NCAA 2023- NCAA Off Season News

[aussiedude]

 

[gaskin]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Pac-12 is dead within the next 10 years. Washington and Oregon will be holding the conference together and if they jump ship as well then there is no coming back for the conference.

 

[aussiedude]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Pac-12 is dead within the next 10 years. Washington and Oregon will be holding the conference together and if they jump ship as well then there is no coming back for the conference.

Oregon has a board of regents meeting on Thursday that only popped up today.

thing is Oregon is not academically up there for the Big12, and some teams like Stanford or Cal are not athletically a fit for the Big12.

Big12 is the easier sell for most of the schools because its easier to get the full share.
But i feel like some of the other schools like Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon state are going to be left behind since neither Big12 or 10 will find them appealing.

Arizona will fit in the Big12 because of the Basketball strength.

 

[Dirty Bird]

The most ironic part in all of this is that they left the BigXII due to BigXII instability and Pac-12 stability.

 

[aussiedude]

funny part is they were the worst team in both and left for full share of money.

This whole round of realignment started again because of the SEC poaching Texas and Oklahoma. It was likely inevitable that the power 5 would end up becoming 4 super conferences. but didnt have the Big12 being a survivor. Pac-12's demise and likely death is because of Larry Scott who will go down as one of the worst commissioners in any sport. Kliavkoff was always going to struggle to keep the conference alive once USC and UCLA left

 

[Dirty Bird]

Oregon has a board of regents meeting on Thursday that only popped up today.

thing is Oregon is not academically up there for the Big12, and some teams like Stanford or Cal are not athletically a fit for the Big12.

Big12 is the easier sell for most of the schools because its easier to get the full share.
But i feel like some of the other schools like Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon state are going to be left behind since neither Big12 or 10 will find them appealing.

Arizona will fit in the Big12 because of the Basketball strength.

I assume you mean BigTen?
They actually are.
They value AAU recognition.

The only school in their conference that doesn't have that is Nebraska. But they actually had it when joining the league.

In the Pac-12, everyone but Oregon State and Washington State has it.

Oregon's issues are Population (therefore TV pull) and whether they can maintain themselves once Papa Phil stops pumping in alot of money.

Oregon actually moving to the BigXII, although obviously best in the short term, mightn't be the best thing in the long term. They might be best off letting the Pac-12 implode and being able to get into the BigTen without exit fees or the like. Or even on a part share in the short term (Obviously, it sounds s**t, but it'd be an upgrade on Pac/BigXII money)

What I think should happen (at this point)
Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to BigXII (Arizona State sounds reluctant, and BYU really wants to block Utah in spite)
Oregon and Washington to the BigTen (If the other corner state schools run over this might be more certain as they mightn't have to pay an exit fee)
Stanford would obviously go Independent at this point.
Oregon State and Washington State to go to the MWC

The question all comes down to Cal. Do they try and stay independent. Or do they drop to the Big West.

But I can just see it resulting in Oregon jumping to the BigXII then the Pac-12 goes SDSU and SMU with their elitest attitude

 

[Dirty Bird]

Suddenly just became super excited for this season.

Last couple of weeks I've been going through a recruitment process and today I got told unofficially I have the job. Hoping it's official come Monday (Going into office in the afternoon after I finish at my current employer)

And this will mean being able to watch college football again (after not being able to last year)

And with Falcons being an East Coast team, a good chance at watching the Falcons again too (I might actually have time to watch 1pm starts before work now!!)

 

[AJ_2000]

Suddenly just became super excited for this season.

Last couple of weeks I've been going through a recruitment process and today I got told unofficially I have the job. Hoping it's official come Monday (Going into office in the afternoon after I finish at my current employer)

And this will mean being able to watch college football again (after not being able to last year)

And with Falcons being an East Coast team, a good chance at watching the Falcons again too (I might actually have time to watch 1pm starts before work now!!)

Congratulations and best of luck at the new gig. Nothing more exciting than a window of time to watch more football

 

[aussiedude]

tomorrow is the Pac-12s last chance. seems like the TV deal will be presented to the schools. and a few hours later the Arizona board of regents [who actually have control over both Arizona and Arizona State] will have a newly scheduled sitting which some are speculating will be about if they stay or go to the big12.

