Autopsy AFL 2025 Round 14 - Hawks v Crows Fri June 13th 7:40pm AEST (UTAS STADIUM)

[PenfoldsFan]

The point you are overlooking is that you have a lot of time to recover from a dodgy free kick early in the game. The later in the game a dodgy free kick comes, the less time there is to recover. Therefore, dodgy free kicks late in games are more consequential

Not just that, but as players tire, a free kick to take ground unopposed is a huge advantage.
It allows for repeat entries and the ball locked in the forward half against an equally tired defence.

When weve been told that the AFL are monitoring frees within games to keep the margin tight it makes you wonder why they'd go all out to square up the count in a close game as it would seem unnecessary.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Come on man. This is some of the dumbest shit I’ve read on Bigfooty.

The idea that the “AFL want X team to win the flag” is diabolically stupid.

You know whats even more stupid, that the reason Vic club supporters say the AFL favour heartland clubs is because thats where the majority of supporters reside which is where the most money is to be made, yet the same Vic club supporters refuse to acknowledge that the AFL would encourage heartland flags to reap more memberships and money from that same market.

Its a complete contradiction.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Hahahahahaha

Your delusional and an idiot if you think Hawthorn is “given a ride”

Lol, you literally got 12 in a row against us when 71pts down in GR.
We are 71pts up, so obviously 'first to the ball' which is the line often thrown around to justify a positive FK count, yet we had 12 in a row paid against us to the team 71pts down who using the same logic, must have been 'late to the ball'.

A complete contradiction.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Lol, you literally got 12 in a row against us when 71pts down in GR.
We are 71pts up, so obviously 'first to the ball' which is the line often thrown around to justify a positive FK count, yet we had 12 in a row paid against us to the team 71pts down who using the same logic, must have been 'late to the ball'.

A complete contradiction.

Tin foil has infiltrated your brain

Hope you recover, but you will still be a port fan unfortunately

Did you learn the word “contradiction” today

Saturday school?

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Tin foil has infiltrated your brain

Hope you recover, but you will still be a port fan unfortunately

So you're saying you've got no valid argument in response to verifiable stats.
We knew that already.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

So you're saying you've got no valid argument in response to verifiable stats.
We knew that already.

I wouldn’t trust your ability to read any more than I would trust your football knowledge

Shhhhhhhh

 

[PenfoldsFan]

I wouldn’t trust your ability to read any more than I would trust your football knowledge

Shhhhhhhh

Perhaps you could trust the knowledge of fellow Hawk nuftie RCAB who famously asked when was the last time a team received less than 11 frees in a game...a mere 5 days after GWS received 4 in a game, lol.
Birds of a feather and all that..

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Perhaps you could trust the knowledge of fellow Hawk nuftie RCAB who famously asked when was the last time a team received less than 11 frees in a game...a mere 5 days after GWS received 4 in a game, lol.
Birds of a feather and all that..

Yawn

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

You know whats even more stupid, that the reason Vic club supporters say the AFL favour heartland clubs is because thats where the majority of supporters reside which is where the most money is to be made, yet the same Vic club supporters refuse to acknowledge that the AFL would encourage heartland flags to reap more memberships and money from that same market.

Its a complete contradiction.

Vic bias conspiracy mention. Cool.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Has had games of 15, 18, 19, 19, 20, 21 this season.

Hardly consistency worth of an A grade label.

Consistently been one of our best and still impacting games without padded stats.

 

[Shueygod]

Consistently been one of our best and still impacting games without padded stats.

What would you consider A grade though? Would he be a top 30 mid in the league?
Probably on the outskirts of 30.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

What would you consider A grade though? Would he be a top 30 mid in the league?
Probably on the outskirts of 30.

Of course he would.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I must admit I've never ever understood this whole "If you don't make a bet with me, then you're wrong and I win the argument!!" mentality.

1. Many people don't gamble.
2. Even if they do, they won't gamble with some random unknown stranger.
3. It's a freaking opinion forum, why the need to take it so seriously that you have to gamble actual money on it?

Exactly. I throw $5 on bets here and there but I’m not gonna gamble anything significant with a random bloke talking shit on the internet. If that means he wins the moral battle England style then so be it. Immaturity at its finest.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Cold?

Yeah, 3 degrees or something.

 

[Shueygod]

Of course he would.

