
- Nov 22, 2014
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I think there is an interesting discussion here around whether teams can win the flag from outside the top 4. We all know the Dogs won in 2016, but that seems to be accepted as the exception to the rule, rather than the rule.
The question to me is whether it's (near on) impossible to win outside the top 4 because you need to win 4 straight knockout games? Or whether it's because the teams from 5-8 are usually there for a reason (and thus not one of the best teams that year). I'd argue it's a bit of both, but probably more of the latter.
Aside from Dogs 2016, when has a team 5-8 been considered one of the 2-3 best teams in it? The only example I can think of off the top of my head is Swans 2017, who went 0-6 to start the season but then only lost 2 more games to finish 14-8. A lot of pundits were saying that Swans team were one of, if not, the best team in it heading into finals (they ended up losing semi final comfortably to Geelong who lost comfortably to Adelaide in a prelim).
In regards to Geelong this year, there are definitely some parallels. Our win-loss at this stage is probably below our quality due to a slow start to the season (0-3) and then significant injuries mid-season where we lost 4 of 6 games. Some pundits (e.g. Kane Cornes) said we are the 2nd best team in it after last weekend's win over Essendon. I think it's too early to say and we'll have a better idea over the next month or so as Cats have a really tough run coming up.
The question to me is whether it's (near on) impossible to win outside the top 4 because you need to win 4 straight knockout games? Or whether it's because the teams from 5-8 are usually there for a reason (and thus not one of the best teams that year). I'd argue it's a bit of both, but probably more of the latter.
Aside from Dogs 2016, when has a team 5-8 been considered one of the 2-3 best teams in it? The only example I can think of off the top of my head is Swans 2017, who went 0-6 to start the season but then only lost 2 more games to finish 14-8. A lot of pundits were saying that Swans team were one of, if not, the best team in it heading into finals (they ended up losing semi final comfortably to Geelong who lost comfortably to Adelaide in a prelim).
In regards to Geelong this year, there are definitely some parallels. Our win-loss at this stage is probably below our quality due to a slow start to the season (0-3) and then significant injuries mid-season where we lost 4 of 6 games. Some pundits (e.g. Kane Cornes) said we are the 2nd best team in it after last weekend's win over Essendon. I think it's too early to say and we'll have a better idea over the next month or so as Cats have a really tough run coming up.