Prediction Changes for Round 8 vs Carlton

[Carringbush2010]

Asked the question in another thread and yes, two different players and now two different teams but which loss is more impacting Treloar’s last year or Tay’s now? Given personnel, team structure etc.

Hard to quantify really, Tay gives us 1st use of the ball where as Adam is a burst player. It's not really a big concern because we are system reliant rather than personnel reliant. All over the park it is clear we play a swarm and spread game - suffocate the oppo (except against wc - wtf is that?) and burn em on the ball win. Yeah Tay's important but we can cover him not 100% but can cover

 

[30yearpie]

I wouldn't mind trying 3 tall forwards against Carlton if Cox is ok.

With C.Curnow/McGovern/McKay as permanent forwards their forward line is pretty tall which means we could push Reid, even Mihocek back if the forward line is not working. We certainly can cover them with Moore/Roughead/Howe and maybe Langdon I'm not too worried about our height but it gives us flexibility to know that we have a spot to park one of our tall forwards if they're not working.

Mihocek can play pretty high up the ground as can Reid so I don't see why it can't work. I don't think it's the best make up for our team but worth a try as if it's viable it improves our depth. Other teams do it, Port to an extant (if you call Westhoff a tall), Carlton, Hawthorn occasionally, Brisbane, Sydney, WCE, sometimes Essendon, Geelong goes with it sometimes (Henry goes forward) and Adelaide have had up to 4 for the past 2 years. Certainly not the cream of the crop and it's not in vogue but it doesn't mean it can't work.

FigJam Lloyd on TV tonight supporting Mihocek to be dropped. DO NOT DROP Mihocek at any cost. Still not happy with Roughhead and haven't been since round 1.

Out Adams & Roughhead (Replace with All Australian backman Reid)
In Varcoe, Wills/Sier (if fit)

 

[sr36]

Hard to quantify really, Tay gives us 1st use of the ball where as Adam is a burst player. It's not really a big concern because we are system reliant rather than personnel reliant. All over the park it is clear we play a swarm and spread game - suffocate the oppo (except against wc - wtf is that?) and burn em on the ball win. Yeah Tay's important but we can cover him not 100% but can cover

Beautifully said. We tend to focus too much on the individual. When we get the swarm to the ball. We win it and then we spread, use it well and then we win. I think that's at the core of our issue with West Coast. We've become spooked by their intercepting and thus we try to spread too far out trying to be hit up to avoid the zone. The swarm gets separated and become ineffective, then we lose.

 

[PicaBoo]

FigJam Lloyd on TV tonight supporting Mihocek to be dropped. DO NOT DROP Mihocek at any cost. Still not happy with Roughhead and haven't been since round 1.

Out Adams & Roughhead (Replace with All Australian backman Reid)
In Varcoe, Wills/Sier (if fit)

Last time I checked, Reid played in the fwd line. So why drop the defender Roughy based upon a game that had none of Reid's current defensive abilities on display. We can just as well call for Moore to go fwd since he does so well in defense . All those potential swingmen should break in case of emergency options only.
Roughhead is doing fine so far and Reid wouldn't have made much of a difference.
Unless you get a better alternative for a tall outside Mihocheck and Cox , let's keep Reid fwd.

 

[ottoman]

My sister became a Bloose supporter when she married. She was a Bummers supporter

So disappointing.
Unfortunately there are many people out there who also have family members that have brought shame upon their families.
Good on you for being strong enough to talk about it publicly.
I wish you all the best in dealing with this situation.
We are with you.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Beautifully said. We tend to focus too much on the individual. When we get the swarm to the ball. We win it and then we spread, use it well and then we win. I think that's at the core of our issue with West Coast. We've become spooked by their intercepting and thus we try to spread too far out trying to be hit up to avoid the zone. The swarm gets separated and become ineffective, then we lose.

Great post Fonze! The problem with wc is that they guard space so well that it disallows us our "swarm" game on top of their uber efficient transition game. The only way to beat them is to "ugly" up the game. Pressure is our trademark and wc know how to get around it like they do melb and rich but if we can do a rich style and chaos the ball forward we're a chance.

