Opinion Brian Cook - Carlton's rebuild still has a fair way to go

Which club is more likely to win another flag first?

  • Total voters
    331

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Opine said:
He rejected your mob; albeit politely.
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We didn't have a first rounder and weren't willing to trade a key player out so we couldn't get him anyway

I'm sure our premiership midfield will cope without his addition

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They've made some inroads and a piss easy fixture doesnt hurt. Should improve but wont be a bolter.
 
The trouble with talking about a team's possibility of "improving" is that it's not an absolute judgement ("will we be better than last year?") but a relative judgement ("will we improve more than other teams compared to last year?"). I think at this time of year, every team can look at its list and its game style and pretty easily identify where they can improve, but of course if every team improves to the same absolute degree then they're all bound to keep the same spot on the ladder relative to each other. That's why I think of the AFL these days as a Red Queen's Race, where you probably need to improve by 10% every year just to stay in exactly the same place: getting better, by itself, won't necessarily result in progress.

Looking at the ladder from last season, I think there's at least 13 teams who'd be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals next year. Realistically, Collingwood, GC, NM, Hawthorn and Adelaide could still get a pass mark for failing to make finals given where they are in terms of building their lists, but everyone else would be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals. There are young teams like Freo and Essendon who can realistically expect to improve just because they're going to be one year more experienced and battle-hardened than last year. There are older teams with a core of good players, like St. Kilda, WC and Richmond, who would feel like if they can keep everyone fit and healthy they've still got a shot at achieving something next year as well. Of the teams in the top 8 this year, who would you realistically expect to drop out for next year? GWS looked a bit shaky, but they were hit hard with injuries and still managed to win a final. Everyone's been expecting the cliff to come for Geelong for the last 10 years, but it never seems to arrive: they were one Max Gawn mark away from finishing top of the ladder this year.

So will Carlton improve this year? Probably. But to be a "breakout" team (presuming that means to make finals) they're going to need to do more than improve, they're going to need to improve a whole s**t-ton relative to all the teams above them. When you look at the potential improvement that all of those 12 teams above Carlton could also make, though, it becomes tricky to suggest which 5 teams Carlton are likely to leap-frog in order to make it into 8th spot. Given how competitive the league is at the moment, and given the realistic expectations which have been placed on so many teams, there's going to be a lot of disappointed fans and under-pressure coaches come the end of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlton make finals next year, but I would be equally unsurprised to see them miss out.
 
JP2 said:
The trouble with talking about a team's possibility of "improving" is that it's not an absolute judgement ("will we be better than last year?") but a relative judgement ("will we improve more than other teams compared to last year?"). I think at this time of year, every team can look at its list and its game style and pretty easily identify where they can improve, but of course if every team improves to the same absolute degree then they're all bound to keep the same spot on the ladder relative to each other. That's why I think of the AFL these days as a Red Queen's Race, where you probably need to improve by 10% every year just to stay in exactly the same place: getting better, by itself, won't necessarily result in progress.

Looking at the ladder from last season, I think there's at least 13 teams who'd be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals next year. Realistically, Collingwood, GC, NM, Hawthorn and Adelaide could still get a pass mark for failing to make finals given where they are in terms of building their lists, but everyone else would be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals. There are young teams like Freo and Essendon who can realistically expect to improve just because they're going to be one year more experienced and battle-hardened than last year. There are older teams with a core of good players, like St. Kilda, WC and Richmond, who would feel like if they can keep everyone fit and healthy they've still got a shot at achieving something next year as well. Of the teams in the top 8 this year, who would you realistically expect to drop out for next year? GWS looked a bit shaky, but they were hit hard with injuries and still managed to win a final. Everyone's been expecting the cliff to come for Geelong for the last 10 years, but it never seems to arrive: they were one Max Gawn mark away from finishing top of the ladder this year.

