Preview Changes Round 10 vs Carlton

[Foxman98]

With Voss now sacked probably the week to rest Bont up seeing as we are going to lose anyway

 

[Doggy]

With Voss now sacked probably the week to rest Bont up seeing as we are going to lose anyway

Perfect attitude, well done.

Scared of a side who has won 1 game, against Richmond by 4 points.

 

[Foxman98]

Perfect attitude, well done.

Scared of a side who has won 1 game, against Richmond by 4 points.

Their percentage is actually very good and have been in most of their games until the last quater

Now they have the added emotion of no Voss they will finish the game out

Bont is clearly not right and needs the week off win the war not the battle

 

[Doggy]

Their percentage is actually very good and have been in most of their games until the last quater

Now they have the added emotion of no Voss they will finish the game out

Bont is clearly not right and needs the week off win the war not the battle

Yeah, a game against a team who has won 1 game isn't one we should be looking to win.... lets let this one go, big bad Carlton is so terrifying.

If we lose it's not because they can suddenly actually play a full game because Voss is gone

 

[House_of_Dahl]

In the 18-team era, it's happened 17 times (18 games though, if you count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019)...

View attachment 2608861
R = result, M = margin, T - LP = team's ladder position going into that round, O - LP = opposition's ladder position going into that round.

Overall in that period, it's 8 wins and 10 losses for the caretaker/outgoing coach, with 4 of those 8 wins considered major upsets (against top 8 teams).

In terms of opponents in caretaker games, it's...

4x Western Bulldogs*
3x Brisbane
2x Port Adelaide, Richmond, St. Kilda
1x Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast
0x Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne

*3x for the Western Bulldogs, if you DON'T count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019.
*I believe the table is correct, although I haven't double-checked it in a while, so there could be some errors. Spotted one already, should be Goodwin instead of King for Melbourne in 2025.
*The table only includes coaches who resigned or were sacked, it does not include Phil Walsh in 2015 or James Hird in 2013.

Some stats:

• Since 2001, there have been 26 coaches sacked mid-season (Rodney Eade in 2011 being our only one).
• Following the sacking, the team with caretaker coach in charge won the next match 12 times and lost 14 times.
• We have been the 'next up' team on 5 of 26 occasions (with a 6th occasion to come this weekend), following the sackings of Goodwin (2025), Richardson (2019), Williams (2010), Laidley (2009), Blight (2001) and now Voss (2026). We won all but one of those 5 games, being the loss to St Kilda in 2019.
• Of other clubs to be 'next up', Brisbane, Port, Richmond and St Kilda have had this honour 3 times each, Carlton twice, and Adelaide, Fremantle, GC, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney and West coast one. Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North have not been next up over that period.
• Since 2001, Melbourne have sacked the most coaches mid-season (4), followed by Carlton, Fremantle and North (3 each), then GC, Port and St Kilda (2 each), and Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and WB (1 each). Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS have not sacked any coach mid-season in that period.

In summary, yes since 2001 we are significantly over-represented, but fear not as our winning record against teams who have just sacked the coach (80%) is much higher than the average (54%).

Interesting this does back up the feeling that we always seem to go up against the dead coach bounce teams, but also that it shouldn't worry us too much as we usually win

 

[Doggy]

With the latest injury report and list, seems likely we don't get anyone back this week. I guess maybe next week.

 

[geoffjennings79]

the dead coach bounce

I know the Blues are (or used to be!) ruthless, but that's a bit extreme!

 

[DueWest]

With the latest injury report and list, seems likely we don't get anyone back this week. I guess maybe next week.

Hopefully Tim only misses one game and we get back at least on of Lobb or ODonnell for Dee’s.

 

[Doggy]

Hopefully Tim only misses one game and we get back at least on of Lobb or ODonnell for Dee’s.

Yes that is the hope

 

[BigFloppa]

Their percentage is actually very good and have been in most of their games until the last quater

Now they have the added emotion of no Voss they will finish the game out

Bont is clearly not right and needs the week off win the war not the battle

Agree with this. Why risk further injury to Bont in an unwinnable game? Play the kids and reload for the following week with Bont freshened up a bit. Might even get English, Lobb, Odonnel back too. Wouldn't that be something?

