Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

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Knightmare

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What have his performances in the reserves been like?

He certainly wouldn't command a top 10 pick after falling behind Gulden & Campbell in terms of game time/development.

My guess is that he'd fall into the 15-25 range.

Perhaps Knightmare & Mutineer might have thoughts on this?
Stephens was reasonable last year. Had 30d+ in the reserves last weekend from what I've read.

If I'm recruiting someone to my club I'd want to be high conviction as to whether a player would be best-22, and if young, long-term best-22.

My position on Stephens at this point is he could go either way, and if he does make the grade, he's not a top-10 on list piece, and more likely a bottom half of best-22 calibre piece.

I see his stocks as declining and likely to continue dropping as others from his draft develop and establish themselves at AFL level.

For a general feel with drafts normally, inside the first round, you select guys you're high conviction on, so that rules out a top-20 pick immediately if I'm considering him as a list addition. He's more-so a reasonable than overly good outside mid at this point. Something roughly 25-35 is roughly where I personally see his value unless/until he reclaims his position at AFL level and shows improvement from last year.

In an Adelaide context, I view Stephens as roughly a straight swap for Fischer McAsey. Perhaps they could even be two piece involved in a three way trade if there is another party in need of a key defender and can satisfy Sydney with that third piece of perceived equivalent value.
 

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Betts are off

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In an Adelaide context, I view Stephens as roughly a straight swap for Fischer McAsey. Perhaps they could even be two piece involved in a three way trade if there is another party in need of a key defender and can satisfy Sydney with that third piece of perceived equivalent value.
Hey mate, thanks for the feedback. I'm a little confused by this last line though in terms of their respective contract status'. How would it be the same value to trade a newly contracted Fischer McAsey for an uncontracted Dylan Stephens?

Wouldn't that by default imply that Fischer is actually way less in value? Or are you implying that the proposed trade concept above would be based on them both being re-signed?
 

Knightmare

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Hey mate, thanks for the feedback. I'm a little confused by this last line though in terms of their respective contract status'. How would it be the same value to trade a newly contracted Fischer McAsey for an uncontracted Dylan Stephens?

Wouldn't that by default imply that Fischer is actually way less in value? Or are you implying that the proposed trade concept above would be based on them both being re-signed?
I'm aware of the contract status of McAsey and was involved in a conversation on the Dogs board where McAsey's contract status was directly mentioned.

It depends on how confident the Crows are of McAsey being in their long term plans. There have been newly contracted players traded before, and it's something that will happen again.

But my general point is I view their value (contracts aside) as comparable in value as two who are working towards becoming long term best-22 players and respectively for me at least (I'm sure some passionate Crows fans will disagree) are toss of the coin calls as to whether they make it long term, and not nearly worth their original draft positions if a re-do of the draft was to take place. That's what I was getting at. They're both for me worth pick 25-35 in value, or roughly in my mind at least worth around the same as one another.
 

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I'm aware of the contract status of McAsey and was involved in a conversation on the Dogs board where McAsey's contract status was directly mentioned.

It depends on how confident the Crows are of McAsey being in their long term plans. There have been newly contracted players traded before, and it's something that will happen again.

But my general point is I view their value (contracts aside) as comparable in value as two who are working towards becoming long term best-22 players and respectively for me at least (I'm sure some passionate Crows fans will disagree) are toss of the coin calls as to whether they make it long term, and not nearly worth their original draft positions if a re-do of the draft was to take place. That's what I was getting at. They're both for me worth pick 25-35 in value, or roughly in my mind at least worth around the same as one another.
Cool, yeah that's what I suspected, but it was just a bit misleading as a trade concept given the events of the day. All clear now.

For what its worth I think you rank McAsey in a pretty understandable position on our list's best 22 echelon. Thats where most in here would logically consider him at this point in his development
 

Vader

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I would have expected more from Callum Twomey:
Adelaide will be open to three after Tyson Stengle's departure, Wayne Milera's season-ending knee injury and by moving Bryce Gibbs to the inactive list after they were forced to re-rookie him last year for payout purposes.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/603543/mid-season-draft-contenders-ex-crows-trio-on-radar

No, Callum. Gibbs has already been replaced by Nick Murray during the pre-season supplementary period. We do, however, have Hinge as another player with a season-ending injury.

At least he's confirmed this:
The order for the mid-season rookie draft will be determined by reverse ladder position at the end of round 11.
 
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Still think we need a small defender who can actually defend but yep, Milera has looked great at half back.

Think it was 2018 when Smith missed the year with his knee that Milera was superb off HB. We didn’t do a good job at harnessing he and Smith together after that and Wayne hasn’t clicked into gear since.
I don’t get why Murphy isn’t in the conversation as a small defender? I don’t think he will make it as a forward. He played is footy there when he was younger.
 

conVINCEd

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I don’t get why Murphy isn’t in the conversation as a small defender? I don’t think he will make it as a forward. He played is footy there when he was younger.
True. I think at the moment we need his defensive pressure in the forward line; we’re playing tall and McAdam and Fog aren’t offering much heat.

