Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[macky99]

Our first round pick after a few academy selections will be pick 20

There is literally 1.5 games between 5th-12th, anything is still possible, if we maintain form we are tracking well, but let's not get ahead of ourselves we have four tough games & without two of our best mid fielders it won't be easy at all.

More likely to be 11-15 range.

 

[Bletch]

Himmelberg re-signing for GWS takes away one potential compensation pick (though I doubt it would have been band 1). Remaining question is over whether the AFL caves in to Norf's demands for round 1 compensation for McKay; early access to Sanders/Callinan; a draft assistance package.

Still looks likely that Suns will get 3 top-10 players (even with the injury to Walter). McCabe (Haw) and Croft (WBU) remain potential 1st round father/son picks.

Even if Norf get nothing, the first round of the draft is likely to be 23 selections. MJ's estimate of pick 20 is certainly optimistic of our chances from here on, but not out of the realms of possibility. I'd think 16-19 more likely.

 

[Stamos]

MJ's estimate of pick 20 is certainly optimistic of our chances from here on

Optimistic for the draft, it will be bumped out further than that.

 

[thylacine60]

what are people's thoughts on austin's best maneuverings as far as the nd is concerned? - he's clearly a sharp operator - best past examples and what he will be attempting this year please - show your working - all submissions accepted - begin at once.........go............

 

[Jeremias]

what are people's thoughts on austin's best maneuverings as far as the nd is concerned? - he's clearly a sharp operator - best past examples and what he will be attempting this year please - show your working - all submissions accepted - begin at once.........go............

He’s list manager rather than recruiter, so I think a lot of the credit goes to Agresta.

Nevertheless in Nick’s time at Carlton we’ve brought in…

Zac Williams (RFA)
Lachie Fogarty (trade)
Adam Saad (trade)
Corey Durdin (pick 37)
Jack Carroll (pick 41)
Luke Parks (rookie pick 8)
Oscar McDonald (SSP)
Alex Mirkov (MSD)
Jordan Boyd (MSD)

George Hewett (RFA)
Adam Cerra (trade)
Lewis Young (trade)
Jesse Motlop (pick 27)
Lochie O’Brien (rookie)
Matt Cottrell (rookie)
Dom Akuei (rookie cat B)
Sam Durdin (MSD)
Will Hayes (MSD)

Blake Acres (trade)
Oliver Hollands (pick 11)
Lachie Cowan (pick 30)
Jaxon Binns (pick 32)
Harry Lemmey (pick 47)
Ed Curnow (rookie)
Alex Cincotta (SSP)
Hudson O’Keeffe (SSP)

Regardless of whether you attribute him the responsibility of making these moves, there’s a lot of good work here.

A few misses sure, but certainly nothing catastrophic, no different to any other list manager.

The worst move looks the Williams deal which is bad, but still has time to come good.

 

[macky99]

what are people's thoughts on austin's best maneuverings as far as the nd is concerned? - he's clearly a sharp operator - best past examples and what he will be attempting this year please - show your working - all submissions accepted - begin at once.........go............

Most likely we would look at trading out next years F1st to strengthen our hand in this draft.
Most likely Fisher & Dow may get a couple of picks 30-45 range.
Gold Coast pick 5 is on the table, many clubs interested, GWS have two 1st round picks, be interesting to see how creative Austin is.
Most likely a free agent is likely as we don't have the picks for trading in players.

Our finishing position is still very much undecided so that will also be a key factor.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Most likely we would look at trading out next years F1st to strengthen our hand in this draft.
Most likely Fisher & Dow may get a couple of picks 30-45 range.
Gold Coast pick 5 is on the table, many clubs interested, GWS have two 1st round picks, be interesting to see how creative Austin is.
Most likely a free agent is likely as we don't have the picks for trading in players.

Our finishing position is still very much undecided so that will also be a key factor.

I wouldn't; I'd simply be looking to trade in some depth within the top 45 or so, instead of selecting players at the tail end of the draft when even the best of the project types have already gone. We don't know what will crop up next year, it might be best to keep at least our first pick.

