Preview Changes: R6 2019 vs St Kilda

[Vooligan]

This seems overly dramatic?

Fogarty handling is “interesting”. Most would agree he should be playing AFL somewhere. He still played 10 games in year one.

Other than that, you have:

Jones - 2018 draftee, played first few games at AFL level this year until concussion

McHenry - 2018 draftee, developing in SANFL which is fine

Gallucci - 2016 draftee, played 16 games in year two, now building fitness and form in SANFL after missing pre season

Milera and Doedee would be playing if they weren’t injured.

I’m delighted we are persisting with Himmelberg and Jenkins is still in reserves.

My thoughts exactly. I’m fine with the selections - we didn’t gift Jenkins a spot back, persisting with EH, and rewarding Poholke for a good SANFL showing.

Yes, I would definitely like Gallucci in there, but let’s see how he goes this week in the magoos.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I don't think its that simple. Players don't make it for a variety of reasons, hardly one persons fault, especially a job as hard as his.

I'm pretty confident even the best of the best have 'botched' multiple 1st rounders over the journey.

So it's not the talent identification, and it's not the development? We both drafted talented players, and got their development right, and for complex reasons they somehow all didnt make it?

Just unlucky I guess. Whoopsidaisy. Promotions for all.

 

[Scorpus]

My thoughts exactly. I’m fine with the selections - we didn’t gift Jenkins a spot back, persisting with EH, and rewarding Poholke for a good SANFL showing.

Yes, I would definitely like Gallucci in there, but let’s see how he goes this week in the magoos.

If only there was some possible way we could have seen a fit Gallucci in the magoos last week

 

[Glenny83]

Poholke deserves his spot, he’s earned it. I was definitely in the camp that thought he didn’t have what it takes for AFL and he might not, but he has taken his state game to a high level so I’d like to see him play consecutive games.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cap]

So it's not the talent identification, and it's not the development? We both drafted talented players, and got their development right, and for complex reasons they somehow all didnt make it?

Just unlucky I guess. Whoopsidaisy. Promotions for all.

Lol, now you are just bringing in multiple discussions points just to suit your club bashing agenda.

Getting pretty boring.

 

[spenze]

I'm glad Jenkins didn't get back this week, would have been piss week.

 

[ShadeyP]

You might have a hard time convincing Robbie Gray of all those weaknesses. Brain farts are his biggest burden.

Yeah , way to make an argument with one player on what 1 or 2 games when the team was functioning well .
That is a weak example and quite typical of your mindset .

 

[Southerntakeover]

Lol, now you are just bringing in multiple discussions points just to suit your club bashing agenda.

Getting pretty boring.

Less discussion points! Less!

Look, it's not my fault you didnt think through the implications of your first post. Or the second.

 

[Cap]

Less discussion points! Less!

Look, it's not my fault you didnt think through the implications of your first post. Or the second.

No its not about less, you took a comment and tried to extrapolate, out of context, other issues.

Responding to your post could be literal threads of discussion.


Your point, 1st rounders in SANFL = shit selectors.

My point, or we could have burned one or two first rounders. So not a broad the club is perfect or everything is dandy. Just your point isn't really the only option.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

You could understand our first round picks not being able to break into the team if we were really successful

 

[Cap]

You could understand our first round picks not being able to break into the team if we were really successful

I think our selection policies as a club are a joke, they've been like that for over a decade.

Do you remember when the big 4 were getting close to retirement?, even then we still wouldn't drop the 22nd player to blood youth.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I think our selection policies as a club are a joke, they've been like that for over a decade.

Do you remember when the big 4 were getting close to retirement?, even then we still wouldn't drop the 22nd player to blood youth.

We've only ever promoted young players if a hole gets created not of our choosing. Either injury or players walking out.

Milera can only play half back if Smith does his ACL
Talia only plays if Scott Stevens is forced into retirement by concussion and Phil Davis leaves to GWS
Doedee needs Lever to disappear

There is rarely any long term thinking or foresight. We just react to the immediate circumstances and luckily our recruiters/developers usually have a stockpile of decent options waiting. Enough to keep us where we are anyway.

At times it's depressing to follow us. It would be even more depressing to play there which is why so many players leave.

 

[jackster83]

I think our selection policies as a club are a joke, they've been like that for over a decade.

Do you remember when the big 4 were getting close to retirement?, even then we still wouldn't drop the 22nd player to blood youth.

Was that when Craig described Burton as "solid?"

 

[GreyCrow]

, even then we still wouldn't drop the 22nd player to blood youth.

I think this is the failure in the club. That it has gone on for over a decade suggests it is cultural and at a higher level than the coaches. I think the ''finish as high as we can'' mantra even affects genuine responsible development

The line about the 22nd player is valid and one major blind spot . If a 15-22 player has a bad 2-3 games then its not going to break the side to replace them with a draft pick. It seems our policy is youth in youth out which defeats the purpose of drafting them

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

We've only ever promoted young players if a hole gets created not of our choosing. Either injury or players walking out.

