Billy Longer to re-sign.

[George]

What "factual evidence" could it possibly be based on? It's all opinions, no-one has a crystal ball.

You're telling me you cant make an educated guess?

 

[plugger66]

You're telling me you cant make an educated guess?

Yep but that is a guess and not factual evidence.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Good decision. Right now we wouldn't get much in a trade for Longer so we sign him up and see how he goes with a better run next year. Either he overtakes Hickey and he stays as our number one ruck or he at least gets some AFL exposure, increases his value and we can shop him around to find a deal that we like. I rate both players, but I'm unsure how much improvement is left in Longer's around the ground work, and that will ultimately determine who is the better player. No question Longer is the better tap ruckman and is more physical, but right now he's not a factor around the ground while Hickey is very handy in the air and below his knees. If Billy can continue to build his ruck craft while also starting to clunk some marks around the ground he'll be a very valuable player.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Good decision. Right now we wouldn't get much in a trade for Longer so we sign him up and see how he goes with a better run next year. Either he overtakes Hickey and he stays as our number one ruck or he at least gets some AFL exposure, increases his value and we can shop him around to find a deal that we like. I rate both players, but I'm unsure how much improvement is left in Longer's around the ground work, and that will ultimately determine who is the better player. No question Longer is the better tap ruckman and is more physical, but right now he's not a factor around the ground while Hickey is very handy in the air and below his knees. If Billy can continue to build his ruck craft while also starting to clunk some marks around the ground he'll be a very valuable player.

Agree. At present if Billy asked for a trade we would be in a very poor position. And would get back what we gave for him at best IMO - a pick in the 20s. He's had an injury interrupted season and looking like not adding to his AFL tally. We know his true value is much higher than that, shopping him around at the end of this year just wouldn't make sense. Sign him up, and at least that way if a club is interested they have to provide us with a deal that is too good to refuse for him.

Best case, he and Hickey in full health next year keep pushing each other to new limits and throughout the year we work out what the hell to do with two awesome ruckman on our list and a strongly developing Lewis Pierce as our 3rd option.

 

[sobraz]

An apparent ITK referred to Hickeys season this year as 'nice' in another thread.

I perceived it as a very patronising measure of his performance.

Hickey has been top 3 in the comp all season, and has shown himself to be durable. No less than Longer in any case. He's had performances this year that has put in the shade anything Longer has ever done.

After my recent discussions with someone that sits in the coaches box, and has for the last 3 seasons, and referred to Longer with having both hands and feet of concrete, I don't think the coaches faith in Longer is that which such ITK's suggest it is.

It is odd that a player of Hickeys ability and performance has to be constantly defended against apparently connected people that should know better.

A contracted player has far greater trade value that one that can just walk. Or plod even.


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[saintsrfreak]

Wouldn't agree that Hickey has been top 3. Gawn, Goldstein and Naitanui are all pretty clearly ahead, Jacobs most likely as well.

 

[George]

Yep but that is a guess and not factual evidence.

Good try plugger but I said 'based on'. An educated guess based on facts. If you want to have a crack that's fine but at least read my post first.

 

[Masquerade]

Good try plugger but I said 'based on'. An educated guess based on facts. If you want to have a crack that's fine but at least read my post first.

You're the one who's either changing his words or said the wrong thing in the first place.

You said "it's simply an opinion based on what I assume would be factual evidence" and then later said an "educated guess"

Opinions and educated guesses are two different things. An opinion is simply a belief that something is true and you don't necessarily need to back it up. Eg --> Jack Riewoldt is better than his cousin Nick. Completely wrong but everyone is entitled to an opinion.

An educated guess is, however, based at least partially on facts. Something concrete.

 

[plugger66]

Good try plugger but I said 'based on'. An educated guess based on facts. If you want to have a crack that's fine but at least read my post first.

I'm not having a crack. Anyway it doesn't matter. We all have different opinions about players and some will eventually be right or wrong. I rate Hickey clearly ahead of Longer and the club may think the other way. I would hope Hickey has done enough for them to think they maybe wrong.