What has come to pass apart from the QF is they know how to get around us, undermanned all be it we should've had them in that game. I'm gonna go David King style and look at the numbers- we should've won that game.

Time to get it back on our terms, instead trying to out WC WC how about we just do we like we do everyone else and win at the coalface. Look out carlton.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Great post Fonze! The problem with wc is that they guard space so well that it disallows us our "swarm" game on top of their uber efficient transition game. The only way to beat them is to "ugly" up the game. Pressure is our trademark and wc know how to get around it like they do melb and rich but if we can do a rich style and chaos the ball forward we're a chance.

What has come to pass apart from the QF is they know how to get around us, undermanned all be it we should've had them in that game. I'm gonna go David King style and look at the numbers- we should've won that game.

Time to get it back on our terms, instead trying to out WC WC how about we just do we like we do everyone else and win at the coalface. Look out carlton.

Just on "uglying"up the game against wc . There is a real danger we get burnt the other way - badly. However the only way to defeat wc IS to apply pressure, they don't like it but they deny it by guarding their territory - very well so. So how do we "apply" it?

Well that seems an easy answer right? Not so, in simple terms when we contest the footy we need to win it to have any chance and then we need to find space to find someone on the outside. Problem is wc are so quick at manning "space" it disallows us transition on the win of the ball.

In the last two meetings it's been evident that's it's been on their terms, time to change and it's uber risky but we need to ugly it up - take away their transition.

Bring on carlton.

In either of:
Aish
Wills
Sier

 

[BringouttheGimp]

Don't think it's that bad an idea bringing in Tom Wilson as a bit of a first up training hit out against Carlton.. ease him in to the game of AFL.

 

[Apex36]

FigJam Lloyd on TV tonight supporting Mihocek to be dropped. DO NOT DROP Mihocek at any cost. Still not happy with Roughhead and haven't been since round 1.

Out Adams & Roughhead (Replace with All Australian backman Reid)
In Varcoe, Wills/Sier (if fit)

Roughead has been great, dropping him would be idiocy.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Conceivably we could use Reid as replacement for all of our KP players

Cox still injured, plug in Reid
Rest Roughead, plug in Reid
Rest Darcy, plug in Reid
Rest DeGoey, plug in Reid
Rest Mihocek, plug in Reid

After that Reid would need a rest

Rinse and repeat

 

[good4footy]

Apparently Moore had a scan yesterday and didn't train.

 

[Ga Doey]

Apparently Moore had a scan yesterday and didn't train.

You know the drill.... "plug in Reid"

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

Apparently Moore had a scan yesterday and didn't train.

The first training session after a game isn't compulsory.

 

[Ga Doey]

Seems Maynard is a protected species around these parts One call to Omit and look out!

Everyone has their least favorite player and I guess he's mine. It used to be Langdon but he has grown on me considerably this year.

Dont get me wrong, I think Maynard is a good player, but his turnovers are costly and generally results in goals against a few time a match. But that said, I only suggested resting him for a weak to give Quaynor an opportunity against a weak Carlton team.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

View attachment 668948
Seems Maynard is a protected species around these parts One call to Omit and look out!

Everyone has their least favorite player and I guess he's mine. It used to be Langdon but he has grown on me considerably this year.

Dont get me wrong, I think Maynard is a good player, but his turnovers are costly and generally results in goals against a few time a match. But that said, I only suggested resting him for a weak to give Quaynor an opportunity against a weak Carlton team.

An interesting take.
Fair enough Maynard bothers you with a turn over in a game here and there.

On exposed form Quaynor seems to do the same but more frequently (as he’s learning the craft and the tempo of the game).

So the logic is drop a player for one turn over a game day for a player who is unproven but on exposed play was doing it more frequently.

 

[Ga Doey]

An interesting take.
Fair enough Maynard bothers you with a turn over in a game here and there.

On exposed form Quaynor seems to do the same but more frequently (as he’s learning the craft and the tempo of the game).

