as marking targets. That said, I think the 7th or 8th Victorian pick is a bit early for Hipwell.

Interesting. Like Draft Central I believe the top four will most likely be Montana Ham, Amber Clarke, Zarlie Goldsworthy, and Jasmine Fleming (In that order). Sofia Hurley and Mackenzie Eardley make likely' s for the top six. It's when we continue forward that things get tricky. I brought up Hipwell because I thought she would be a decent size tall forward for what Carlton are lacking. But who do you think is in that next best crop? Keeley, Baskaran perhaps? I like a fresh opinion.

 

[Vacuous Space]

Interesting. Like Draft Central I believe the top four will most likely be Montana Ham, Amber Clarke, Zarlie Goldsworthy, and Jasmine Fleming (In that order). Sofia Hurley and Mackenzie Eardley make likely' s for the top six. It's when we continue forward that things get tricky. I brought up Hipwell because I thought she would be a decent size tall forward for what Carlton are lacking. But who do you think is in that next best crop? Keeley, Baskaran perhaps? I like a fresh opinion.

Ham's the clear number one at this point - I don't think that's controversial. Baskaran, Clarke, Fleming, Goldsworthy and Hurley are all close enough that it's just going to come down to what attributes you prefer. Eardley could go anywhere in that mix if somebody wants a tall. If all those players are gone, I'm probably taking Charley Ryan next, even with the injury. I'd take Charlotte Taylor before Hipwell if I was going to take a tall. It's controversial now, but I like Paige Scott.

We should get an actual combine this year, though, and my understanding is that Hipwell has a huge tank. So, I wouldn't be that surprised if she goes higher than I'm suggesting here. Carlton, in particular, has taken a lot of girls with great time trial results. I'm more biased by what they've done at NAB League level and the champs. Clubs do a lot more projecting. So, I expect to be way off in terms of the actual order, but that's how I see it right now.

 

[Teen Wolf]

GWS will want a 2nd rounder for Erin McKinnon, like they got for Elle Bennetts. St Kilda, unless they get some decent draft assistance (which they've asked for), would then have to find another 2nd round pick from somewhere to trade for Nicola Stevens, or give up their 1st pick to get her. No way Carlton are settling for a 3rd round pick.

On that basis alone there's a good chance Carlton's 1st pick will be higher than what the Bulldogs get for Huntington, though she has made her intentions fully known whereas Stevens' are still not 100% clear at this stage.

Plus there's also the question mark around Courtney Jones. Extremely plausible that Gold Coast, in a draft zone all to themselves, would be willing to cough up their 1st pick for Carlton's leading goal-kicker this year.

Do you remember Collingwood's compensation for the loss of Jasmine Garner, Emma King, Jess Duffin, and Mo Hope? It wasn't much.

Pies got the Cann pick as compensation, which is probably more than the Blues will get, but it's still something.

Factoring in age/quality/accolades of the player, the only vague precedence for Prespakis joining an expansion club is Monique Conti's move to Richmond. The rules, set out well in advance, conveniently led to the Bulldogs receiving pick 1 for her.

Given there are no rules yet this time around, the AFL can easily ensure a similar scenario plays out for Carlton, and I'll be quite surprised if that opportunity isn't taken.

I'd also bet anything that Carlton are getting a 1st rounder for Egan. If all my guesses are right, it means they go into the national draft with picks 1, 10, 12, 13 and 15 (unless they are able to trade some of those for players). That's currently 1, 5, 7, 8 and 10 in the Vic draft--could turn out be even better, like if Geelong give away their 1st to West Coast for Mikayla Bowen, though reports about her seem to have simmered down.

 

[Arbiter]

Plus there's also the question mark around Courtney Jones. Extremely plausible that Gold Coast, in a draft zone all to themselves, would be willing to cough up their 1st pick for Carlton's leading goal-kicker this year.

Courtney Jones is new information. Anybody else new on the Moneyball?

