Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[Soaring Hawk]

Archer Reid would be nice for us if we could nab a 2nd 1st rounder.

Anyone think we will bid on Jed Walter? I hope we do. Sun's will match in a flash but he's got what we need.

A Reid’s kicking style is not ideal. Doesn’t look like a reliable set shot. Think he’ll end up being a ruck more than a forward too.

Yep, I’d bid on Walter. Worth the shot at getting him. Gold Coast will match immediately tho. He was a big body kid playing in the nationals last year, and had that real hunger. Didn’t see him live this year, but he’s going to be a very imposing forward.


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[Soaring Hawk]

Lol people are writing off Caddy after 1 poor game and abit of a attitude. So what, You think Sicily was a choir boy in his early career? Caddy has kicked multiple goals in nearly every game this year and handled himself quite well in Carltons vfl squad. Durrsma and A.Reid play 1 good game and are bring touted as a better fwd option than Caddy? Consistent performances are being overlooked here

He fumbles too much in the games I’ve seen. Thumping kick, but not always accurate or great in the field. Just doesn’t appear to be a top echelon forward.


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[kenneje]

Like Charlie Curnow

35

Charlie Curnow

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

, I reckon someone will pick Caddy up at around pick 10-15 and walk away with an absolute bargain. Hope it's us!

 

[Soaring Hawk]

Reckon Murphy may rise a little more. Promising prospect.

Not sure on I’d have Tholstrup that high.


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[Judd2Sewell]

Seems like there are quite a few exciting options announcing themselves that will be available to us.

 

[MasterSamurai]

People need to have more faith in Caddy. Has that match winning unpredictability. Can also play higher up the field if needed. Ahead of duursma for mine.

 

[I got the outside word]

Is it possible (without including Walter) that the draft could go:

1. Curtin
2. Reid
3. Watson

 

[noobermensch]

 

[danielG]

Seems like there are quite a few exciting options announcing themselves that will be available to us.we

We seemingly sit in the sweet spot on the draft ladder after being just outside a few times now..the guys announcing themselves seem to fit our needs too, which always helps.. I’m torn on Watson and McKercher.
I was thinking McKercher might be a bit of the same as our other recent draftees but his play in the last two weeks proved he has something we really lack.. His goal on the weekend showed amazing acceleration. We don’t have a player on our list that could have made that play, and he’s doing it consistently.. Watson has that same game breaking ability so for me, we get one of those two and grab McCabe who shows great promise and we’ll walk away well placed… Would love a gun key forward to help Lewis but that will have to wait..

 

[Brishawk]

This is pretty similar to his game v WA.

Pros:
1. Is very quick and agile. Huge acceleration.
2. Is an excellent kick for goal. Nails them from everywhere.
3. Doesn't need much space and his speed and agility will allow him to get his shot off.
4. Reads the ball in flight really well.
5. Very smart player in terms of positioning.

Cons/concerns:
1. He primarily got the ball leading up at the ball carrier or as a deep forward target. he kicked a lot of goals this past two games so it works at under 18 level but will it work at AFL level? In both lead ups and when playing deep, he is afforded a lot of space to work with. I don't think he gets so much space at AFL level. He plays much like Charlie Cameron and even Cameron, with his elite speed and play reading, doesn't just get shot on goal again and again taking uncontested marks on a lead. He gets them but he also spends most of his time fighting an opponent for position in one-v-one situations. The defenders at under 18 level aren't testing this aspect of his game and I don't think he will be able to keep his distance and dance around the defender with the ball in flight at afl level like he can in under 18 level. Not consistently anyway.

Even where he uses his ability to read the ball in flight and take the defender under the ball, is he going to consistently do that at AFL level where the defenders are simply bigger and better? It just makes things harder for him to get the ball and find the space he needs to do his best work. It also means that long kicks down the line to him may not be as effective as they are when the lions kick to Cameron. He will need to diversify away from plan A and be more focussed on crumbing to talls than being the target. Will he be as effective doing so?

2. I have concerns over his tackling/willingness to tackle. At his speed, why isn't he the first in to tackle more? Will he be able to stick tackles consistently at AFL level? I think maybe part of the story is that he wats to duck out the back and get on the end of the ball rather than get in and tackle. In any case, you can kick goals at afl level like that but a smart defender can exploit it the other way. I think he will need to adjust.

3. His production is low. Compared with recent top 5 pick, Josh Rachelle, Watson gets the ball far less. Taking Watson early is essentially saying he is going to be an elite goal kicker because he has less ways of impacting the game compared to how Rachelle projected at the same stage. At least in the way that Watson currently plays.

