Preview Changes: R18 2019 vs Essendon

[Betts are off]

Just watched the SANFL highlights, and saw Fog bursting through from center clearance looking like a man mountain.

I’ve been on the “he’ll never be fit enough to be an AFL midfielder” side of the argument, but I admit, I liked that footage a lot.

Maybe I was wrong!

I hope they play him through the guts again this week. I want more of that!

 

[Vader]

Just watched the SANFL highlights, and saw Fog bursting through from center clearance looking like a man mountain.

I’ve been on the “he’ll never be fit enough to be an AFL midfielder” side of the argument, but I admit, I liked that footage a lot.

Maybe I was wrong!

I hope they play him through the guts again this week. I want more of that!

I love his aggression towards the ball, his marking, and his awesome kicking.

Sadly, a lot his ability to burst through like that is due to his size - which is arguably the biggest thing holding him back from having a fantastic AFL career.

 

[Morning_Fog]

If Brown doesn't get up, is McPherson any chance of coming in ?

McPherson isn’t a lock down defender, so it would not be like for like with Brown. McPherson is an attacking half back who has rhe ability to run off and find the ball as a running link up player.

However, due to his very limited football over the past 18 months, IMO he has zero chance of playing this year.

Round 1 could come into play next year should he have a solid pre season.

If anyone of our younger players was to come in for Brown, I would suggest Hamill could be a strong candidate.

 

[Betts are off]

I love his aggression towards the ball, his marking, and his awesome kicking.

Sadly, a lot his ability to burst through like that is due to his size - which is arguably the biggest thing holding him back from having a fantastic AFL career.

I know what you are saying, and in many ways I totally agree, but the question that’s on my mind is, what if it isn’t?

What if, we had a big bodied midfielder, who is almost the exact same height/weight as Patrick Cripps (2cm shorter, same weight) with an elite kick and a nasty mongrel nature on our list that we are not giving the opportunity to develop?

I mean, Roo wasn’t fast or agile, or Scott Thompson, Matt Crouch certainly isn’t fast, and was notoriously unfit when he was drafted. Maybe we are hanging onto these pre-conceives notions of what we need in a midfielder, and instead we should just let the kid play. Maybe he’s the kind of talent that changes what we think we need.

I’d be fine with a 6-7 week experiment to finish the season in the 2’s. If he doesn’t pan out the forward line will always be there. What have we got to lose?

 

[LC40]

Because like how the Darren Jarmans (and even M Bickley though he may still have a place as a small defender) types have completely vanished from this game with no hope to ever return, the game has simply moved on from how you are judging players. A natural progression really as more people are at the cutting edge, and from that the game becomes more and more optimized.

A teams most offensive oriented piece nowadays is the half back, and that is no matter what style of play you use as the defensive game has moved to a high zonal defense. This makes sense defensively because the ideal position to defend from is the other side hemmed into their back 50, and it's easy to set up. Any mistake has the potential to reload in a dangerous spot, and equally any puncture is not going to be at a point where a score is nearly guaranteed. The trade off to hemming the ball in your back 50 is you are giving a lot of easy ball to the half back lines. This gives why offensive skill in your half back line is ridiculously important, because that zone needs to be broken if your team is going to have any hope of winning whatsoever, and that scenario demands you give your most skilled players as many chances as possible to do so because of the heightened fail rate of any attacking move. Not only that, but due to that strategy of suffocation, you've also lessened the amount of pure defensive skills required from a half back as there are much more players present in the vast majority of plays. Of course, they still need some defensive skills (with the big one being intercept marking as it allows more easy ball) but it's definitely lessened compared to more critical positions with that.

The defensive team also needs to be aware of this, and in particular, what is the worst outcome possible for them with a half back getting the ball out? The answer to that question is the half back running at them, as the most effective way to break down a zonal defense is to run at it (ideally in waves) as the constant adjustment to respond to that will end up causing weak points. How do you stop a running game? Pressure and to get the most of it, you put the fastest guy who has good defensive skills in the area that the opposition can do that damage, which is the main reason we've seen the counter push of half forwards going more defensive. After all, no matter how good of a kick the half back is, it's an easier scenario to defend then if they're breaking lines by running and that inevitable upswing in defense ends up leading to more opportunities to create scores. A bit of offensive skills here are nice, but it's not the cake.