So will Carlton improve this year? Probably. But to be a "breakout" team (presuming that means to make finals) they're going to need to do more than improve, they're going to need to improve a whole sh*t-ton relative to all the teams above them. When you look at the potential improvement that all of those 12 teams above Carlton could also make, though, it becomes tricky to suggest which 5 teams Carlton are likely to leap-frog in order to make it into 8th spot. Given how competitive the league is at the moment, and given the realistic expectations which have been placed on so many teams, there's going to be a lot of disappointed fans and under-pressure coaches come the end of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlton make finals next year, but I would be equally unsurprised to see them miss out.
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This post is far far too good, on topic, reasonable and rational to be in this thread.


 
Cant see us losing a game this year. Paddy Dow smoky for the brownlow but Walsh will pip him with 42 votes.
 
Toump Ass said:
Cripps? Not an elite player. He’s kind of like Alex Neal-Bullen, and that’s a conpliment. You need good, reliable players that occasionally play a very good game like Alex Neal-Bullen. Alex is a star actually, I might be giving Cripps a bit too much credit really. Feel like Cripps has hit his ceiling and is now on the way down sadly. I reckon Alex might have another gear in him though.
At this stage, if Cripps could reach ANB’s current level, you’d be pretty happy as a Blues supporter I’d say.
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This some professional level trolling right here 😂
 
JP2 said:
The trouble with talking about a team's possibility of "improving" is that it's not an absolute judgement ("will we be better than last year?") but a relative judgement ("will we improve more than other teams compared to last year?"). I think at this time of year, every team can look at its list and its game style and pretty easily identify where they can improve, but of course if every team improves to the same absolute degree then they're all bound to keep the same spot on the ladder relative to each other. That's why I think of the AFL these days as a Red Queen's Race, where you probably need to improve by 10% every year just to stay in exactly the same place: getting better, by itself, won't necessarily result in progress.

Looking at the ladder from last season, I think there's at least 13 teams who'd be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals next year. Realistically, Collingwood, GC, NM, Hawthorn and Adelaide could still get a pass mark for failing to make finals given where they are in terms of building their lists, but everyone else would be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals. There are young teams like Freo and Essendon who can realistically expect to improve just because they're going to be one year more experienced and battle-hardened than last year. There are older teams with a core of good players, like St. Kilda, WC and Richmond, who would feel like if they can keep everyone fit and healthy they've still got a shot at achieving something next year as well. Of the teams in the top 8 this year, who would you realistically expect to drop out for next year? GWS looked a bit shaky, but they were hit hard with injuries and still managed to win a final. Everyone's been expecting the cliff to come for Geelong for the last 10 years, but it never seems to arrive: they were one Max Gawn mark away from finishing top of the ladder this year.

So will Carlton improve this year? Probably. But to be a "breakout" team (presuming that means to make finals) they're going to need to do more than improve, they're going to need to improve a whole sh*t-ton relative to all the teams above them. When you look at the potential improvement that all of those 12 teams above Carlton could also make, though, it becomes tricky to suggest which 5 teams Carlton are likely to leap-frog in order to make it into 8th spot. Given how competitive the league is at the moment, and given the realistic expectations which have been placed on so many teams, there's going to be a lot of disappointed fans and under-pressure coaches come the end of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlton make finals next year, but I would be equally unsurprised to see them miss out.
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Nice in theory, but teams also go backwards and things fall apart from there. Look at Collingwood this year - bundled out by their poor club culture and list management. They also would have imagined improving 10% in 2021.

St Kilda would have expected to improve on their 2020, but missed the 8.

Freo and Essendon might bank on improvement, but The Dockers best player is in their mid 30's, their captain just went in for surgery and they've now also lost one of their few topline players. The Bombers go in to 2022 with one of the tougher draws and only just scraped into the Top 8 with the lowest number of wins since 2014. It's also very easy to overstated how 'battle hardened' they are, and they are as much if not more a work-in-progress.

It's the same tired question every season 'who does club X finish' above to get in, and invariably there are teams from the previous season who made the 8 that miss out.

Does that mean Carlton is any certainty to make it? Of course not, but they need to be included in a general set of teams who's target should be to make the finals based on their list, demographics of their senior squad and timeline of their rebuild.
 

