Strategy Can the Saints make the finals this year?

[Roadto2018]

i think if we make it we better pray to god it's the dogs or the cats who finish 5th, adelaide or west coast would come out fired up and absolutely embarrass us

 

[aussierulesrules]

What week would we anticipate actually going into 8th spot? From what I can see, we COULD get in there as early as Round 21.

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves pls Perce!

 

[Defacto]

i think if we make it we better pray to god it's the dogs or the cats who finish 5th, adelaide or west coast would come out fired up and absolutely embarrass us

Hehehe yeap

 

[plugger66]

Meh, not really. That'll take them to 12 wins, and I'm not seeing them beat the Hawks, Swans or Giants to get their 13th win.

If we are 4 games behind, well 3 plus an impossible percentage to catch then I would think they are certainties. Its pretty simple. We must win this week or its over.

 

[aussierulesrules]

...unless we win our last 4 and North lose their last 4...

 

[plugger66]

...unless we win our last 4 and North lose their last 4...

Unfortunately I don't believe in Father Xmas. Lets be totally honest, we need to win this week or we are done. We certainly can win and if we do I think we are a real chance to play finals.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Unfortunately I don't believe in Father Xmas.

Didn't we have to win a game by 100 points in order to make the top 4 a few years ago and pull that off? Didn't Richmond have to win about 9 in a row to make the 8 a couple of years ago and do it?

Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, it's not over until it's over and even if we lose this weekend it still won't be over, so I don't see why anyone would go and pretend it is when they're not kidding anyne who can do simple maths and has seen stuff exactly like this happen before and know it will happen again.

Father Christmas doesn't exist, but our chance of making the 8 still will if we lose this weekend, so there is a very key difference there.

 

[Mowman]

Don't think we will make it this year, but either way over the moon with this year to date. Thought we would win 6 to 8 games this year and 8 would be a stretch and we would finish around 12th to 14th. So to be in the position we are in a big tick for the club, I love the way we play when we are on our game I heard Robbo/Slobbo describe the Saints today as a BEAST OF A SIDE when they come to play and bring their pressure game, that's a good wrap

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Don't think we will make it this year, but either way over the moon with this year to date. Thought we would win 6 to 8 games this year and 8 would be a stretch and we would finish around 12th to 14th. So to be in the position we are in a big tick for the club, I love the way we play when we are on our game I heard Robbo/Slobbo describe the Saints today as a BEAST OF A SIDE when they come to play and bring their pressure game, that's a good wrap

I thought the game against the dogs was as good as any final as far as intensity went.

 

[plugger66]

Didn't we have to win a game by 100 points in order to make the top 4 a few years ago and pull that off? Didn't Richmond have to win about 9 in a row to make the 8 a couple of years ago and do it?

Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, it's not over until it's over and even if we lose this weekend it still won't be over, so I don't see why anyone would go and pretend it is.

Father Christmas doesn't exist, but our chance of making the 8 still will if we lose this weekend, so there is a very key difference there. You're allowed to admit it and just be honest.

You can have your opinion and I will have mine. If we lose this week we are very unlikely to win 4 and North will be very unlikely to lose 4 knowing one win gets them a finals birth. No idea why anyone would think we could win the final 4 if we cant beat North this week. That is clearly our best chance to make it. We will be about 100 to one to make it if we lose. Yep possible but highly unlikely. About once every 100 years. And I don't know what I'm admitting? Port can still make it but the media have said they cant because it makes sense. It makes sense if we lose this week we cant make it baring a miracle. You can believe in the miracle and I will hope we beat North and forget the miracle.

 

[aussierulesrules]

You can have your opinion and I will have mine.

You seem to be very much mixing up opinions and statements of facts though. My opinion is not that I think we'll make it if we lose this week, I very much doubt we will, I'm just stating a fact that it's not over if we do, which you stated to be the case in the post I quoted.

If we lose this week we are very unlikely to win 4 and North will be very unlikely to lose 4 knowing one win gets them a finals birth.

This is more like it. Well done. That wasn't so hard was it?

No idea why anyone would think we could win the final 4 if we cant beat North this week.

Maybe because we didn't come down in the last shower? If you have no idea of that you must not realise that we've won 3 in a row (including beating a current top 3 side) after our appalling game against Gold Coast 4 games ago, for instance, or 1000 other similar examples I could come up with. I mean how hard would it be to realise that North could just play very well this week and beat us and that that wouldn't affect our ability to win the next 4?

