Preview 2024 Rd 8 Carlton v Collingwood Friday 3 May 7.40PM AEST @ MCG

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4 changes

IN: Adam Cerra, Alex Cincotta, David Cuningham, Orazio Fantasia
OUT: Jaxon Binns, Jack Carroll, Ollie Hollands, Brodie Kemp







Round 8 team v Collingwood
Backs:Zac WilliamsLewis YoungLachie Cowan
Half-backs:Alex CincottaJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Centreline:David CuninghamPatrick CrippsBlake Acres
Half-forwards:Matthew CottrellHarry McKayElijah Hollands
Forwards:Matthew OwiesCharlie CurnowTom De Koning
Followers:Marc PittonetSam WalshGeorge Hewett
Interchange:Jordan BoydAdam CerraCorey Durdin
Orazio FantasiaMatthew Kennedy
Emergencies:Jack CarrollOllie HollandsBrodie Kemp
 

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Assuming both sides are up for this game so then from Carlton's point of view it comes down to 3 things:
  • Inside 50 entries and quality of those entries
  • Pressure from our HFFers, mids, wingers when Pies go for turnover goals
  • Whether our defenders panic one on one or not. Currently they are taking turns in defensive calamity
Assumptions which can fall over easily:
  • We win stoppages and CB clearances
  • Pies win turnovers
Biggest worry
  • Our defenders in one on ones or zoning stupidly losing their man in role handovers
 
Assuming both sides are up for this game so then from Carlton's point of view it comes down to 3 things:
  • Inside 50 entries and quality of those entries
  • Pressure from our HFFers, mids, wingers when Pies go for turnover goals
  • Whether our defenders panic one on one or not. Currently they are taking turns in defensive calamity
Assumptions which can fall over easily:
  • We win stoppages and CB clearances
  • Pies win turnovers
Biggest worry
  • Our defenders in one on ones or zoning stupidly losing their man in role handovers
Against Geelong we tended to try to cover the out number by coming off our man and hoping behind will cover the next in line. This occurred so many times when sometimes it’s just not worth it as they kicked clear every time as the pressure wasn’t enough. We need better coverage behind the ball. Playing a spare early is really important particularly on kick ins after we score inevitable points from easy shots. I would much prefer we don’t give up the pocket for kick ins and force them down the line. This is our advantage as Collingwood aren’t very tall.
 
I think we have a double edge sword working for/against us. We need at least 3 marking targets forward. We have used DeKoning and he is marking it. Having a ruckman sized player as the third marking target hurts us defensively, it takes the forward pressure, speed and mobility away.

When we had the two marking targets and the rest smalls, we were scoring low but defending, tackling/pressuring well. Then we add the third marking target we score high but defend/pressure poorly. So we also get scored against on the rebound.

This is a hard one. I think if the backline as intact we would handle the current land of the giants forward line a lot better. I think ideally the third tall forward has to be mobile, Silvagni or Martin style and perhaps there is another medium forward in the mix and either McKay or Silvagni rucks.

I did like the two talls and the rest smalls, the scoring was low but the pressure and defensive game as a team was good. I think DeKoning as the third tall creates a shootout situation which results in us needing to kick well for goal and score high to win. We will get more shots. We will be rebounded heavily against us.

This is the tricky situation we face. I don't think any of our small forwards are elite pressure forwards. Elite pressure forwards still kick goals and get the ball but have good pace and get the pressure acts up really high as well. I don't think our guys are far off it though.

I think our forward line works really well when our defence is in tact and we kick straight or when we have one or two medium but quick mobile targets.

I think our best side is good enough to beat anyone's best side. But we are missing a number of crucial players. Forget Docherty and Silvagni, both would be good to have in the side but aren't involved in this season. I think Marchbank, Saad and Martin are our biggest three outs by some stretch. McGovern is also a big out. With Marchbank and McGovern in the side I don't think Cameron kicks the bag he did last weekend.