 

[Teen Wolf]

Courtney Jones is new information. Anybody else new on the Moneyball?

Reported at around the same time (though it was a few days ago now): Kate McCarthy considering interest from a number of clubs, Amber Ward to Adelaide, Jamie Stanton remaining at the Suns, Chloe Scheer staying at Geelong (knocked back Port).

 

[Arbiter]

Reported at around the same time (though it was a few days ago now): Kate McCarthy considering interest from a number of clubs, Amber Ward to Adelaide, Jamie Stanton remaining at the Suns, Chloe Scheer staying at Geelong (knocked back Port).

Cheers mate. Ward makes sense since she's an SA talent. McCarthy I believe is originally a Queensland talent, she might go back home. Scheer is to be happy at Geelong as is Stanton at Gold Coast. Any news on Maggie Caris? Hasn't played too many AFLW/VFLW games this year, I imagine she's on the trade table?

 

[Arbiter]

Does anybody have a Moneyball update?

 

[Arbiter]

Can somebody explain this point system to me for the expansion? I've just been reading the posts of AFLW where clubs can be stripped of their first round picks if they don't lose enough players/points. Thank God this is the last time the AFL can pull this s**t (unless NT and Tas get a team) because it seems like a joke. If clubs that finish in the previous top seven lose four players, does that make up the points to keep their first round pick? It seems so confusing, if somebody could simplify I'd really appreciate it.

 

[cmndstab]

Can somebody explain this point system to me for the expansion? I've just been reading the posts of AFLW where clubs can be stripped of their first round picks if they don't lose enough players/points. Thank God this is the last time the AFL can pull this s**t (unless NT and Tas get a team) because it seems like a joke. If clubs that finish in the previous top seven lose four players, does that make up the points to keep their first round pick? It seems so confusing, if somebody could simplify I'd really appreciate it.

There's not a whole lot of clarity about it yet.

Every time a club loses a player as an expansion signing (as opposed to a trade), that player will be worth a certain number of points. The points are determined by their age, games played, awards won, and payment tier, but at this stage the formula has not been made public. If the club doesn't lose at least 28 points worth as expansion signings, they don't get their first round pick.

To only indication given so far in terms of the formula for points is the following quote from the article on womens.afl:

For example, a club can reach that 28-point threshold by only losing a couple of highly rated players, while another might lose several players who each attract a lower points valuation.

So apparently two highly-rated players adds up to 28 points. Beyond that, we don't know.

 

[Arbiter]

Kate Bartlett. Can the experts please tell me how this young women is not on a list? WAFLW leading goal scorer 2021, 2022, All Australian u18 2016, All Australian squad 2017. When she was in the AFLW, she only played one game for the Western Bulldogs and none for West Coast who are screaming for key forwards.

 

[Biggie]

Kate Bartlett. Can the experts please tell me how this young women is not on a list? WAFLW leading goal scorer 2021, 2022, All Australian u18 2016, All Australian squad 2017. When she was in the AFLW, she only played one game for the Western Bulldogs and none for West Coast who are screaming for key forwards.

Her defensive efforts and training work ethic was poor.

She may have leaned from that

 

[Arbiter]

Her defensive efforts and training work ethic was poor.

Was that ever reported? I'm a Vic man myself, I'll take the word of a bloke from Perth. Still I believe patience would have been more rewarding for West Coast than delisting Bartlett.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Was that ever reported? I'm a Vic man myself, I'll take the word of a bloke from Perth. Still I believe patience would have been more rewarding for West Coast than delisting Bartlett.

Give it a month.

 

[Arbiter]

Give it a month.

Where do you see Bartlett slotting into the draft, second round maybe?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Where do you see Bartlett slotting into the draft, second round maybe?

Nah I highly doubt she'll go that high. I expect Eagles will take her with a later pick as they'll have more spots to fill. Should be about nine by the time the draft rolls around. Don't think Freo will have as many (but could be wrong depending on trade period).