NCAA College Football off-season 22 thread

[AJ_2000]

Time to get an off season thread moving.... Let's start with the end of the PAC 12

USC and UCLA rock college sports by leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten

USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, a shift that will move college football's 'Power Five' closer to a 'Power Two.'

www.latimes.com

USC and UCLA are off to join the Big10.

 

[thewizardmelon]

It's been a while since had a shake up of the landscape. Might curious to watch this one unfold.

 

[AJ_2000]

The Big12 sort of rebounded after the SEC land grab. But now it's interesting to see what happens next. Will the ACC make plays? Or will Oregon or Washington bale out?

 

[Dirty Bird]

I dont believe it's the end of the Pac-12.

I see 1 of 2 paths eventuating.

1) ACC looks at the SEC/BigTen and expands to 16 themselves. Taking 2 teams (I'd say 2 of West Virginia/Cincinnati/Oklahoma State) from the BigXII. Taking 2 schools from the next tier of the BigXII puts them on their knees, and the Pac-12 steals 4 teams (TCU, Baylor, Kansas and one of Oklahoma State/Kansas State). BYU sees the sinking ship and goes back to being independent. This leaves Houston/UCF/Iowa State and the remaining one of Kansas State/Cincinnati with no home.

They would either
a) Rebuild the Big XII making it the true best of the rest (though, doing this might entice BYU to stay, but I doubt it) 8-11 schools from the G5.
b) Throw in the towel and all go to the AAC. (Which I'd put my money on)

2) The ACC doesnt attempt or doesn't manage to entice a BigXII school over. Pac-12 is stronger at football, and Big XII is stronger at basketball, but both hold their own in the other. Can't poach each other (especially with buyouts. Not worth it between each other tbh. Especially to be an outlier increasing travel costs for no extra gain). So the Pac-12 is forced to expand from the MWC. Issue being. Well, Stanford. They like to view the Pac-12 as the Ivy League of the west. They wouldn't let in, well, just about any of the remaining MWC schools. So we're at a crossroads. Does Stanford make the Pac-12 the Pac-10 again potentially locking them out of the CFP. Or do they bite the bullet and allow the Pac-12 to potentially improve. I think Oregon/Washington/Arizona Schools win out and push for expansion from the MWC as they'd need to to stay relevant. In comes San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV and either BYU (I know I said BigXII schools wouldn't see it worth it. But if any would, it's BYU). If BYU stays BigXII, it'd either be Hawai'i (If they can get a good stadium struck) or Colorado State.

Either we'll see the MWC on its knees and probably backfilling from FCS, or it leads to the death of the Big XII. Really can't see the Pac-12 losing out.

I just pray the ACC doesn't expand. If they do. I feel Boise State is destined to the MWC. If they dont. I think we might actually manage to get into the Pac-12.

 

[AJ_2000]

Plus what happened to the handshake agreement between the alliance of ACC Big10 and Big12

 

[Dirty Bird]

The Big12 sort of rebounded after the SEC land grab. But now it's interesting to see what happens next. Will the ACC make plays? Or will Oregon or Washington bale out?

Where would Oregon/Washington go to?

If the BigTen was an option, they'd be making the jump today too. And they gain nothing going to the Big XII.

ACC is the big one. They actually currently have a smaller tv deal than the BigXII ($17M each vs $20M each) however, the BigXII deal expires after 2025 (ACC runs through 2036, however, might get renegotiated with 2 new schools?). How much will it drop without Texas/Oklahoma? Enough to make it worth jumping to the ACC?

Pac-12 is going to survive either way. It's just whether the BigXII dies, or the MWC gets gutted.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Plus what happened to the handshake agreement between the alliance of ACC Big10 and Big12

Maybe that's why they poached the Pac-12?

I also wonder if this could have an effect on the Rose Bowl.

 

[AJ_2000]

Maybe that's why they poached the Pac-12?

I also wonder if this could have an effect on the Rose Bowl.