Players I think are clearly better and brackets a toss up:
Adelaide - Dawson & Rankine
Brisbane - Neale (Mccluggage) & Dunkley)
Carlton - Cripps (Hewett & Walsh)
Collingwood - Daicos
Essendon - Merrett
Fremantle - Brayshaw & Serong (Young)
Geelong - Smith (Holmes)
Gold Coast - Anderson & Rowell
GWS - Green (Callaghan)
Hawks - Day
Melbourne - Petracca
North - Sheezel (LDU)
Port Adelaide - Rozee & Butters (JHF)
Richmond
Saint Kilda
Sydney - Gulden, Heeney (Warner)
West Coast
Western Bulldogs - Bont (Richards, Treloar & Libba)

Probably in the 25-35 range, not sure whether that’s a genuine A grader.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Players I think are clearly better and brackets a toss up:
Adelaide - Dawson & Rankine
Brisbane - Neale (Mccluggage) & Dunkley)
Carlton - Cripps (Hewett & Walsh)
Collingwood - Daicos
Essendon - Merrett
Fremantle - Brayshaw & Serong (Young)
Geelong - Smith (Holmes)
Gold Coast - Anderson & Rowell
GWS - Green (Callaghan)
Hawks - Day
Melbourne - Petracca
North - Sheezel (LDU)
Port Adelaide - Rozee & Butters (JHF)
Richmond
Saint Kilda
Sydney - Gulden, Heeney (Warner)
West Coast
Western Bulldogs - Bont (Richards, Treloar & Libba)
Y
Probably in the 25-35 range, not sure whether that’s a genuine A grader.

Good for you.

Your opinion carries zero weight when you are the same poster who said he’s inconsistent, and especially in the face of actual data metrics.

 

[Shueygod]

Good for you.

Your opinion carries zero weight when you are the same poster who said he’s inconsistent, and especially in the face of actual data metrics.

Sure, there’s currently at least 18 midfielders in front of him in the AFLCA with a bunch of the mids I mentioned missing significant time this year.

Where do you believe he ranks as a mid? Top 20?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Sure, there’s currently at least 18 midfielders in front of him in the AFLCA with a bunch of the mids I mentioned missing significant time this year.

Where do you believe he ranks as a mid? Top 20?

Who cares where I rate him.

You said he was inconsistent, not an A grader. He’s the 18th rated player in the comp.

How does he have such a high rating and how does he finish top 3 in the B&F every year if he’s not consistent?

 

[Mr Meow]

Of course he would.

That's for round 13, not the season.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Newcombe is ranked 44th this season, which is obviously still great. We can't really compare to 2024 yet because he finished on an unbelievable tear, pushing him up to 20th. Similar to 2023, so obviously season to season he is quite consistent. If he has a tremendous finish again he should push up to a similar area for 2025. He's not there yet.

He's probably right on the border of A and B grade (closer to A) depending on which random part of the season you picked.

 

[hk89]

That's for round 13, not the season.

Are you sure on that? The twitter image says under the title "Rating is based on a rolling two-year weighted sum, up to a maximum of 40 matches". My reading is that it is the rolling two-year rating as of round 13. The website link doesn't seem to let you choose that option, you can only look at 10 or 5 game windows or full years.

So the fact he is 18th over a two year rolling window, despite falling a bit this year (largely due to regular tags after Day was injured) actually proves the point about him being consistent over that period.

Some players did better in 2024, some have done better in 2025, but many of those didn't do well in both years, but Jai has done well enough across both seasons that he's overall 18th on a two year rolling period (which I actually found surprising, but that seems to be what those numbers are saying, NOT just the numbers for round 13 given the caption under the title of the twitter image).

 

[Mr Meow]

Are you sure on that? The twitter image says under the title "Rating is based on a rolling two-year weighted sum, up to a maximum of 40 matches". My reading is that it is the rolling two-year rating as of round 13. The website link doesn't seem to let you choose that option, you can only look at 10 or 5 game windows or full years.

So the fact he is 18th over a two year rolling window, despite falling a bit this year (largely due to regular tags after Day was injured) actually proves the point about him being consistent over that period.

Some players did better in 2024, some have done better in 2025, but many of those didn't do well in both years, but Jai has done well enough across both seasons that he's overall 18th on a two year rolling period (which I actually found surprising, but that seems to be what those numbers are saying, NOT just the numbers for round 13 given the caption under the title of the twitter image).

Oh right, I'm not sure. That might make sense. I just know he was 20th in 2024 and is 44th this season. For a side's main midfielder (given Day's absences), you could argue that's more in the "very good" rather than "uber elite" range. Almost all of the players above are midfielders. 16 were in 2024, 30 are in 2015.

You are doing incredibly well to be ranked around 15th-30th of all midfielders in the league each season. It's up to individual people exactly how elite by position people class that as.

As a reference point, Ablett was ranked around the 30th best midfielder in the comp in 2018 when he returned to Geelong. Closer to A+ by the same ratings system are Holmes and Smith - the 6th and 8th best midfielders in 2025 so far.

Newcombe is still pretty young and so could keep climbing the rankings the next couple of years.

 

[hk89]

Oh right, I'm not sure. That might make sense. I just know he was 20th in 2024 and is 44th this season. For a side's main midfielder (given Day's absences), you could argue that's more in the "very good" rather than "uber elite" range. Almost all of the players above are midfielders. 16 were in 2024, 30 are in 2015.

