Preview Changes Round 10 vs Carlton

[Libba39]

This is the kind of game where McGovern will earn Majak status

 

[Westerndog11]

This you ?

I'm also not arguing with anyone saying Carlton is going to win. They may win they may not. What I'm saying is that replacing the coach generally has a significant positive impact and coupled with English missing means it's likely Carl cover the +13.5 line.

The more facts you have the better you can set your expectations for the game.

Unless data has significantly changed the last I checked clubs are 7 wins to 8 losses in games immediately after a coach is sacked. Unless you’re referring to a teams overall performance compared to their preceding weeks and not the end result. I don’t think there is any higher likelihood of Carlton winning the game than normal. That is accurate as of the 10th of July 2024. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1168648...rk-upset-over-brisbane-lions/amp?webview=true

 

[Doggy]

Unless data has significantly changed the last I checked clubs are 7 wins to 8 losses in games immediately after a coach is sacked. Unless you’re referring to a teams overall performance compared to their preceding weeks and not the end result. I don’t think there is any higher likelihood of Carlton winning the game than normal. That is accurate as of the 10th of July 2024. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1168648...rk-upset-over-brisbane-lions/amp?webview=true

Let him load up on Carltank .. he has been in here telling us they're going to win and somehow isn't trolling while telling us how shit the dogs have been.

Hopefully he loses a bomb

 

[BEaston]

Unless data has significantly changed the last I checked clubs are 7 wins to 8 losses in games immediately after a coach is sacked. Unless you’re referring to a teams overall performance compared to their preceding weeks and not the end result. I don’t think there is any higher likelihood of Carlton winning the game than normal. That is accurate as of the 10th of July 2024. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1168648...rk-upset-over-brisbane-lions/amp?webview=true

Covering the betting line would be a much better indicator than pure W/L, which I assume mookie would be using.

 

[Oliver G]

Unless data has significantly changed the last I checked clubs are 7 wins to 8 losses in games immediately after a coach is sacked. Unless you’re referring to a teams overall performance compared to their preceding weeks and not the end result. I don’t think there is any higher likelihood of Carlton winning the game than normal. That is accurate as of the 10th of July 2024. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1168648...rk-upset-over-brisbane-lions/amp?webview=true

In the 18 team era, it's 8 wins to 10 losses or 7 wins to 10 losses, depending on which way you slice it. 4 of those wins would be considered "major" upsets, with a top 8 team losing...

In the 18-team era, it's happened 17 times (18 games though, if you count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019)...

View attachment 2609629
R = result, M = margin, T - LP = team's ladder position going into that round, O - LP = opposition's ladder position going into that round.

Overall in that period, it's 8 wins and 10 losses for the caretaker/outgoing coach, with 4 of those 8 wins considered major upsets (against top 8 teams).

In terms of opponents in caretaker games, it's...

4x Western Bulldogs*
3x Brisbane
2x Port Adelaide, Richmond, St. Kilda
1x Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast
0x Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne

*3x for the Western Bulldogs, if you DON'T count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019.
*The table only includes coaches who resigned or were sacked, it does not include Phil Walsh in 2015 or James Hird in 2013 for example.

 

[Zeno The Great]

From talk at the player sponsor function last night lobb is a chance to return this week, but O'Donnell few weeks away.

 

[Doggy]

From talk at the player sponsor function last night lobb is a chance to return this week, but O'Donnell few weeks away.

Weird... someone said JOD told Fox at the Fremantle game he was aiming for this week..

 

[maddog37]

Not sure mookieb is a troll, posts a lot about punting on games, and stated clearly why he's posting here.

May not be a troll but is a hawks fan so he can tell his ****ing story walking.

 

[grassman75]

Carlton only have won a single game this year . TBF i think they're better than this, not much, but a bit better.

If Bev puts even a modicum, a mere soupçon of tagging work into Walsh and/or Cripps. I can't see how they win this one. A tagging bagatelle.

They only won because Tom Lynch couldn’t hit the side of a barn door too. This is the ultimate test of the dead coach bounce

 

[Werewolf]

Bevo's biggest win over Carlton is 36 points, way back in 2016. That's his smallest biggest winning margin over any opponent.

Yep he even beat Sydney and Geelong by greater margins in 2024!

That's in our "Golden era" (by Bulldogs standards) and despite Carlton's struggles during most of his tenure.

 

[Dazb86]

Bevo's biggest win over Carlton is 36 points, way back in 2016. That's his smallest biggest winning margin over any opponent.

