NCAA 2023 - NCAA - Week 14 - Championship Weekend

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Saturday, December 2
C-USA Championship Game
New Mexico State @ Liberty 11AM CBSSN

PAC-12 Championship Game
Oregon Vs Washington 12PM ESPN2 WatchESPN Kayo


Sunday, December 3

BIG XII Championship Game
Oklahoma State Vs Texas 4AM ESPN WatchESPN Kayo

MAC Championship Game
Miami [OH] Vs Toledo 4AM ESPN2 WatchESPN Kayo

MW Championship Game
Boise State Vs UNLV 7AM FOX

SEC Championship Game
Alabama Vs Georgia 8AM CBS

AAC Championship Game
SMU @ Tulane 8AM WatchESPN

Sun-Belt Championship Game
Appalachian State @ Troy 8AM WatchESPN

BIG10 Championship Game
Michigan Vs Iowa 12PM FOX

ACC Championship Game
Louisville Vs Florida State 12PM WatchESPN
 
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Top 25

01. Georgia
02. Michigan
03. Washington
04. Florida State

05. Oregon
06. Ohio State

07. Texas
08. Alabama
09. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss
12. Oklahoma
13. LSU
14. Louisville
15. Arizona
16. Iowa
17. Notre Dame
18. Oklahoma State
19. NC State
20. Oregon State
21. Tennessee
22. Tulane
23. Clemson
24. Liberty
25. Kansas State
 
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I wish we got all the games live. I'd even bring myself to wake up at 5am for the SEC Championship Game.

The Pac-12 should be an absolute cracker which I think Oregon will get up this time.
 

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If Alabama beats Georgia this weekend. I reckon it will create some chaos with the rankings, and some controversy.

Michigan should win their final game, and Florida should just be able to get over Louisville despite their QB issues. So both should hold onto a spot inside the top four. The next place will come down to the winner of Washington vs Oregon.

Which leaves Georgia vs Alabama. Georgia wins, they are in. But if Alabama wins, this is where is gets interesting. Do they leap frog and push Georgia outside of the top four?

What about Texas? Currently ahead of Alabama in the rankings and beat them already. I personally think Texas should make the 4th and final spot in this scenario. But the committee will screw them over, because they have to have one of their two SEC darlings in the play offs.
 
If Alabama beats Georgia this weekend. I reckon it will create some chaos with the rankings, and some controversy.

Which leaves Georgia vs Alabama. Georgia wins, they are in. But if Alabama wins, this is where is gets interesting. Do they leap frog and push Georgia outside of the top four?

That is what will cause chaos. The playoff committee will be praying Georgia win. Outside of our fan base I reckon the rest of the college world will be hoping Bama wins for the chaos.

Georgia win and I think the other 3 spots are quite simple. Michigan will beat Iowa and be in. The winner of Washington/Oregon will be in. FSU lose and then Texas probably get in if they win the Big 12.

If FSU and Texas both lose then the committee have an interesting decision. Do they put in Ohio State who didn't play for a conference championship. Do you keep a one lose FSU who lost the conference title game. Or do you go for one of the two loss conference title losers in Texas and Alabama. If Washington lose a close one they could still get in.
 
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That is what will cause chaos. The playoff committee will be praying Georgia win. Outside of our fan base I reckon the rest of the college world will be hoping Bama wins for the chaos.

Georgia win and I think the other 3 spots are quite simple. Michigan will beat Iowa and be in. The winner of Washington/Oregon will be in. FSU lose and then Texas probably get in if they win the Big 12.

If FSU and Texas both lose then the committee have an interesting decision. Do they put in Ohio State who didn't play for a conference championship. Do you keep a one lose FSU who lost the conference title game. Or do you go for one of the two loss conference title losers in Texas and Alabama. If Washington lose a close one they could still get in.
a 2 Loss team isnt getting in. especially when both are below Ohio St in the 2nd last rankings.
 
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Knew the CFP wouldn't drop Ohio State far and keep them above Texas and Alabama
Means nothing. It's just a placeholder in the event that Georgia, Louisville and Oklahoma State all win this weekend
Texas and Alabama will both go above Ohio State should they win their conference titles.

Not sure why you keep putting a space between teams 5/6 (Oregon, Ohio State) and 7/8 (Texas, Alabama) in your OP.
Seems more like wishful thinking on your part than the actual reality of the playoff chances and permutations.


But don't take my word for it... Read either one of these articles below.









Or just take a gander at the online betting markets. Far more intelligent people than you or me get paid to study these things.

