Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Simon_Nesbit]

Right now they essentially need to do it again. They have a decent team...its not bad, but its certainly not a quality finals outfit, even at full strength

This is the crux of the argument - if there was a team as good as Hawthorn 12-16 (Geelong 07-11, etc) then they would - but the simple answer is no-one is that good anymore.

But for suffering multiple in-game injuries, Hawthorn could well have another two wins and be sitting comfortably in the top 4 (they did, and they don't) - with the prospect of their #1 player being available late in the year. For a potential top-4 side to add a quality player of the ilk of Mitchell - they would have to consider themselves a flag contender.

Are other teams better? Yes, clearly. Other teams have more depth too. But it's not completely out of the question that Hawthorn could have some luck with injury, finish in the lower parts of the top-8 and from there who knows. They certainly have the coaching staff to do it.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Strange that no-one has questioned Collingwood's list profile

Each Sides Average Age in 2019

Collingwood Magpies - 26.31
Hawthorn Hawks - 26.27
Adelaide Crows - 26.18
Geelong Cats - 25.91
West Coast Eagles - 25.89
GWS Giants - 25.69
North Melbourne Kangaroos - 25.64
Essendon Bombers - 25.57
Brisbane Lions - 25.18
Richmond Tigers - 24.89
Port Adelaide Power - 24.82
Melbourne Demons - 24.73
Sydney Swans - 24.68
Fremantle Dockers - 24.61
Carlton Blues - 24.52
Western Bulldogs - 24.50
Gold Coast Suns - 24.35
St Kilda Saints - 24.31

https://www.zerohanger.com/each-sides-average-age-in-2019-30104/

 

[4THAWN]

Strange that no-one has questioned Collingwood's list profile

Each Sides Average Age in 2019

Collingwood Magpies - 26.31
Hawthorn Hawks - 26.27
Adelaide Crows - 26.18
Geelong Cats - 25.91
West Coast Eagles - 25.89
GWS Giants - 25.69
North Melbourne Kangaroos - 25.64
Essendon Bombers - 25.57
Brisbane Lions - 25.18
Richmond Tigers - 24.89
Port Adelaide Power - 24.82
Melbourne Demons - 24.73
Sydney Swans - 24.68
Fremantle Dockers - 24.61
Carlton Blues - 24.52
Western Bulldogs - 24.50
Gold Coast Suns - 24.35
St Kilda Saints - 24.31

https://www.zerohanger.com/each-sides-average-age-in-2019-30104/

Probably because Collingwood's old average age is also directly translating to their premiership window being well and truly open, versus hawthorn's where we are on the down after an extended period of success. This conversation will probably occur regarding Collingwood in 1-3 years but for now being so old is not hurting them

 

[Gralin]

Agree entirely with that

But if you close off one channel that produces that talent (first round picks) you surely minimise your chances of acquiring that elite list

Three ways to get elite talent.
Draft - any round, even the rookie draft has unearthed elite talent. Earlier picks more often turn into good players than later picks. The biggest issue I see with avoiding the early rounds is building good depth across your list.

Trade - you pay a premium but you can get elite talent, opportunity cost is lost picks/players

FA - you need to attract the player and then pay them.

Avoiding one of the three doesn't minimise tour chance of getting elite talent, just minimises your chance of drafting it yourself.

The two worries for me is can you get enough elite talent via draft gems, trades and free agency while also getting enough depth and role players.

More consistently picking late makes certain types of players much harder to find.

Feels like Clarko is trying the Pats model of getting in players that fit the system and can be used innroles that protect against their weaknesses.

You still need some blue chip talent for that idea to work but he's shown he can get very good returns out of pretty limited players by using them the right way.

 

[HolyWars]

Strange that no-one has questioned Collingwood's list profile

Each Sides Average Age in 2019

Collingwood Magpies - 26.31
Hawthorn Hawks - 26.27
Adelaide Crows - 26.18
Geelong Cats - 25.91
West Coast Eagles - 25.89
GWS Giants - 25.69
North Melbourne Kangaroos - 25.64
Essendon Bombers - 25.57
Brisbane Lions - 25.18
Richmond Tigers - 24.89
Port Adelaide Power - 24.82
Melbourne Demons - 24.73
Sydney Swans - 24.68
Fremantle Dockers - 24.61
Carlton Blues - 24.52
Western Bulldogs - 24.50
Gold Coast Suns - 24.35
St Kilda Saints - 24.31

https://www.zerohanger.com/each-sides-average-age-in-2019-30104/

The promising thing for Hawthorn I guess is that if you cut off Roughead (sadly looks gone), Birchall (surprised he hasn't retired) and Burgoyne, that average age drops a significantly.

 

[The Chad and I]

Three ways to get elite talent.
Draft - any round, even the rookie draft has unearthed elite talent. Earlier picks more often turn into good players than later picks. The biggest issue I see with avoiding the early rounds is building good depth across your list.

