CrowInFiji
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Anyone else notice how many losing Grand Finalists go on to win it the next year? Soooo many.
Collingwood 2019 - Redemption?
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lol
Collingwood choked no more than Hawthorn did in 2012. Bring on the three peat!
Macpotata
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Yes 2019 will be Redemption btw for Collingwood if they go on and win it. 2018 was a great season, they performed exceptionally well and exceeded expectations of many { including me } but nearly isn't good enough FOR the players. The pain and heartache of the loss burns strong, the only thing that will rectify that FOR them, is a premiership.
Collingwood aren't happy and content losing a Grand Final by 5 points. If people can't understand the obvious............
Collingwood aren't happy and content losing a Grand Final by 5 points. If people can't understand the obvious............
Not sure if you are being sarki but in recent times
Hawthorn in 2013
Geelong in 2009
West Coast in 2006
So that is about 1 in 5....which are better odds than the bookies are giving us
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Eddie will be waking up with morning boners now Collingwood are winning games.
The expectations will be high and the pressure palpable.
Let us hope they don't wilt and fall away again.
The expectations will be high and the pressure palpable.
Let us hope they don't wilt and fall away again.
Cringe levels are sky high
CrowInFiji
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Are you suggesting Collingwood is actually anywhere near any of those sides?
Uuuuum, no but we have certainly got some other recent runners up well covered!
Are you strawman deflecting because you original insinuation was proved dead wrong?
CrowInFiji
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How was it wrong? "Redemption" very rarely occurs. As you have so astutely pointed out, it has taken an extraordinarily talented side to do it. Collingwood are not even very talented letalone extraordinarily so.
It won't happen.
The probability is very much that it won't happen. The maths, the 'competition on paper' etc would all suggest Collingwood are not in the boxseat.
Feel free to hold onto your "it's possible!" sentiments - that's true! But it's not at all probable, not even close.
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Actually you might be.
Just those sides climbed to the top of the tree the next year. You're lot haven't yet, but I wouldn't be dismissing the possibility if I was a Pies supporter
Point is that 3 of the most recent 13 runners up went on to win the premiership the next season. To say that losing a grand final makes you less likely to win the next is a stupid comment that is empirically wrong. Over the period I identified, two teams have missed the 8 after finishing runners up - the two adelaide teams. I suspect that might be where the OP's confusion comes from (supporting one of those teams)
I was in no way comparing Collingwood to those teams. At this stage, we have one losing GF next to our name after 4 consecutive September holidays. Those teams were all dynastic teams to varying degrees in part by virtue of their ability to get to consecutive grand finals.
Next season is shaping as a brutally competitive one. As it is, I have a hunch that your club is going to win it. I suspect we will be among half a dozen or so teams contesting it. If our season goes pear shape it will have nothing to do with us losing a GF
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We'll be trying.
I agree it'll be a tough season. I just dont think think a supporter of the Pies, who had a very strong Seotember, should be conceding anything.
Generally I think footy works better when supporters back their clubs.
CrowInFiji
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Odds are very imprecise if that's your source. What do you think the odds said at the start of last season? Collingwood would've had long odds to even make the GF letalone win it. The raw maths tells the real tale for ANY side to even get there on the day.
Are you saying that Richmond, Collingwood, Carlton and Gold Coast are all a 1 in 18 chance to win the flag?
All a 1 in 9 chance to make the Grand Final?
Because that is the 'raw maths'.
CrowInFiji
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It's not my sole point but it is a nice starting point to appreciate just how hard it is to even get to the final match (not even talking about winning the flag). Of course we know Carlton and Richmond aren't equal favourites but the fact that there are 18 teams makes it much harder to make the final match than if there were 6 teams (which is a very good reason to be sceptical of early VFL premierships as an aside). Of course there are a million other factors that you can then draw on including BUT CERTAINLY NOT LIMITED TO (not even close) - squads, fixture, HGA, coaching etc etc. I hope you can see what im trying to say here. If it were not a mammoth task then we would see much less variation in who makes the GF than we have.
There's only been 2 years (1917 and 18 IIRC - due to the war) that the VFL had 6 teams or less, the rest were 8 to 10 from 1897 to 1925, after that it was 12 teams until 1987. So as an aside I don't see a reason to be skeptical.
CrowInFiji
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Then why question my point?
CrowInFiji
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6 was a figure pulled from thin air. The point whether its 4 6 or 8 or even 10. Fewer teams means an easier path to the GF.
Sometimes more teams can make it easier.
Spreading the talent between more teams = not as strong, build a list that is very strong and you are then playing weaker opposition, wouldn't that make it easier?
CrowInFiji
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Were there no salary cap and private ownership of clubs then you may see perpetual success amongst the few ala EPL but I don't think it makes it any easier no. And certainly from the basic maths perspective about which I have been talking certainly not.
Then your maths sucks, more teams = weaker comp.
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