Delisted Ben Lennon [delisted]

[Kangaroos4eva]

The big mistake in the current North/Carlton comparison, is that the lists aren't really good subjects for comparison. We have focused on KPP's & flankers, which is the smart move considering the picks we have had since 2010. Carlton are replacing everything, after stuffing things up 10 years ago.

Melbourne would make a better comparison for Carlton.

I agree to an extent, but making a rubbish call like miles ahead of another list is laughable and needed to be called out.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I agree to an extent, but making a rubbish call like miles ahead of another list is laughable and needed to be called out.

I agree. Focaults comments deserve scrutiny.

I see Carlton as Melbourne 2014-15. Still looking to get their base in order.

North on the other hand have the future spine intact, and some reasonably good icing. We just need to solely focus on the engine room. I think we actually need less players than Carlton to become a contender, but our problem is that the players we need are also the hardest ones to get.

 

[Richo83]

I get that, but let's be frank, most of this stuff is highly subjective and highly susceptible to bias.

It's basically garbage when it comes to solid analytical data in a bigfooty discussion.

We can agree that the improvement curve for 18-23 players "should" be exponentially greater than for 23-28 year old players, but there are far too many factors at play to conclude that team 18-23 "must" be better than team 23-28 in 3 years time.

Okay, but what correlation does this have to wins in 3 years time considering the contemporary dynamic nature of list changes?

I dislike the blues and the roos so I doubt I'm biased here. As for the curve argument, it's not that the 18-23 period yields kore growth, it's that the 18 year old has the 18-23 year period and the 23-28 year period to develop, in which you're capable of recognizing that talented teenagers will surpass limited 23 year olds.

Amd just because free agency exists doesn't mean that the talent of your draftees is not important. I see free agency as a tool to fill gaps on your list, not the building blocks, goven free agents often cost a lot to try and entice over, especially restricted ones. Simple fact is, even with free agency, most of the stars of premiership clubs have been home grown. Rance, Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Liberatore, Wood, Picken, Johannisen, Stringer, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Rioli etc.

 

[Richo83]

Again, based off what. You can rubbish the stats all you like, but stats like metres gained, goal and scores assists say a lot about a player and at the moment, stats are the only unbiased thing we have got to judge these kids on atm. SPS may well end up a better player than Clarke in the future, but at the moment, quantitative stats, not the eye of the beholder, suggest otherwise at this stage, which I stated quite clearly in my original posts. The eye of the beholder type of reasoning has burnt BF posters more often than not since the age of Tambling.

Again, stats are a dangerous way to measure quality of youth given players often change in output so much at this age. SPS especially, it was his first season and he hit a wall. All you can use is personal assessments, it may be less objective than you'd like but it's the best we've got. Plus, fans use stats for their own biased ends anyway.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I dislike the blues and the roos so I doubt I'm biased here. As for the curve argument, it's not that the 18-23 period yields kore growth, it's that the 18 year old has the 18-23 year period and the 23-28 year period to develop, in which you're capable of recognizing that talented teenagers will surpass limited 23 year olds.

This tends to be blown out of proportion.

Amd just because free agency exists doesn't mean that the talent of your draftees is not important. I see free agency as a tool to fill gaps on your list, not the building blocks, goven free agents often cost a lot to try and entice over, especially restricted ones. Simple fact is, even with free agency, most of the stars of premiership clubs have been home grown. Rance, Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Liberatore, Wood, Picken, Johannisen, Stringer, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Rioli etc.

The main correlation in that group of players is where they were taken in the draft. North have not had these picks, but will be getting them over the next 13 months.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I agree. Focaults comments deserve scrutiny.

I see Carlton as Melbourne 2014-15. Still looking to get their base in order.

North on the other hand have the future spine intact, and some reasonably good icing. We just need to solely focus on the engine room. I think we actually need less players than Carlton to become a contender, but our problem is that the players we need are also the hardest ones to get.

I probably rate Carlton's list a little higher, but I do agree that their list is lacking a little bit, particularly KPF and midfield wise, but they are on the right track for their midfield at least with this draft. A bit depends on where young Curnow plays, as Casboult isn't getting any younger and he's not a super high goal kicker anyway, as well.

North's issues are primarily a-grade midfield talent, needing a pacey (and classy) outside mid and maybe another KPF project at this stage. Even a pure small defender (as outside Marley, we have few sub-185cm blokes that can play defence/rebound off HB) wouldn't go astray in the next two drafts.

Both side's defences are pretty well set, North's forward line is a little bit more stable than Carlton's (both need work) and both midfield's need additional high grade talent.

 

[Richo83]

This tends to be blown out of proportion.



The main correlation in that group of players is where they were taken in the draft. North have not had these picks, but will be getting them over the next 13 months.

And that's part of the reason why people see Carltons youth as better, becasue they were more heralded as juniors.

 

[Snake_Baker]

And that's part of the reason why people see Carltons youth as better, becasue they were more heralded as juniors.

