Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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Who said no youth? You just have inferior youth. For example:
Mitch Lewis vastly inferior to Aaron Naughton.
James Cousins vastly inferior to Paddy Dow.
Dylan Moore vastly inferior to Connor Rozee.

Sorry, but winning one game against a team with Dawson Simpson in the ruck means little in the context of an entire list going forward. You were all on your high horse after barely beating Carlton a couple weeks back, only to whinge next week about people picking on your club after a loss to Melbourne the following week.
Losing has very little bearing either, didn’t stop a flurry of posting last week
 

TallyHawk

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Who said no youth? You just have inferior youth. For example:
Mitch Lewis vastly inferior to Aaron Naughton.
James Cousins vastly inferior to Paddy Dow.
Dylan Moore vastly inferior to Connor Rozee.

Sorry, but winning one game against a team with Dawson Simpson in the ruck means little in the context of an entire list going forward. You were all on your high horse after barely beating Carlton a couple weeks back, only to whinge next week about people picking on your club after a loss to Melbourne the following week.
But, but, Hawthorn;)


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BJK#5

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Who said no youth? You just have inferior youth. For example:
Mitch Lewis vastly inferior to Aaron Naughton.
James Cousins vastly inferior to Paddy Dow.
Dylan Moore vastly inferior to Connor Rozee.

Sorry, but winning one game against a team with Dawson Simpson in the ruck means little in the context of an entire list going forward. You were all on your high horse after barely beating Carlton a couple weeks back, only to whinge next week about people picking on your club after a loss to Melbourne the following week.
jeez you are quality mate each week our wins mean nothing for some obscure reason... So this week it means nothing because they have a bog average ruckmen???
 

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MightyHawks

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Hawfs will go back to back to back in 20, 21 and 22

My prediction
I'd be devastated if we got just another threepeat without getting the fourth flag

Imagine the Collingwood fans laughing at us, I couldn't stand it.

Think of how hard it would be posting in threads about who has the best threepeat, having to differentiate between different Hawthorn threepeats

I suppose we'd then have a string of who has the best set of 16 premierships threads
 

TylerDurden

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No they don't. Clarkson won 4 flags. Whatever Clarkson demands, Hawthorn will obey, no matter how expensive. The O'Meara deal pretty much illustrates this.


Well, you're not the list manager, so you don't truly know this.
Sure, they could keep the pick, just like they did the year they picked up Burton. That being said, there are a lot of Hawthorn fans have been calling to hit the draft for a few years now, and Hawthorn have traded their first pick every time. Sure, it's nice to big up some gems and bargains with late picks, but you never want that to be the real meat of your team.

Again, if you see your club as a "big player" on the trade table this year, chasing players worth big money, it doesn't matter what range your first pick is in, it'll be on the table.
You have no idea if you think Clarko overrides Wright in these decisions. None.
 

HFF

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I'd be devastated if we got just another threepeat without getting the fourth flag

Imagine the Collingwood fans laughing at us, I couldn't stand it.

Think of how hard it would be posting in threads about who has the best threepeat, having to differentiate between different Hawthorn threepeats

I suppose we'd then have a string of who has the best set of 16 premierships threads
What's laughable about back to back to back?

***i haven't read any previous posts so if sarcasm in your post apologies in advance.
 
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Paddy Dow might have a higher ceiling, but Cousins is getting the job done for us, better than Dow is for Carlton - rookie pick vs pick 3
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=6425&pid2=6464&fid1=S&fid2=S

Mitchell Lewis vs Aaron Naughton - similar scenario
Pick 76 vs Pick 9

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=8&type=A&pid1=6398&pid2=6491&fid1=S&fid2=S

Lewis is generating these numbers having only played a 6 games in his career (4 this season) vs 26 by Naughton.
I would expect Lewis to close or even exceed Naughton's numbers by the end of this season.

People are grossly underrating Lewis at the moment.
He dominated the VFL last year and his progression will be rapid in the AFL IMO.

Is the difference between those two sets of players so vast?
I don't think so.

Nobody adds up draft points on the day of the Grand Final to predict the winner.
 

Gavin Excell

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Paddy Dow might have a higher ceiling, but Cousins is getting the job done for us, better than Dow is for Carlton - rookie pick vs pick 3
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=4&type=A&pid1=6425&pid2=6464&fid1=S&fid2=S

Mitchell Lewis vs Aaron Naughton - similar scenario
Pick 76 vs Pick 9

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...d2=8&type=A&pid1=6398&pid2=6491&fid1=S&fid2=S

Lewis is generating these numbers having only played a 6 games in his career (4 this season) vs 26 by Naughton.
I would expect Lewis to close or even exceed Naughton's numbers by the end of this season.