USC v Oregon Rose Bowl

 

[aussiedude]

The end game is 2 super conferences. Oregon, Washington and Stanford will end up in the Big10. Cal might because of the ties to UCLA and Stanford. Boise will get an offer with some of the other MW schools.

ACC already has some schools people are saying have talked about moving to the Big10.

Big10 will end up with 4 divisions and will have a championship weekend in mid-Dec where its really Semis. the Big10 title game will be the Rose Bowl and CFP playoffs will move a week later.

SEC will do the same but will use Sugar Bowl as its title game.

Where Arizona schools and Wash St/Oregon State i dont know might end up in some remainder of the Pac/Big12/MW as the 3rd conference which will be looked down at and somewhere between the Major 2 and Group of 5.

Pac-12 f**ked this up when they failed to get Oklahoma/OK St and Texas last go around and turned down Boise on academics.

 

[aussiedude]

the biggest concern will be what happens to "Olympic" sports because the money needed to fly cross country all the time will be hard to find even. because Mens/Womens basketball and Football will have the costs go up.

Some schools will drop them

 

[aussiedude]

Virginia, North Carolina and Florida State could be next.

 

[aussiedude]

State schools could end up being left behind.

 

[aussiedude]

 

[Dirty Bird]

If we do get mega-conferences (BigTen/SEC going to 20-24 each)
I wonder if it'll actually ruin it for everyone.

If you treat it as 2 conferences with their own playoffs leading to the championship. Why would anyone watch anything else.

If you lock out everyone else from the playoff, why would anyone else care about your games?
And even on a lower level. if the BigTen and SEC are separate but equal. Why even look at the other conference at all. It has no effect on you making the BigTen playoff.

I honestly feel like the conference structure pre-Texas/Oklahoma moving was as close to ideal as we could've had.
But if we go to 2 mega-conferences. It reaches a tipping point which I feel will destroy interest in the sport and could be the death blow to college athletics.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Some interesting talk I'm seeing

If the BigTen can jump in and take Washington/Oregon/Stanford/Colorado too
The Pac-12 would be close to dying, and Arizona/Arizona State/Utah and surprisingly Boise State could come in and solidify the BigXII

So that leaves Oregon State, Washington State and Cal?
Yeah, I better not get excited. BigXII would probably take Cal instead

BUT - There's also rumours of KANSAS going Big East and then sending football indy. So there's that?

End of the day. These moves are killing my interest in college football. Texas/Oklahoma at least made partial sense. UCLA/USC make next to none and is putting me on the edge. If more jumping happens (more so, Pac-12 implosion) I'm not sure if I could keep following the sport. Ill give it a go. But I can't guarantee it.

 

[aussiedude]

I think thats kinda the point. its ESPN (SEC) Vs Fox (BIG10). its about mostly football and its going to kill anyone not in those 2 conferences.

It will then lead to them breaking away and forming their own league where its SEC Vs Big10 like the old AFL V NFL or AFC Vs NFC

 

[aussiedude]

USC leaving is the biggest move ever. its like Ohio St leaving the Big10.

Its far bigger than Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I think thats kinda the point. its ESPN (SEC) Vs Fox (BIG10). its about mostly football and its going to kill anyone not in those 2 conferences.

It will then lead to them breaking away and forming their own league where its SEC Vs Big10 like the old AFL V NFL or AFC Vs NFC

But see - what new fans would it bring in?
Not many imo
But it could alienate current fans.

Seems like it's companies with a short term vision (put these pieces together and money)
Without realising they're alienating fans of 70% of schools, (admittedly, smaller schools, but that could still be 30-40% of their fan base)

I dont believe this would have the return on investment they're hoping for and could blow up in their faces.