Sad that USC killed the Pac-12, first they kept blocking the conference inviting Big12 teams and then shocked everyone when they ran to the Big10. soon they will be crying about having to fly half way across America every 2nd week and having to play 9am PST games.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I'm seeing rumours now that the BigTen will go for Oregon, Washington AND Stanford and Cal.

From a Boise State fan perspective. This is probably the best thing for us. It's the death blow to the Pac-12 we need that leads to an improvement in the MWC (Gain Oregon State, Washington State AND PERHAPS Utah and Arizona State)

I'm also seeing rumours that the tv deal is highly likely to be AppleTV, and it'll be streaming based to the point where a big school in a small market (ala Boise State) is more attractive than a small school in a big market (ala SMU). Only roadblocks are Stanford and Cal blocking anyone with poor academics (But I'd ask them, where were theres in the 1910s?

 

[AJ_2000]

I'm seeing rumours now that the BigTen will go for Oregon, Washington AND Stanford and Cal.

From a Boise State fan perspective. This is probably the best thing for us. It's the death blow to the Pac-12 we need that leads to an improvement in the MWC (Gain Oregon State, Washington State AND PERHAPS Utah and Arizona State)

I'm also seeing rumours that the tv deal is highly likely to be AppleTV, and it'll be streaming based to the point where a big school in a small market (ala Boise State) is more attractive than a small school in a big market (ala SMU). Only roadblocks are Stanford and Cal blocking anyone with poor academics (But I'd ask them, where were theres in the 1910s?

Needs to be renamed the BigTwenty at this rate .

I would also make more sense to have more west coast teams to balance up the travel...

But then again if you're removing divisions so teams play each other more often then it defats the purpose....

 

[AJ_2000]

And Penn State will still have 0 traditional rivals on their schedule

 

[aussiedude]

I'm seeing rumours now that the BigTen will go for Oregon, Washington AND Stanford and Cal.

From a Boise State fan perspective. This is probably the best thing for us. It's the death blow to the Pac-12 we need that leads to an improvement in the MWC (Gain Oregon State, Washington State AND PERHAPS Utah and Arizona State)

I'm also seeing rumours that the tv deal is highly likely to be AppleTV, and it'll be streaming based to the point where a big school in a small market (ala Boise State) is more attractive than a small school in a big market (ala SMU). Only roadblocks are Stanford and Cal blocking anyone with poor academics (But I'd ask them, where were theres in the 1910s?

Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford have been strong together and made some kind of alliance. Oregon and Washington have been rumored to only wanting to move if both Stanford and Cal get an invite, because they had been told they wont get a full share anyway and it would cut down on travel costs and make it easier.

I do wonder what happens to the $12m a year UCLA pay Cal if Cal ends up in the Big10 since the money was apart of an agreement to let UCLA move.

Someone has already worked out the Apple TV numbers and its not great.

I dont think Stanford would of blocked anyone joining the Pac for not having the academic numbers, USC is the only school that is known to have blocked applications and that was for a couple of big12 schools a few years ago.

 

[aussiedude]

the big news today is Florida state being the first ACC to speak up about exiting. its been known FSU, Clemson Miami and North Carolina [and possibly others are unhappy, but the buyout is keeping them] but apparently if multiple teams try and get out the buyout can be voided to less.

 

[gaskin]

I'm seeing rumours now that the BigTen will go for Oregon, Washington AND Stanford and Cal.

From a Boise State fan perspective. This is probably the best thing for us. It's the death blow to the Pac-12 we need that leads to an improvement in the MWC (Gain Oregon State, Washington State AND PERHAPS Utah and Arizona State)

I'm also seeing rumours that the tv deal is highly likely to be AppleTV, and it'll be streaming based to the point where a big school in a small market (ala Boise State) is more attractive than a small school in a big market (ala SMU). Only roadblocks are Stanford and Cal blocking anyone with poor academics (But I'd ask them, where were theres in the 1910s?

I can't see Utah dropping to the G5. Either the Big 12 or 10 will take them.

 

[gaskin]

the big news today is Florida state being the first ACC to speak up about exiting. its been known FSU, Clemson Miami and North Carolina [and possibly others are unhappy, but the buyout is keeping them] but apparently if multiple teams try and get out the buyout can be voided to less.