We seem happier to run Murphy through the middle in patches, rather than flicking him too the other end of the field. His size is a slight problem in defence; gotta be bloody good to overcome this (eg Caleb Daniel).
 

Grenville

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That's why you keep a Strachan/Lowden type ruckman on your list, as backup in case something does happen to the lead ruck.
This is such a short-sighted, nonsensical approach to list management. Consider where we are in terms of the rebuild and getting back to challenging.

Option 1 - Low ceiling, barely AFL standard, mature bodied, cheap ruckman. (Lowden, Graham, Strachan etc)
Option 2 - Higher ceiling kid, needing to fill-out/develop.

Either option can be brought in with late picks/rookie list and cost little in salary.

Your argument against #2 is:
  • he's not going to be ready to fill in as an AFL standard ruck for ~3 years while he's developing.
  • if he develops well he'll, leave to look for more game time.
  • he may not develop to AFL standard.
To which i'd say:
  • It doesn't matter. Results at this point aren't important enough so sacrifice longer-term strategy. If we were in a premiership window, then maybe worth discussing (and i'd still be against). But we're not.
  • That's great! Now we've built value and have options (keep as an upgrade/trade etc)
  • Neither is #1, so we're no worse off. If the trajectory doesnt look good we can cut losses & start over with new project player(s). Consider though, that in your utopian footy world where Obrien plays to the same standard, uninjured for the next 5-6 years you still run up against this when you eventually start developing his replacement. Even more reason to start now.

We talked about long term injury to the lead ruck, but what about form? In your world, where does the pressure to perform come from?
With #1, never.
With #2, it wont be there early on, but we're taking steps to create it in a few years when it matters.
 

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skam85

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This is such a short-sighted, nonsensical approach to list management. Consider where we are in terms of the rebuild and getting back to challenging.

Option 1 - Low ceiling, barely AFL standard, mature bodied, cheap ruckman. (Lowden, Graham, Strachan etc)
Option 2 - Higher ceiling kid, needing to fill-out/develop.

Either option can be brought in with late picks/rookie list and cost little in salary.

Your argument against #2 is:
  • he's not going to be ready to fill in as an AFL standard ruck for ~3 years while he's developing.
  • if he develops well he'll, leave to look for more game time.
  • he may not develop to AFL standard.
To which i'd say:
  • It doesn't matter. Results at this point aren't important enough so sacrifice longer-term strategy. If we were in a premiership window, then maybe worth discussing (and i'd still be against). But we're not.
  • That's great! Now we've built value and have options (keep as an upgrade/trade etc)
  • Neither is #1, so we're no worse off. If the trajectory doesnt look good we can cut losses & start over with new project player(s). Consider though, that in your utopian footy world where Obrien plays to the same standard, uninjured for the next 5-6 years you still run up against this when you eventually start developing his replacement. Even more reason to start now.

We talked about long term injury to the lead ruck, but what about form? In your world, where does the pressure to perform come from?
With #1, never.
With #2, it wont be there early on, but we're taking steps to create it in a few years when it matters.
Bang on.
Imagine if we only had a Lowden/Graham/Moran/Strachan type hanging around when Sauce was finishing up and not ROB...
 

Mutineer

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I don’t get why Murphy isn’t in the conversation as a small defender? I don’t think he will make it as a forward. He played is footy there when he was younger.
Played only the one season as a small defender, his initial season here with our SANFL team eventually being awarded the Dean Bailey Medal. At the Northern Knights he played the bulk of his footy in the midfleld.

Hopefully he can have a word with former Knights teammate Patrick Lipinski.... :)
 

Vader

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This is such a short-sighted, nonsensical approach to list management. Consider where we are in terms of the rebuild and getting back to challenging.

Option 1 - Low ceiling, barely AFL standard, mature bodied, cheap ruckman. (Lowden, Graham, Strachan etc)
Option 2 - Higher ceiling kid, needing to fill-out/develop.

Either option can be brought in with late picks/rookie list and cost little in salary.

Your argument against #2 is:
  • he's not going to be ready to fill in as an AFL standard ruck for ~3 years while he's developing.
  • if he develops well he'll, leave to look for more game time.
  • he may not develop to AFL standard.
To which i'd say:
  • It doesn't matter. Results at this point aren't important enough so sacrifice longer-term strategy. If we were in a premiership window, then maybe worth discussing (and i'd still be against). But we're not.
  • That's great! Now we've built value and have options (keep as an upgrade/trade etc)
  • Neither is #1, so we're no worse off. If the trajectory doesnt look good we can cut losses & start over with new project player(s). Consider though, that in your utopian footy world where Obrien plays to the same standard, uninjured for the next 5-6 years you still run up against this when you eventually start developing his replacement. Even more reason to start now.