 

[Doggy]

Agree with this. Why risk further injury to Bont in an unwinnable game? Play the kids and reload for the following week with Bont freshened up a bit. Might even get English, Lobb, Odonnel back too. Wouldn't that be something?

Is this the view of the other Midwives too?

 

[Libbaaaa]

Agree with this. Why risk further injury to Bont in an unwinnable game? Play the kids and reload for the following week with Bont freshened up a bit. Might even get English, Lobb, Odonnel back too. Wouldn't that be something?

The Carlton game is now unwinnable?

 

[BigFloppa]

The Carlton game is now unwinnable?

Every true Dogs supporter knows we are losing this one

 

[BrisDog]

Can’t see any bunch of blokes running through brick walls for Josh f**king Fraser

 

[mookieb]

Not many teams win the following week after a sacking a coach mid season. People can think that it makes the team play better but the records show this isn't the case.

This is not correct. Teams sack their coach because they're generally playing terribly, so in most cases they aren't favoured to win with or without a new coach. Results for teams against the line (which is +13.5 Carl) are very strongly in favour of the team sacking their coach. Of course there have been some big upsets as well. So my expectation will be that the Blues come out and outperform expectations.

The problem for WB is the above combined with losing English. It hurts your structure and adds to the quality players out and the large number of depth players already getting a game.

 

[Doggy]

This is not correct. Teams sack their coach because they're generally playing terribly, so in most cases they aren't favoured to win with or without a new coach. Results for teams against the line (which is +13.5 Carl) are very strongly in favour of the team sacking their coach. Of course there have been some big upsets as well. So my expectation will be that the Blues come out and outperform expectations.

The problem for WB is the above combined with losing English. It hurts your structure and adds to the quality players out and the large number of depth players already getting a game.

Yeah, we should probably give up before playing a side who has won 1 game against Richmond by 4 points.

Go have another bet on it.

 

[bresker]

Josh

Can’t see any bunch of blokes running through brick walls for Josh f**king Fraser

He's another Collingwood plant like Malthouse . A sleeper agent . Snake in the grass.

Don't listen to BigFloppa and those types.

We will canter

Bont to get 31+ possies and 2 goals +

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I thought I heard that it was announced before the Lions game that he is gone, that’s why they tried so hard and still lost.

 

[Mofra]

Can’t see any bunch of blokes running through brick walls for Josh f**king Fraser

On the bright side, Carlton get to add another former no 1 pick to their next marketing poster

 

[Libbaaaa]

Vossy would have already told them at half time he was done last week, hence the 2nd half boost.

 

[mookieb]

Yeah, we should probably give up before playing a side who has won 1 game against Richmond by 4 points.

Go have another bet on it.

I'm not saying that you won't win. I'm just stating that teams replacing their coach get a bump in performance.

Carl aren't actually that bad if you consider that they've thrown away multiple games that they were winning relatively easily before choking late.

WB record since losing all your key players is horrible and now English is out again.

 

[Dog 36]

Regarding Voss this week and the impact on the game

• It is Tuesday so nothing should be a surprise to the Dogs. Yes a little sugar hit for Blues but its not as though Dogs are unaware
• If you were winning this game prior to Voss departure it is still the case. If we want to be the side we claim to be the Voss departure should have no bearing.
• Control and get right what you can the rest will look after itself.

 

[Sentinel]

 

[Doggy]

This you ?

I'm also not arguing with anyone saying Carlton is going to win. They may win they may not. What I'm saying is that replacing the coach generally has a significant positive impact and coupled with English missing means it's likely Carl cover the +13.5 line.

The more facts you have the better you can set your expectations for the game.

Post #76... "I'm betting on Carlton", and you keep stating it too.

Noone gives a rat's tossbag.

 

[DognBones]

Assuming that no player is returning from injury:
Out: English, Gallagher
In: Jaques, Emmett (to be used sparingly as a back up ruck, mostly forward)
Croft not chosen because he's been way out of form this season and will need to rebuild his game in the VFL for some time.