Trade - you pay a premium but you can get elite talent, opportunity cost is lost picks/players

FA - you need to attract the player and then pay them.

Avoiding one of the three doesn't minimise tour chance of getting elite talent, just minimises your chance of drafting it yourself.

The two worries for me is can you get enough elite talent via draft gems, trades and free agency while also getting enough depth and role players.

More consistently picking late makes certain types of players much harder to find.

Feels like Clarko is trying the Pats model of getting in players that fit the system and can be used innroles that protect against their weaknesses.

You still need some blue chip talent for that idea to work but he's shown he can get very good returns out of pretty limited players by using them the right way.

3 ways to acquire, and also 3 ways they cost you.
Time, salary cap and/or draft picks.

We've got the salary cap and draft picks to pay for players who are ready now.
We're willing to do this because we don't have the time to wait for them to develop.

I haven't done the analysis, but I suspect the risk-weighted prospect of a top 20 draft pick turning into a top player is about 1.5 x Top 20 draft picks.
On that basis:
Wingard - overpaid (slightly)
O'Meara - fair value
Mitchell - underpaid
Scrimshaw - underpaid
Scully - underpaid

Wright knows what he is doing.

 

[WWSD]

The promising thing for Hawthorn I guess is that if you cut off Roughead (sadly looks gone), Birchall (surprised he hasn't retired) and Burgoyne, that average age drops a significantly.

You would also think Puopolo (30), Mohr (30) and Schoenmakers (28) will all be gone at seasons end. McEvoy is already contracted until the end of next year.

Of the 30 year olds at this stage only Henderson and Frawley look likely to be given new deals.

OUT:
Roughead 31
Burgoyne 36
Birchall 30
Mohr 30
Puopolo 30
Schoenmakers 28

I would be very interested to see where the Hawks average age ranks in the AFL at the end of the year. They could go from 1st to like 8th or 9th oldest quite quickly.

 

[Silent Alarm]

Which is fair enough in theory. The reality is between 2010 - 2016, Hawthorn didn’t have the access to the top end of the draft pool, which is where Roughead pick 2, Hodge pick 1, Buddy pick 6, Lewis pick 7 and Rioli pick 12. Mitchell was pick 36, imo the middle of the draft rather than the top end!

In order to get them picks, the Hawks would have had to traded out some players, in order to move up the draft, so your robbing Peter to pay Paul in aquring them picks. So if that had happened, during our 3 peat years, our picks were quite often on the border line of the elite end, to the potential stage. In order to improve our draft order, we would have had to trade out rather than trade in, where the question wouldn’t be about ignoring the draft but trading away potential success, in bettering themselves in the draft, as they did with Croad and McPharlin in 2001.

So far there is 1 that has been a confirmed bust, which was Jono O’Rouke. The O’Meara and Wingard trades, are still too early to tell if we paid too much or not. If they both play over a 100 games, where they are consistently solid and contribute to the team, than irregardless of premiership success, it’s still been a win.

It’s no different to the bombers picking McGrath at pick 1. There is a risk, that he may not make it, but there is a bigger chance that he will and go on to play 200 games, + have a couple of premierships to his name.

With trading your paying the price of bringing in players. With Wingard, he was brought in to help strengthen the forward line, and to become a lynch pin for our next premiership shot. With O’Meara he was brought in, to first be a potential 100+ gamer for the club and then to bolster the next tier to help win our next premiership. While he might not reach his elite potential before his injury, he is showing that he is capable of becoming a solid player for us and our future.

Waaait you think Croad for McPharlin was an upgrade?

Dumb Kiwi who had no nous v an aerobic, fast, competitive, attacking full and centre half back who owned every good key forward he played on.

 

[HolyWars]

You would also think Puopolo (30), Mohr (30) and Schoenmakers (28) will all be gone at seasons end. McEvoy is already contracted until the end of next year.

Of the 30 year olds at this stage only Henderson and Frawley look likely to be given new deals.

OUT:
Roughead 31
Burgoyne 36
Birchall 30
Mohr 30
Puopolo 30
Schoenmakers 28

I would be very interested to see where the Hawks average age ranks in the AFL at the end of the year. They could go from 1st to like 8th or 9th oldest quite quickly.

Agreed, though I think Puopolo stays as he brings a lot of pressure despite not hitting the scoreboard.

 

[Gralin]

3 ways to acquire, and also 3 ways they cost you.
Time, salary cap and/or draft picks.

We've got the salary cap and draft picks to pay for players who are ready now.
We're willing to do this because we don't have the time to wait for them to develop.

