After Round 8: How Do The Top 9 Teams Stack Up?

[ShockersBoy11]

I reckon if we can beat some top teams, we'll prove we have just a good a chance as anyone.

 

[gungho]

Just so we're clear, a flat track bully dominates inferior opposition and loses against the best teams. In what scenario have either happened in regards to West Coast this season?
Our biggest win has been by 40 points and our 2 losses have come against teams below us, who both could miss out on the top 8.

I don't know. I think the flat track thing is just as much about you winning at home and losing on the road.

 

[AndysAngels]

I don't know. I think the flat track thing is just as much about you winning at home and losing on the road.

Past years worth (back to round 8 last year) of non-MCG away games:

+10 Win v Port Adelaide
+42 Win v North Melbourne
+29 Win v Adelaide
+1 Win v GWS
+49 Win v Brisbane
-8 Loss v Dogs
+8 Win v Port

7 games for 6 wins. Wins in Victoria, Adelaide, NSW, Queensland. But we 'lose on the road'. Nope, we just cant play at the G, that I'm happy to cop.

But hey, as someone said before, don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative!

To get back on track, interesting thread. Most of those teams have pretty much had their pants pulled down at some point, so it's shaping up as a pretty even year.

 

[boydee]

Check the interstate record of your precious Bullies this year, then get back to us with who the real flat trackers are in 2017.

Probably due to injuries though, right? So brave.

It could have something to do with injuries. West Coast at full strength besides Natinui last week and dogs missing Wallis, Morris, Murphy, Dickson, Cloke, Stringer, Roughead from best 22. Come up with a decent post mate.

 

[Ishmael_]

It could have something to do with injuries. West Coast at full strength besides Natinui last week and dogs missing Wallis, Morris, Murphy, Dickson, Cloke, Stringer, Roughead from best 22. Come up with a decent post mate.

You've played 28 players for the year. You might have injuries, but it's not as if they've been absent all your loses - you're pretty settled.

We're missing Naitanui, Lycett and Cripps from our 22 - Nelson would likely play.

 

[Igloo]

Check the interstate record of your precious Bullies this year, then get back to us with who the real flat trackers are in 2017.

Probably due to injuries though, right? So brave.

Dogs are flat trackers? Our biggest winning margin is 32 points against Brisbane. The way we're playing at the moment is more like a track filled with deathtraps and like... wolves biting our legs, or something, only to die at the finish line, but our corpse conveniently fell over the line making us the winner.

 

[wing it]

Dogs are flat trackers? Our biggest winning margin is 32 points against Brisbane. The way we're playing at the moment is more like a track filled with deathtraps and like... wolves biting our legs, or something, only to die at the finish line, but our corpse conveniently fell over the line making us the winner.

Now you know how we feel.

 

[Ishmael_]

The top 9 is seriously bizarre, on form I'd probably rank them like this - but I don't have any real confidence in any team at the moment.

1. GWS
2. West Coast
3. St Kilda
4. Port Adelaide
5. Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Richmond
9. Geelong

And even ranking them like that doesn't convince me that any team there has an especially stronger claim on the premiership than another.

 

[wing it]

I suspect there will come a point where two or three teams assert themselves as the clear best in the comp. What we are seeing now is just some anomalous series of results.

I'm expecting those teams to be GWS and the Bulldogs.

 

[JackFlash]

Well, isn't this Some Season we're seeing.
If you haven't looked at the ladder since the dust settled today, let me summarise it for you: it starts with 3 teams on 24 points and continues with 6 more on 20 points.
It's not until 10th and 11th that you get two wins behind top spot on 16 points.

With the year's dramatic fall for Sydney and Hawthorn as well as Port's return and the rise of St Kilda, plus the last two weeks of Adelaide shockers, this season has certainly been unpredictable. To say the current top 9 is cemented would be folly.

But in an attempt to get a better understanding of how teams are tracking in terms of opposing team quality, I have drawn a line through the ladder after the last 20-point team (Fremantle at 9th) and run some numbers.