4. I'm not enamoured by his contested ball winning and ball use under physical pressure. The way he goes to ground and pops the ball out will likely be exploited at AFL level.

To me he projects as a 30 goal per year small forward. It's possible he becomes a better player than that but there is a lot of downside risk to him as he will need to change his game. Lots of examples of pure goal kickers who went on to struggle at afl level. Close to home, Hardwick kicked 56 goals at Coates level (3.5 goals per game which is about 1 goal per game more than Watson kicks at Coates level) and has 8 career goals to his name. Some of you may remember Matt Little was a goal kicking machine that couldn't get a game at AFL level for Hawthorn. Fergus Greene is a different plater at VFL level. Going back to Rachelle, still early days but he has gone from 2.8 goals per game at Coates level to around 1.1 goals a game at AFL level. He will likely improve on that but the transition to AFL is not easy as a small goal kicker.

Typically, the top of the draft is dominated by guys who are on average more ready to play AFL and who carry less risk...or who are tall and athletic. If Watson isn't an elite goal kicker at AFL level, what is he? Not a mid. Can he be a pressure forward? It's not the core of his game now. He has the speed but does he have everything else he needs? Its uncertain. Hence, I have to pass on him at 3. I'm prepared to be unpopular and accept many good judges of players see it differently. Just calling out what I see.

 

[TheFourPillars]

This is pretty similar to his game v WA.

Pros:
1. Is very quick and agile. Huge acceleration.
2. Is an excellent kick for goal. Nails them from everywhere.
3. Doesn't need much space and his speed and agility will allow him to get his shot off.
4. Reads the ball in flight really well.
5. Very smart player in terms of positioning.

Cons/concerns:
1. He primarily got the ball leading up at the ball carrier or as a deep forward target. he kicked a lot of goals this past two games so it works at under 18 level but will it work at AFL level? In both lead ups and when playing deep, he is afforded a lot of space to work with. I don't think he gets so much space at AFL level. He plays much like Charlie Cameron and even Cameron, with his elite speed and play reading, doesn't just get shot on goal again and again taking uncontested marks on a lead. He gets them but he also spends most of his time fighting an opponent for position in one-v-one situations. The defenders at under 18 level aren't testing this aspect of his game and I don't think he will be able to keep his distance and dance around the defender with the ball in flight at afl level like he can in under 18 level. Not consistently anyway.

Even where he uses his ability to read the ball in flight and take the defender under the ball, is he going to consistently do that at AFL level where the defenders are simply bigger and better? It just makes things harder for him to get the ball and find the space he needs to do his best work. It also means that long kicks down the line to him may not be as effective as they are when the lions kick to Cameron. He will need to diversify away from plan A and be more focussed on crumbing to talls than being the target. Will he be as effective doing so?

2. I have concerns over his tackling/willingness to tackle. At his speed, why isn't he the first in to tackle more? Will he be able to stick tackles consistently at AFL level? I think maybe part of the story is that he wats to duck out the back and get on the end of the ball rather than get in and tackle. In any case, you can kick goals at afl level like that but a smart defender can exploit it the other way. I think he will need to adjust.

3. His production is low. Compared with recent top 5 pick, Josh Rachelle, Watson gets the ball far less. Taking Watson early is essentially saying he is going to be an elite goal kicker because he has less ways of impacting the game compared to how Rachelle projected at the same stage. At least in the way that Watson currently plays.

4. I'm not enamoured by his contested ball winning and ball use under physical pressure. The way he goes to ground and pops the ball out will likely be exploited at AFL level.

To me he projects as a 30 goal per year small forward. It's possible he becomes a better player than that but there is a lot of downside risk to him as he will need to change his game. Lots of examples of pure goal kickers who went on to struggle at afl level. Close to home, Hardwick kicked 56 goals at Coates level (3.5 goals per game which is about 1 goal per game more than Watson kicks at Coates level) and has 8 career goals to his name. Some of you may remember Matt Little was a goal kicking machine that couldn't get a game at AFL level for Hawthorn. Fergus Greene is a different plater at VFL level. Going back to Rachelle, still early days but he has gone from 2.8 goals per game at Coates level to around 1.1 goals a game at AFL level. He will likely improve on that but the transition to AFL is not easy as a small goal kicker.

Typically, the top of the draft is dominated by guys who are on average more ready to play AFL and who carry less risk...or who are tall and athletic. If Watson isn't an elite goal kicker at AFL level, what is he? Not a mid. Can he be a pressure forward? It's not the core of his game now. He has the speed but does he have everything else he needs? Its uncertain. Hence, I have to pass on him at 3. I'm prepared to be unpopular and accept many good judges of players see it differently. Just calling out what I see.