Given that we're a youngish, developing side, it could also just be that we're due for a down week this week, but that we'll then have 4 more good ones in us after that.

That's one of the more mind-boggling things I've seen written on here and that's saying something.

That is clearly our best chance to make it.

No s**t, not sure why you're telling me this, I agree fully with this and haven't once disputed it.

Yep possible but highly unlikely.

Correct. Very different from the "impossibility" that it being over would make it, hence my initial post.

About once every 100 years.

If you say so, I haven't looked into how often this sort of thing happens. Stephen Bradbury might be able to tell me. Or Richmond, as just a couple of examples that come very quickly to mind. If you want to go call them "miracles" and pretend they didn't happen or can't happen again then knock yourself out I guess.

Sounds to me like you're just scared to get your hopes up, which is unfortunate.

 

[RoundCubic]

Remember it well but even as good as that was we have to make up 300 points on North. The only way you can make up big margins like that is when you play them because it a double turn around. If we beat North I would suggest it will be a small margin so that will leave 4 games to turn around 300 points. Cant see it at all. The best case scenario is we just win more games than North because relying on percentage will probably get us very disappointed.

If we beat north we could pass them on % even if they win a game and we lose to Sydney. North % bring it down by maybe 100 points then if we keep winning it may be as little as 50 points difference when we play Brisbane but the big if would be not getting smashed by Sydney
And we have to beat North so just gonna direct my prayers to this week

 

[plugger66]

You seem to be very much mixing up opinions and statements of facts though. My opinion is not that I think we'll make it if we lose this week, I very much doubt we will, I'm just stating a fact that it's not over if we do, which you stated to be the case in the post I quoted.

This is more like it. Well done. That wasn't so hard was it?

Maybe because we didn't come down in the last shower? If you have no idea of that you must not realise that we've won 3 in a row (including beating a current top 3 side) after our appalling game against Gold Coast 4 games ago, for instance, or 1000 other similar examples I could come up with. I mean how hard would it be to realise that North could just play very well this week and beat us and that that wouldn't affect our ability to win the next 4?

That's one of the more mind-boggling things I've seen written on here and that's saying something.

No s**t, not sure why you're telling me this, I agree fully with this and haven't once disputed it.

Correct. Very different from the "impossibility" that it being over would make it, hence my initial post.

If you say so, I haven't looked into how often this sort of thing happens. Stephen Bradbury might be able to tell me. Or Richmond, as just a couple of examples that come very quickly to mind. If you want to go call them "miracles" and pretend they didn't happen or can't happen again then knock yourself out I guess.

Sounds to me like you're just scared to get your hopes up, which is unfortunate.

Your breaking down on my comments is lovely. We still cant make it if we lose this week but seen that it is so important to you that I word it correctly I think we are 100 to one to make it if we lose this week. Semantics but obviously important. And why the hell would I be scared to get my hopes up. I think you are scared to say what I said about the North game being more important to win that the WB was correct. I maybe incorrect on that but it isn't as silly as saying I'm scared to get my hopes up. It actually makes no sense.

And finally I wasn't a great student at school but I was ok at maths and obviously I know if you are 4 games behind with 4 to play you can still make it but when I said we cant make it, it was my opinion as I typed it. I know maths says you can. Surely every time I comment I don't have to put IMO after every statement.

 

[plugger66]

If north lose the required games to keep them to 12/13 wins that will bring it down to 200 points then if we keep winning and dont get smashed by sydney it may be as little as 50 points difference when we play Brisbane

Yes that can happen but it is about as likely as us making it if we lose this week. In the last 4 games North have lost 3 out of 4 and we have won 3 out of 4 yet our percentage has only improved 9% against theirs so its unlikely it will change 20% in the last 5 games unless as I said we smash North. The best way to improve your percentage against another side this late in the season it to smash that side otherwise ots just about impossible.

 

[RoundCubic]

Yes that can happen but it is about as likely as us making it if we lose this week. In the last 4 games North have lost 3 out of 4 and we have won 3 out of 4 yet our percentage has only improved 9% against theirs so its unlikely it will change 20% in the last 5 games unless as I said we smash North. The best way to improve your percentage against another side this late in the season it to smash that side otherwise ots just about impossible.

Yeah i changed it to make it clear we have to beat them but if we only have a close loss to Sydney the % likely won't be impossibly huge when we get to Brisbane

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

i think if we make it we better pray to god it's the dogs or the cats who finish 5th, adelaide or west coast would come out fired up and absolutely embarrass us

If we make it, I want GWS.