 

[Jeremias]

Trading our 2024 1st makes a lot of sense, particularly given we're likely going to welcome 2 F/S in the Camporeale boys.

Just not sure it'll happen before draft night.

Will be interesting to see what we do, but it's absolutely a viable way to establish a stronger hand in the draft this year if we want to do so.

 

[Bletch]

Trading our 2024 1st makes a lot of sense, particularly given we're likely going to welcome 2 F/S in the Camporeale boys.

Just not sure it'll happen before draft night.

Will be interesting to see what we do, but it's absolutely a viable way to establish a stronger hand in the draft this year if we want to do so.

Depends on where (1) we think we'll be in 2024; and (2) where we think they'll be picked. Be nice to hang on to that #1 if it comes before a bid on either of the boys. Perhaps trade out 2nd round pick instead, and look to pick up a bunch of 3rd/4th round picks for points.

The way this year's draft is panning out, trading back into it (likely for late 1st round or early 2nd) doesn't make a lot of sense. Unless we can find a way to get up to the pointy end, but that doesn't seem likely.

My current inclination is to hold on to 2024 1st round, if a bid comes in early, we live trade it.

 

[Jeremias]

Depends on where (1) we think we'll be in 2024; and (2) where we think they'll be picked. Be nice to hang on to that #1 if it comes before a bid on either of the boys. Perhaps trade out 2nd round pick instead, and look to pick up a bunch of 3rd/4th round picks for points.

The way this year's draft is panning out, trading back into it (likely for late 1st round or early 2nd) doesn't make a lot of sense. Unless we can find a way to get up to the pointy end, but that doesn't seem likely.

My current inclination is to hold on to 2024 1st round, if a bid comes in early, we live trade it.

Long way to go but both boys are tracking very nicely.

Even if it's line ball we'll trade it. We certainly will not want the pick to be absorbed by any bids.

 

[Bletch]

Long way to go but both boys are tracking very nicely.

Even if it's line ball we'll trade it. We certainly will not want the pick to be absorbed by any bids.

Dunno. We could line up a deal with a club to swap it for a 2025 pick in live trade. Would likely be a safer bet than trading it away this year.

Just don't see it worth that much in this year's draft. But who knows... would certainly be worth it if we can bundle the picks for a top-10 pick this year. Don't see it happening though.

 

[macky99]

I wouldn't; I'd simply be looking to trade in some depth within the top 45 or so, instead of selecting players at the tail end of the draft when even the best of the project types have already gone. We don't know what will crop up next year, it might be best to keep at least our first pick.

Trading our F1st is the best way and the most effective way of improving our draft hand this year, particularly on the basis we seem certain to draft the Campo brothers the following year.

Continuing to bring in good young talent is important and having a few early picks would be logical in this draft.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Holding onto your first round pick next year becomes even more important with the prospect of the Campo brothers next year. Wingers/HBFs rarely go top 10 unless they are supremely talented so even though they’re performing well, I’d be surprised at this stage if they drew bids before our first pick.

Best case scenario is we get our first pick and then get two good Father/Sons soon after.

There’s no one available in this draft around the 15-20 range that I would sacrifice that prospect for.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Holding onto your first round pick next year becomes even more important with the prospect of the Campo brothers next year. Wingers/HBFs rarely go top 10 unless they are supremely talented so even though they’re performing well, I’d be surprised at this stage if they drew bids before our first pick.

Best case scenario is we get our first pick and then get two good Father/Sons soon after.

There’s no one available in this draft around the 15-20 range that I would sacrifice that prospect for.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

We have to improve next year and with very limited cap space the draft is one of the only ways of doing that. If we keep our F1 thats just another year of waiting while Cripps, Charlie, Saad etc are in their primes.

The top 15-25 may not be as enticing as the top 10 this year in particular... but getting games and pre seasons into some kids who can improve us within the next 2-3 years is vital.

 

[macky99]

Holding onto your first round pick next year becomes even more important with the prospect of the Campo brothers next year. Wingers/HBFs rarely go top 10 unless they are supremely talented so even though they’re performing well, I’d be surprised at this stage if they drew bids before our first pick.