I actually think this has a LOT to do with comparisons and is also a reason why talking heads like Wallace think we have nothing but garbage on our list.

We have actually drafted well, when the picks we have had are taken in to consideration.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Again, stats are a dangerous way to measure quality of youth given players often change in output so much at this age. SPS especially, it was his first season and he hit a wall. All you can use is personal assessments, it may be less objective than you'd like but it's the best we've got. Plus, fans use stats for their own biased ends anyway.

And my point still stands, for all we know, SPS could permanently hit the wall in terms of development, we've seen it before and we'll see it again, qualitative evidence on its own is defeated by a degree of bias, you watch a certain player more than another, you follow an opposition club, the media has written more about a player than another, etc, the subjectivity destroys a lot of the credibility. My point, once again, is at this very moment, Clarke has shown more than SPS. Well it is not really the best we've got, the combination of both types of evidence is the best we've got, rather than sorely relying on the eyes of random footy fans. Stats can be used for biased means, looking at you David King, but they can be used in an unbiased manner, as I did with mine as best I could by using the same amount of games(positions)/the same season method.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

And that's part of the reason why people see Carltons youth as better, becasue they were more heralded as juniors.

It is a waiting game in the case of who has the better youth, but making definitive calls based on potential has destroyed many poster's credibility over the years.

 

[Richo83]

And my point still stands, for all we know, SPS could permanently hit the wall in terms of development, we've seen it before and we'll see it again, qualitative evidence on its own is defeated by a degree of bias, you watch a certain player more than another, you follow an opposition club, the media has written more about a player than another, etc, the subjectivity destroys a lot of the credibility. My point, once again, is at this very moment, Clarke has shown more than SPS. Well it is not really the best we've got, the combination of both types of evidence is the best we've got, rather than sorely relying on the eyes of random footy fans. Stats can be used for biased means, looking at you David King, but they can be used in an unbiased manner, as I did with mine as best I could by using the same amount of games(positions)/the same season method.

I don't think you used stats in am unbiased manner just quietly.

SPS's two games against Essendon and his game against Collingwood were better than anything I've seen from Clarke in my opinion. And if you want to use stats, at least compare them at similar ages or seasons.

 

[Richo83]

I actually think this has a LOT to do with comparisons and is also a reason why talking heads like Wallace think we have nothing but garbage on our list.

We have actually drafted well, when the picks we have had are taken in to consideration.

I agree, North have always done a lot with little. But if we're just looking at what's in the pantry not who got the best bargains, I like Carltons list more.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I don't think you used stats in am unbiased manner just quietly.

SPS's two games against Essendon and his game against Collingwood were better than anything I've seen from Clarke in my opinion. And if you want to use stats, at least compare them at similar ages or seasons.

You've hardly been quiet on the subject, so I'm not sure why you bothered putting that part in.

We'll have to agree to disagree, I used stats from the same amount of games/same season/age/position dependant on the circumstances and even identified outliers/circumstances that skewed the stats in favour of a player.

I used career and current season stats, plus there's only six months difference between the two players. Again, that's your opinion and sps probably will be the better player, just not ATM.

 

[THE_GUN]

So which team gets Kelly in 2 years time

North are confident with their father son coming to them
Carlton are also confident with Kelly being a SOS man

Will it be the $$$$ that make his mind up or his Heart

 

[Le Grille]

So which team gets Kelly in 2 years time

North are confident with their father son coming to them
Carlton are also confident with Kelly being a SOS man

Will it be the $$$$ that make his mind up or his Heart

I'd hope North, Carlton won't have much space left after paying all of their stars (relax, im joking, they haven't got any stars , relax, Im joking)

but i hope North.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

So which team gets Kelly in 2 years time

North are confident with their father son coming to them
Carlton are also confident with Kelly being a SOS man

Will it be the $$$$ that make his mind up or his Heart

TBH, I think he'll stay up at gws.

 

[Jesslc]

We shall see. I am more than happy with our list depth and would take it over north. I think you're all a bit delusional with your faith in what are and will be c graders.

Lol yeah right. Youre basing all your arguments on potential. Youll be sorely disappointed on a number of those players.

 

[THE_GUN]

TBH, I think he'll stay up at gws.

I dont think he will stay, He will have done his time and will be looking to come back and cash in on a big contract but would still have 1 eye on a flag

If the Dollars are similar and North are still struggling (which looks like it will be the situation) and Carlton are knocking on the door to the finals (which they should be after 5 years into their rebuild)

Im thinking $1.25 mil a year deal will get him into the Navy Blue jumper

 

[Le Grille]

I dont think he will stay, He will have done his time and will be looking to come back and cash in on a big contract but would still have 1 eye on a flag

If the Dollars are similar and North are still struggling (which looks like it might be the situation) and Carlton are knocking on the door to the finals (which they should be after 15 years into their rebuild)

Im thinking $1.25 mil a year deal will get him into the Navy Blue jumper

EFA

Seriously, though 2 years is enough time to show promise and creep up the ladder, we may improve or we may not but to say we definitely will be struggling is a bit premature. There are a fair few young players on the list that hopefully will improve by then.

