Preview Round 0 - Carlton vs Brisbane Friday March 8 - 7.40PM AEDT @ The Gabba - Team Stickied

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …

AFL team news: Carlton's first team of 2024

There's a club debutant in the mix as Carlton returns to action for season 2024.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Opening Round team v Brisbane
Backs:	Brodie Kemp	Lewis Young	Adam Saad
Half-backs:	Zac Williams	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Matthew Kennedy
Half-forwards:	George Hewett	Charlie Curnow	Matthew Owies
Forwards:	Orazio Fantasia	Harry McKay	David Cuningham
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Adam Cerra	Sam Docherty
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Jack Carroll	Matthew Cottrell
	Lachie Fogarty	Ollie Hollands
Emergencies:	Jaxon Binns	Alex Cincotta	Marc Pittonet

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[Love the Drake]

Decided the best place to watch this match was to escape Melbourne. Have booked a prime spot in a great sports bar in Bali.
Tough match. Brissie in Brissie. Injuries to key players. Hot, humid conditions (I’ll push through and keep hydrated on Bintangs)
Some surprising selections- Owies and Carroll. But in saying that we have to match their run with midfield options (Carroll) and find more ways to score goals (Owies).
Big O murdered us last year as did Coleman and McKenna. Massive task for TDK and someone surely tasked to play the defensive forward on Coleman (cuningham?). McKenna not playing.
We win if our mids beat their mids. If they get the ball into their forward frequently we have as much chance of winning as me drinking iced tea during the game.
Go blues!!! Bring your best..

 

[HeihachiMishima]

We're flying up to Brissie today - question for locals, anywhere else having a pre-game gathering besides The Plough Inn? It was a great function for the prelim last year, keen to see what's happening around town.

 

[RAPPA]

Well, this is my less than credible justification for my low work productivity for the day

 

[WalshYouLegend]

I’m going for an unexpected victory tonight against a (hopefully) rusty Lions outfit. Go Blues!! Let’s jump into the season hard!

 

[BlueSuede]

I reckon that if we win, there will be at least one of our stars (the Cripps or Curnow type) having a huge game. But I also reckon there will be some interesting subplots, such as
Having multiple avenues to goal - Owies and Fantasia kicking 4-5 between them, or a mid like Kennedy getting 2 or 3
Our tall backs standing up in the absence of Weitering
The inclusion of Williams providing a new dynamic to the team, either him personally, or one of Saad, Newman or Boyd getting off the chain and having huge metres-gained numbers
The team hitting high points for our famous 'pressure and contest game', e.g. high pressure ratings across the game, tackle numbers, contested- and ground-ball numbers

Looking forward to seeing all that live tonight!

 

[Arr0w]

The key, as always, is that we need to kick 15 goals to win. That looks our biggest stretch most weeks at the moment, but we can't expect to beat Brisbane in Brisbane without it (particularly not with Weitering out).

So where do those goals come from? Typically, I think you want a 5-5-5 spread - that is, 5 goals from your KPF, 5 goals from your other forwards, 5 from your mids and defenders

Our issues:

-Our midfield REALLY struggled for goals last year, and in particular were almost totally absent during our pathetic run of 9 losses in 10 games (with something like 5 goals combined in that time, if I remember correctly). Our best goalkicking mid was Cottrell (who played a bit forward too) with 0.6 per game. No-one else even got to one goal every two matches. In our best run of form, though, the mids did better.

- Our non-key forwards were actually good when at full strength last year - Owies (1.5), Martin (1.5ish, allowing for injury), Motlop (1.1), Silvagni (0.9), and Durdin (1.0) all did their bit. The problem was when we included too many of Cuningham (0.5), Fogarty (0.33), TDK as a forward (0.45), Honey (0.5) or Kennedy (0.3) as forwards - they simply don't kick enough goals. And here is our issue in this one: Silvagni, Martin, Motlop and Durdin are out, and Owies is underdone.

- Our KPFs - to be honest, Brisbane have covered them very well over the past 2 seasons, with Curnow/McKay combining for 8 goals in 3 matches. Curnow was awful in the prelim final. In a win we can hope they get to 4-5 goals, but I don't see a big bag coming.