I doubt the SEC would turn down FSU, Miami, or Clemson. The conference would gain in state rivals for South Carolina in Clemson and two rivals for Florida. But, the ACC will be a lot harder to get out of than the Pac 12.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I can't see Utah dropping to the G5. Either the Big 12 or 10 will take them.

10 wouldn't take them (they want to keep slots open for acc/nd)
12 might try, BUT, I can see byu getting revenge and ****ing them over.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I doubt the SEC would turn down FSU, Miami, or Clemson. The conference would gain in state rivals for South Carolina in Clemson and two rivals for Florida. But, the ACC will be a lot harder to get out of than the Pac 12.

The sounds of it is 4 teams to sec and 4 to bigten.

 

[aussiedude]

I doubt the SEC would turn down FSU, Miami, or Clemson. The conference would gain in state rivals for South Carolina in Clemson and two rivals for Florida. But, the ACC will be a lot harder to get out of than the Pac 12.

the ACC is easy to get out of. the schools just dont want to pay $120m buyout. but last year it was questioned how strong the ACC grant of rights is should more and 2 teams try and exit at the same time.

the ACC still has 13 years on its TV deal that none of the big schools are happy about.

The ACC deal is about $17m a year per school. the current Pac-12 one that everyone hates was $21m per school.
Big10 is closer to $70 on its new deal, Big12 deal is about $40m for a full share, SEC is in the $50m per school

 

[aussiedude]

the biggest issues is how the SEC and Big10 deals are structured for new teams. for if they get full share or how long before they get full share of the rights. and how the escalators work in the contracts.

Because it sounds like Fox isnt keen on Oregon/Washington getting a full share [but it would allow for an extra 1-2 games a week and possible broadcast partner, but then what game will that be. because who is paying for Rutgers/Illinois/Maryland games every week. I know Amazon was after the NBC deal and had a bigger offer but going streaming for that package wasnt what the Big10 wanted.

but say if Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford move. then there is 2 games a week to sell but what games will Fox be willing to let go i think Fox get first pick, CBS 2nd, NBC 3rd. do they bother with a new broadcast partner or stick the leftovers on BTN.

The SEC broadcast is simple. they are 100% ESPN networks so no issue there other than how much extra Disney will pay the SEC per year.

 

[AJ_2000]

the ACC is easy to get out of. the schools just dont want to pay $120m buyout. but last year it was questioned how strong the ACC grant of rights is should more and 2 teams try and exit at the same time.

the ACC still has 13 years on its TV deal that none of the big schools are happy about.

The ACC deal is about $17m a year per school. the current Pac-12 one that everyone hates was $21m per school.
Big10 is closer to $70 on its new deal, Big12 deal is about $40m for a full share, SEC is in the $50m per school

Amazing that they've got plenty of cash to buyout sacked coaches though...

 

[aussiedude]

Amazing that they've got plenty of cash to buyout sacked coaches though...

coach buyouts are not lump sums. most of them are over a 3-5 year period.

Everyone remembers the Charlie Weis thing. ND fired him and he got like $6m year one, then $2M the next 8 years. He also got sacked by Kansas and another buy out from them.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Rumours all over the place

Arizona in talks with BigXII

Oregon, Washington, Stanford and California in talks with BigTen

Oregon, Washington, Florida State and Clemson in talks with BigTen (Apparently if 2+ teams leave, there's some weird sh*t with the GOR)

AppleTV deal expires end of the week and it's rescinded if the Pac12 doesn't take it.

 

[aussiedude]

the lowest the AppleTV deal is still higher than the current ACC deal and about just a little less then the current Pac-12 deal.

Its just schools dont want $20m they want $50m+ a year

 

[Dirty Bird]

bahahahahahah
$50M?

Lol,
The Pac would never get that unless
1) You never lost USC/UCLA/Colorado (LA and Denver huge tv markets)
AND
2) You went the MAC route and played exclusively weekdays at night. Saturdays are too packed with college football to the point that Pac-12/MWC teams are either buried in the primetime slot, OR, so late, there's no East Coast viewership as they're in bed.

You MAY have pulled off 40m with a strong USC.
But 30m is more realistic.
And having now lost the LA market, 20m is probably too much in itself. I feel AppleTV is overpaying so they can get some content and grow from there. But it's an extra cost on regular appletv? It'd be the death of the conference.