So the logic is drop a player for one turn over a game day for a player who is unproven but on exposed play was doing it more frequently.

I'll admit, doesn't make a great deal of sense when you sum it up like that, but, if there were ever an opportunity to blood a new player, this weekend is it.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I'll admit, doesn't make a great deal of sense when you sum it up like that, but, if there were ever an opportunity to blood a new player, this weekend is it.

And that’s a fair point too.
At some point you do have to pull the trigger for new players.

Very strong contests now for positions. Which is a good thing.

 

[kickitolachie]

There are no easy games in the competition. Every single one has to be won on the field, and Carlton are notorious for playing stronger against us.

Roughead has done some good work since arriving. He is steady, a good mark and a reliable kick. He doesn't panic. He is also slow covering his man on the lead, and this is probably the only area in which he is vulnerable. As long as there is a resting ruckman, few of whom are much good on the lead, in our opponents side, and there is at Carlton, he is needed. Against a side with a forward setup more like ours, he would have to be left out.

It is clear that for whatever reason (I certainly don't know), the coaches don't consider Reid a backman any more. Given that, there is no point speculating on his place in our backline. He is competing with Cox and Mihocek for their positions. Reid is probably the best footballer of the three, but he lacks the ground skills of Mihocek and the overhead threat of Cox.If all three play, our forward line becomes static and predictable. This is a job for super selector.

One would expect that Brown and Thomas will between them seek to take over Adams' duties. Unless a swift return of Seir occurs to confound this, then perhaps Wells comes back to further enhance the forwards, covering the goal kicking that seems to have deserted Thomas.

Aish could come back instead, or even Mayne if he is fit, but either of these means another change, probably Greenwood.

All in all, the selection dilemma is not "how do we scratch together cover with players not really suitable for what is required", but "which of the capable players is best for this week and the developing season". The choices last year were much less appealing.

 

[Unknown Identity]

OUT: Moore (rested) - Adams (inj)
IN: Quaynor - Wells

Roughead on McKay
Howe to Curnow

Not sure if Cox needs another week, if he's 80% i'd rest him again.

B: Maynard - Roughead - Langdon
HF: Quaynor - Howe - Crisp
C: Wells - Pendlebury - Sidebottom
HF: WHE - Mihocek - DeGoey
F: Elliott- Reid - Stephenson
R: Grundy - Beams - Treloar

INT: Brown - Phillips - Greenwood - Thomas

Josh Thomas on thin ice.

 

[BringouttheGimp]

Just offloaded a gorilla on Cox to snag the first at $17/1.

Also offloaded a gorilla on harry and meghan's baby boy's name being James at $8/1.

Wish me luck.

 

[jackcass]

OUT: Moore (rested) - Adams (inj)
IN: Quaynor - Wells

Roughead on McKay
Howe to Curnow

Not sure if Cox needs another week, if he's 80% i'd rest him again.

B: Maynard - Roughead - Langdon
HF: Quaynor - Howe - Crisp
C: Wells - Pendlebury - Sidebottom
HF: WHE - Mihocek - DeGoey
F: Elliott- Reid - Stephenson
R: Grundy - Beams - Treloar

INT: Brown - Phillips - Greenwood - Thomas

Josh Thomas on thin ice.

You expecting Casboult to get dropped?

 

[unplugged]

Once again, I don't think Cox will be rushed back. It's as simple as replacing Adams...

I think it'll be Wells but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Quaynor or Aish and a slight restructure.

 

[Unknown Identity]

You expecting Casboult to get dropped?

If Cox isn't 100% and Moore is having scans.. i doubt we risk either because of Casboult (he was switched to defence in the last half because of Jones injury)

If he causes issues, Reid to defence and we play a smaller fwd line.

Or Maybe Goldsack comes in also.

 

[Finnishpie]

Good things come to those that wait.

Excellent, since he won't be back until the last month of the season.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

I really don't think Moore is that much of a concern. Loads of players have precautionary scans - Moore finished the game on Friday and was in a contest right up until the final siren.