That suggests to me that the path to ANY win here involves:

• Cripps has a vintage/throwback game, pushes forward and kicks 2-3 goals (and probably has 35 touches too), with a bit of support from Cerra/Kennedy and maybe TDK getting up and clunking one
• Fantasia has to be the spark up forward and kick 3.

It might even just be that simple from what I can see. If those two things don't both happen, I simply don't think we'll score enough, and an honourable loss is the best outcome.

I highly doubt any side will get close to 15 goals tonight

 

[Michael Jezz]

Har

The key, as always, is that we need to kick 15 goals to win. That looks our biggest stretch most weeks at the moment, but we can't expect to beat Brisbane in Brisbane without it (particularly not with Weitering out).

So where do those goals come from? Typically, I think you want a 5-5-5 spread - that is, 5 goals from your KPF, 5 goals from your other forwards, 5 from your mids and defenders

Our issues:

-Our midfield REALLY struggled for goals last year, and in particular were almost totally absent during our pathetic run of 9 losses in 10 games (with something like 5 goals combined in that time, if I remember correctly). Our best goalkicking mid was Cottrell (who played a bit forward too) with 0.6 per game. No-one else even got to one goal every two matches. In our best run of form, though, the mids did better.

- Our non-key forwards were actually good when at full strength last year - Owies (1.5), Martin (1.5ish, allowing for injury), Motlop (1.1), Silvagni (0.9), and Durdin (1.0) all did their bit. The problem was when we included too many of Cuningham (0.5), Fogarty (0.33), TDK as a forward (0.45), Honey (0.5) or Kennedy (0.3) as forwards - they simply don't kick enough goals. And here is our issue in this one: Silvagni, Martin, Motlop and Durdin are out, and Owies is underdone.

- Our KPFs - to be honest, Brisbane have covered them very well over the past 2 seasons, with Curnow/McKay combining for 8 goals in 3 matches. Curnow was awful in the prelim final. In a win we can hope they get to 4-5 goals, but I don't see a big bag coming.

That suggests to me that the path to ANY win here involves:

• Cripps has a vintage/throwback game, pushes forward and kicks 2-3 goals (and probably has 35 touches too), with a bit of support from Cerra/Kennedy and maybe TDK getting up and clunking one
• Fantasia has to be the spark up forward and kick 3.

It might even just be that simple from what I can see. If those two things don't both happen, I simply don't think we'll score enough, and an honourable loss is the best outcome.

Harry 4
Charlie 3
Fantasia 2
Kennedy 2
Owies 1
Cerra 1
Cottrel 1
14 goals

 

[ozzz]

I recall a few seasons back, there was conjecture whether the correct pronunciation of Orazio's surname was:

1. Fan TAY Seeya or 2. Fanta Seeya

Any updates?

 

[myblueroan]

This could be like one of those ads where the guy orders an uber a half hour before the game with his friends starts...

 

[skadoosh]

I recall a few seasons back, there was conjecture whether the correct pronunciation of Orazio's surname was:

1. Fan TAY Seeya or 2. Fanta Seeya

Any updates?

Correct pronunciation is Fanta Seeya. But Orazio said he doesn't care/mind.

Fantay-ja only stuck around because of BT.

 

[Neese]

Nervous.
This game is a bit of a free hit given I am not expecting us to win.

 

[Soapy V]

Why we will Win

Contested Ball - Our game plan keeps us in it against anybody. That is proven and in tough humid conditions it really helps
The Key will be everyone contributing and taking advantage of goal scoring opportunities

Midfield depth - Brisbane have some class but we bat deep. Cripps Kennedy Hewett Cerra Docherty is our core but it's the value minutes of Cuningham Fogarty Cottrell Carroll will mean we never drop off with pressure. I love the Carroll addition

Acres & Hollands is as good a wing combination as there is in the AFL.

TDK - He is ready to become a top leverl ruck. Being the main ruck will suit him

McKay - Being 2nd ruck will make him better. He needs to be involved, is a great athlete that will make us better and will still kick as many goals. I expect a big year from him.

