Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[dogs105]

Stats sheet says he laid 4 tackles. The same number as Seedsman. Only Douglas, Thompson, Lyons and Brown laid more tackles.

Yet people love to perpetuate this myth that he gets ragdolled and can't tackle.

Yep. He gets rag-dolled quite a bit, but does stick some tackles too. Great intent to attempt so many tackles.

 

[Vader]

Mackay gets selected because we lack players of his type. Stylistically he's exactly what we need- a hard running outside player in a sea of slow inside types. Ability wise he is very ordinary. He's been dropped twice this year- suggests to me he's picked around the 20+ mark if we were to use a vader-esque pecking order. Players like knight, Hampton and Menzel that might replace him have all been injured.

Actually, he's only been dropped once this year, missing the R18 game against Geelong. According to the club he was being "managed" (which is usually code for rested). Whether you choose to believe them or not is entirely up to you (I'd take it with a grain of salt).

His other absence, from R8-11, was injury related. Not due to him being dropped.

 

[Vader]

Hey now, lets not get carried away. VB had 1 possession in a half against GWS (6 total). It does not get worse than that.

It can and does get worse than that. McGovern's game against Geelong was worse. 1 kick, 1 handball, 2 frees against. The kick went out of bounds on the full. That's worse.

 

[dogs105]

It can and does get worse than that. McGovern's game against Geelong was worse. 1 kick, 1 handball, 2 frees against. The kick went out of bounds on the full. That's worse.

To be fair, that's also like saying Syphilis is worse than Chlamydia

 

[TAFKATMS]

It can and does get worse than that. McGovern's game against Geelong was worse. 1 kick, 1 handball, 2 frees against. The kick went out of bounds on the full. That's worse.

And bounced back and impacted the next game in a way that Mackay or VB has not since 2009. And he's a first year player.

 

[dogs105]

And bounced back and impacted the next game in a way that Mackay has not since 2009. And he's a first year player.

Do you have any thoughts on who deserves to play for Thommo? Thanks.

 

[Vader]

And bounced back and impacted the next game in a way that Mackay or VB has not since 2009. And he's a first year player.

He definitely repaid the selectors' faith in the Essendon game. Easily the best of his career to date.

 

[TAFKATMS]

Do you have any thoughts on who deserves to play for Thommo? Thanks.

Ellis Yolmen in my opinion deserves to come in if it's like for like.

 

[dogs105]

Ellis Yolmen in my opinion deserves to come in if it's like for like.

I watched the SANFL on the weekend (only on TV) and he looked awesome. One moment when he took the ball, and was hemmed in, so he barreled through the would-be tackler!!

 

[TAFKATMS]

I watched the SANFL on the weekend (only on TV) and he looked awesome. One moment when he took the ball, and was hemmed in, so he barreled through the would-be tackler!!

He's playing great football and can count himself unlucky that he hasn't had a shot this year on account of the team winning and having a great injury run.

Good chance for the Magarey too.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

History will prove Mackay to be a good player, or history will prove that he continues to be selected?

That the coaches select him is not an argument for his selection. Otherwise you would have us believe the coaches, when sitting around the table deciding who is in and who is out, look at each other and shrug. "Well we picked him last week". No of course you don't believe that, it's nonsense.

So instead, I'd like to know what positive attributes Mackay brings to the table. How does he provide more than, say, Wigg? Or Milera? What is he doing better on a more consistent basis that allows him to be selected ahead of two players most here think have as much, if not more talent. Not to mention half the span of a career left on their side.

Honestly, not trying to provoke you when I say that so far I've only ever seen you allude to a post I haven't seen.

Regarding Mackay v Milera v Wigg ....it's not a comparison of who's better
They have different roles, different attributes and different levels of experience

Milera IMO is going to be a champion, which Mackay is obviously not ...... But I've said the team is already inexperienced, and so how much more do you introduce without systems breaking down in finals

Wigg could also be a good player, but he's not a Mackay link player type - Milera is probably closest to what Mackay brings & is his obvious replacement at some stage

 

[crows dude]

In - CEY or Grigg, Walker
Out - Thompson Rested, Jacobs Injured

 

[jackster83]

With ROB playing, Jenkins will probably have to ruck more than when Jacobs is playing.