I haven't done the analysis, but I suspect the risk-weighted prospect of a top 20 draft pick turning into a top player is about 1.5 x Top 20 draft picks.
On that basis:
Wingard - overpaid (slightly)
O'Meara - fair value
Mitchell - underpaid
Scrimshaw - underpaid
Scully - underpaid

Wright knows what he is doing.

I hate the whole under/over paid thing.
Club paid what they were willing to and the other club were willing to take.
Draft picks literally have no set value, its entirely subjective
It's a guess who will be available and whether you want them and whether they will turn out to be any good.

You would also think Puopolo (30), Mohr (30) and Schoenmakers (28) will all be gone at seasons end. McEvoy is already contracted until the end of next year.

Of the 30 year olds at this stage only Henderson and Frawley look likely to be given new deals.

OUT:
Roughead 31
Burgoyne 36
Birchall 30
Mohr 30
Puopolo 30
Schoenmakers 28

I would be very interested to see where the Hawks average age ranks in the AFL at the end of the year. They could go from 1st to like 8th or 9th oldest quite quickly.

Burgoyne and Poppy a fair chance to go around again at this stage.
Birchall we will know depending on whether he manages to get back
Others I'd agree on

 

[The Chad and I]

I hate the whole under/over paid thing.
Club paid what they were willing to and the other club were willing to take.
Draft picks literally have no set value, its entirely subjective
It's a guess who will be available and whether you want them and whether they will turn out to be any good.

Whether you like it or hate it, the club still needs to make an assessment of value paid vs received.
You need a framework for that otherwise it leads to mismanagement.

Of course, the quality of the draft in which you have picks is paramount; perhaps even the starting point of any trade.

 

[Gralin]

Whether you like it or hate it, the club still needs to make an assessment of value paid vs received.
You need a framework for that otherwise it leads to mismanagement.

Of course, the quality of the draft in which you have picks is paramount; perhaps even the starting point of any trade.

Yes the club does, but nobody else knows that that assessment is.
The club could think they underpaid for Chad and Port could think they made out like bandits on that deal, or they could both be pissed they got bad value out of the trade.
We don't know, it's like draft grades on draft night it's all guess work.

 

[Hawk_francais]

I

You would also think Puopolo (30), Mohr (30) and Schoenmakers (28) will all be gone at seasons end. McEvoy is already contracted until the end of next year.

Of the 30 year olds at this stage only Henderson and Frawley look likely to be given new deals.

OUT:
Roughead 31
Burgoyne 36
Birchall 30
Mohr 30
Puopolo 30
Schoenmakers 28

I would be very interested to see where the Hawks average age ranks in the AFL at the end of the year. They could go from 1st to like 8th or 9th oldest quite quickly.

People have been calling for Puopolo to be traded/dropped/retired since 2016. He's first picked every week, he's still playing the same role as ever, and he's likely to go on.

 

[hk89]

Waaait you think Croad for McPharlin was an upgrade?

Dumb Kiwi who had no nous v an aerobic, fast, competitive, attacking full and centre half back who owned every good key forward he played on.

I'm not sure what you mean. There was no Croad FOR McPharlin. We gave you Croad AND McPharlin for the #1 pick, and a few others, including #36 which we grabbed Sam Mitchell with. Given we got Croad back later, we basically swapped McPharlin for Hodge and Mitchell. McPharlin was a gun, and we really needed a player of his type for many years after he went home, but we won that trade by a mile.

 

[The Chad and I]

Yes the club does, but nobody else knows that that assessment is.
The club could think they underpaid for Chad and Port could think they made out like bandits on that deal, or they could both be pissed they got bad value out of the trade.
We don't know, it's like draft grades on draft night it's all guess work.

Good grief man, what are we all here to do?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

I'm not sure what you mean. There was no Croad FOR McPharlin. We gave you Croad AND McPharlin for the #1 pick, and a few others, including #36 which we grabbed Sam Mitchell with. Given we got Croad back later, we basically swapped McPharlin for Hodge and Mitchell. McPharlin was a gun, and we really needed a player of his type for many years after he went home, but we won that trade by a mile.

My memory is a little sketchy now, but IIRC the original offer was Croad for #1 and #20 - Freo wanted McPharlin who had refused surgery for his OP (against his family/religion or something), and threatened to take him in the pre-season draft for nix. Hawthorn reluctantly included him in the trade for #36, then Freo pulled the same swifty (PSD threat) with someone else - I want to say Farmer but could be someone they didn't end up getting. Pretty sure they were then excluded from the PSD for exceeding the cap.

Of course McPharlin then had the surgery, was called "Mummy's boy" for the next decade by Hawk fans, whilst Croad came home (for pick 10, Riley Dunn) and won a premiership.

 

[Gralin]

Good grief man, what are we all here to do?

Talk about footy?

