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Geelong and Carlton - Can they go all the way?
- Thread starter BigVic
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Geelong - absolutely they can.
No you're not.
Collingwood would take a giant steaming s**t on either of them come September.
Kobe Gryant
Professional Quidditch Player
We'll know by this week regardless.
Win against the Lions and the hunt for top 4 is well and truly on....if we drop that then it's going to have to be 4 in a row in September.
Seen crazier things, but I doubt we're winning it from there. It's Collingwood's flag to lose.
I don't see it.
Melbourne's our best target and they are 1½ games clear of us. They face Adelaide, Richmond, North Melbourne, Carlton, Hawthorn and Sydney.
That's a fairly easy fixture.
I think they smash Adelaide who are fatigued and faltering. Richmond's a middle of the road team and won't have a ruckman to stop Gawn.
The only game I see them going in 50/50 is Carlton. They possibly lose two games but probably only drop one to Carlton who are in red hot form.
Even if we win all our games, we just won't get in now. As I said, they were able to sew up their top four aspirations by beating Brisbane.
The most likely outcome is Geelong finishing 5th, although a win at the Gabba on Friday would shake things up.
Elimination final: Essendon @ MCG
Semi final: Melbourne @ MCG
Preliminary final: Port Adelaide @ AO
Grand final: Collingwood @ MCG
This is the kind of path they would face. A healthy, in form Geelong side would win the first two. Needing to repeat Richmond's heroics in 2020 or the Bulldogs in 2021 of inducing a Port Adelaide prelim choke job on their home turf. Unlikely, but it'd be kind of fun to see what happens. Nobody would give them a chance after fizzing out in the H&A contest but from memory, reigning premiers have flipped that kind of result in finals before. In fact it has happened against Geelong multiple times.
Elimination final: Essendon @ MCG
Semi final: Melbourne @ MCG
Preliminary final: Port Adelaide @ AO
Grand final: Collingwood @ MCG
This is the kind of path they would face. A healthy, in form Geelong side would win the first two. Needing to repeat Richmond's heroics in 2020 or the Bulldogs in 2021 of inducing a Port Adelaide prelim choke job on their home turf. Unlikely, but it'd be kind of fun to see what happens. Nobody would give them a chance after fizzing out in the H&A contest but from memory, reigning premiers have flipped that kind of result in finals before. In fact it has happened against Geelong multiple times.
Why do people keep stating Melbourne are certainties for those games? They almost lost to MCG bunnies Brisbane at that ground. They did lose to Fremantle there. Lost to GWS, umpires saved them vs Gold Coast, got thumped by Essendon, lost to an out of form Geelong side without Dangerfield, Guthrie and Cameron.
Richmond and Carlton have plenty to play for and their form is around the same level as Melbourne's. Sydney on their day, on their home turf are still a decent side too. Adelaide are unpredictable but have weapons and may bounce back.
They'll drop two I reckon.
Brisbane have to travel three times and have only won a road trip outside of Marvel twice this year - vs North Melbourne (neutral ground) and GWS (genuine away match). They're no certainties vs Gold Coast or Freo, and will drop the Collingwood game. Lose this week and drop two more and they would fall out.
Kobe Gryant
Professional Quidditch Player
I highly doubt we'll win out from here, but if we did, we'd make top 4. That's where catscollector's wrong.
As you say, Melbourne and Brisbane aren't world beaters and their games aren't gimmies either.
Not to mention, can you imagine the media and external pressure if Geelong got to 1/2 a game behind Melbourne or Brisbane? That sorta stuff builds quickly, and you can easily drop a game you'd otherwise win as a result.
They'll both drop games, that's the easy part. The hard part is Geelong winning out, which even with our good form is going to be a huge ask.
But you are also assuming we are certainties and have a tougher fixture than Melbourne. We drew with Sydney when we had the game in our hands with 10 minutes remaining. We blew a golden opportunity no matter which way you look at it. Sydney are bloody atrocious (won't even get near the eight).