 

[George]

You're the one who's either changing his words or said the wrong thing in the first place.

You said "it's simply an opinion based on what I assume would be factual evidence" and then later said an "educated guess"

Opinions and educated guesses are two different things. An opinion is simply a belief that something is true and you don't necessarily need to back it up. Eg --> Jack Riewoldt is better than his cousin Nick. Completely wrong but everyone is entitled to an opinion.

An educated guess is, however, based at least partially on facts. Something concrete.

Eh whatever

 

[George]

I'm not having a crack. Anyway it doesn't matter. We all have different opinions about players and some will eventually be right or wrong. I rate Hickey clearly ahead of Longer and the club may think the other way. I would hope Hickey has done enough for them to think they maybe wrong.

My opinion is that they are both good ruckman but I think Longer may end up being the better/starting ruckman. Club probably has a lot more information about each player than I do so their opinion would hold a lot more weight given they know them better than we do.

 

[bergholt]

You're telling me you cant make an educated guess?

Facts are facts. Educated guesses aren't facts. Longer might turn out better than Hickey, he might not, but no-one inside the club or out can be certain either way.

 

[plugger66]

My opinion is that they are both good ruckman but I think Longer may end up being the better/starting ruckman. Club probably has a lot more information about each player than I do so their opinion would hold a lot more weight given they know them better than we do.

Well if they think Longer is better that is a real slap to the performance of Hickey who has been in the top 4ruckmen of the AFL this year especially when it is bloody obvious only one is going to play. Unless Longer dominates Hickey in the practice matches next year I would expect Hickey to be our starting ruckman come round one. He deserves that. And it also depends what the club want with a ruckman. Hits outs mean Hack IMO. Its what you do around the ground and unless you are Goldstein or Gawn most ruckmen struggle to do both but Hickey is getting close as his ruck work improves.

 

[Geary Is GOAT]

Yeah agree the club can't wait for Longer to replace Hickey, that's why they signed him for two years at the end of last year after he could hardly get a game and now play him every week. It's all an elaborate ruse to lull Hickey into a false sense of security before Longer stabs him in the back.

 

[George]

Facts are facts. Educated guesses aren't facts. Longer might turn out better than Hickey, he might not, but no-one inside the club or out can be certain either way.

Please forgive me

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

I mustve drank way more Jim Beam this year than i can remember???
I dont recall anytime that the club has shown any bias between Hickey or Billy.
So far its pretty much been who ever isnt injured has been number 1 ruck option.

 

[kosifantutti]

If the powers that be currently think Longer is a better prospect than Hickey, then I no longer (no pun intended) believe we are in good hands.

 

[NarklesHelmet]

Good news. We as a club can only benefit from it. If Billy puts in a massive pre-season and beats Hickey on merit head-to-head and becomes our starting ruck then great. Hickey has raised the bar very high this year so if Billy can raise it even higher again we will be sitting on a top-3 ruckman in the competition out of whoever wins the starting spot.

 

[dewah07]

i keep wanting to see us try once everyone has tanks

RK Longer Steven Ross
HF Lonie Bruce Greshem
FF Membrey McCartin Hickey

with mccartin elite once the ball hits the ground and members smart enough to zip around and create one on ones and hickey just has the ability to have amazing hands and ball handling attributes, forwards should still have enough pressure which people will worry about.

if needed send bruce higher up the field to create more space

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Should the club trade for Josh Jenkins and Jack Riewoldt just so we can have forwardline depth?

Depth is advantageous if and only if you lose a player of that specific position from your best 22.
Bolstering your first 22 is always advantageous.