Don't think we'll drop anyone with the reserves team having a bye.

Talia has been well beaten the last two games. Due for a rest?

 

[ad victoriam]

I know i will be attacked for this, but some of you need to look closer at games and even closer on the replays,
This will be in 2 parts so I can get attacked evenly.
That not satistical stat most rubbished was highlighted sevral times on SUN,
Eddie does it very well, Douglas and Thommo are the best at it.
How many times did you see Essendon with a 3 on 1 or 2 on 1 and Douglas kept the ball in until help or an umpire arrived, Nil stat. and it was not once he did that, He does this every week even when playing bad, What how many times these players reach into a tackle an move the ball stop the opposition from getting clean ball.
The younger player don't do that, that is learnt from football experience/age, and is finals type play look at Mitchel and Hodge closer when they don't get ball they make it harder for the rest to get it.
No team win finals and grand finals without a good balance of age and skills. No team. And it the pressure acts the non statically stats that are the difference in close games.

Think about the full role before finding a replacement.

 

[ad victoriam]

Now Mackay
One reason Mackay get more game time than most think he should is versatility, He one of the few player that can play back forward and wing with pace in the side, He can go total defence and scarfice his game, play running defender, or move to bruise free wing roles play defensive forward or at times in the pass small forward, he had run as inside mid and outside mid. And there is not too many games where he play and stays in the same role. Only positions he has not played is any position with tall in it.
Sunday he was moved back deeper when Brown struggled for a while to give extra run, One thing missing when they played Geelong
Main problem is the Crows do not have too many player that are that versatile in the squad. Finding One for one with MacKay is hard.
And he can tackle But you must remember he is a light weight.
Again think about the full role before looking at who is better.

 

[xazos79]

Jj too...

Never in our history have we had a team with so many that can shoot from outside 50m. It's an awesome capability for a side to have.

 

[xazos79]

Agreed, disappointing season from a player we really needed to step up and play his best in the midfield. Deserved to be dropped 4-8 weeks ago, but the last few his forward line play has been good and there's currently no better options. Next year if hope he's fighting with Menzel, Milera and Knight for his spot.

Dougy is definitely keeping the seat warm for Menzel when (if?) he finds form. Menz is a natural small/medium forward.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Out - Thommo
In - Grigg, Wigg or someone Big?

CEY - I think that the performance of CEY in the SANFL is underrated by some. He isn't super quick but is at least as quick as Thommo, Matty Crouch and Lyons. His kicking appears awkward but his disposal efficiency is as good as our other inside mids. He definitely deserves a chance this week and if he plays I expect his output would be similar to Thommo in recent weeks.

Wigg - Has been transformed from a small defender/outside mid to an inside mid this year. I think he is a better fit for our midfield if Thommo is not playing. I would like to see him spend some time as an outside mid because this is not our strong suit. Mackay, Seedsman and Atkins have been good on occasions but it is hardly one of the strengths of our team. I have a sneaky feeling that THE MAESTRO will give him a run this week and see what he has to offer. It might also provide an opportunity for THE RAT to spend more time on the inside.

Grigg - Hopefully he stays away from trampolines this week. He has a more penetrating kick than CEY or Wigg (for those that haven't seen Wigg, think of a slightly longer kicking Luke Power. Neat and efficient but doesn't break the lines). IMHO Grigg lacks the strength of CEY as an inside mid and lacks the speed of Harry. I will be surprised if he gets a call up but I expect him to be as good as our other "bottom four" players if he is given a chance.

Out - Mackay?

I wasted another 2 hours this week watching the Essendon replay. At the game I notice all the DMac mistakes (missing easy goals, not sticking tackles, being concussed by a gentle breeze). On the replay I notice Bran Nue Mackae. His strength (similar to Hendo) is that he knows where to go and is often the release player out the back of stoppages and loose balls in the D50. His handballing was pretty good on the weekend and while you can argue that he (and Hendo) get soft possessions, it is important to our game plan that our outside mids play this role.

