Prediction Changes Round 10 v Geelong

[Willsy10]

I was suprised we had orazio as sub, he is obviously closer than I thought and perhaps they think he can go straight in without a run in the sanfl. We could’ve easily had an injury in the first quarter so they must’ve been confident he’d be okay out there.

The sanfl game is being played in Loxton too, I wonder if playing on a country ground with extra travel is also playing on their selection minds with both Dixon and Fantasia.

Strangely despite banking an sanfl game it seems Dixon is less likely than Fantasia. I think they would’ve played Dixon in the wafl if they thought he could get up for the cats.

Dixon will probably make the trip to Loxton I reckon for the Ebert match, as will Bergman, big coup for the Loxton community.

In: Jonas, Fantasia
Out: frederick, ?


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[Willsy10]

I guess the assumption is that Jonas has recovered in time from covid. That’s definitely no guarantee.


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[NoddyHolder]

I guess the assumption is that Jonas has recovered in time from covid. That’s definitely no guarantee.


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Did he have it, or just isolating as a close contact?

 

[Expat power]

I cringe when I see posts calling for Motlop to be dropped.

His current role is similar to Boak's old role. Mots has been learning this over time and has the defensive side pretty much nailed and is now working hard to incorporate attack to the role. He is working his ass off every game and it's there for all to see. It's very clear his team mates appreciate his work rate too.

To see posts calling for him to be dropped this week is crazy. 18 disposals, 2 goals and 2 goal assists.

Yep, the other thing people don’t seem to see are his leadership qualities in the forward line. It’s always him explaining the set up. Marshall is smart but Georgiardis still requires a lot of guidance and it’s Mots that’s helping him. I just hope he makes it through the season, his ankle is completely buggered he can barely walk of the ground at the end of a game.

 

[Expat power]

Geelong aren't going to allow a huge hole of space in our forward line for Marshall, Georgie and Jezza to lead into.

I think we need to bring in Dixon for this reason, but also be more targeted towards kicking to all of our players on a lead.

Try what we did against North and we will see a billion intercept marks.

The one thing we have going for us is our coach knows the ground well. Our 2017 side would have won there had it not been for Charlie’s brain fart and an over zealous umpire - Geelong were a better side than us in 2017 but we played the ground well. Weird to think we haven’t been back to GMHBA since. Without a fully fit Charlie I don’t see how we win this De Kooning is 204cm and full of confidence, if Hawkins kicks straight we’ll struggle.

 

[ROBBBO]

Lets not rush Jonas back. I'm thinking another 13 rounds to be fully recovered should do the trick.

Will need him this week champ

 

[Willsy10]

Did he have it, or just isolating as a close contact?

Not sure, sorry.


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[Blinky Nyland]

Hinkley strongly hinted (apparently these things have a cloke of secrecy) that he had it. The loss by Freo was in part being attributed to bringing their Covid affected players back to soon by the Fox commentators. I would be wary of picking Jonas next week. Its a pity Skinner has not come on, he looks a good size to compete with Hawkins but unfortunately he's not up to AFL standard at this stage.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Geelong aren't going to allow a huge hole of space in our forward line for Marshall, Georgie and Jezza to lead into.

I think we need to bring in Dixon for this reason, but also be more targeted towards kicking to all of our players on a lead.

Try what we did against North and we will see a billion intercept marks.

Geelong will have a better defensive structure and players, but those holes didn't open up just because, they opened up because our players moved for each other and generated space, and we lowered our eyes and honoured those leads. If Geelong are clogging up the corridor, just kick the ball to a 45 degree angle where we have plenty of players who can regularly make those shots. Generate a fear in Geelong that they can't let us have the wider shots either, and then through movement unlock space.

If we're bringing Dixon back so we can sit the ball on his head again, forfeit the season. We need to fully bed in this new strategy and get the players fully buying into it. In the last quarters against Brisbane and Adelaide, we threw away big leads partially because we reverted to the muscle memory of bombing long and high to enter the forward line.

This game is a much better test of our new, more conventional forward structure. They've had a few training runs, the talls are confident and in form, it's working, now let's try it out against a good team.

If it's functional (and I don't mean if we win, I mean if we can generate scoring opportunities) then bring Dixon in to be another cog in the machine. He's more than capable of being a leading, marking forward, and he'll probably go ham if we can get this system working with him in it.

 

[backtozero]

Geelong will have a better defensive structure and players, but those holes didn't open up just because, they opened up because our players moved for each other and generated space, and we lowered our eyes and honoured those leads. If Geelong are clogging up the corridor, just kick the ball to a 45 degree angle where we have plenty of players who can regularly make those shots. Generate a fear in Geelong that they can't let us have the wider shots either, and then through movement unlock space.

If we're bringing Dixon back so we can sit the ball on his head again, forfeit the season. We need to fully bed in this new strategy and get the players fully buying into it. In the last quarters against Brisbane and Adelaide, we threw away big leads partially because we reverted to the muscle memory of bombing long and high to enter the forward line.

This game is a much better test of our new, more conventional forward structure. They've had a few training runs, the talls are confident and in form, it's working, now let's try it out against a good team.

If it's functional (and I don't mean if we win, I mean if we can generate scoring opportunities) then bring Dixon in to be another cog in the machine. He's more than capable of being a leading, marking forward, and he'll probably go ham if we can get this system working with him in it.