Wow there is a lot of stuff in there that I do not agree with, but I respect your opinion. I still believe we will take him if he is available at our pick, and he will be great player for us. Two things I can say straight away that he has on Cameron are that he is great overhead, and he has a tank to play in the middle of the ground. If he is struggling forward, we can push him further up field to use his speed at stoppages. He is an impact player and a goal kicker something we sorely lack at the moment.

 

[Billyc]

Wow there is a lot of stuff in there that I do not agree with, but I respect your opinion. I still believe we will take him if he is available at our pick, and he will be great player for us. Two things I can say straight away that he has on Cameron are that he is great overhead, and he has a tank to play in the middle of the ground. If he is struggling forward, we can push him further up field to use his speed at stoppages. He is an impact player and a goal kicker something we sorely lack at the moment.

Midfield at 170cm is the part I am not convinced of. It just hasn't happened in a long time at senior level and midfielders get bigger by the year.

But I don't think we need another midfielder as much as we need players who can hit the scoreboard anyway. As a small forward I think he can succeed despite his size as he seems to get scoring opportunities a number of different ways: lead out mark, high tackles and milking free kicks, crumbing, weaving through traffic and he's a dead eye. I am interested in hearing more about his forward pressure though as that's obviously an important part of that role at AFL level.

 

[H00t]

This is pretty similar to his game v WA.

Pros:
1. Is very quick and agile. Huge acceleration.
2. Is an excellent kick for goal. Nails them from everywhere.
3. Doesn't need much space and his speed and agility will allow him to get his shot off.
4. Reads the ball in flight really well.
5. Very smart player in terms of positioning.

Cons/concerns:
1. He primarily got the ball leading up at the ball carrier or as a deep forward target. he kicked a lot of goals this past two games so it works at under 18 level but will it work at AFL level? In both lead ups and when playing deep, he is afforded a lot of space to work with. I don't think he gets so much space at AFL level. He plays much like Charlie Cameron and even Cameron, with his elite speed and play reading, doesn't just get shot on goal again and again taking uncontested marks on a lead. He gets them but he also spends most of his time fighting an opponent for position in one-v-one situations. The defenders at under 18 level aren't testing this aspect of his game and I don't think he will be able to keep his distance and dance around the defender with the ball in flight at afl level like he can in under 18 level. Not consistently anyway.

Even where he uses his ability to read the ball in flight and take the defender under the ball, is he going to consistently do that at AFL level where the defenders are simply bigger and better? It just makes things harder for him to get the ball and find the space he needs to do his best work. It also means that long kicks down the line to him may not be as effective as they are when the lions kick to Cameron. He will need to diversify away from plan A and be more focussed on crumbing to talls than being the target. Will he be as effective doing so?

2. I have concerns over his tackling/willingness to tackle. At his speed, why isn't he the first in to tackle more? Will he be able to stick tackles consistently at AFL level? I think maybe part of the story is that he wats to duck out the back and get on the end of the ball rather than get in and tackle. In any case, you can kick goals at afl level like that but a smart defender can exploit it the other way. I think he will need to adjust.

3. His production is low. Compared with recent top 5 pick, Josh Rachelle, Watson gets the ball far less. Taking Watson early is essentially saying he is going to be an elite goal kicker because he has less ways of impacting the game compared to how Rachelle projected at the same stage. At least in the way that Watson currently plays.

4. I'm not enamoured by his contested ball winning and ball use under physical pressure. The way he goes to ground and pops the ball out will likely be exploited at AFL level.

To me he projects as a 30 goal per year small forward. It's possible he becomes a better player than that but there is a lot of downside risk to him as he will need to change his game. Lots of examples of pure goal kickers who went on to struggle at afl level. Close to home, Hardwick kicked 56 goals at Coates level (3.5 goals per game which is about 1 goal per game more than Watson kicks at Coates level) and has 8 career goals to his name. Some of you may remember Matt Little was a goal kicking machine that couldn't get a game at AFL level for Hawthorn. Fergus Greene is a different plater at VFL level. Going back to Rachelle, still early days but he has gone from 2.8 goals per game at Coates level to around 1.1 goals a game at AFL level. He will likely improve on that but the transition to AFL is not easy as a small goal kicker.