Williams - What a story and loved by the players. His presence will really lift us let alone him being an A grade player. His combination with Boyd Saad Newman is as good as any

Pre season - Forget the 2 practice games. It was about miles in the legs. We have had a great pre season and are ready

It won't be pretty but who cares. Blues by 23 points

 

[btdg]

I highly doubt any side will get close to 15 goals tonight

Why not?

In the last two years, Brisbane have scored 85+ in 19/25 games at the GABBA. The others were all odd games (3 games where they kicked atrociously for goal eg: 10.18, a 6 goal win where Ashcroft did his knee, a random game where they just got belted by Geelong by 10 goals, and the prelim last year where they didn't show up in Q1 and still scored 79).

In their first GABBA game last year they scored 93 against Melbourne (best defence in the comp). Two years ago was one of their bad kicking games (11.14.80 vs Port) and they still put up a score that you need 14-15 goals to beat.

Further to that, across the last two years Brisbane have lost 15 games total (including finals). Only twice did their opponent fail to reach 90 points (70 vs Bulldogs last year, 57 vs Geelong at KP in 2022).

Basically, to beat Brisbane you have to score 90+ (which means 13-15 goals), which means you have to have a plan that gets you to 15 goals (give or take a few behinds) if everything goes to plan.

Edit: To reinforce this another way: in their last 50 matches, only once has a team scored less than 80 and beaten Brisbane. You simply cannot defend your way to a win against them. In contrast, teams that score 95 points against them are 13-2 in that time period. The only way to beat them is to score heavily against them.

 

[bigblueboy]

Expecting similar to last night. Humid conditions, lots of skill errors, contested footy.

Slightly off topic but I found last night’s game underwhelming both from a spectacle and energy perspective. Let’s hope this round 0 crap is banished for future years.

 

[Coona Blues]

I reckon that if we win, there will be at least one of our stars (the Cripps or Curnow type) having a huge game. But I also reckon there will be some interesting subplots, such as
Having multiple avenues to goal - Owies and Fantasia kicking 4-5 between them, or a mid like Kennedy getting 2 or 3
Our tall backs standing up in the absence of Weitering
The inclusion of Williams providing a new dynamic to the team, either him personally, or one of Saad, Newman or Boyd getting off the chain and having huge metres-gained numbers
The team hitting high points for our famous 'pressure and contest game', e.g. high pressure ratings across the game, tackle numbers, contested- and ground-ball numbers

Looking forward to seeing all that live tonight!

Yep, I think our stars/leaders have the perfect platform to strut their stuff tonight.

A healthy Crippa, with a phalanx of other mids around to absorb some pressure needs to break the Dunkley “tag” and lead the troops.

Charlie and Harry to hit top gear with a little creativity and variation in roles to lessen the direct attention from the Brisbane stoppers. Surely Chugga and Crippa do some forward rotations to make the oppo more accountable.

Forget the Coleman rebound weapons, they won’t know what hit them with Zac, Saady and even Boyd hitting targets forward of the centre.

I have long had faith in our list, but we need the leaders to refuse to succumb to attempts to blanket them.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Why not?

In the last two years, Brisbane have scored 85+ in 19/25 games at the GABBA. The others were all odd games (3 games where they kicked atrociously for goal eg: 10.18, a 6 goal win where Ashcroft did his knee, a random game where they just got belted by Geelong by 10 goals, and the prelim last year where they didn't show up in Q1 and still scored 79).

In their first GABBA game last year they scored 93 against Melbourne (best defence in the comp). Two years ago was one of their bad kicking games (11.14.80 vs Port) and they still put up a score that you need 14-15 goals to beat.

Further to that, across the last two years Brisbane have lost 15 games total (including finals). Only twice did their opponent fail to reach 90 points (70 vs Bulldogs last year, 57 vs Geelong at KP in 2022).

Basically, to beat Brisbane you have to score 90+ (which means 13-15 goals), which means you have to have a plan that gets you to 15 goals (give or take a few behinds) if everything goes to plan.

Edit: To reinforce this another way: in their last 50 matches, only once has a team scored less than 80 and beaten Brisbane. You simply cannot defend your way to a win against them. In contrast, teams that score 95 points against them are 13-2 in that time period. The only way to beat them is to score heavily against them.