Milera can only play half back if Smith does his ACL
Talia only plays if Scott Stevens is forced into retirement by concussion and Phil Davis leaves to GWS
Doedee needs Lever to disappear

There is rarely any long term thinking or foresight. We just react to the immediate circumstances and luckily our recruiters/developers usually have a stockpile of decent options waiting. Enough to keep us where we are anyway.

At times it's depressing to follow us. It would be even more depressing to play there which is why so many players leave.

Absolutely agree with this. I wonder if someone like Doedee was playing alongside Lever in 2017 whether we would have been even better?

 

[Cap]

We've only ever promoted young players if a hole gets created not of our choosing. Either injury or players walking out.

Milera can only play half back if Smith does his ACL
Talia only plays if Scott Stevens is forced into retirement by concussion and Phil Davis leaves to GWS
Doedee needs Lever to disappear

There is rarely any long term thinking or foresight. We just react to the immediate circumstances and luckily our recruiters/developers usually have a stockpile of decent options waiting. Enough to keep us where we are anyway.

At times it's depressing to follow us. It would be even more depressing to play there which is why so many players leave.

I think as a club we've taken the 'don't give away games' mantra wrong.

It feels like they expect the 1st year rookie to be as good as a 5 year player immediately and consistently, otherwise err with the experience despite obvious shortcomings.

But in effect, we are giving away games and far too many.

 

[ABAB]

We've only ever promoted young players if a hole gets created not of our choosing. Either injury or players walking out.

Milera can only play half back if Smith does his ACL
Talia only plays if Scott Stevens is forced into retirement by concussion and Phil Davis leaves to GWS
Doedee needs Lever to disappear

There is rarely any long term thinking or foresight. We just react to the immediate circumstances and luckily our recruiters/developers usually have a stockpile of decent options waiting. Enough to keep us where we are anyway.

At times it's depressing to follow us. It would be even more depressing to play there which is why so many players leave.

That's because we have never really bottom out and have been there about through out our entire existence in the AFL so we've never played a lot of youngsters all at once, unlike those teams that go through a complete rebuild for 2-4 years. The players that left have been established and were not disgruntle young players (only Gunston comes to mind and he was getting games when he left). And we do play the youngsters that's why we received plenty of rising star nomination, Jones and Poholke played this year. I can't see any current position for Fogarty or McHenry unless Lynch and Murphy are dropped, Gallucci has been working off an interrupted preseason but he should in the team soon, you would think.

 

[CrowBloke]

... we need a burst of speed by foot. I can't see a single player on our list who can provide that.

Not one?
Please go to https://www.afc.com.au/video/2019-04-21/highlights-r5-v-gold-coast and watch last week's highlights, especially the Smith goal (marks, falls forward flat on his face, gets up quickly --- too quickly for the oppo blokes who remained on their feet --- quickly finds space then BOOM, goal from 55m),
and btw regarding the Betts GOTW, the ball was delivered to him by a speedy Sloane at full pelt,
and
the Mackay to Betts goal, where Mackay hares through the middle from D50 arc after making a hard tackle. NO guarantee that Mackay will back up on Saturday --- we can only hope --- but for speed we do have Smith, Sloane, Mackay and even Atkins on the outside. That's four. Laird's not too shabby either, but he's been tagged lately which has slowed him down.

 

[Scorpus]

We've only ever promoted young players if a hole gets created not of our choosing. Either injury or players walking out.

Milera can only play half back if Smith does his ACL
Talia only plays if Scott Stevens is forced into retirement by concussion and Phil Davis leaves to GWS
Doedee needs Lever to disappear

There is rarely any long term thinking or foresight. We just react to the immediate circumstances and luckily our recruiters/developers usually have a stockpile of decent options waiting. Enough to keep us where we are anyway.

At times it's depressing to follow us. It would be even more depressing to play there which is why so many players leave.

It's pretty crazy to go back and see exactly where our players debuted and in what circumstances. Since 2010:

Brodie Smith - Round 1, 2011. Immediately plays due to a lack of running players and starts as the sub

Daniel Talia - Round 15, 2011. Plays an entire year in the SANFL, then comes in after Bock leaves for Gold Coast, and Scott Stevens retirement. Plays almost exactly a month before Phil Davis announces he is leaving for GWS

Luke Brown - Round 16, 2012. Becomes clear that Michael Doughty would retire at the end of 2012 so gets a debut but plays only 3 games that season. Actually replaces Doughty who gets injured.

Brad Crouch - Round 2, 2013. Despite being an elite talent, we play Brad in the SANFL to start 2013! He had 31 touches in the SANFL, so we bring him in for BRODIE MARTIN. Yep, we played Brodie Martin over Brad Crouch

Rory Laird - Round 4, 2013. Spends an entire year in the SANFL, and comes in to replace Nathan Van Berlo who gets injured.