As you can see, Ohio State are rank outsiders to finish in the top 4. They'll need all the results to go their way this weekend and it still might not be enough.

Alabama are still very short in the betting markets, despite facing #1 Georgia this weekend.

I expect the winner of the SEC Championship will move into outright favouritism for the national title ahead of Michigan. The Wolverines are 23 point favourites to belt Iowa this weekend, so their odds to win the title won't improve much, whereas the Bulldogs are 6 point faves to beat Bama. Warm favourites, but still a tricky hurdle to overcome. If Georgia wins, they'll probably move into +130 ($2.30) favouritism for the natty.


National title odds.....(converted to % chance)

Sportsbet
Michigan......... $2.80.... 30.9%
Georgia.......... $2.88.... 30.1%
Oregon........... $5.50.....15.8%
Alabama........ $11.00......7.9%
Texas............ $11.00......7.9%
Washington.... $23.00......3.8%
Florida State... $34.00......2.5%
Ohio State...... $76.00......1.1%

Bet365
Michigan.......... 180.... 30.6%
Georgia........... 200.... 28.5%
Oregon............ 500.... 14.3%
Alabama.......... 800...... 9.5%
Texas.............. 900...... 8.6%
Washington.... 1800...... 4.5%
Florida State... 2800...... 3.0%
Ohio State...... 8000...... 1.1%

BetMGM
Michigan.......... 190.... 29.7%
Georgia........... 210.... 27.8%
Oregon............ 500.... 14.4%
Alabama.......... 800...... 9.6%
Texas.............. 900...... 8.6%
Washington.... 1800...... 4.5%
Florida State... 2500...... 3.3%
Ohio State...... 4000...... 2.1%

Caesars
Michigan.......... 190.... 28.8%
Georgia........... 210.... 26.9%
Oregon............ 500.... 13.9%
Alabama.......... 800..... 9.3%
Texas.............. 800..... 9.3%
Washington.... 1600..... 4.9%
Florida State... 1600..... 4.9%
Ohio State...... 4000..... 2.0%

PointsBet
Michigan.......... 180.... 30.0%
Georgia........... 200.... 28.0%
Oregon............ 500.... 14.0%
Alabama.......... 750..... 9.9%
Texas.............. 900..... 8.4%
Washington.... 1600..... 4.9%
Florida State... 3000..... 2.7%
Ohio State...... 4000..... 2.0%

BetRivers
Michigan.......... 175.... 31.5%
Georgia........... 200..... 28.9%
Oregon............ 500.... 14.4%
Alabama......... 1000..... 7.9%
Texas............. 1000..... 7.9%
Washington.... 1800...... 4.6%
Florida State... 3000..... 2.8%
Ohio State...... 4000..... 2.1%

Unibet
Michigan........ 175...... 31.5%
Georgia.......... 200..... 28.9%
Oregon........... 500..... 14.4%
Alabama........ 1000...... 7.9%
Texas............ 1000...... 7.9%
Washington.... 1800...... 4.6%
Florida State... 3000...... 2.8%
Ohio State...... 4000...... 2.1%
 
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Most likely scenario according to the betting markets...

(-6) Georgia def. Alabama
(-23) Michigan def. Iowa
(-9.5) Oregon def. Washington
(-2.5) Florida State def. Louisville
(-14.5) Texas def. Oklahoma State


If all the favourites win, then the playoff rankings will be...

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Florida State (13-0)
4. Oregon or Texas (12-1)
 
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Michigan are riding one of the easier schedules all the way to the national title game.

East Carolina
UNLV
Bowling Green
Rutgers
@ Nebraska
@ Minnesota
Indiana
@ Michigan State
Purdue
@ Penn State
@ Maryland
Ohio State
Iowa
Florida State (??)

  • Easy non-conference games to start the year 3-0
  • Cruise through the season proper, beating up on the no-hopers from the Midwest
  • Good win at Penn State.
  • Close game at home vs the Buckeyes.
  • Iowa Cupcakes in the Big Ten championship
  • good chance they'll play the struggling ACC champs (minus their gun QB, Jordan Travis) in the playoff semi final
 
* off with your gambling infecting sport bullshit, take it to the punting board where we can ignore it.
 
Mar 2, 2015
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Old mate using betting markets to make his point 😂

If you are so confidant put a $100 on it mate.
Confident of what? I expect Georgia to put Nick Saban out of his misery this weekend. But I think it's cute the way the you keep ignoring the actual reality of the playoff permutations.