I tink that the thought might be that we are playing this game earlier than a match for points at the Gabba has ever been played. Strong chance of showers and a stronger chance of high humidity.

The players struggled handling the ball and taking marks last night due to the humidity in Sydney. You would imagine that Brisbane might be worse.

 

[btdg]

Har

Harry 4
Charlie 3
Fantasia 2
Kennedy 2
Owies 1
Cerra 1
Cottrel 1
14 goals

Hopefully.

Harry McKay vs Brisbane in his career = 1, 0, 3, 6, 1, ,1, 2 = 2.0 per game (1.33 the last 2 seasons)
Charlie vs Brisbane = 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1 = 2.0 per game (1.33 the last 2 seasons)
Matt Kennedy has kicked two goals in a game twice in his last 40 matches, and managed 5 goals in 17 games last year.

It would be a massive turnaround given the way we have played under Voss for those three to kick 9 between them. Obviously coming in fresh off the off-season provides a bit of hope for a system that sets that up, but I'd think a more likely path to a win is something like:

• McKAy = 3
• Charlie = 2
• Fantasia = 2 (or even 3)
• Cripps = 2
• TDK = 1
• Cerra = 1
• Owies = 1 (or even 2)
• Acres = 1
• Cottrell = 1

Total = 14

Note that in his last real season at port (admittedly 3 years ago) Fantasia kicked multiple goals in 9 out of 15 games. Crippa had a bad year for scoring last year, but in 2022 he had 9 games with multiple shots at goal, only 4 games with 1 shot at goal, and 10 games with 0 shots. Basically - both will kick multiple goals if they play well and push forward.

Obviously that indicates a particular game style: the midfield HAS to be pushing forward aggressively when we have the ball, and getting possession 50-60m out, forcing Brisbane to choose between defending McKay/Curnow deep or allowing space that the mids (and Fantasia) can get into 40-50m out from goal.

Too often when we aren't playing well we don't push forward aggressively enough, end up trying to set things up from 80m+ out and bombing it long to a big contest. Without Martin/Motlop and even Silvagni, I reckon that's a recipe for disaster here. Either we go hard and aggressive or we will just lose this comfortably...

 

[Arr0w]

Humidity will be through the roof, so not overly concerned that we are undersized across the park, in fact it could benefit us more. I doubt the scoring will be high, but the difference could be who is more accurate. Best tactics tonight would be akin to wet whether footy, don't over-handball, win the territory battle, lock it into our forward half and maintain a high press

Young-JD, Kemp- Hipwood, Gov will need to play undersized against Gardiner. Boyd, Saad, Williams should be able to compete well against their smalls, Newman to play the deep last defender so the don't have an avenue for a quick over the top slingshot attack. Aerial balls need to be killed forward of the pack, can't have the pill or opposition getting goal side of a contest. Young could follow JD into the ruck, although Harry could be the better matchup as they are both lefties

An Acres, Doc, Cerra to rotate as a defensive mid, almost a 7th backman in front of the last line

Midfield is a no brainer, force the ball forward at all costs in congestion, or find an open avenue a little wider when we have control. Wings will need to come inboard more often as I believe the ball will be more in-dispute than under normal conditions. Suspect Hewett will be the Neale cooler, Cripps head to head with Dunkley, Cerra v McCluggage.

Payne-Charlie, Andrews-Harry, Lester- Kennedy (Think MD will spend a fair chuck forward), Starcevich good get the job. We need to curve the run and outlet of Coleman, Ah Chee and Wilmot

It's a fallacy that sides don't kick long into their forward lines, especially with midfield congestion, without an overlapping outlet and more-so with the likely conditions tonight. Although what needs to happen, is either drilling the ball long away from Andrews, or creating more congestion at the fall of the ball to impede him from a simple intercepting chest mark

I believe 85 points will be enough to win this game easily and while I have the Lions slight favourites, it should be a close game either way

Excited to see how we setup our year, win or lose

 

[Arr0w]

Why not?

