List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[Topkent]

Our flag window is open because some punters placed some bets? Gotcha

An the fantastic commitment of our generational midfielders
I remember when Luke Hodge, Michael Voss had to move in with their mums during their 3 peat.

 

[BaliDemon]

What's this F1 nonsense lol
I'm saying you were downplaying the strength of that massive haul but then you seem very confident we can kill with the way less draft hand.

I downplayed the notion that every early pick will be an automatic gun. You seem to be working on this assumption that 4, 5, 9 and 13 is going to net four stars of the competition. It’s unrealistic. Almost never works out like that.

I prefer keeping our best or close to best player and working with the draft hand we’ve got. Shoot me.

 

[BaliDemon]

Our flag window is open because some punters placed some bets? Gotcha

It’s one indicator. Pies are favourites, Lions second … do you scoff at those betting market odds too?

 

[Topkent]

I downplayed the notion that every early pick will be an automatic gun. You seem to be working on this assumption that 4, 5, 9 and 13 is going to net four stars of the competition. It’s unrealistic. Almost never works out like that.

I prefer keeping our best or close to best player and working with the draft hand we’ve got. Shoot me.

That's been our mentality since 21, everything's great let's just make minor tweaks and bring in fringe players and we are the best

 

[BaliDemon]

That's been our mentality since 21, everything's great let's just make minor tweaks and bring in fringe players and we are the best

We beat both Grand Finalists during h/a. We lost a final to the eventual premier by a kick. Had a bad injury run, lost Gus early, played with a bloke at FF who can barely jump and turn.

Tweaks, adjustments and the addition of some good kids at the draft … along with some better luck on the injury front and we will be there or thereabouts again. It’s tough to win these things twice. Ask Pendlebury and Sidebottom.

Throwing out the baby with the bathwater is not a good strategy in a premiership window.

 

[PerfectFooty]

It’s one indicator. Pies are favourites, Lions second … do you scoff at those betting market odds too?

Yes i do, because they never should be an indicator. By all means bet n shit, but it's not an valid reason to tell me we're a good side because of what the majority of some punters think.

I'm pretty sure we where favourites in a lot of games we lost this year too, i also petty sure Geelong where up in the premiership odds. Using odds as a foundation for arguing we are good (or bad) is stupid, tell me why without inlcuding average joe's with some extra cash as your primary source.

 

[Topkent]

We beat both Grand Finalists during h/a. We lost a final to the eventual premier by a kick. Had a bad injury run, lost Gus early, played with a bloke at FF who can barely jump and turn.

Tweaks, adjustments and the addition of some good kids at the draft … along with some better luck on the injury front and we will be there or thereabouts again. It’s tough to win these things twice. Ask Pendlebury and Sidebottom.

Throwing out the baby with the bathwater is not a good strategy in a premiership window.

Home and away means absolutely **** all. We lost to Freo in the home away so are we a bottom 4 side?

It means jack shit when you show up in finals and perform like shit 2 years running.

Bad injury run blah blah. Excuses are for losers mate. We lost to a Collingwood side without Daicos and never had control over the game at any point. We then went and lost the exact same way against a side who lost more games in the H/A than us who were also missing McKay. Every team had injuries and bad luck.

We weren't good enough. Was pretty obvious pretty far out. You don't win a flag with one bloke at AA level especially when your best players aren't even taking it seriously.

Only tweaks are Oliver on mad Monday

 

[BaliDemon]

Yes i do, because they never should be an indicator. By all means bet n s**t, but it's not an valid reason to tell me we're a good side because of what the majority of some punters think.

I'm pretty sure we where favourites in a lot of games we lost this year too, i also petty sure Geelong where up in the premiership odds. Using odds as a foundation for arguing we are good (or bad) is stupid, tell me why without inlcuding average joe's with some extra cash as your primary source.

Well, it is an indicator whether you like it or not. Year on year, save for an anomaly here and a surprise packet there, premiership and top 8 betting odds are around the mark. Brisbane, Collingwood and Melbourne were all considered top 4 fancies by betting agencies prior to the 2023 season. Lo and behold they were right.

Most football pundits in the media would also have Melbourne in their top six if not top four flag chances heading into 2024. Subject somewhat to what we do this off season trade and draft wise.

 

[Topkent]

Well, it is an indicator whether you like it or not. Year on year, save for an anomaly here and a surprise packet there, premiership and top 8 betting odds are around the mark. Brisbane, Collingwood and Melbourne were all considered top 4 fancies by betting agencies prior to the 2023 season. Lo and behold they were right.

Most football pundits in the media would also have Melbourne in their top six if not top four flag fancies heading into 2024. Subject somewhat to what we do this off season trade and draft wise.