Best case scenario is we get our first pick and then get two good Father/Sons soon after.

There’s no one available in this draft around the 15-20 range that I would sacrifice that prospect for.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

If we look at the age profile of our list our most talented players are now at the peak of their career, we need to be proactive in this build and have two early picks and trading next years rather waiting another 12 months makes sense, particularly with a few clubs already flagging the 1st is likely to be on the table.

 

[Bletch]

If we look at the age profile of our list our most talented players are now at the peak of their career, we need to be proactive in this build and have two early picks and trading next years rather waiting another 12 months makes sense, particularly with a few clubs already flagging the 1st is likely to be on the table.

But it won't be two early picks because this year's first round is heavily compromised (and may get worse).

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Trading our 2024 1st makes a lot of sense, particularly given we're likely going to welcome 2 F/S in the Camporeale boys.

Just not sure it'll happen before draft night.

Will be interesting to see what we do, but it's absolutely a viable way to establish a stronger hand in the draft this year if we want to do so.

It would depend on who is available. I doubt we'd trade for an extra pick in the draft this year just for the sake of it. People are in favour of the idea because it gives whoever we get an extra year in the system. However, I'm nonplussed on who might be available. We'd arguably be trading down in quality for that extra year of development, which rankles me. We could also do with next year's pick just in case a player becomes available in a trade.

 

[Jeremias]

However, I'm nonplussed on who might be available

 

[macky99]

But it won't be two early picks because this year's first round is heavily compromised (and may get worse).

Totally dependant on what deals can be done eg Gold Coast have their 1st pick on table and GWS have two early picks, alot to play out the next month in finishing positions, with the tightness of the ladder and our challenging injury list one loss can flip our position significantly with our road ahead.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

We may also get 12 months down the track and want to trade for a player that we think will get us a premiership and have ten years left. I’ve gone off trading our future first just because I think it won’t hold much value. Sure have it on the trade table during the draft night for a player but I really doubt we move it on before that and probably just as unlikely during the draft. Who knows though, GC traded future pick 11 for I think it was 26 to get the player they wanted so we might be in the same position where we think it’s worth it.

 

[macky99]

It would depend on who is available. I doubt we'd trade for an extra pick in the draft this year just for the sake of it. People are in favour of the idea because it gives whoever we get an extra year in the system. However, I'm nonplussed on who might be available, we'd arguably be trading down in quality for that extra year of development, which rankles me. We could also do with next year's pick just in case a player becomes available in a trade.

The club has flagged they are going to the draft this year, as we have very few picks and TDK has elected to stay our only real leverage to be active in this draft is next years 1st, expect that to be on the table to improve our position.

 

[Bletch]

Totally dependant on what deals can be done eg Gold Coast have their 1st pick on table and GWS have two early picks, alot to play out the next month in finishing positions, with the tightness of the ladder and our challenging injury list one loss can flip our position significantly with our road ahead.

If GCS were willing to give up their 1st for ours and future 1st, I'd jump at it. But I think they'll get better offers. Yep, a lot to play out for sure.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'd be very happy if we could get 3 picks between 10-35 and take Murphy, Wilson and Demattia/Collard. Chances of a Watson or Mckercher are next to impossible with our resurgence but theres still plenty of quality past the first 10, the first 10 is just extraordinary in comparison.

 

[DangerousD]

I dont see many negatives in trading our F1, if we get to next years draft and we really want a pick, trade our F1 again.

As many have pointed out, the club has said many times, we want to hit the draft. You don’t do that with a 1 and two 4s

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I dont see many negatives in trading our F1, if we get to next years draft and we really want a pick, trade our F1 again.

As many have pointed out, the club has said many times, we want to hit the draft. You don’t do that with a 1 and two 4s

Agreed. I think we'll be targeting 3 quality kids with decent picks this year and some rookies. Add Gresham to that mix whether we want him or not and that should be enough for the 7-8 list changes most of us are expecting.