We talked about long term injury to the lead ruck, but what about form? In your world, where does the pressure to perform come from?
With #1, never.
With #2, it wont be there early on, but we're taking steps to create it in a few years when it matters.
Ultimately you need both... but there is very little to no need for a developing kid, when we have ROB who is 25yo and only in his 2nd year as a full-time lead ruckman.

The time for a developing/high ceiling ruckman will come in the years before we expect ROB to finish, allowing sufficient time (4-5 years) for development, so the kid is ready to take over when ROB is heading off into the sunset. That time is not now.
 

Vader

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Bang on.
Imagine if we only had a Lowden/Graham/Moran/Strachan type hanging around when Sauce was finishing up and not ROB...
I'm not saying that we don't need a developing ruckman every - we just don't need one now. We should probably be drafting one in 2022 or 2023, but it's a very low priority in 2021.
 

WeedsMullet84

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Played only the one season as a small defender, his initial season here with our SANFL team eventually being awarded the Dean Bailey Medal. At the Northern Knights he played the bulk of his footy in the midfleld.

Hopefully he can have a word with former Knights teammate Patrick Lipinski.... :)
He's being called up to the seniors this week..
 
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Murphy was a midfielder. What made you think he played as a small defender?
Played there in the SANFL when he first came over. Either way, not sure why he isn’t in conversation as a small defender. Same goes for Himmelberg as a CHB. Not saying either will be a golden selection in those positions, just raising the point that we are in the midst of a rebuild and we should be considering playing certain players in positions where they could potentially find a more suitable role (or be able to play multiple roles for us).
 

Mutineer

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Ultimately you need both... but there is very little to no need for a developing kid, when we have ROB who is 25yo and only in his 2nd year as a full-time lead ruckman.

The time for a developing/high ceiling ruckman will come in the years before we expect ROB to finish, allowing sufficient time (4-5 years) for development, so the kid is ready to take over when ROB is heading off into the sunset. That time is not now.
I'm with you, we've brought in Rucks in the past that are barely AFL standard back ups if they're ever called upon....and guess what the last young development Ruck we drafted in ROB we are now bearing the fruits of that decision. Fine keep Strachan on if we must on a year to year basis as break glass in emergency back up but we should be drafting or recruiting a "young" ruck with the view to having an AFL "class" ready to take over the mantle of lead ruck as ROB's powers wane.
 

skam85

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Ultimately you need both... but there is very little to no need for a developing kid, when we have ROB who is 25yo and only in his 2nd year as a full-time lead ruckman.

The time for a developing/high ceiling ruckman will come in the years before we expect ROB to finish, allowing sufficient time (4-5 years) for development, so the kid is ready to take over when ROB is heading off into the sunset. That time is not now.
And what if ROB does an ACL?
Look at the other teams. If Gawn goes down, Luke Jackson is ready to go. Grundy? Darcy Cameron. Hickey? Sinclair. Lycett? Ladhams. Stef Martin? Tim English (and Jordon Sweet who more than held his own).

St Kilda had Paul Hunter (another of our terrible ruck alumni) and that could not have gone worse.

I'd much rather us be proactive than reactive. It also pushes ROB to be better knowing he's got a young promising ruck snapping at his heels.
 

Vader

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And what if ROB does an ACL?
Look at the other teams. If Gawn goes down, Luke Jackson is ready to go. Grundy? Darcy Cameron. Hickey? Sinclair. Lycett? Ladhams. Stef Martin? Tim English (and Jordon Sweet who more than held his own).

St Kilda had Paul Hunter and that could not have gone worse.

I'd much rather us be proactive than reactive. It also pushes ROB to be better knowing he's got a young promising ruck snapping at his heels.
That's why we have Strachan.
 

Mutineer

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And what if ROB does an ACL?
Look at the other teams. If Gawn goes down, Luke Jackson is ready to go. Grundy? Darcy Cameron. Hickey? Sinclair. Lycett? Ladhams. Stef Martin? Tim English (and Jordon Sweet who more than held his own).

St Kilda had Paul Hunter (another of our terrible ruck alumni) and that could not have gone worse.

I'd much rather us be proactive than reactive. It also pushes ROB to be better knowing he's got a young promising ruck snapping at his heels.
You missed Port's "development" ruck Sam Hayes, he's the future not Ladhams for the mob down the Road, bar for doing his ACL a while back I think there's every chance he'd already have pushed Lycett aside. Same with Freo Lloyd Meek backing up Sean Darcy, both similar ages.
 

Vader

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Strachan is neither young nor promising. He is providing no pressure to ROB's position as number one ruck.
He's not supposed to. He's there as a cheap "break glass in case of emergency" player, i.e. someone who is ready to come in if ROB does an ACL.

ROB's long-term replacement should/will be drafted in 2022 or 2023.
 

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