Kyle Hartigan - Round 18, 2013. Comes in for Ben Rutten who gets injured.

Matt Crouch - Round 3, 2014. Despite being a massive ball winner, an early draftee ready to go and coming off a season where we finished 11th, Matt starts the year in the SANFL. Comes in for Brad Crouch who gets injured.

Cam Ellis-Yolmen - Round 12, 2014. Spends two and a half seasons in the SANFL. Brought in for Matthew Wright who gets dropped. But CEY only plays one game then is immediately dropped, and doesn't play again that year.

Jake Kelly - Round 3, 2015. Comes in for Cheney who gets injured

Riley Knight - Round 15, 2015. Spends a year and a half in the SANFL. Comes in for Sloane who gets injured.

Rory Atkins - Round 16, 2015. Spends two and a half years in the SANFL. Gets brought in for CEY after we get smashed by West Coast

Wayne Milera - Round 1, 2016. Spot opens up after we delist Matthew Wright and Dangerfield leaves

Reilly O'Brien - Round 20, 2016. Comes in for Jacobs who gets injured

Jordan Gallucci - Round 9, 2017. Elite talent, but only plays a single game in the entire year, this token one after we drop Mackay.

Hugh Greenwood - Round 9, 2017. Comes in for Menzel who gets injured.

Alex Keath - Round 18, 2017. Comes in for an injured Hartigan

Tom Doedee - Round 1, 2018. Lever departs so a spot opens up for him

Darcy Fogarty - Round 1, 2018. Comes in for Walker who is injured.

Lachie Murphy - Round 1, 2018. Cameron leaving opens up a spot for him

Myles Poholke - Round 5, 2018. Comes in for Sloane who is injured

Patrick Wilson - Round 13, 2018. Comes in for one of three omitted players!

Elliott Himmelberg - Round 23, 2018. Comes in to play a token final round match when we finish out of the finals, with Walker injured

Chayce Jones - Round 1, 2019. Possibly earns it, possibly comes in for an injured Seedsman or an empty forward line spot

 

[Sanders]

Four first round picks running around in the SANFL. Four.

There's a clear disconnect between our recruiters and the coaching staff.

There’s meant to be

 

[CrowBloke]

Gotta reward form with Poholke
Gallucci just didn't do enough

This, unless you were being sarcastic.
They didn't drop Milera for Poholke.
Now we just have to hope that Poholke gets some midfield time, rotating forward with BCrouch. Let's hope they learned from Round 4.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

The perfect non-example is Himmelberg coming in for a poor performing Jenkins.

Hallelujah!

Talented younger player in, deteriorating older player out. More power to us.

How long will it last? For a club with strong leadership and clear direction it would be permanent.

 

[Scorpus]

So in summary, of the players since 2010 that we drafted:

SIX players made our round 1 side. Of those six players, two obviously replaced departed players (Doedee and Murphy). Another was an injury replacement (Fogarty). The other three you could make cases were assisted due to injuries or departures as well

ELEVEN players debut only because another player in their exact position gets injured (Brown, Laird, Hartigan, M. Crouch, Kelly, Knight, O'Brien, Greenwood, Keath, Fogarty, Poholke)

THREE players make a debut due to an unforced change but then get dropped immediately and don't play again that season (CEY, Wilson and Gallucci)

I can only make genuine cases for a handful of players who force their way in due to talent, replace an inferior player on merit and DON'T replace an injured or departing player. Those are Smith, Brad Crouch, Atkins and possibly Milera, Talia and Jones

 

[Scorpus]

Some particularly egregious examples of mismanaged debuts include:

- Brad Crouch needing to force out Brodie Martin to get a game
- Gallucci debuting for Mackay who doesn't play SANFL then immediately returns
- CEY playing as the sub in his single 2011 match then getting dropped for the rest of the season
- Tom Lynch who I didn't mention earlier: we brought him across from St Kilda then substituted him three times in a row before dropping him
- Jack Gunston playing a single game in 2011 then getting dropped for 9 weeks
- Jarryd Lyons debuting on the ground then getting the green vest the following two weeks, only to be dropped for the rest of the season after that
- Mitch Grigg debuting in the green vest, getting dropped, then coming back a week later also in the green vest. Then gets 18 touches and a goal in his 3rd match and gets dropped.

Amazingly, despite finishing 11th in 2013 we only try out four new players in the entire season

 

[CrowBloke]

If a 15-22 player has a bad 2-3 games then its not going to break the side to replace them with a draft pick

This should be high on our list of selection rules.
15-22 players who have poor form should be replaced, regardless of age/service. Rarely happens.
Atkins (often), Mackay (often, not last game though) and Hartigan (last 2 games) fall into that zone.
It's going to be a long wait for Seedsman and Milera to return, then get back their form.