You are doing incredibly well to be ranked around 15th-30th of all midfielders in the league each season. It's up to individual people exactly how elite by position people class that as.

As a reference point, Ablett was ranked around the 30th best midfielder in the comp in 2018 when he returned to Geelong. Closer to A+ by the same ratings system are Holmes and Smith - the 6th and 8th best midfielders in 2025 so far.

Newcombe is still pretty young and so could keep climbing the rankings the next couple of years.

Yes, I don't think you can call him elite based on this year's output, partly he was out of form early in the season compared to last year, and then when Day went down he took the tag most weeks.

He is not being tagged because he's a superstar, he's been tagged because our best mid without Day, and we don't bat deep enough so currently, if Jai has a bad day, we don't have others who can take up the slack (especially without Worpel). Basically it makes us go from an "ok" midfield group to a well below average group if he can't shake the tag. He was tagged sometimes last year, but hasn't had a lot of practice yet at the best way to remain productive with a heavy tag. I think without a tag and when in form he's borderline elite, basically at the bottom of the group I'd call elite.

Hopefully he gets better at breaking the tag. The point still stands, that you can't really accuse him of being very inconsistent with the rolling two year ranking where he's 18th because he's been very good to borderline elite two years in a row, and a lot of people on the 2024 and 2025 lists were only very good in one of those years, and a rolling two year window rewards consistency over the two year period above only one year of standout performance.

We have a few young emerging mids who need more development, but when they get more games into them, and the improvement that comes from that, we'll be less vulnerable to having our #1 mid tagged, but it is a proven tactic against us for now, and will likely continue to happen until Day returns. Unfortunately, given the current timeline, it is entirely possible he'll be back too late to have a big impact on our ladder position, and I can see a big logjam forming around 2nd or 3th all the way to 12th place again this year, and our second half of the season looks a little harder than the first I think, so we are not even guaranteed finals yet, although these last two wins against dogs and crows takes a little pressure off.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes, I don't think you can call him elite based on this year's output, partly he was out of form early in the season compared to last year, and then when Day went down he took the tag most weeks.

He is not being tagged because he's a superstar, he's been tagged because our best mid without Day, and we don't bat deep enough so currently, if Jai has a bad day, we don't have others who can take up the slack (especially without Worpel). Basically it makes us go from an "ok" midfield group to a well below average group if he can't shake the tag. He was tagged sometimes last year, but hasn't had a lot of practice yet at the best way to remain productive with a heavy tag. I think without a tag and when in form he's borderline elite, basically at the bottom of the group I'd call elite.

Hopefully he gets better at breaking the tag. The point still stands, that you can't really accuse him of being very inconsistent with the rolling two year ranking where he's 18th because he's been very good to borderline elite two years in a row, and a lot of people on the 2024 and 2025 lists were only very good in one of those years, and a rolling two year window rewards consistency over the two year period above only one year of standout performance.

We have a few young emerging mids who need more development, but when they get more games into them, and the improvement that comes from that, we'll be less vulnerable to having our #1 mid tagged, but it is a proven tactic against us for now, and will likely continue to happen until Day returns. Unfortunately, given the current timeline, it is entirely possible he'll be back too late to have a big impact on our ladder position, and I can see a big logjam forming around 2nd or 3th all the way to 12th place again this year, and our second half of the season looks a little harder than the first I think, so we are not even guaranteed finals yet, although these last two wins against dogs and crows takes a little pressure off.

Agreed with all of that.

For what it's worth I think Newcombe's a great player, especially at his best when he's combining inside/outside play together and doing big damage with his disposals. At times this season that hasn't been the case or he's had quiet games. Other stretches like the last 8-10 games of 2024 he's been one of the very best midfielders in the comp (like top 5).

I rate the potential of Hawthorn's full strength midfield if Day can ever put 20 games in a row together again. Everything would have to go right for it all to click in time in 2025 but really, how many teams are playing outstanding football consistently? Not many.

 

[Gaspard]

You watched a quarter and abit and decided that offering such an uninformed option was worthwhile

No

I was clear on what I was judging from. The question I asked was more to the point. I am interested in the tactics the teams bring to games, and saw the suggestion of one there. I would like more evidence before coming to a conclusion, and would be keen for people who watch more Hawthorn games than I do to venture an opinion. Nothing more, so don't get so defensive.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Barrass and Sicily.

Not convinced Newcombe is an A grader let alone Ward/Mackenzie being sure things, he’s great on his day but doesn’t have the consistency.

Just think the list profile is way off to be a contender now or in the future.

They clearly aren’t in contention now, if you call this contention I see how you may be confused.

Newcombe definitely is, Ward will be, Mackenzie has the talent.

Will Day? You didn’t mention.