Yep he even beat Sydney and Geelong by greater margins in 2024!

That's in our "Golden era" (by Bulldogs standards) and despite Carlton's struggles during most of his tenure.

Refusal to tag would be a major reason for that.

Cripps has killed us singlehandedly a few times iver the journey.

 

[bobs head soup]

Bevo's biggest win over Carlton is 36 points, way back in 2016. That's his smallest biggest winning margin over any opponent.

Yep he even beat Sydney and Geelong by greater margins in 2024!

That's in our "Golden era" (by Bulldogs standards) and despite Carlton's struggles during most of his tenure.

On the other hand, our Bevo era record vs Carlton is 10-3.

Don't really mind winning ugly. Just get those 4 points.

 

[geoffjennings79]

What we should fear (or trepidate?!) most this week is Lewis Young

33

Lewis Young

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

197.9

3star

D

4.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

1.0

1star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

26.0

1star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.2

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.0

4star

MG

181.6

3star

's insider info. Have heard Josh Fraser

Josh Fraser

Age

44

Ht

202cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.4

4star

CL

2.5

4star

HO

11.8

5star

No current season stats available

D

9.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

2.8

3star

HO

8.6

5star

will use Young as an onfield assistant coach, pre-empting all of Bevo's moves. Luckily we have Chugga Kennedy to pre-pre-empt those. Then they have Ash Hansen to counteract the pre-pre-empting... game could be a stalemate, nil-all draw!

 

[low impact and reckless]

What we should fear (or trepidate?!) most this week is Lewis Young's insider info. Have heard Josh Fraser will use Young as an onfield assistant coach, pre-empting all of Bevo's moves. Luckily we have Chugga Kennedy to pre-pre-empt those. Then they have Ash Hansen to counteract the pre-pre-empting... game could be a stalemate, nil-all draw!

You should be banned for using the word tre*#$ation on the board. Nightmares.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Refusal to tag would be a major reason for that.

Cripps has killed us singlehandedly a few times iver the journey.

But we now have the competition's premier run- with player - Riley Sanders!

 

[Mofra]

Refusal to tag would be a major reason for that.

Cripps has killed us singlehandedly a few times iver the journey.

Dunkley has been sent to Cripps more than once

 

[Outback Footy]

Can see us losing this. No Timmeee.
Lobster back would help, but will it be enough?

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Dunkley has been sent to Cripps more than once

Brisbane Dunkley definitely. Not sure Dogs Dunkley did it

We did it with Bailey Smith in 2023 and it seemed to work well (went head to head with Laird too) but then he was banished from the midfield for some reason

 

[Anja_Nees]

So this proves the conspiracy against us but it hasn’t paid off for them

Let’s be generous and assume they say “the Dogs can handle it”.

 

[Anja_Nees]

From talk at the player sponsor function last night lobb is a chance to return this week, but O'Donnell few weeks away.

Someone could have given Lachie Jaques some pointers on how to hold his microphone.

 

[Mojorisin]

Someone could have given Lachie Jaques some pointers on how to hold his microphone.

View attachment 2610215

As a teenager it is probably just muscle memory.

 

[Doggies7]

From talk at the player sponsor function last night lobb is a chance to return this week, but O'Donnell few weeks away.

Damn that's a shame about JOD. Maybe had a little mini setback or just taking a bit longer to heal than expected considering he was saying a week ago that he was expecting to be back against the Blues. Looking like a 6-7 week hammy which is a bad one considering it wasn't tendon or anything (from all reports).

 

[Optimistic Dog]

The next 3 weeks, blues, dees and pies I believe will define our season. We need to win all of them before facing a loss to the hawks. Just need to find a way this week with no rucks. Hopefully Bonts injuries are getting better, and he can be even more devastating.

If we can get to 8 wins 4 losses without playing the tigers and WCE we should be playing true finals top 8 but really need enough wins for top 6 to avoid the stupid top 10 first week.

 

[Sid Nullis]

Called into training today and if I was a punting man I would put my money on Lobb being in for Tim. Noticed Coffield went off with a niggle but came back out, can’t say he was moving that freely. JOD doesn’t look that far away either. The player that caught my eye was flea. He was sharp and moving freely. Easy to forget how athletic he is.

 

[Zgope1]

No journos asked about Lobb today.

Unless he is a surprise in though I think we might just roll with Smith and tank the second ruck.


Bevo admitted Emmett isn’t ready to ruck yet