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aussierulesrules said:
This post is far far too good, on topic, reasonable and rational to be in this thread.


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And no doubt it will be picked apart by Carlton supporters

Oops I just see the poster above backed up my point

Sent from my SM-G981B using Tapatalk
 
La Dispute said:
Weller, Neale, Hill, Langdon, Cerra are some obvious recent examples.

The Dockers leak like a sieve.

You don't think the Cats got Cameron for free?
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You could also add Harley Bennell and Jesse Hogan too. But Bennell had an injured body and Hogan had issues too.

But the players you listed, only Brad Hill was the only player that is a west Aussie. Brad Hill left partially due to saints offering $900,000 a year. Not surprising though. He did have a Front loaded 5 year deal. In 2017 and 2018, he was on $700,000 a year. Year 3 he was on $500,000. Had he stayed with Freo in 2020 and 2021, he would only be on $300,000 a year. his lady is also from Victoria. Fair call. He originally joined Freo because he wanted to play alongside his brother.

Neale is only the other guy on that list that left Freo partially because of money too. He was on $550,000 a year at Freo. Had he been patient and stayed one more season, the year that would of been his 8th season and a free agent, he would of got $700-$800,000 a year deal anyway.

Freo could of made finals in 2020 had both hill and Neale stayed.
 
La Dispute said:
Carlton list looks reasonable to my eyes.

Biggest issue and sore spot is talented players not playing to their ability through a combination of injury and form. Mukraking aside Martin and Williams are quality players who haven’t had a great start at the Blues. But you don’t just lose your talent.

Martin’s best games last year were against the eventual grand final teams, before he succumbed to injury.

Williams is a quality half back who hasn’t hit his straps yet.

Saad actually had a good first season, no idea why he gets lumped in with the underperformers?

We’re certainly paying a decent chunk of salary for these guys, but that’s balanced out by the bargain contracts Walsh and McKay are sitting on. Cerra also signed for unders.

The raw materials are there, it’s going to be a matter of how Voss co-ordinates both the coaching group and the players to get the most out of them.
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Jack Martin is basically Will Hoskin-Elliott with a bigger pay packet and less output. Both highly rated kids, both have all the skill in the world, both rarely put it together....both avg well u20 disposals per game, and neither hits the scoreboard regularly

Wasn't McKay noted as being a 2year $1.5m contract? Sure compared to Williams that looks like a bargain....

Walsh will get a new deal next year, kid deserves every bit of a 800-900k pay day, a "bargain" if you can get Walsh for similar to what Williams is getting I guess.

Wonder if Cerra is getting more or less than the much better performed Brayshaw who signed his extension to stay at Freo at the end of 2020??
 
chunkylover53 said:
I think some players underperformed/were injured this year - they've shown to be much better than their 2021 performance.

Curnow, Williams, Saad, Fisher, McGovern, Newman, Martin.

Then younger players/1st rounders who should improve like Dow, Stocker & Kemp. Add in Cerra and Hewett now.

I wouldn't say that's no substance.
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A fit Curnow will make a big difference.

I don’t think you could expect Saad to make a big jump in 22. His output was good this year. Seems like Groundhog Day saying Martin will make a difference. I like the WHE comparison someone made earlier. That’s probably his level now.

Guys like Newman should be replaced in the side by Stocker or Kemp. I can’t see a 22 with those three in there, with Williams and Saad also playing in the back half.

Cerra and Hewitt replace the output of guys like Setterfield and Kennedy so are a massive upgrade. Dow is probably into his last year to show that he’s worthy of being that top three picked in his draft year, or head the way of SPS. I can’t see whose spot he takes in the midfield now.

It’s an indictment on the attitudes of McGovern and Williams to think that if only they could get themselves fit they would improve the team significantly. For two blokes who were paid more than 1.5m combined in the 2021 season that’s really poor.