Premiership odds mean **** all

 

[BaliDemon]

Home and away means absolutely * all. We lost to Freo in the home away so are we a bottom 4 side?

It means jack s**t when you show up in finals and perform like s**t 2 years running.

Bad injury run blah blah. Excuses are for losers mate. We lost to a Collingwood side without Daicos and never had control over the game at any point. We then went and lost the exact same way against a side who lost more games in the H/A than us who were also missing McKay. Every team had injuries and bad luck.

We weren't good enough. Was pretty obvious pretty far out. You don't win a flag with one bloke at AA level especially when your best players aren't even taking it seriously.

Only tweaks are Oliver on mad Monday

Okay. You can think all that. I think you’re wrong.

One poster questioned whether I’d be mentally okay if we traded out Oliver. I’m beginning to wonder the same about you if we keep him. It’s clear you really, really dislike the guy.

 

[Topkent]

Okay. You can think all that. I think you’re wrong.

One poster questioned whether I’d be mentally okay if we traded out Oliver. I’m beginning to wonder the same about you if we keep him. It’s clear you really, really dislike the guy.

No need to deflect from the topic because I've made really valid points you can't answer back on

 

[tomcruise]

Home and away means absolutely * all. We lost to Freo in the home away so are we a bottom 4 side?

It means jack s**t when you show up in finals and perform like s**t 2 years running.

Bad injury run blah blah. Excuses are for losers mate. We lost to a Collingwood side without Daicos and never had control over the game at any point. We then went and lost the exact same way against a side who lost more games in the H/A than us who were also missing McKay. Every team had injuries and bad luck.

We weren't good enough. Was pretty obvious pretty far out. You don't win a flag with one bloke at AA level especially when your best players aren't even taking it seriously.

Only tweaks are Oliver on mad Monday

250 to 1 we lose the finals this year based on expected outcome. All the stats that are supposed to indicate a win were there, it wasn't us performing like shit.

What makes us not good enough in your mind? Gameplan, personnel or some other indicator?

 

[BaliDemon]

Premiership odds mean * allView attachment 1823470

Graphs and charts showing exceptions to a general rule don’t enhance your argument.

 

[PerfectFooty]

Well, it is an indicator whether you like it or not. Year on year, save for an anomaly here and a surprise packet there, premiership and top 8 betting odds are around the mark. Brisbane, Collingwood and Melbourne were all considered top 4 fancies by betting agencies prior to the 2023 season. Lo and behold they were right.

Most football pundits in the media would also have Melbourne in their top six if not top four flag fancies heading into 2024. Subject somewhat to what we do this off season trade and draft wise.

I'm obvs not going to win this arguement with you. You can make a prediction without having the bet on it. The general amount of people that bet on something is not a concrete arguement for why anything would be a good or bad. It's just a bunch of people making predictions (or in some cases make some coin off worse odds). If i wanted to hear what people predicted i'd rather listen to the weather forcast. Saying we'll be around the mark because of the odds doesn't make it so

 

[BaliDemon]

No need to deflect from the topic because I've made really valid points you can't answer back on

Not deflecting at all. We have a difference of opinion. Mine is more conservative and logically sound but you’re welcome to be an out-of-the-box thinking ultra risk taker. That’s your prerogative.

 

[BaliDemon]

I'm obvs not going to win this arguement with you. You can make a prediction without having the bet on it. The general amount of people that bet on something is not a concrete arguement for why anything would be a good or bad. It's just a bunch of people making predictions (or in some cases make some coin off worse odds). If i wanted to hear what people predicted i'd rather listen to the weather forcast. Saying we'll be around the mark because of the odds doesn't make it so

A detailed statistical analysis of premiership odds, top four odds and top eight odds over say the last ten years would unequivocally prove that my argument is sound and you are wrong.

It is an indicator, not a crystal ball predictor of exact outcomes. Know the difference.

 

[Topkent]

250 to 1 we lose the finals this year based on expected outcome. All the stats that are supposed to indicate a win were there, it wasn't us performing like s**t.

What makes us not good enough in your mind? Gameplan, personnel or some other indicator?

Because we base a game plan around winning statistical indicators for success such as inside 50 and contested possessions. In reality we spent most of the games trailing Collingwood and Carlton and constantly had to work ultra hard for goals whilst giving them away easily.
Gameplans out dated badly, teams attack from the back half to leave open space for their forwards so they can kick low pressure goals. Meanwhile we force Fritsch to win a 7 man contested mark and goal from 45m out on an angle. Expected scores model is shit. How many times did we kick a goal and then concede straight from a centre bounce. It doesn't take that into account.