If we are going to be contending then we must be able to beat gws.

Go up there and beat the s**t out of them.

 

[Glen Buterol]

What's in our favour is ALL the teams North play have a lot to play for.

StK - finals
WB - top 4
Haw - top 2
Syd - top 4
GWS - top 4

On the other hand we have a few teams going thru the motions.

Roos - finals
Carl - nothing
Syd - top 4
Rich - nothing
Bris - nothing

If we best North, our motivation to keep winning & make the 8 should get us thru so long as North lose enough games. Win verse North & I reckon we will go in at least even money to take North's spot.

 

[plugger66]

What's in our favour is ALL the teams North play have a lot to play for.

StK - finals
WB - top 4
Haw - top 2
Syd - top 4
GWS - top 4

On the other hand we have a few teams going thru the motions.

Roos - finals
Carl - nothing
Syd - top 4
Rich - nothing
Bris - nothing

If we best North, our motivation to keep winning & make the 8 should get us thru so long as North lose enough games. Win verse North & I reckon we will go in at least even money to take North's spot.

Totally agree. Reckon we a huge chance.

 

[thepoyz]

If we are 4 games behind, well 3 plus an impossible percentage to catch then I would think they are certainties. Its pretty simple. We must win this week or its over.

Yep, but if we win i reckon it's 50/50

 

[freebloke]

Really really academic at the moment, but there can be a scenario when it is North / West Coast fighting for the 8th spot with the saints at the start of round 23. Should it then get to a win + %age issue, the team which is playing at the end has an advantage.

North is playing GWS that weekend, so, AFL would want to schedule GWS game first given that they want to give potentially top 4 team the maximum break. Similarly, Adelaide and West Coast are playing each other, so, again the AFL would want to give them the maximum break.

Saints on the other hand are playing Brisbane at Etihad....

You guessed it - bring on round 22 2008!!!

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Unfortunately I don't believe in Father Xmas.

What?? Surely you believe in old St. Nick

And just like Santa Nick also has a lot of presence

 

[George]

You seem to be very much mixing up opinions and statements of facts though. My opinion is not that I think we'll make it if we lose this week, I very much doubt we will, I'm just stating a fact that it's not over if we do, which you stated to be the case in the post I quoted.

This is more like it. Well done. That wasn't so hard was it?

Maybe because we didn't come down in the last shower? If you have no idea of that you must not realise that we've won 3 in a row (including beating a current top 3 side) after our appalling game against Gold Coast 4 games ago, for instance, or 1000 other similar examples I could come up with. I mean how hard would it be to realise that North could just play very well this week and beat us and that that wouldn't affect our ability to win the next 4?

Given that we're a youngish, developing side, it could also just be that we're due for a down week this week, but that we'll then have 4 more good ones in us after that.

That's one of the more mind-boggling things I've seen written on here and that's saying something.

No s**t, not sure why you're telling me this, I agree fully with this and haven't once disputed it.

Correct. Very different from the "impossibility" that it being over would make it, hence my initial post.

If you say so, I haven't looked into how often this sort of thing happens. Stephen Bradbury might be able to tell me. Or Richmond, as just a couple of examples that come very quickly to mind. If you want to go call them "miracles" and pretend they didn't happen or can't happen again then knock yourself out I guess.

Sounds to me like you're just scared to get your hopes up, which is unfortunate.

Step aside mate, plugger has spoken.

 

[plugger66]

Step aside mate, plugger has spoken.

You seem fascinated with me. Its a little weird.

 

[George]

You seem fascinated with me. Its a little weird.

Haha.

This is easily the biggest game of our season and yes plugger the chances of us playing finals are going to be almost impossible with a loss this weekend but the key word here is almost. It's not illogical to think that North could lose their four remaining games and given how we've played against Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and the Bulldogs, it's not illogical to think that we could win our last four. Tough but we can do it. Don't you remember what happened in '97 mate have some faith

 

[plugger66]

Haha.

This is easily the biggest game of our season and yes plugger the chances of us playing finals are going to be almost impossible with a loss this weekend but the key word here is almost. It's not illogical to think that North could lose their four remaining games and given how we've played against Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and the Bulldogs, it's not illogical to think that we could win our last four. Tough but we can do it. Don't you remember what happened in '97 mate have some faith

Ive got plenty of faith. Unlike some who seem to be worried about winning our last 4 if we lose to North I'm looking at beating North and making the finals. Id rather the possible be the case instead of the almost impossible. Don't quite get the reference to 1997.