While Jones was only a solid player, his retirement shows they have a hole in his position and may get exposed a little next year. They wouldn’t have thought Young would replace Jones so quickly but that may need to happen now.

As for outgoing players, apart from Jones there wasn’t much that they lost on output. Betts was a great player, but his 2021 return was poor. Same with Murphy. Gibbons while a heart and soul player, won’t be missed in the position he was asked to play in 2021.

They should improve on the back of the above, and with a new coach make finals. Someone mentioned Voss new mantra of no excuses and I think this will be embraced by the club. It will reward those who buy in and cut off those that don’t. I think it will be obvious to see which players have responded positively to this at this time next year, and which of those that didn’t and aren’t on the list anymore. Exciting times for Blues fans.
 
Rich01 said:
A fit Curnow will make a big difference.

I don’t think you could expect Saad to make a big jump in 22. His output was good this year. Seems like Groundhog Day saying Martin will make a difference. I like the WHE comparison someone made earlier. That’s probably his level now.

Guys like Newman should be replaced in the side by Stocker or Kemp. I can’t see a 22 with those three in there, with Williams and Saad also playing in the back half.

Cerra and Hewitt replace the output of guys like Setterfield and Kennedy so are a massive upgrade. Dow is probably into his last year to show that he’s worthy of being that top three picked in his draft year, or head the way of SPS. I can’t see whose spot he takes in the midfield now.

It’s an indictment on the attitudes of McGovern and Williams to think that if only they could get themselves fit they would improve the team significantly. For two blokes who were paid more than 1.5m combined in the 2021 season that’s really poor.

While Jones was only a solid player, his retirement shows they have a hole in his position and may get exposed a little next year. They wouldn’t have thought Young would replace Jones so quickly but that may need to happen now.

As for outgoing players, apart from Jones there wasn’t much that they lost on output. Betts was a great player, but his 2021 return was poor. Same with Murphy. Gibbons while a heart and soul player, won’t be missed in the position he was asked to play in 2021.

They should improve on the back of the above, and with a new coach make finals. Someone mentioned Voss new mantra of no excuses and I think this will be embraced by the club. It will reward those who buy in and cut off those that don’t. I think it will be obvious to see which players have responded positively to this at this time next year, and which of those that didn’t and aren’t on the list anymore. Exciting times for Blues fans.
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I don't think you're giving Kennedy enough respect, his last five games were very good. If we can start winning a few a lot of players become different players, I'm not making any predictions until i see how the players are reacting to Voss and the new assistants.
 
RobR said:
I don't think you're giving Kennedy enough respect, his last five games were very good. If we can start winning a few a lot of players become different players, I'm not making any predictions until i see how the players are reacting to Voss and the new assistants.
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You are right in us not knowing which players will respond to a new coach.
I dont rate Kennedy as a starting mid though based on his past performance. Sure he’s improved in his last five games but him in that 21 side isn’t a finals quality midfield. Carlton addressed this in the trade period.

He may surprise next year. But I think Hewitt and Cerra in that midfield make it better and also take away Kennedys minutes there. I don’t think that’s a bad thing for the team at all.
 
Last edited:
JP2 said:
The trouble with talking about a team's possibility of "improving" is that it's not an absolute judgement ("will we be better than last year?") but a relative judgement ("will we improve more than other teams compared to last year?"). I think at this time of year, every team can look at its list and its game style and pretty easily identify where they can improve, but of course if every team improves to the same absolute degree then they're all bound to keep the same spot on the ladder relative to each other. That's why I think of the AFL these days as a Red Queen's Race, where you probably need to improve by 10% every year just to stay in exactly the same place: getting better, by itself, won't necessarily result in progress.