Typically, the top of the draft is dominated by guys who are on average more ready to play AFL and who carry less risk...or who are tall and athletic. If Watson isn't an elite goal kicker at AFL level, what is he? Not a mid. Can he be a pressure forward? It's not the core of his game now. He has the speed but does he have everything else he needs? Its uncertain. Hence, I have to pass on him at 3. I'm prepared to be unpopular and accept many good judges of players see it differently. Just calling out what I see.

He definitely has the ability to do some elite things.

Probably my biggest concern is how he’s going to go in a crowded forward line at AFL when he has space I can see him being damaging with his speed. I’m not sure he will be able to create space though and get the ball with defenders pushing back.

I would really love to see him play some VFL football to see how he goes against men.

He has some attributes to be really good but he’s also got some decent downsides as well.

 

[Brishawk]

Wow there is a lot of stuff in there that I do not agree with, but I respect your opinion. I still believe we will take him if he is available at our pick, and he will be great player for us. Two things I can say straight away that he has on Cameron are that he is great overhead, and he has a tank to play in the middle of the ground. If he is struggling forward, we can push him further up field to use his speed at stoppages. He is an impact player and a goal kicker something we sorely lack at the moment.

Just to explain (without wanting to contest your own opinion, which I respect), I have no doubt that he could go into the centre for a centre bounce and no doubts on his fitness or athleticism. He could be a weapon out of the centre because of the space and his speed. Just need Ned to hit it to space. ITs more that in around the ground stoppages, the congestion is such that his speed and agility matter less. And from what I see of his handballing in that kind of congestion, I don't think he is putting players into space unless it is a very inclose give (which often don't come off). He really needs to be the one running into space to hurt the opposition. Its not that I think he can't do it, its that I think there is a risk he won't be regularly effective enough doing it because opposition defenders will just push him in towards the contest to take away his speed advantage.

In terms of the marking, I have no doubt that if Watson is free to run at the ball he is going to jump on the heads of AFL players. But I also think AFL defenders won't give him many opportunities to do that. Mostly, they will put a body on him and force him to compete in a body on body contest for the mark. That is how Hardwick plays 'similar' players whom he gives up speed to. And it works well. In a body on body contest, Watson isn't going to be as good as Cameron. Cameron is ok at marking them but excels at positioning himself to bring the ball down to his own advantage. Lions can kick it to him with confidence.

Against WA Watson was in a one v one marking contest. He and the defender battled hard for position and both went to ground as Watson attempted to mark. Watson bounces up, grabs the ball and kicks the goal. Amazing! But I think about how an AFL defender handles that situation and I suspect they either don't go to ground or they get a fist in and clear the ball. The chances of Watson Turning that opportunity into a goal are going to be less and he is going to be in that situation at a higher rate at AFL level. hence, achieving 2 goals a game or more for him will be tough.

Its all just my projection and he will probably prove me wrong (I hope he does as he is amazing to watch) but I can't ignore the downside risk against other players who seem to have a game that is more likely to translate into a strong AFL game. Take McKercher. If he doesn't make it as an inside mid he can probably still be an excellent outside mid or maybe even a HFF. So I judge McKercher as having less downside risk but still a very high upside. Doesn't mean McKercher will be a better player but I don't think speculating (taking on higher risk) at pick 3 is wise given the strength of the top ten players (particularly the top 5). By contrast, I had concerns about Will Philips inside game. I thought he regularly went into contest with no exit plan and tended to dump the ball out. Got away with it at Coatses level but I didn't think it would stack up at AFL level and I felt if he didn't make it as an inside mid I thought he lacked the game to be good as a HFF etc. He may well become a great inside mid but I had to discount his draft position because of those risks. Fortunately, North did us a solid and took him first leaving us with DGB

TLDR;

So in summary, I think he can be everything you say I just differ from you on the downside risk on how his game translates to AFL.

 

[robiecampbellbrown]

This is pretty similar to his game v WA.

Pros:
1. Is very quick and agile. Huge acceleration.
2. Is an excellent kick for goal. Nails them from everywhere.
3. Doesn't need much space and his speed and agility will allow him to get his shot off.
4. Reads the ball in flight really well.
5. Very smart player in terms of positioning.

Cons/concerns:
1. He primarily got the ball leading up at the ball carrier or as a deep forward target. he kicked a lot of goals this past two games so it works at under 18 level but will it work at AFL level? In both lead ups and when playing deep, he is afforded a lot of space to work with. I don't think he gets so much space at AFL level. He plays much like Charlie Cameron and even Cameron, with his elite speed and play reading, doesn't just get shot on goal again and again taking uncontested marks on a lead. He gets them but he also spends most of his time fighting an opponent for position in one-v-one situations. The defenders at under 18 level aren't testing this aspect of his game and I don't think he will be able to keep his distance and dance around the defender with the ball in flight at afl level like he can in under 18 level. Not consistently anyway.