People are grossly underrating Lewis at the moment.
He dominated the VFL last year and his progression will be rapid in the AFL IMO.

Is the difference between those two sets of players so vast?
I don't think so.

Nobody adds up draft points on the day of the Grand Final to predict the winner.
That is true.

If they did, they would have noted that almost half (9/22)Hawthorns last premiership team was made up of 1st round picks
 

hk89

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That is true.

If they did, they would have noted that almost half (9/22)Hawthorns last premiership team was made up of 1st round picks
Only 7 in the 2015 side were picked by us though vs traded in (and some of the picks for those 7 came from trades rather than rewards for low finishes). I think there was more than 9 total first round picks in the 2015 team (I count 11 , but could have got some wrong). 8 players in the 2015 flag team were picked by us in the draft at 30+. And then there were 3 other non-first rounders we traded in (Lake, Gunston and Gibson).

A guess at our current best 22 (assuming everyone on the list is fit):

Hardwick Frawley Burgoyne
Birchall Sicily Stratton
Scully Mitchell Smith
Gunston Lewis Breust
Puopolo Ceglar Wingard

Foll: McEvoy, O'Meara, Shiels

IC: Scrimshaw, Impey, Henderson, Worpel

Depth (players with more than 3 or 4 games at AFL level): Cousins, Morrison, Brand, O'Brien, Miles, Mirra, Glass, Nash, Pittonet

First rounders in that group:
Scully
O'Meara (technically went in mini draft, but GC gave up two first rounders for GWS's mini-draft pick so think it is fair to include him)
Birchall
Burgoyne
Frawley
McEvoy
Mitchell
Scrimshaw
Smith
Wingard

So that's 10 first rounders, with Roughy it would have been 11, the same as our last flag year, but it is hard
to argue he's best 22 after being dropped. Burgoyne and Birchall would have question marks on being around next
year, so could drop to 8 before trade/draft period. If we keep our pick we'd be at 9, 2 less than the premiership year by my accounting (or the same by yours).

The big difference isn't really the number of first round picks we have in the team, it is where they came from this time around. Only 2 of those 10 first rounders were drafted by us, compared to 7 in the 2015 side. It is interesting that we've ended up with a similar number to 2015, despite not going to the draft with first round picks very often over the last 10 years. Like S.Mitchell and Breust last time, we've also got a bit lucky with some later picks like Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel (although S.Mitchell and Breust are pretty hard to compete with in terms of late gets come good).

Losing Burgoyne when he goes will hurt, losing Roughy and Birchall not so much given their current ability to contribute (apparently we are still planning to get Birchall back on the park, but most fans seem to have given up hope).

Looks like our full squad is probably still 2-3 players short of an upper echelon team. Would be great if Lewis continues to develop, but KPFs as late as him rarely come to anything in the long run, so it is a bit of a long shot. If he doesn't stall, he could mean we only need a KPD and one more elite mid, which isn't completely out of the question. Getting those two will help our depth, but being able to get a bunch of games into Worpel and Cousins has already helped a lot with midfield depth, if Mitchell gets back ok next year, 2020 should have us deeper in the middle than 2018 did. Still very shallow in KP players.

So for mine, the jury is still well and truly out on whether we can succeed or not with a draft ignoring strategy. We are looking at a work in progress this year, with one of the key cornerstones of the strategy sitting on the sidelines for the season, and a few new guys to gel into the system. If we recruit well, next year's team could be a lot closer to contention than our current ladder position would suggest. I still think we'll struggle to make finals this year unless O'Meara can learn to more fully break a tag in the next couple of weeks. He's still contributing, but without Mitchell we're vulnerable without O'Meara getting 25+ most weeks. We're also carrying enough older players on the list that soft tissue injuries should start to be considered normal rather than just unlucky, and I expect we haven't seen the last of them to important older players for this season, although our injury list is looking pretty clean right now.
 

OneEyedHawk

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Just checking in to advise hawks fans that P Dangerfields lifestyle show is now on 7

Sure you wouldn’t want to miss out
Yes, it's only Hawks fans who think Danger is a massive w@anker. If that makes you feel a little bit better, sure.

You might want to steer clear of the comments in the "most over-exposed in the comp" thread though.


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