I didn't say the hole opened up "just because" but you can bet that Geelong will have a spare man pushing back into wherever the ball is headed.
Not only have they always killed us in the intercept marking department but they will be focussed on it due to it being pointed out during the game multiple times.
As I said in my initial post, we need to be more targeted towards players on a lead, but we can't assume that Geelong are going to allow a paddock in the middle of the 50 for that to happen. They will plug it up.

I know the three talls currently look good against poor opposition and undersized defenders but Geelong will be less likely to zone off if Dixon is in the 50.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I didn't say the hole opened up "just because" but you can bet that Geelong will have a spare man pushing back into wherever the ball is headed.
Not only have they always killed us in the intercept marking department but they will be focussed on it due to it being pointed out during the game multiple times.
As I said in my initial post, we need to be more targeted towards players on a lead, but we can't assume that Geelong are going to allow a paddock in the middle of the 50 for that to happen. They will plug it up.

I know the three talls currently look good against poor opposition and undersized defenders but Geelong will be less likely to zone off if Dixon is in the 50.

They kill us in intercept marks because we bomb it long and high to their intercept defenders.

If we keep kicking it to a variety of leading forwards and to our forwards advantage we can take advantage of their lack of pace and their sagging off.

 

[FishingRick04]

No current forward can be dropped on form.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I didn't say the hole opened up "just because" but you can bet that Geelong will have a spare man pushing back into wherever the ball is headed.
Not only have they always killed us in the intercept marking department but they will be focussed on it due to it being pointed out during the game multiple times.
As I said in my initial post, we need to be more targeted towards players on a lead, but we can't assume that Geelong are going to allow a paddock in the middle of the 50 for that to happen. They will plug it up.

I know the three talls currently look good against poor opposition and undersized defenders but Geelong will be less likely to zone off if Dixon is in the 50.

They have done well against us in the past because we have been so tragically predictable going forward though. That's now out the window, so things might be different this time. We won't know if we don't try.

Geelong aren't some all conquering side this year, they're 5-4. It's a much greater test than North, sure, but it's a good opportunity to take the training wheels off the current forward system and try it against a good side who have previously hurt us with intercept marking.

 

[bringbackbucky]

If Dixon comes back, I’d play him as a 2nd ruck, swapping off the bench… keep the forward line as it is.

 

[PortVic]

I think the negative comments on Mots are a bit misplaced this year. He is working extremely hard and some of his link up play contributes to shots on goal. Do people not see this ?

Don’t think it comes across how hard he works up the wings on TV. Watching him live @ the ground he does a lot of gut running.

 

[El_Scorcho]

If Dixon comes back, I’d play him as a 2nd ruck, swapping off the bench… keep the forward line as it is.

Yep. Dixon is a brilliant forward. If we'd been playing the forward system we have this season since he joined the club, he'd probably have 100 extra career goals. He will still be the lynchpin if he's there and he makes us a better side. I'm just mentally readying myself for a return to route 1 forward entries because this coach can't be trusted to play a brave forward setup.

He's also arguably our best all round ruckman and should definitely 2nd ruck. This will help reduce the reliance on him going forward as well.

 

[Expat power]

If Dixon comes back, I’d play him as a 2nd ruck, swapping off the bench… keep the forward line as it is.

Timmy G suggested exactly that to Montgomery tonight, it wasn’t ruled out. Who do you drop for Dixon to come in assuming Jonas in and Frederick out.

 

[Powerage]

If Dixon comes back, I’d play him as a 2nd ruck, swapping off the bench… keep the forward line as it is.

So you get our best power forward, and the most prolific contested mark in the competition back into forward line shape via the riskiest possible path playing him exclusively in the ruck?

 

[Arsene Wenger]

Will need him this week champ

No we dont. Jonas doesnt play on talls anymore. In fact he doesnt play on smalls. He just plain stinks.

 

[ROBBBO]

No we dont. Jonas doesnt play on talls anymore. In fact he doesnt play on smalls. He just plain stinks.

bah the big body will do us no harm, mind you, Lachie Jones possibly offers as much now in that area

 

[True__Believer]

Fantasia is a weapon. Amazing how quickly that is forgotten.

He would be capable of pulling a Monfries type game from a few years back

 

[Arsene Wenger]

bah the big body will do us no harm, mind you, Lachie Jones possibly offers as much now in that area

yeh thats what i reckon mate. Jonas doesnt add a great deal in my opinion anymore.

 

[Del165198]

Fantasia is a weapon. Amazing how quickly that is forgotten.

he had a blinder last year in the final against geelong and kicked 4.1

they don't really have a good matchup for him.

 

[Andre]

No we dont. Jonas doesnt play on talls anymore. In fact he doesnt play on smalls. He just plain stinks.

Jonas has always been overrated on this board IMO, but even given that he'd struggle get a game as a KPD in almost any other side. Old, slow, short, possibly the most predictably bad kick out in the league. Shouldn't be Captain and even with Pasini out I wouldn't play him, he's gone downhill that much.

 

[Coobk001]

Dixon on Ch10 tonight basically ruled himself out. Sounds like he will play SANFL.

If we aren't hit by covid this week, with all the returning players we have, the SANFL team will look extremely strong.