In the last two years, Brisbane have scored 85+ in 19/25 games at the GABBA. The others were all odd games (3 games where they kicked atrociously for goal eg: 10.18, a 6 goal win where Ashcroft did his knee, a random game where they just got belted by Geelong by 10 goals, and the prelim last year where they didn't show up in Q1 and still scored 79).

In their first GABBA game last year they scored 93 against Melbourne (best defence in the comp). Two years ago was one of their bad kicking games (11.14.80 vs Port) and they still put up a score that you need 14-15 goals to beat.

Further to that, across the last two years Brisbane have lost 15 games total (including finals). Only twice did their opponent fail to reach 90 points (70 vs Bulldogs last year, 57 vs Geelong at KP in 2022).

Basically, to beat Brisbane you have to score 90+ (which means 13-15 goals), which means you have to have a plan that gets you to 15 goals (give or take a few behinds) if everything goes to plan.

Edit: To reinforce this another way: in their last 50 matches, only once has a team scored less than 80 and beaten Brisbane. You simply cannot defend your way to a win against them. In contrast, teams that score 95 points against them are 13-2 in that time period. The only way to beat them is to score heavily against them.

Have posted my thoughts as to why above

 

[T2B_]

Just no more injuries..

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Be in flight during start landed by halftime so hopefully good news -- very happy for Carrol .. persistence pays off

 

[Aphrodite]

We've experienced it all together: Cerra on galvanised group

Adam Cerra thinks all the experiences the Blues have been through will help them in the long run.

www.carltonfc.com.au

 

[btdg]

Have posted my thoughts as to why above

Humidity will be through the roof, so not overly concerned that we are undersized across the park, in fact it could benefit us more. I doubt the scoring will be high, but the difference could be who is more accurate. Best tactics tonight would be akin to wet whether footy, don't over-handball, win the territory battle, lock it into our forward half and maintain a high press

Young-JD, Kemp- Hipwood, Gov will need to play undersized against Gardiner. Boyd, Saad, Williams should be able to compete well against their smalls, Newman to play the deep last defender so the don't have an avenue for a quick over the top slingshot attack. Aerial balls need to be killed forward of the pack, can't have the pill or opposition getting goal side of a contest. Young could follow JD into the ruck, although Harry could be the better matchup as they are both lefties

An Acres, Doc, Cerra to rotate as a defensive mid, almost a 7th backman in front of the last line

Midfield is a no brainer, force the ball forward at all costs in congestion, or find an open avenue a little wider when we have control. Wings will need to come inboard more often as I believe the ball will be more in-dispute than under normal conditions. Suspect Hewett will be the Neale cooler, Cripps head to head with Dunkley, Cerra v McCluggage.

Payne-Charlie, Andrews-Harry, Lester- Kennedy (Think MD will spend a fair chuck forward), Starcevich good get the job. We need to curve the run and outlet of Coleman, Ah Chee and Wilmot

It's a fallacy that sides don't kick long into their forward lines, especially with midfield congestion, without an overlapping outlet and more-so with the likely conditions tonight. Although what needs to happen, is either drilling the ball long away from Andrews, or creating more congestion at the fall of the ball to impede him from a simple intercepting chest mark

I believe 85 points will be enough to win this game easily and while I have the Lions slight favourites, it should be a close game either way

Excited to see how we setup our year, win or lose

I don't think we disagree on much here - if it is as slippery as you expect then 85 vs 95-ish in good conditions is pretty much the same implications - it means we have to attack, move the ball forward quickly and try to outscore them rather than trying to out-defend them. Brisbane are not a team you want to be playing close to your defensive goal...

Beyond that, not only does being aggressive give us our best chance to win, but I think it also gives us our best losses, too.

Let's face it, par for his match (with Weitering/Walsh) is probably a 4-5 goal loss. A 110-80 loss is going to feel a lot better and give us all a bit more confidence than an 80-50 slugfest.

A more open, free flowing game where we force the ball forward at all costs is also probably a bit less draining than a tight, contested slugfest and given we have to travel home tomorrow and then play again on Thursday, that's also important.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I recall a few seasons back, there was conjecture whether the correct pronunciation of Orazio's surname was:

1. Fan TAY Seeya or 2. Fanta Seeya

Any updates?

TAYTAY-fan