For what you are talking about, man on man football has to come back. It's never coming back because it's way too inefficient defensively, and as the old adage goes, defenses win premierships.

I must say reading your stuff is like reading a lawyers report, comprehensive, intense and I need to read it thrice.
It's an interesting read and a lot of it makes sense but why so preachy and dogmatic.

Because like how the Darren Jarmans (and even M Bickley though he may still have a place as a small defender) types have completely vanished from this game with no hope to ever return, the game has simply moved on from how you are judging players.

Well in your opinion that maybe the case but I just might judge footballer's differently to you and I don't know of any definitive manual out there on how the game must be played.

A natural progression really as more people are at the cutting edge, and from that the game becomes more and more optimized.

We are talking football here, "more and more optimized" what does that actually mean?
The game changes, trends are followed, strategies developed and we see the game evolve but that doesn't make my opinion wrong... just different...different from yours.

A teams most offensive oriented piece nowadays is the half back, and that is no matter what style of play you use as the defensive game has moved to a high zonal defense.

Yep I understood your premise but I tend to disagree on some aspects.
My most offensive oriented piece would be the forward; full forward, centre half forward, half forward, forward pocket...the blokes that kick the goals, one has a poor game another steps up.
You know score board pressure and those old cliches.
(Lets not forget midfielders, particularly goal scoring midfielders as an offensive option.)

For what you are talking about, man on man football has to come back. It's never coming back because it's way too inefficient defensively, and as the old adage goes, defenses win premierships.

I actually don't believe I'm specifically talking man on man football at all. That's one of many strategies, as is high zonal defenses and flooding and dropping an extra player back in defense and...
What I like to see is the fundamentals done well... football played as a team.
Shepherding for one another, big men bringing the ball down to the crumbing forwards if they can't take the mark(contest), intense pressure, chasing, tackling etc and forwards primarily there to kick goals.
All players should be expected to tackle and chase when it's their turn, this is not a specialized skill set.
I also believe in a strong spine, quick ball movement, the single gun theory, not kicking backwards as a first option,not hand balling to the stationary man right next to you, kicking both feet, having a plan A,plan B and plan C, tagging as a tactic and that defenses win premierships.

 

[Vader]

I know what you are saying, and in many ways I totally agree, but the question that’s on my mind is, what if it isn’t?

What if, we had a big bodied midfielder, who is almost the exact same height/weight as Patrick Cripps (2cm shorter, same weight) with an elite kick and nasty mongrel nature on our list that we are not giving the opportunity to develop?

I mean, Roo wasn’t fast or agile, or Scott Thompson, Matt Crouch certainly isn’t fast, and was notoriously unfit when he was drafted. Maybe we are hanging onto these pre-conceives notions of what we need in a midfielder, and instead we should just let the kid play. Maybe he’s the kind of talent that changes what we think we need.

I’d be fine with a 6-7 week experiment to finish the season in the 2’s. If he doesn’t pan out the forward line will always be there. What have we got to lose?

If he can fix his speed, agility, and endurance, without having to lose weight - then that's fine by me. However, I think the reason his weight is the main reason why he lacks these attributes.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

They didn't bother tagging him, because they didn't feel the need to. The result clearly indicates that they made the right decision.

They are a different proposition this time though especially with Bolton gone. That and also our dreadful form at the MCG spell a danger game next week.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Prepare to be disappointed.

I know I will be

I would say the case for keeping Stengle in the side is even stronger with the speed that Essendon has out of the backline in McKenna and Saad. Need to prevent that run

 

[Betts are off]

If he can fix his speed, agility, and endurance, without having to lose weight - then that's fine by me. However, I think the reason his weight is the main reason why he lacks these attributes.