You've painted yourself into a corner by dismissing Alabama's playoff chances all year long and here we are, coming into championship weekend with Bama riding a 11 game winning streak and a puncher's chance of squeezing their way into the playoffs.


Why are you laughing at me posting the betting markets? I think they do prove my point about the playoff permutations and make you look like a fool. I never said Alabama WILL make the playoffs. I said they CAN. It's well within their grasp if they can beat Georgia. It's a big IF... But that win might be enough on its own. It will become a certainty if either Texas or Florida State also lose this weekend.

Your whole contention seems to be that Alabama have no chance, even if they do beat Georgia. The expert opinions and the betting markets say otherwise.

Did you read either of those linked articles, by the way? I also used those to "prove my point".... but you seem to ignore that.
 
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* off with your gambling infecting sport bullshit, take it to the punting board where we can ignore it.
Or you could just scroll past to the next post like most normal people do when they see a post they don't like or don't wanna read.

Doesn't take that much effort. Just one or two flicks of the thumb. No need to tell me to F off

smartphone-scroll.gif
 
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Confident of what? :rolleyes: I fully expect Georgia will put Nick Saban out of his misery this weekend. But I think it's cute the way the you keep ignoring the actual reality of the playoff permutations.

You've painted yourself into a corner by dismissing Alabama's playoff chances all year long and here we are, coming into championship weekend with Bama riding a 11 game winning streak and a puncher's chance of squeezing their way into the playoffs.


Why are you laughing at the betting markets? I think they do prove my point about the playoff permutations and make you look like a fool.

I never said Alabama WILL make the playoffs. I said they CAN. It's well within their grasp if they can beat Georgia. It's a big IF... But that win might be enough on its own. It will become a certainty if either Texas or Florida State also lose this weekend.

Your whole contention seems to be that Alabama have no chance, even if they do beat Georgia. The expert opinions and the betting markets say otherwise.

Did you read either of those linked articles, by the way? I also used those to "prove my point".... but you seem to ignore that.
They can but i give them a 5% chance of making it. Its hard to jump 4+ spots.

I dismissed Alabama's chances because they were never going to make it. they were never going to beat Georgia and a 2 loss non champ has no chance of making the current format. How dare logic get in the way of your love for Alabama.
 
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Its hard to jump 4+ spots.
You really don't understand the methodology of CFP rankings and the criteria they use to rank the top teams, do you?

Probably just as well we're moving to a Top 12 playoff series next year. Easier for everyone involved. Less drama about whether teams 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15 should get the last 2 spots (and in all likelihood, get their arses handed to them in the quarter finals)
 
Michigan are riding one of the easier schedules all the way to the national title game.

East Carolina
UNLV
Bowling Green
Rutgers
@ Nebraska
@ Minnesota
Indiana
@ Michigan State
Purdue
@ Penn State
@ Maryland
Ohio State
Iowa
Florida State (??)

  • Easy non-conference games to start the year 3-0
  • Cruise through the season proper, beating up on the no-hopers from the Midwest
  • Good win at Penn State.
  • Close game at home vs the Buckeyes.
  • Iowa Cupcakes in the Big Ten championship
  • good chance they'll play the struggling ACC champs (minus their gun QB, Jordan Travis) in the playoff semi final

Don't you know that it was only Georgia that had a cupcake schedule this season?
 
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I dismissed Alabama's chances because they were never going to make it. they were never going to beat Georgia and a 2 loss non champ has no chance of making the current format. How dare logic get in the way of your love for Alabama.
You added this bit to your post while I was typing my previous reply...

You know you're wrong. So now you're shifting the goalposts of our little debate. Nobody ever claimed Alabama had a snowflakes chance in hell of making the playoffs if they lost to Georgia. Not with so many undefeated teams in contention this year.

It was you, not me, who gave Alabama no chance of running the table and finishing their scheduled season with a 12-1 record. You assumed that "struggling" Bama would lose at least one more game vs Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, or Auburn

That was why you dismissed the poster who came on here a couple of months ago and asked why Bama was at juicy long odds to win the natty.


Even last weekend, you still tried to claim Alabama couldn't make the playoffs even if they beat Georgia.

I pointed it out to you they were still very much alive.


Not my problem, if you're too smooth-brained to accept my wisdom. :):thumbsu:
 
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Or you could just scroll past to the next post like most normal people do when they see a post they don't like or don't wanna read.

Doesn't take that much effort. Just one or two flicks of the thumb. No need to tell me to F off

smartphone-scroll.gif

Seriously, it's super insensitive be posting gambling bullshit where people don't expect to see it.
 

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