Wins against North Melbourne and Essendon are ok but expected.
I see us dropping another couple of games as well. Collingwood is the main one. We have already lost 7 games for the year. We just aren't top four quality.
Dropped too many games we simply should have won.
Melbourne been in the same position but managed to get it done. That's the difference.
If Oliver returns, just completely alters their fortunes entirely.
Should have beaten Gold Coast, GWS and Sydney.
People talk about our outs but GWS were missing a few handy players too. We turned it around in the final quarter but left our run too late. It's just been of those seasons.
I think the reality of witnessing Melbourne pull off the miracle win on Friday night has really set in. Was liking our top four chances if they dropped that one but I guess we will have to travel across the country and try and do the impossible from 5th or 7th position.
Rarely is it achievable. One of those interstate teams will be well rested and waiting if we even get that far.
Far cry from winning the first final and literally sleep walking into a prelim final.
I'm not assuming. In your hypothetical you said IF we win all of our remaining games we have no chance of top 4. I disagree with that notion. Would be close to a 50/50.
By the way there was no difference in winning or drawing the Sydney game. Melbourne and Brisbane's % gap is wide and they have a few matches where they could increase that %. If we lost the Sydney match, our top 4 chances would be null and void.
Jhye Clark 13
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I feel much better for having read your latest masterpiece.
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Agreed, cant see Melbourne jumping above Brisbane and dont see them beating Collingwood in the first week so might aswell drop to fifth, give cats 4th and have the home final against whoever finishes 8th.
Question for me is will Collingwood be happy to give up top spot to avoid Geelong should the above come to fruition.
I didnt mind Port losing on the weekend for this very reason, forces Collingwoods hand and at 2 games behind we can have a fair dinkum crack this weekend with nothing to lose.
Port v Cats GF.
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Fair enough, our thumpings and their close games have tightened it up but do you really think when comparing our fixture lists that we can make up % on them? If we do we will be going better than I thought and likely winning every game.
Come back to me if I'm wrong about this September
Only 2 sides ever won winning 4 finals in a row, so it’s highly unlikely.
We need to at least make it first, but if we do, we’d be going in with good form. Would need to still be playing out of our skins and minimise interstate finals.
We need to at least make it first, but if we do, we’d be going in with good form. Would need to still be playing out of our skins and minimise interstate finals.
Jhye Clark 13
07, 09, 11, 22
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- 98,729
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If we win every one of our games? (have to be a 20% possibility)
Sure, Melbourne aren't a heavily scoring team. That was the first time they cracked 100+ points since early May so if they do win their games, it'll be on par with ourselves. Every possibility we fly past them on percentage.
Osho
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Cats are a huge chance to go all the way IF they win everything rest of HA and one of the teams above them goes to water. That's distinctly possible, and though they have a tough run home, Dees and Lions also have some tough games to come. Otherwise, from outside the top 4 they are a show, if not a big show.
Scott has nearly gotten the season right, the slow start to training and timing the run, no easy job, just look a couple of weeks off.
I wonder though, if they are in ripper form into finals, I wouldn't be surprised if they did it from outside the 4. Unlike Port, Dees, Lions, Dogs etc., Cats KNOW they are good enough.
Blues lookin good, but let's face it, the nervous nellies could return at any moment. I still think they need a heap of therapy, and I can easily imagine them suffering stage fright under finals pressure.
Scott has nearly gotten the season right, the slow start to training and timing the run, no easy job, just look a couple of weeks off.
I wonder though, if they are in ripper form into finals, I wouldn't be surprised if they did it from outside the 4. Unlike Port, Dees, Lions, Dogs etc., Cats KNOW they are good enough.
Blues lookin good, but let's face it, the nervous nellies could return at any moment. I still think they need a heap of therapy, and I can easily imagine them suffering stage fright under finals pressure.
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