Personnel is a huge problem. You need multiple AAs to win flags. Mays very close to the end so I don't know if he has another in him. Lever absolutely can't win one without a dominant may so our backline more than likely has no AAs save for Rivers exploding next year.

Our midfield is bland and boring. It's a rotating crew of long kicking contested types who are are allergic to lowering the eyes and the jewel of the crown just had to get moved in with Gawn because he wasn't taking his profession seriously. Gawns 33 I think. Again unlikely to be AA for much longer so outside of Trac and clarey redemption story no AAs.

Forward line well I mean. Fristch is great, Koz can be but is still inconsistent and that's it. No one else is making AA.

So what I dont see is the best team in the competition. Not even close.

 

[BaliDemon]

Because we base a game plan around winning statistical indicators for success such as inside 50 and contested possessions. In reality we spent most of the games trailing Collingwood and Carlton and constantly had to work ultra hard for goals whilst giving them away easily.
Gameplans out dated badly, teams attack from the back half to leave open space for their forwards so they can kick low pressure goals. Meanwhile we force Fritsch to win a 7 man contested mark and goal from 45m out on an angle. Expected scores model is s**t. How many times did we kick a goal and then concede straight from a centre bounce. It doesn't take that into account.

Personnel is a huge problem. You need multiple AAs to win flags. Mays very close to the end so I don't know if he has another in him. Lever absolutely can't win one without a dominant may so our backline more than likely has no AAs save for Rivers exploding next year.

Our midfield is bland and boring. It's a rotating crew of long kicking contested types who are are allergic to lowering the eyes and the jewel of the crown just had to get moved in with Gawn because he wasn't taking his profession seriously. Gawns 33 I think. Again unlikely to be AA for much longer so outside of Trac and clarey redemption story no AAs.

Forward line well I mean. Fristch is great, Koz can be but is still inconsistent and that's it. No one else is making AA.

So what I dont see is the best team in the competition. Not even close.

With Petty, Melk & Gus we probably would’ve won the flag.

Dogga left for Freo. Clarry underdone.

Stars didn’t align unfortunately. It happens.

 

[Topkent]

With Petty, Melk & Gus we probably would’ve won the flag.

In fantasy land sure.

 

[PerfectFooty]

A detailed statistical analysis of premiership odds, top four odds and top eight odds over say the last ten years would unequivocally prove that my argument is sound and you are wrong.

Really just can't let go of the odds. You want to live by everyone elses predictions go for it. I'll watch the team when they actually do something

 

[BaliDemon]

Really just can't let go of the odds. You want to live by everyone elses predictions go for it. I'll watch the team when they actually do something

No flag for decades then we win one and start regularly making the top four, rarely if ever get beaten by big margins and it’s all disappointment, doom and gloom.

Maybe it’s you who can’t let go.
Of an irrational, unrealistic and frankly ungrateful outlook on competitive professional sport.

 

[Topkent]

No flag for decades then we win one and start regularly making the top four, rarely if ever get beaten by big margins and it’s all disappointment, doom and gloom.

Maybe it’s you who can’t let go.
Of an irrational, unrealistic and frankly ungrateful outlook on competitive professional sport.

Mate you won't listen to any opinion that isn't the dees are the greatest we can't do anything but win the flag next year.

 

[BaliDemon]

Mate you won't listen to any opinion that isn't the dees are the greatest we can't do anything but win the flag next year.

I’ve listened to your opinion. I’m all for different opinions. But I disagree with it. What more can I tell ya?

I agree with you on other things.
Just not this.

 

[PerfectFooty]

No flag for decades then we win one and start regularly making the top four, rarely if ever get beaten by big margins and it’s all disappointment, doom and gloom.

Maybe it’s you who can’t let go.
Of an irrational, unrealistic and frankly ungrateful outlook on competitive professional sport.

Right there, you just made your own point, backed up by our own record. Without a prediction, which is what you could have done ages ago when i wanted YOUR opinon.

I also never said we'd crash and burn next year, or say we'd win the whole thing. I'm am waiting to see what happens, because i judge by our performances, not what we might or might not do

 

[BaliDemon]

Right there, you just made your own point, backed up by our own record. Without a prediction, which is what you could have done ages ago when i wanted YOUR opinon.

I also never said we'd crash and burn next year, or say we'd win the whole thing. I'm am waiting to see what happens, because i judge by our performances, not what we might or might not do

Great and good idea to wait and see what happens.

Not sure how old you are but I’m 48yo. Started barracking for the Dees when I was about 10yo. Waited 36 years to see us win a flag. During that time endured some of the most horrendous eras of MFC failure and mismanagement imaginable.

That kind of wait and experience of the doldrums brings a certain perspective and level of patience. I get the feeling these are two qualities you are, to some extent, lacking in.