 

[THE_GUN]

EFA

Seriously, though 2 years is enough time to show promise and creep up the ladder, we may improve or we may not but to say we definitely will be struggling is a bit premature. There are a fair few young players on the list that hopefully will improve by then.

NO Chance

Carlton have had alot of draft picks and sold off a few assets to fast track their rebuild, Als have had a massive advantage with SOS brown nose 'ing GWS to get some freebies and its already 3 years in after this draft

North doesnt have any players to off load for picks and are just relying on organic picks to rebuild and 'maybe' a FA or 2

Norths rebuild wont show promise for 5 years from where they are this year

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

NO Chance

Carlton have had alot of draft picks and sold off a few assets to fast track their rebuild, Als have had a massive advantage with SOS brown nose 'ing GWS to get some freebies and its already 3 years in after this draft

North doesnt have any players to off load for picks and are just relying on organic picks to rebuild and 'maybe' a FA or 2

Norths rebuild wont show promise for 5 years from where they are this year

 

[Snake_Baker]

I don't think you used stats in am unbiased manner just quietly.

SPS's two games against Essendon and his game against Collingwood were better than anything I've seen from Clarke in my opinion. And if you want to use stats, at least compare them at similar ages or seasons.

With respect to my comrade K4E, SPS and Clark are not a comparison I would make. They are different types of players. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Clark either. I strongly suspect he will become a big outside accumulator similiar in style to Gaff/Laird/Ross and Montagna. The kid only got some continuity at the end of last season and still cracked the top 100 for uncontested disposals (88th). He ranked 5th amongst the RS contenders only finishing 0.7 off top spot, and ahead of the RS winner. I'm tipping he'll climb in to the top 15 to 30 bracket next season provided he stays on the park. DT/SC types would do well to keep him under consideration for their lists.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

With respect to my comrade K4E, SPS and Clark are not a comparison I would make. They are different types of players. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Clark either. I strongly suspect he will become a big outside accumulator similiar in style to Gaff/Laird/Ross and Montagna. The kid only got some continuity at the end of last season and still cracked the top 100 for uncontested disposals (88th). He ranked 5th amongst the RS contenders only finishing 0.7 off top spot, and ahead of the RS winner. I'm tipping he'll climb in to the top 15 to 30 bracket next season provided he stays on the park. DT/SC types would do well to keep him under consideration for their lists.

We didn't have anyone else on our list (youth wise) to compare as that inside and out mid, which Clarke is capable of, sps is a tad more inside.

 

[Le Grille]

NO Chance

Carlton have had alot of draft picks and sold off a few assets to fast track their rebuild, Als have had a massive advantage with SOS brown nose 'ing GWS to get some freebies and its already 3 years in after this draft

North doesnt have any players to off load for picks and are just relying on organic picks to rebuild and 'maybe' a FA or 2

Norths rebuild wont show promise for 5 years from where they are this year

Ignoring Carlton (keep in mind there are 3 blue chip highly probable future a graders) the others are possibles a lot of the GWS players recruited have talent but aren't nailed on certainties. Keep in mind also Carlton have been touted numerous times over the past 15 years as teams tipped to make the next step. I'm not saying they won't be strong in the future but I'm not calling definite just yet.

Time will tell I guess, I'd expect some improvement by then. Not saying that we will be definitely playing finals, but of the players we have lost only Gibson was a regular Mullett played most games but is pretty interchangeable with others on the list we still won 5 games, lost 5 by less than a kick. As only likely exits in the future would be Thompson and Waite, It is not beyond the realms of possibility that we would be showing signs of tangible improvement in two years.

When Laidley quit in 2009 we had a worse quality list and spent two season being poor in 2010 and 2011, Played finals in 2012.

To definitively say we have no chance of showing strong improvement is pretty foolish.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Ignoring Carlton (keep in mind there are 3 blue chip highly probable future a graders) the others are possibles a lot of the GWS players recruited have talent but aren't nailed on certainties. Keep in mind also Carlton have been touted numerous times over the past 15 years as teams tipped to make the next step. I'm not saying they won't be strong in the future but I'm not calling definite just yet.

Time will tell I guess, I'd expect some improvement by then. Not saying that we will be definitely playing finals, but of the players we have lost only Gibson was a regular Mullett played most games but is pretty interchangeable with others on the list we still won 5 games, lost 5 by less than a kick. As only likely exits in the future would be Thompson and Waite, It is not beyond the realms of possibility that we would be showing signs of tangible improvement in two years.

When Laidley quit in 2009 we had a worse quality list and spent two season being poor in 2010 and 2011, Played finals in 2012.

To definitively say we have no chance of showing strong improvement is pretty foolish.

Don't waste your bandwidth on them, these tugger posters aren't worth the time to write a detailed post.