Here's the meat of it, presented in ladder order:
1. Adelaide
Vs Top 9: 3 Matches W3
Vs Bot 9: 5 Matches W3L2
2. GWS
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W2L2
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
3. West Coast
Vs Top 9: 5 Matches W4L1*
Vs Bot 9: 3 Matches W2L1
4. Port Adelaide
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
5. Geelong
Vs Top 9: 2 Matches W2*
Vs Bot 9: 6 Matches W3L3
6. St Kilda
Vs Top 9: 3 Matches W1L2
Vs Bot 9: 5 Matches W4L1
7. Richmond
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
8. Western Bulldogs
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
9. Fremantle
Vs Top 9: 5 Matches W2L3*
Vs Bot 9: 3 Matches W3

*Geelong, West Coast and Fremantle are the only teams to have recorded an interstate win vs Top 9 teams, with one apiece.

Some observations:
- Geelong has had the easiest draw so far with only 2 of their 8 matches vs top 9 teams. Adelaide and St Kilda have also had it a bit easier, with 3 of their 8 against Top 9. On the other hand, Fremantle and West Coast have had it a little harder than average, playing 5 of their 9 matches so far against Top 9 teams.
- Lions and mice: Geelong and Adelaide have registered losses against Bot 9 opponents only.
- The real flat trackers? Port, Richmond and the Bulldogs are all unbeaten (W4) vs Bot 9, but sit on one win from 4 outings vs Top 9.

That's what I notice straight up. I'm sure there are other factoids and perspectives to be wrangled out of this data so I'm interested to read what everyone else sees in it.

Also if anyone wants the detailed data (specific opponent W/L for each team) to do their own analysis, let me know and I can post that as well.

Peace

Geelong has had the easiest draw so far ( No games at home)with only 2 of their 8 matches vs top 9 teams. Adelaide and St Kilda have also had it a bit easier, with 3 of their 8 against Top 9. On the other hand, Fremantle and West Coast have had it a little harder than average, ( Dockers play their 6th home game this week, Eagles have played four) playing 5 of their 9 matches so far against Top 9 teams.

I'm always bemused by this Geelong have had it easy business, they have played NO home games so far this season compared to 9 between Eagles and Dockers!

 

[Coaster2012]

WCE supporters very sensitive about flat track bully term. Desperately wanting to pass the flag.

Competition very close...analysis complete

Considering we are only 1 of 3 teams to beat a top 8 side away, and beat the doggies on Friday night last week. We have every reason to be sensitive about it because its just not...well true

No longer applies??

You have played no contenders away from home yet. Some may argue Port I don't think they are genuine.

You lost to the Hawks at the G which was god awful.

Flat track bully is 100% real still.

So please tell me, what team has beaten a real contender away from home this year? Surely every team should be under the same microscope? What metric is being used for Eagles being labeled this? I guarantee you, there would be at least a dozen teams that would be more suitable candidates than WC. How can a team be 3rd on the ladder and be labeled a bully? lol it's just ****ing strawman BS.

The truth is WC can't play the MCG, just like many teams can't play Domain.

 

[Bokonon_]

I suspect there will come a point where two or three teams assert themselves as the clear best in the comp. What we are seeing now is just some anomalous series of results.

I'm expecting those teams to be GWS and the Bulldogs.

Might be later in the year for us, we've got some issues to sort and hopefully be in better shape after the bye. Until then every point is gold.

 

[Kram]

West Coast aren't so much flat trackers, just hopeless on the MCG.

 

[underthestars]

I reckon if we can beat some top teams, we'll prove we have just a good a chance as anyone.

if you can, then you will.

 

[theyellowsash]

We don't deserve to be in the conversation, surprised shit teams with a new gameplan but now it's been figured out and we will soon be back where we belong

 

[The Falcon Strike]

This year more than any - I think think splitting between bottom 9 and top 9 is almost negligible.

Who would know which Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, Hawthorn will decide to turn up?

Or whether Adelaide will decide to stay in the change rooms for 30 minutes without warning

When the bottom (or near bottom) team on the ladder can be 64-0 up against the best side - I reckon we have a season that feels unprecedented in terms of evenness*.