 

[aussiedude]

I didnt see this coming. i knew that we were heading towards 2 or 3 main conferences but i expected the Pac to be the 3rd. going back a year or so there was some talks between the Pac-12 and ACC about teams joining when the Texas/Oklahoma news broke.

and i thought the Pac would be the 3rd conference because of the west coast and the tech companies there having some links to them.
With the news of USC and UCLA going to the big10. Apple is again interested in T3 rights going up against ESPN, Amazon and NBC. Fox already has T1 rights for them and ESPN/CBS are bidding to get T2

 

[aussiedude]

But see - what new fans would it bring in?
Not many imo
But it could alienate current fans.

Seems like it's companies with a short term vision (put these pieces together and money)
Without realising they're alienating fans of 70% of schools, (admittedly, smaller schools, but that could still be 30-40% of their fan base)

I dont believe this would have the return on investment they're hoping for and could blow up in their faces.

Its a very short sited move. run by the Networks and people who want money now.

NCAA is now on its death bed. Olympic sports in America will die off and these conferences will be run as a business. i would expect that some of them will break sports away from the education as soon as they have the power to overthrow the NCAA or form a new league.

it will work for 5-10 years but long term its a poison pill.

 

[AJ_2000]

I didnt see this coming. i knew that we were heading towards 2 or 3 main conferences but i expected the Pac to be the 3rd. going back a year or so there was some talks between the Pac-12 and ACC about teams joining when the Texas/Oklahoma news broke.

and i thought the Pac would be the 3rd conference because of the west coast and the tech companies there having some links to them.
With the news of USC and UCLA going to the big10. Apple is again interested in T3 rights going up against ESPN, Amazon and NBC. Fox already has T1 rights for them and ESPN/CBS are bidding to get T2

I was stunned to hear this news today, along with the Watson hearing and KD trade request.. it's been a big day and we're only just passed lunchtime.

 

[flamethrower]

Notre Dame are the interesting watch now. What do they do with their football program, with their strong desire to remain independent. (Their other sports apart from ice hockey (BIG10) are contractually tied to the ACC).

Do they finally cave in and join the new BIG10 super conference? Do they follow their basketball program to the ACC? Or do they remain independent with the NCAA retaining a mechanism for teams outside the BIG10 and SEC super conferences to qualify for the college football play-offs.

The Sporting News Article Considers Their Options

 

[Dirty Bird]

Notre Dame are the interesting watch now. What do they do with their football program, with their strong desire to remain independent. (Their other sports apart from ice hockey (BIG10) are contractually tied to the ACC).

Do they finally cave in and join the new BIG10 super conference? Do they follow their basketball program to the ACC? Or do they remain independent with the NCAA retaining a mechanism for teams outside the BIG10 and SEC super conferences to qualify for the college football play-offs.

The Sporting News Article Considers Their Options

I saw an article (before news of Washington/Oregon/Stanford looking at moving) that stated the Pac-12 should look at 4 teams to join
1) Boise State (Like Stanford would ever allow that)
2) Fresno State (What do they even offer)
3) Notre Dame (Why would they when BigTen is the cultural fit, and the ACC is where they're contractually obliged to go)
4) San Diego State (Numero Uno for what should go to the Pac-12)

2 stupid suggestions (Fresno, Irish), 1 suggestion which doesn't suit the culture (Boise) and 1 good one (San Diego)

 

[aussiedude]

Notre Dame are the interesting watch now. What do they do with their football program, with their strong desire to remain independent. (Their other sports apart from ice hockey (BIG10) are contractually tied to the ACC).

Do they finally cave in and join the new BIG10 super conference? Do they follow their basketball program to the ACC? Or do they remain independent with the NCAA retaining a mechanism for teams outside the BIG10 and SEC super conferences to qualify for the college football play-offs.

The Sporting News Article Considers Their Options

ACC is done. they cant compete with the money from the SEC or new Big10. Big10 will get schools $100m a year. ACC can only offer about half that.

ND will end in the Big10.

Stanford and Washington will be targets for the big10 because they both have billions in science, medicine or tech grants. Oregon will get a invite because of sports and links to Nike.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Money ruins everything. The big networks becoming like the controlling body of collegiate sports