Let's just say that trading the surplus ruckman allows us to add a gun midfielder to our list; here are the scenarios:

Keep both
Ruckman doesn't get injured = Gun ruck / Mediocre midfielder
Ruckman gets injured = Gun ruck / Mediocre midfielder

RESULT = Always 1 gun, 1 mediocre

Trade one for gun midfielder
Ruckman doesn't get injured = Gun ruck / Gun midfielder
Ruckman gets injured = Mediocre ruck / Gun midfielder

RESULT = 2 guns OR 1 gun, 1 mediocre

Trading will either be better or break even - in no way is it worse.




*This is not accounting for extraneous variables like dipping form in either our ruckman or the midfielder that's traded in. This could negatively or positively affect either the trade or don't trade scenarios, so it is negated.

How many mids do we have who can slot in if a best 22 mid is injured?

What a ridiculous argument.

Let's trade out an area of strength & so we can add a kid who might make a midfield rotation in the best 22 or might be the next Nathan Wright.

It does not guarantee a GUN midfielder at all. All it guarantees is that you trade out a potentially GUN ruckman.

If you're trading surplus ruckmen then move on Pierce or Holmes. Both unproven & a long way behind Hick & Billy (when they're fit & firing)

Whatever, great to hear that Billy is set to re-commit, now we can move on away from this tedious 'we only need one ruckman' theory.


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[plugger66]

How many mids do we have who can slot in if a best 22 mid is injured?

What a ridiculous argument.

Let's trade out an area of strength & so we can add a kid who might make a midfield rotation in the best 22 or might be the next Nathan Wright.

It does not guarantee a GUN midfielder at all. All it guarantees is that you trade out a potentially GUN ruckman.

If you're trading surplus ruckmen then move on Pierce or Holmes. Both unproven & a long way behind Hick & Billy (when they're fit & firing)

Whatever, great to hear that Billy is set to re-commit, now we can move on away from this tedious 'we only need one ruckman' theory.


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You need at least 3. The question is if only one is playing do you want a potential good trade pick sitting in the seconds.

 

[Savage Kent]

Personally would like to see Longer sign on for another year or two. I think having both Hickey and Longer compete for the number 1 ruck spot has kept both on their toes and is helping both of their development. I think losing Longer would send the message to Hickey that he is the clear number 1 ruck who will continue to be selected regardless of form. Hopefully this is not the case, but could potentially lead to complacency and losing a little bit of hunger, knowing that you don't have Longer banging down the door if his form drops.

Signing on for another year or two also gives time to assess the development of Pierce. If Pierce proves to be a viable back up or becomes good enough to warrant selection, then the club could explore trading Longer. In addition there could be the possibility that a ruckman emerges from another club who may be third or fourth string but good enough to be second choice or press for selection who we could trade in on the cheap.

 

[blktreacle]

Personally would like to see Longer sign on for another year or two. I think having both Hickey and Longer compete for the number 1 ruck spot has kept both on their toes and is helping both of their development. I think losing Longer would send the message to Hickey that he is the clear number 1 ruck who will continue to be selected regardless of form. Hopefully this is not the case, but could potentially lead to complacency and losing a little bit of hunger, knowing that you don't have Longer banging down the door if his form drops.

Signing on for another year or two also gives time to assess the development of Pierce. If Pierce proves to be a viable back up or becomes good enough to warrant selection, then the club could explore trading Longer. In addition there could be the possibility that a ruckman emerges from another club who may be third or fourth string but good enough to be second choice or press for selection who we could trade in on the cheap.

excellent post, you said it much better than i couldve

 

[Savatage]

Everyone needs good ruck depth. Signing Longer makes a lot of sense.

However, Hickey is that far ahead of Longer - that it's not funny.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

You need at least 3. The question is if only one is playing do you want a potential good trade pick sitting in the seconds.

It happens Plugger. We're finally building some depth & that is what a successful club needs.

If a player is contracted but playing VFL then all he can do is play as well as he can & work his arse off.

If, God forbid, Hickey gets injured we have got a ready made replacement (albeit with a slightly different skillset) ready to go.

I don't think Holmes will be kept & wouldnt be surprised if we get a few offers for Pierce (best possibility being a 3rd rounder).


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