Even where he uses his ability to read the ball in flight and take the defender under the ball, is he going to consistently do that at AFL level where the defenders are simply bigger and better? It just makes things harder for him to get the ball and find the space he needs to do his best work. It also means that long kicks down the line to him may not be as effective as they are when the lions kick to Cameron. He will need to diversify away from plan A and be more focussed on crumbing to talls than being the target. Will he be as effective doing so?

2. I have concerns over his tackling/willingness to tackle. At his speed, why isn't he the first in to tackle more? Will he be able to stick tackles consistently at AFL level? I think maybe part of the story is that he wats to duck out the back and get on the end of the ball rather than get in and tackle. In any case, you can kick goals at afl level like that but a smart defender can exploit it the other way. I think he will need to adjust.

3. His production is low. Compared with recent top 5 pick, Josh Rachelle, Watson gets the ball far less. Taking Watson early is essentially saying he is going to be an elite goal kicker because he has less ways of impacting the game compared to how Rachelle projected at the same stage. At least in the way that Watson currently plays.

4. I'm not enamoured by his contested ball winning and ball use under physical pressure. The way he goes to ground and pops the ball out will likely be exploited at AFL level.

To me he projects as a 30 goal per year small forward. It's possible he becomes a better player than that but there is a lot of downside risk to him as he will need to change his game. Lots of examples of pure goal kickers who went on to struggle at afl level. Close to home, Hardwick kicked 56 goals at Coates level (3.5 goals per game which is about 1 goal per game more than Watson kicks at Coates level) and has 8 career goals to his name. Some of you may remember Matt Little was a goal kicking machine that couldn't get a game at AFL level for Hawthorn. Fergus Greene is a different plater at VFL level. Going back to Rachelle, still early days but he has gone from 2.8 goals per game at Coates level to around 1.1 goals a game at AFL level. He will likely improve on that but the transition to AFL is not easy as a small goal kicker.

Typically, the top of the draft is dominated by guys who are on average more ready to play AFL and who carry less risk...or who are tall and athletic. If Watson isn't an elite goal kicker at AFL level, what is he? Not a mid. Can he be a pressure forward? It's not the core of his game now. He has the speed but does he have everything else he needs? Its uncertain. Hence, I have to pass on him at 3. I'm prepared to be unpopular and accept many good judges of players see it differently. Just calling out what I see.

You had me at 2 after yesterday’s game

 

[noobermensch]

Caddy had an almost game, presenting well for his team but dropping some marks he should take and having his teammates kick the ball over his head on several occasions.

 

[Walshawk]

Based on my watching of the champs...
McKercher
Sanders
H Reid
Walter
Watson
Curtain
are the top 6. Not much between them.
Then Duursma @ 7
Caddy looks and plays like Karl Langdon. Lacks the class of the top 7.

 

[Teamwork Talks]

I'm off Caddy. Don't think he'll make it as a key fwd at the top level.

That's a bit harsh

 

[TylerDurden]

That's a bit harsh

Could make it as a 3rd tall, but we don't need one.

 

[nelk boys]

That's a bit harsh

I think people overreacting to one average game of his.

He's got enough tools to be a second key forward. Massive wingspan, agile and hits the packs hard. Has a real presence when he's up and about.

He's still the second best key position player in the draft after Curtin.

 

[bigmaxi]

I think people overreacting to one average game of his.

He's got enough tools to be a second key forward. Massive wingspan, agile and hits the packs hard. Has a real presence when he's up and about.

He's still the second best key position player in the draft after Curtin.

So we take Curtin!

 

[Dewnior]

Could make it as a 3rd tall, but we don't need one.

Actually, we need a 2nd and 3rd tall forward, but 2nd tall is the priority. But I'm wondering whether we can pick one up next year as a FA.

 

[kirbatron]

you guys change ya mind every week!

 

[Soaring Hawk]

I think people overreacting to one average game of his.

He's got enough tools to be a second key forward. Massive wingspan, agile and hits the packs hard. Has a real presence when he's up and about.

He's still the second best key position player in the draft after Curtin.

Walter? O’Sullivan? At least two others I’d take before Caddy, in addition to Curtin.


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[nelk boys]

Walter? O’Sullivan? At least two others I’d take before Caddy, in addition to Curtin.


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I meant in the open draft sorry.

I was more speaking to KPF's. O'Sullivan looks promising however.