Looking at the ladder from last season, I think there's at least 13 teams who'd be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals next year. Realistically, Collingwood, GC, NM, Hawthorn and Adelaide could still get a pass mark for failing to make finals given where they are in terms of building their lists, but everyone else would be rightly disappointed if they failed to make finals. There are young teams like Freo and Essendon who can realistically expect to improve just because they're going to be one year more experienced and battle-hardened than last year. There are older teams with a core of good players, like St. Kilda, WC and Richmond, who would feel like if they can keep everyone fit and healthy they've still got a shot at achieving something next year as well. Of the teams in the top 8 this year, who would you realistically expect to drop out for next year? GWS looked a bit shaky, but they were hit hard with injuries and still managed to win a final. Everyone's been expecting the cliff to come for Geelong for the last 10 years, but it never seems to arrive: they were one Max Gawn mark away from finishing top of the ladder this year.

So will Carlton improve this year? Probably. But to be a "breakout" team (presuming that means to make finals) they're going to need to do more than improve, they're going to need to improve a whole sh*t-ton relative to all the teams above them. When you look at the potential improvement that all of those 12 teams above Carlton could also make, though, it becomes tricky to suggest which 5 teams Carlton are likely to leap-frog in order to make it into 8th spot. Given how competitive the league is at the moment, and given the realistic expectations which have been placed on so many teams, there's going to be a lot of disappointed fans and under-pressure coaches come the end of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlton make finals next year, but I would be equally unsurprised to see them miss out.
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Spot on post . 👌
I think a lot of fans look at their club's returning players from injury , development of young players , new coaching innovations etc - without looking at other teams on a similar level or above them, who would be expecting the same things.
The 5 sides you mentioned would not be expecting to make finals, but the other 13 could all mount a case they will and the blues are one of those . Carlton who haven't played finals for a while probably have less patience and greater hope than others as well.

The variable of course is the new coach. Under 40% win rate at the Lions , was not highly regarded as a coach by the majority of their supporters, and was probably about 3rd choice on their radar. Suspect whether he is a better coach second time round will determine how much Carlton improve.
 
Spirit Level said:
Read this very carefully so that you can understand:

He left to be closer to his/his partners family, nothing negative towards Fremantle at all.

Do you get it now?

Do you?
Click to expand...

It really is hilarious how you dismiss every part of the Cerra story except the part which endears your own club. Genuinely clueless.


Rich01 said:
A fit Curnow will make a big difference.

I don’t think you could expect Saad to make a big jump in 22. His output was good this year. Seems like Groundhog Day saying Martin will make a difference. I like the WHE comparison someone made earlier. That’s probably his level now.

Guys like Newman should be replaced in the side by Stocker or Kemp. I can’t see a 22 with those three in there, with Williams and Saad also playing in the back half.

Cerra and Hewitt replace the output of guys like Setterfield and Kennedy so are a massive upgrade. Dow is probably into his last year to show that he’s worthy of being that top three picked in his draft year, or head the way of SPS. I can’t see whose spot he takes in the midfield now.

It’s an indictment on the attitudes of McGovern and Williams to think that if only they could get themselves fit they would improve the team significantly. For two blokes who were paid more than 1.5m combined in the 2021 season that’s really poor.

While Jones was only a solid player, his retirement shows they have a hole in his position and may get exposed a little next year. They wouldn’t have thought Young would replace Jones so quickly but that may need to happen now.

As for outgoing players, apart from Jones there wasn’t much that they lost on output. Betts was a great player, but his 2021 return was poor. Same with Murphy. Gibbons while a heart and soul player, won’t be missed in the position he was asked to play in 2021.

They should improve on the back of the above, and with a new coach make finals. Someone mentioned Voss new mantra of no excuses and I think this will be embraced by the club. It will reward those who buy in and cut off those that don’t. I think it will be obvious to see which players have responded positively to this at this time next year, and which of those that didn’t and aren’t on the list anymore. Exciting times for Blues fans.
Click to expand...

Yep, hard to argue with any of this.
 
CapitalA said:
How many (if any) coaches made finals in their first year at a club?
Click to expand...
Ross Lyon did it at your own club.

Chris Scott won a flag.

Beveridge at Bulldogs.
Voss at Brisbane
Hinkley at Port
Rutten at Essendon
Ratten at St Kilda

That's just off the top of my head.

It's quite common, I'm sure there's more.
 
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