I still think it is a coin toss between Mackay, Seedsman and Henderson and I lament the absence of Riley Knight and the injuries to Menzel and Hampton.

I might be in the minority that thinks grigg's kick is overrated

He misses a lot more than he should given he appears a good kick and especially under pressure - a bit like bonner in his draft year

Wigg is a much better kick and I think his kick can pierce and also get over zones and is much more reliable

 

[xazos79]

Stats sheet says he laid 4 tackles. The same number as Seedsman. Only Douglas, Thompson, Lyons and Brown laid more tackles.

Yet people love to perpetuate this myth that he gets ragdolled and can't tackle.

If we further qualify the tackle stat with "effective tackles", i certainly know who wouldn't be in the top 20 of the playing group.

Edit: well i've been schooled on the definition of tackles.... but there isn't an "ineffective tackle" stat is there?

 

[Mattrox]

If we further qualify the tackle stat with "effective tackles", i certainly know who wouldn't be in the top 20 of the playing group.

Ineffective tackles are not counted. The tackle stat IS effective tackles. Champion Data keeps track of tackle attempts too, but this is not reported in the media.

Surprised how often this comes up.

 

[dogs105]

If we further qualify the tackle stat with "effective tackles", i certainly know who wouldn't be in the top 20 of the playing group.

Tackles have to be effective to be counted as tackles by CD. This is debated every few weeks.

 

[Vader]

If we further qualify the tackle stat with "effective tackles", i certainly know who wouldn't be in the top 20 of the playing group.

Stats sheet only records effective tackles. You would be wrong.

 

[jenny61_99]

You do realise that the 2nd (potential) debutant in question was Wigg, not CEY? Nobody is re-writing history. You, on the other hand, seem determined to create a strawman argument to discredit posters you don't particular like.

I swear to god this is THE most over stated phrase on this forum.

 

[azza77]

We can't just go on a resting spree so close to finals, that's not very smart management. If Tex is fit this week he comes in. If Sauce is fit next week he plays. Sandilands will be playing next week so if Sauce is fit he doesn't get rested. Sloane and Betts have never needed rests over their careers so I don't see the point there. Neither have been injured all year.

We need to get our percentage up and up and up because it will be vital by round 23. resting players and weakening our team for the hell of it won't help our percentage.

A resting spree? What resting spree?

Tex and Sauce were injured and so were taken out of the team accordingly. They are 2 of our most important players and so need to be at 100%. I dont care if Tex is at 97% fitness for this week, he still doesn't play for mine. There is absolutely 0 reason to field him against ****ing Brisbane... Thommo is 34 and needs to be managed. He's also slow and unaccountable but the club refuses to see that, so for now at least we get to see the midfield with a bit of a shake up.

So we have rested 1 x 34 year old, with 2 injured players coming out as they should. Resting spree hey?

I only mentioned resting ONE of Sloane or Betts mainly because they do an absolute mountain of work each and every week. Sloane carries our midfield and Betts is probably our most used target going inside 50. Who knows what sort of knock or soreness these guys could be playing with, we dont have information to that. Betts is 29 now and has barely missed a game for us, meanwhile I've noticed that Sloane has been wearing shoulder tape from the midpoint of the season onwards.

It honestly would do the club 0 harm in leaving one of Sloane/Betts at home for the Perth trip, the result is still going to be the same.

 

[MRB37]

With ROB playing, Jenkins will probably have to ruck more than when Jacobs is playing.

Don't think we'll drop anyone with the reserves team having a bye.

Talia has been well beaten the last two games. Due for a rest?

Wouldn't rest Talia against the Lions. They're young, but they have more than a few tall blokes like Schache, Hipwood and Close, as well as Walker, who are 196cm+ and will likely have 3 of 'em in the side.

Sounds like Stef Martin won't be playing, which might be good news for ROB, but Archie Smith has a hell of a leap on him, so ROB will need to make sure he gets physical and doesn't allow him to use it to his advantage too much.