But we have to win with what we have got. Collingwood are a different side to Geelong. I worry a bit whether their rebound may get on top of us. We may be easy to rebound against. Our defence being short on quality means if we get rebounded against we could leak again.

I am looking forward to us dominating around the ball and getting a lot of inside 50s. That should happen. They don't have the height to worry us but they are conscious how they go inside 50 so pressure is important.
 
Top 2 will play. Could have played last week but our Medical team seem to be very very cautious these days

Interesting isn’t it especially given Rozee reportedly did a low grain hamstring strain yet he is now likely to play. Obviously no two injuries are the same and given Cerra’s history with hamstring injuries it probably made sense to err on the side of caution, but Cerra effectively missed 3 games with the same diagnosis.
 
Interesting isn’t it especially given Rozee reportedly did a low grain hamstring strain yet he is now likely to play. Obviously no two injuries are the same and given Cerra’s history with hamstring injuries it probably made sense to err on the side of caution, but Cerra effectively missed 3 games with the same diagnosis.
Port fans are furious that Rozee’s playing
 

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Against Geelong we tended to try to cover the out number by coming off our man and hoping behind will cover the next in line. This occurred so many times when sometimes it’s just not worth it as they kicked clear every time as the pressure wasn’t enough. We need better coverage behind the ball. Playing a spare early is really important particularly on kick ins after we score inevitable points from easy shots. I would much prefer we don’t give up the pocket for kick ins and force them down the line. This is our advantage as Collingwood aren’t very tall.
When we began our turnaround last year the biggest change for mine was we went from coming off and being caught in middle ground to coming off the man and impacting. We commited early and backed ourselves in to impact and turn the ball over and if we missed the guy behind would come off and impact the next contest and win it back.

Has to be clarity of thought, can I get there and impact the contest if I can then go don't get concerned about leaving your man out the back and having it marked on your name.
 
Don’t think owies gets dropped or Ollie
Yes, you are most probably right Eskie. More because the shelf is basically bare of possible replacements imo.
Owies for Cuners could work, however who else has the tank to play wing?
I knew we should have persevered with LOB, Lol.
 
Owies is pretty much our most consistent fwd. He had a bad game, why drop him.

Owies has played 7 games for 8 goals, averages just over 7 possessions and just under 2 tackles per game, they aren’t the numbers of someone who is providing much to a forward line, as a player Owies busts his arse, loves the club and loves a goal, its just that he is small, slow and doesnt impact games.

I think is clear Voss likes the idea of playing with a certain structure, but if the players you have aren’t contributing or aren’t up to the standard, then id hope he makes a change.

Seperate to Owies, I’m not sure Voss can speak so bluntly about failing to live up to our standards defensively and then not make a few changes, so selection will be interesting this week,
 
This year could go either way from here, for us. Either we gradually get our injured player's back over the next month, or so.

Then go on a winning run of games. Or, we continue to lose player's, almost on a weekly basis. And our season never really gets rolling.

Strongly believe that the first trajectory, will be the one we follow. We will probably never have our best 23 available. But if we have a blessed run with injuries from now until the last Saturday of September.

Then I believe, we will still go very, very close to winning the cup.

Very important player's to return are Cerra, McGov, Saad, Martin, Motts and Fog.
Role players who will make us better are Cuners and Marchy.

Should have Chez and Cuners back this week.

I would omit Ollie and Jack Carroll.
Out of your listed players above Saad is the only player I trust Re injuries etc. the rest have history of missing games...unsure we can have faith in them all returning and making a meaningful
Contribution. Just saying...
 
When we began our turnaround last year the biggest change for mine was we went from coming off and being caught in middle ground to coming off the man and impacting. We commited early and backed ourselves in to impact and turn the ball over and if we missed the guy behind would come off and impact the next contest and win it back.

Has to be clarity of thought, can I get there and impact the contest if I can then go don't get concerned about leaving your man out the back and having it marked on your name.
Easier to do this when you’ve got the pace (and experience) of Gov and Saad. They can cover so much more ground than their replacements Young and Cowan.
 
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