I don’t disagree, but for me I think he’s not playing AFL this season at this rate, so play him Midfield for at least 40-50% of games for the rest of the season in the Magoo’s. And send him into the 2019 preseason with some runs on the board and those exact goals!

I’d way prefer that then giving Dougy or even Wilson those minutes. The ship has sailed with them. Time to focus on the Midfield development of these kids

 

[TheLeftFist8]

I would say the case for keeping Stengle in the side is even stronger with the speed that Essendon has out of the backline in McKenna and Saad. Need to prevent that run

Might work the opposite way sadly.

Lynch, a slow non-defensive player, will come in. Unlikely that JJ, Tex, Greenwood will be dropped (until CEY returns).

So 1 of the 4 rotating smaller forwards will be likely removed from their role and Stengle is the worst of the 4 defensively.

I wouldn’t drop him but I think it will happen.


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[Vader]

I don’t disagree, but for me I think he’s not playing AFL this season at this rate, so play him Midfield for at least 40-50% of games for the rest of the season in the Magoo’s. And send him into the 2019 preseason with some runs on the board and those exact goals!

I’d way prefer that then giving Dougy or even Wilson those minutes. The ship has sailed with them. Time to focus on the Midfield development of these kids

I'm not sure that he'll ever end up as a midfielder. I see him as Tex's natural replacement.

I do, however, agree with your sentiments re: Douglas & Wilson.

 

[spenze]

I know what you are saying, and in many ways I totally agree, but the question that’s on my mind is, what if it isn’t?

What if, we had a big bodied midfielder, who is almost the exact same height/weight as Patrick Cripps (2cm shorter, same weight) with an elite kick and nasty mongrel nature on our list that we are not giving the opportunity to develop?

I mean, Roo wasn’t fast or agile, or Scott Thompson, Matt Crouch certainly isn’t fast, and was notoriously unfit when he was drafted. Maybe we are hanging onto these pre-conceives notions of what we need in a midfielder, and instead we should just let the kid play. Maybe he’s the kind of talent that changes what we think we need.

I’d be fine with a 6-7 week experiment to finish the season in the 2’s. If he doesn’t pan out the forward line will always be there. What have we got to lose?

I'm all for the 6-7 week experiment but Fog needs to put miles into his legs this off season. Pair him up with Jones or Ned and get him running. He needs to come back fit, even super fit. Not just for the option of getting in the middle but fitness is holding him out of the side in my view, he did not turn up in great condition ( from all accounts Stengle called him tubby...Stengle..let that sit with you for a minute).

The guy could be a hell of a player for this club but he needs to have elite fitness, so the club should go out of its way to make it happen. A forward who could get up and down the ground with his aggression would be the balls, if we can sneak him into the centre for 5 mins here or there, that would be Jonno Brown like*

*Story goes the year Jonno Brown did some stints in the middle, he would saunter in and announce to the oppo midfielders " so which one of you campaigners is standing on me".

 

[spenze]

If he can fix his speed, agility, and endurance, without having to lose weight - then that's fine by me. However, I think the reason his weight is the main reason why he lacks these attributes.

Speed isn't the problem, endurance is at present, he can afford to lose a few kgs without it making a massive difference but I still see him as a forward

 

[Betts are off]

I'm not sure that he'll ever end up as a midfielder. I see him as Tex's natural replacement.

I do, however, agree with your sentiments re: Douglas & Wilson.

Mate, even if we do this exact plan (which we won’t) he will still face an uphill battle. 100% agree.

But I guess I’m just starting to think that it might be a risk that I’m willing to take.

 

[Betts are off]

I'm all for the 6-7 week experiment but Fog needs to put miles into his legs this off season. Pair him up with Jones or Ned and get him running. He needs to come back fit, even super fit. Not just for the option of getting in the middle but fitness is holding him out of the side in my view, he did not turn up in great condition ( from all accounts Stengle called him tubby...Stengle..let that sit with you for a minute).