 

[hk89]

My memory is a little sketchy now, but IIRC the original offer was Croad for #1 and #20 - Freo wanted McPharlin who had refused surgery for his OP (against his family/religion or something), and threatened to take him in the pre-season draft for nix. Hawthorn reluctantly included him in the trade for #36, then Freo pulled the same swifty (PSD threat) with someone else - I want to say Farmer but could be someone they didn't end up getting. Pretty sure they were then excluded from the PSD for exceeding the cap.

Of course McPharlin then had the surgery, was called "Mummy's boy" for the next decade by Hawk fans, whilst Croad came home (for pick 10, Riley Dunn) and won a premiership.

Yes, we've had a couple head back west. Overall we've done pretty well with interstate imports over the years, both in recent times and back in the 80s.
Seems nearly half our 80s team were imports. Buckenara, and Judge from WA, Jarman and Platten from SA, Dunstall from QLD. Eade and Pritchard from Tassie (Hudson too before the 80s). Probably missing a bunch of others too.

 

[Nugett]

Waaait you think Croad for McPharlin was an upgrade?

Dumb Kiwi who had no nous v an aerobic, fast, competitive, attacking full and centre half back who owned every good key forward he played on.

Croad and McPharlin was traded by Hawthorn for pick 1,20 and 36 from Fremantle. So Croad and McPharlin became 1. Luke Hodge, 36 Sam Mitchell.

Trent Croat was then traded by Fremantle in 2003 to Hawthorn for pick 10 which ended up being Riley Dunn.

So McPharlin was a win for you guys, Croad was a bust. I was talking about the actual trades.

 

[MinerBoy]

Waaait you think Croad for McPharlin was an upgrade?

Dumb Kiwi who had no nous v an aerobic, fast, competitive, attacking full and centre half back who owned every good key forward he played on.

You not only misunderstood the trade (post), but have been completely unfair to Croad too. He was a very good footballer. Not as good as McPharlin most certainly but a lot better than your average AFL player. He was an AA after all.

 

[Slysh]

Simple answer: No.

They built their success (even though HFC fans will argue) off a few top picks in a few years in a row (Hodge, Buddy, Roughy, Lewis, Rioli, Smith)
That was the backbone of their side and they smartly topped up to fill the needs around these players.

Right now they essentially need to do it again. They have a decent team...its not bad, but its certainly not a quality finals outfit, even at full strength

Nah we don't need to do that again, we built one of the greatest teams of all time through that strategy. Doesn't mean we can't build a flag contender without dropping right down the ladder.

 

[Bound For Rory]

Strange that no-one has questioned Collingwood's list profile

Each Sides Average Age in 2019

Collingwood Magpies - 26.31
Hawthorn Hawks - 26.27
Adelaide Crows - 26.18
Geelong Cats - 25.91
West Coast Eagles - 25.89
GWS Giants - 25.69
North Melbourne Kangaroos - 25.64
Essendon Bombers - 25.57
Brisbane Lions - 25.18
Richmond Tigers - 24.89
Port Adelaide Power - 24.82
Melbourne Demons - 24.73
Sydney Swans - 24.68
Fremantle Dockers - 24.61
Carlton Blues - 24.52
Western Bulldogs - 24.50
Gold Coast Suns - 24.35
St Kilda Saints - 24.31

https://www.zerohanger.com/each-sides-average-age-in-2019-30104/

Nobody can question the list profile of a team that is competing.
They were grand finalists last year. Look top 4 this year.

If they were old and rubbish (like us) then questions should be asked.

Didnt Hawthorn have a really high average age when they were at their peak?

 

[Bound For Rory]

Nah we don't need to do that again, we built one of the greatest teams of all time through that strategy. Doesn't mean we can't build a flag contender without dropping right down the ladder.

I would agree if the crop you currently have had a big scope for imrpovement.
I just dont see it.
Theres a bit of young talent, but not enough to be a contender anytime soon.

Sometimes I wish my club would drop down the ladder to get some top end talent, instead of finishing between 5-12 every single year.

 

[Pessimistic]

Waaait you think Croad for McPharlin was an upgrade?

Dumb Kiwi who had no nous v an aerobic, fast, competitive, attacking full and centre half back who owned every good key forward he played on.

There was a back story to the croad McPharlin for pick 1 etc which secured Hodge.

Freo finished last (we played a prelim) and miraculously were over the cap. This wasn’t declared early enough and freo threatened to take McPharlin in psd for nothing. Eventually they were excluded from psd as a sanction, but the afl dint compensate hawthorn but they did compensate Melbourne or something like that

 

[Pessimistic]

Nobody can question the list profile of a team that is competing.
They were grand finalists last year. Look top 4 this year.

If they were old and rubbish (like us) then questions should be asked.

Didnt Hawthorn have a really high average age when they were at their peak?

Adelaide grand finalists too. 2015 was the oldest premiership Team ever on the hottest days

Maybe injury management is better these days. We know endurance athletes are usually well into their thirties