* Will probably be wrong

 

[gungho]

Past years worth (back to round 8 last year) of non-MCG away games:

+10 Win v Port Adelaide
+42 Win v North Melbourne
+29 Win v Adelaide
+1 Win v GWS
+49 Win v Brisbane
-8 Loss v Dogs
+8 Win v Port

7 games for 6 wins. Wins in Victoria, Adelaide, NSW, Queensland. But we 'lose on the road'. Nope, we just cant play at the G, that I'm happy to cop.

But hey, as someone said before, don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative!

To get back on track, interesting thread. Most of those teams have pretty much had their pants pulled down at some point, so it's shaping up as a pretty even year.

Isn't the "MCG" part of being on the road. Seems pointless to take it out if you're going to go to this level of analysis.

 

[AndysAngels]

Isn't the "MCG" part of being on the road. Seems pointless to take it out if you're going to go to this level of analysis.

The argument that we are 'flat track bullies' because we win at home and lose away is incorrect. We lose at the MCG and otherwise have a very good interstate record.

But if you want to add in the 4 MCG games we've played in that time, we are 8-4 interstate. Still above average. Still not flack track bullies on the home/away metric.

 

[Substance]

Check the interstate record of your precious Bullies this year, then get back to us with who the real flat trackers are in 2017.

Probably due to injuries though, right? So brave.

Are you actually denying we'd be 8-0 or 7-1 if not for us again having the most injuries in the top 8? The fact that our biggest loss has been 16 points is a testament to our depth, despite losing 3 players last season who are all arguably best 22 at their new clubs.

The "So Brave" meme died when we won 4 finals in a row due to our unmatched bravery.

 

[demondavey]

Lol I know who I will be backing to win later in the year when it matters and it isn't a few of the teams above.

Where teams have played and losing margins are neglected here which doesn't surprise me Coz it doesn't fit the argument above.

Dogs could lose the next 2 and I still think we are yet to play anyone we won't beat in September.

Oh yeah, so you're pretty confident? Confident against the Giants, Cats, and Power in September. I know I've absolutely ripped shreds off you, but I genuinely think you can be rolled by the 3 I mentioned, I think you look better against Adelaide and West Coast.

 

[demondavey]

It'll be pretty obvious who the top 4 will be after round 15-16. The sides causing upsets now and tipping the bookies upside down will more than likely run out of steam by then.

WB, Adelaide, GWS, Geelong should round out the 4. I'll say WC and Port could potentially push out the WB and Geelong IF they can shore up some deficincies, I.e. winning on the road

 

[Quinz]

Are you actually denying we'd be 8-0 or 7-1 if not for us again having the most injuries in the top 8? The fact that our biggest loss has been 16 points is a testament to our depth, despite losing 3 players last season who are all arguably best 22 at their new clubs.

The "So Brave" meme died when we won 4 finals in a row due to our unmatched bravery.

There's literally no way to tell, but I'd suggest with all teams at full strength you'd still be 5-3. So much depends on performance on the day, not just injuries. You've had a much stronger side than Fremantle the last two times you've played but they've beaten you comfortably.

 

[Mattdougie]

Oh yeah, so you're pretty confident? Confident against the Giants, Cats, and Power in September. I know I've absolutely ripped shreds off you, but I genuinely think you can be rolled by the 3 I mentioned, I think you look better against Adelaide and West Coast.

See this is why I don't waste my time with you and I said I'm confident so I am.

I CLEARLY said "yet to play anyone we won't beat in September"

We haven't played Port Geelong or Adelaide

Torn shreds off me ?? Hahahaha yeah ok

 

[demondavey]

See this is why I don't waste my time with you and I said I'm confident so I am.

I CLEARLY said "yet to play anyone we won't beat in September"

We haven't played Port Geelong or Adelaide

Torn shreds off me ?? Hahahaha yeah ok

You just did waste your time though?

 

[raskolnikov]

There is daylight growing between 1-10 and 11-18

Don't really agree. I don't think Richmond, Freo or even Geelong are safe in the top 10 and I wouldn't put it past either Hawthorn or Sydney to make a late charge. Essendon are also an unknown quantity, with the team starting to gel, plus a favourable draw.