The guy could be a hell of a player for this club but he needs to have elite fitness, so the club should go out of its way to make it happen. A forward who could get up and down the ground with his aggression would be the balls, if we can sneak him into the centre for 5 mins here or there, that would be Jonno Brown like*

*Story goes the year Jonno Brown did some stints in the middle, he would saunter in and announce to the oppo midfielders " so which one of you campaigners is standing on me".

Couldn’t agree more regarding getting the run into his legs. And it’s something that needs to be this clubs #1 priority. For me if FOG isn’t playing 15 games minimum next season then there is something seriously seriously wrong. That’s why throwing him through the middle for the remainder of the season would be great for him.

Let him work into those running loads this season so next season he’s got that bank of games under his belt

 

[Vader]

Speed isn't the problem, endurance is at present, he can afford to lose a few kgs without it making a massive difference but I still see him as a forward

I think all 3 factors are a concern, but I'm not going to argue over it. Happy for you to see things differently.

 

[Golumless]

I love his aggression towards the ball, his marking, and his awesome kicking.

Sadly, a lot his ability to burst through like that is due to his size - which is arguably the biggest thing holding him back from having a fantastic AFL career.

At his size, that's not going to change with the switch to AFL.

He's not 185-186 cm coming into a league where everyone is at the same size. Put him in the midfield, and he'd still be one of the biggest and strongest players there in the league.

 

[Betts are off]

At his size, that's not going to change with the switch to AFL.

He's not 185-186 cm coming into a league where everyone is at the same size. Put him in the midfield, and he'd still be one of the biggest and strongest players there in the league.

Agreed, I mean what do we have to lose right? If it works we could develop the big bodied premier mid we’ve all dreamed of since Danger left. Something every team is desperate for!

If it doesn’t, well, he’s still Tex’s air apparent. But maybe just a bit fitter!

 

[1970crow]

Facts are Sloane is unlikely to stand up and beat a decent tag...at least not by slogging it out in the midfield contest after contest.

We need to move him around far more...I think while that could unsettle some players, Sloane could easily cope. Mid, wing, high forward, deep forward...all options.

Just don't stay stagnant like a sitting duck like every other time.

I’ve been posting this for over 2 years. The easiest place to tag someone is from a standing start waiting for the umpire to throw the ball up. It’s infuriating watching it play out. He’s a great gut runner, the average tagger would hate playing on him running up and down the ground. Or he could start off the stoppage and arrive while in motion with tagger in tow. This removes the easy block and you’ve got them chasing you which isn’t their easiest method of being able to control you. Standing side by side while stationary is giving the tagger a hell of a leg up.

 

[crows dude]

Agreed, I mean what do we have to lose right? If it works we could develop the big bodied premier mid we’ve all dreamed of since Danger left. Something every team is desperate for!

If it doesn’t, well, he’s still Tex’s air apparent. But maybe just a bit fitter!

Tex is fitter than Fog. By a long way

 

[Alwaysacrow]

The guy could be a hell of a player for this club but he needs to have elite fitness, so the club should go out of its way to make it happen. A forward who could get up and down the ground with his aggression would be the balls, if we can sneak him into the centre for 5 mins here or there, that would be Jonno Brown like*

I agree. I'll never forget his steely eyes in his 1st shot at goal in round 1 vs Essendon last year. We ended up losing the game but I knew right then we had a serious player. Fitness is his biggest challenge IMO. I'm not fussed if he doesn't play an AFL game this year but in the 2's they should play him up forward plus stints in the midfield.

 

[Bicks]

Tex is fitter than Fog. By a long way

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Fogarty's speed and agility for a big bodied 19 year old lad, nothing at all, Endurance however is still his major weakness but you can be sure both the club and Darcy himself are working on it.

 

[Betts are off]

Tex is fitter than Fog. By a long way

It was implied that his time in the Midfield would make him fitter then a KPF. If that wasn’t clear I apologise

 

[Geoffa32]

Would not be too unhappy with unchanged.



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[Bicks]